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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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C

cartoon_soldier

Member
AlteredBeast said:
You are right, I was only looking at the polls which meet NYTimes's methodological standards, PPP wasn't on there. Looks like NYT should drop whatever their standards are and adopt those of PPP and pretty much everyone else besides CNN/Time/Opinion Research. :p
Click to expand...

People don't adopt PPP because they have traditionally been a Dem Pollster. But their track record is pretty good (better than Rass. for sure)

PPP in AZ:
Mitt Romney is headed for an overwhelming victory in Arizona's primary on Tuesday. He's at 43% to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Newt Gingrich, and 11% for Ron Paul.
Click to expand...

Final:
Arizona
Republican Presidential PrimaryVIEW DETAILED RESULTS MAP
M. Romney 47.6% 203,823
R. Santorum 26.0% 111,080
N. Gingrich 16.4% 69,983
R. Paul 8.5% 36,268
R. Perry 0.4% 1,804
B. Roemer 0.1%

Also, looks like margin in MI is decreasing.

Romney will end around 41% and Santorum around 38%

PPP's last non-daily poll:
Mitt Romney's taken a small lead over Rick Santorum in PPP's newest Michigan poll. He's at 39% to 37% for Santorum, 13% for Ron Paul, and 9% for Newt Gingrich.
Click to expand...
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
cartoon_soldier said:
People don't adopt PPP because they have traditionally been a Dem Pollster. But their track record is pretty good (better than Rass. for sure)

PPP in AZ:


Final:
Arizona
Republican Presidential PrimaryVIEW DETAILED RESULTS MAP
M. Romney 47.6% 203,823
R. Santorum 26.0% 111,080
N. Gingrich 16.4% 69,983
R. Paul 8.5% 36,268
R. Perry 0.4% 1,804
B. Roemer 0.1%
Click to expand...

Yeah, definitely my mistake. I thought it was strange, considering that most had assumed a 15%+ victory for Romney in Arizona...
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Holy Shit, Daily Show interviewing Grover Norquist

They got Norquist to say he came up with the Tax Pledge idea when he was 12 to brand the Republican Party
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
So, no debate before Super Tuesday, but Huckabee is hosting one of hos forums again on Saturday.

Mr. Huckabee will host his third presidential forum on Saturday, an executive for the Fox News Channel said on Tuesday. So far three candidates, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, have committed. Ron Paul has still not indicated whether he will attend.

The program, which is scheduled from 8 to 10 p.m., will be broadcast from Ohio, the executive said, speaking anonymously because a formal announcement had not been made. ...

During the program, Mr. Huckabee will be joined by Elaine Chao, a labor secretary to George W. Bush and now a Fox News contributor, and three Ohio residents whose lives have been affected by the recession.
Click to expand...
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
Jackson50 is a piker.


--- /// ---


iGJw1MJKin7w5.jpg
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
I believe Romney made a blunder by pulling out of the scheduled debate that was supposed to happen later this week. Romney easily handled Santorum in the last debate and a strong performance could have helped him in Ohio
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I take it you like the tax change idea TA?
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
Couple of notes:

I dont think the fall of Newt has been discussed enough. Guy went from front-runner to losing to Ron Paul in 3 weeks. And I think the major turning point was his moon base speech. Im watching the daily show on 3 week delay, and its been hugely eye-opening. Its amazing to watch the show highlight clips of news people declaring newt/romney a two horse race while watching next be invisible today.



Car sales for February shall be released this Thursday. Will be very interesting. Car sales are usually a good metric of economic growth, because it's a 8 year investment (and by investment, I mean money black hole) that people only make when theyre confident in the future . January was very strong, and Feb also probably started off quite well, especially with presidents day deals.

And then gas went up 25 cents in 7 days.

Will be interesting to see how the market reacts.

My guess? Truck sales will be down a good clip, and wont exceed car sales until September (they beat car sales during 8 months of 2011).

Hybrid/ev/diesel will see increases, but nothing major. Smartcar will see a 10% increase. Feb will still be up YoY but only just, thanks to a strong start.
 
D

David Incorporated Esq.

Member
I'm on a business trip right now and I've been listening to Sean Hannity while driving home sometimes because I'm in the middle of nowhere and it's the only thing on. Now, I haven't been able to stomach him for an entire drive to the hotel from work (all 10 minutes of it), but it really disgusts me that it's okay for his show to be focused around making sure Obama doesn't get re-elected.

I mean if you really think about it there is an extraordinarily popular radio show that runs several hours a day across the nation with the explicitly stated purpose of influencing the election.
 
M

markatisu

Member
Dave Inc. said:
I'm on a business trip right now and I've been listening to Sean Hannity while driving home sometimes because I'm in the middle of nowhere and it's the only thing on. Now, I haven't been able to stomach him for an entire drive to the hotel from work (all 10 minutes of it), but it really disgusts me that it's okay for his show to be focused around making sure Obama doesn't get re-elected.

I mean if you really think about it there is an extraordinarily popular radio show that runs several hours a day across the nation with the explicitly stated purpose of influencing the election.
Click to expand...

Well there are 24/7 news networks that run to achieve the same goals

And the kicker is that Rush and Sean would like nothing better than Obama to get an extra 4 years. They may claim they want the GOP to win but for ratings they froth at the mouth for an Obama re-election
 
W

Wolfgunblood Garopa

Member
markatisu said:
And the kicker is that Rush and Sean would like nothing better than Obama to get an extra 4 years. They may claim they want the GOP to win but for ratings they froth at the mouth for an Obama re-election
Click to expand...

Conservative entertainment is wildly popular regardless of who is in the WH. There will always be Democratic boogeymen, culture war, etc. Rush, Hannity etc are directed by the think tanks, and they most definitely want Obama to lose.
 
empty vessel

empty vessel

Member
Dave Inc. said:
I mean if you really think about it there is an extraordinarily popular radio show that runs several hours a day across the nation with the explicitly stated purpose of influencing the election.
Click to expand...

I don't think that's the offensive part. The offensive part is that it is a corporation doing it.
 
K

Krauser Kat

Member
markatisu said:
Well there are 24/7 news networks that run to achieve the same goals

And the kicker is that Rush and Sean would like nothing better than Obama to get an extra 4 years. They may claim they want the GOP to win but for ratings they froth at the mouth for an Obama re-election
Click to expand...

Unlink Colbert and Stewart, right wing radio pretty much just twiddle there thumbs and tows the party line during republican presidential times.
 
A

Averon

Member
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/santorum-will-refocus-on-economic-message

Santorum Will Refocus On Economic Message
Rick Santorum and an advisor both indicated that the candidate would spend more time focusing on the economy and manufacturing in the lead up to Super Tuesday, reports CNN. In the end, a larger focus on social issues didn’t win him Michigan while Mitt Romney painted him as an economic “lightweight.”
Click to expand...

Too little, Too late.

Everyone see you as the religious nut you are. His advisors failed him by not getting him off that religious zealotry much, much sooner.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
There's nothing Santorum can do. He can't run away from his past and he can't stop talking about social issues when he is speaking to his constituency (which is all they care about). That's why many people were still picking Romney to win it all when Santorum was trending nationally.

cousins said:
Anyone else notice that the price of peanut butter has been skyrocketing lately? What gives?
Click to expand...

I thought there was some pricing mistake when I saw it was 8 dollars for the 64 oz jar the other day. Crazy.
 
A

Averon

Member
ToxicAdam said:
There's nothing Santorum can do. He can't run away from his past and he can't stop talking about social issues when he is speaking to his constituency (which is all they care about). That's why many people were still picking Romney to win it all when Santorum was trending nationally.



I thought there was some pricing mistake when I saw it was 8 dollars for the 64 oz jar the other day. Crazy.
Click to expand...

Yeah. Santorum did a lot of damage to himself just to get a second place win. The Romney camp is going to hound Santorum about those robo calls endlessly. Even his own supporters didn't like it much. Santorum dug himself into a hole as a one dimensional candidate, and I can't see how people and the media can take his sudden shift to an economic centered campaign seriously after what we all witnessed from him in the last 3 weeks.
 
Z

Zzoram

Member
So is there any possibility at all that Romney would take on Santorum as a VP, since Santorum is strongest among the base that despises Romney? Or would Santorum be seen as another Sarah Palin, toxic to independents, and therefore not be picked?

Will Romney really pick Rubio as VP to get a non-white guy on the ticket?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Oblivion said:
Link?
Click to expand...

Here you go. Q4 revised from 2.8% to 3.0%. Expectation was it would remain unchanged.

Related, in February Chicago manufacturing ramped up big time:

Orders are piling up in the Chicago area in what promises to feed substantial activity in the months ahead. New orders rose 5.6 points to 69.2 in what is substantial month-to-month acceleration to an unusually high rate of growth. New orders in this report have been strong throughout the recovery and especially over the last six months. Orders are moving into backlog which rose more than five points to a plus 50 reading of 53.6 that indicates a tangible monthly build.

Needing to fill these orders, businesses in Chicago are hiring with the employment index up a very strong 9.5 points to 64.2. Production is up four points in the month to 67.8. The Chicago report has been perhaps the very strongest of any regional report this recovery with today's results hinting at strength for national manufacturing and non-manufacturing reports from the ISM. The Dow is moving to opening highs following the results.
Click to expand...
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
the funniest take about yesterday's results was that Romney won the Republican Catholic vote, not Santorum

http://www.cbsnews.com/primary-elec...urisdiction=0&party=R&tag=resultsR;exitPollsR

CBS's exit polls show 37 percent of Catholic voters in Michigan supporting the Pennsylvania Republican and 43 percent supporting the Massachusetts Republican. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul won 8 percent and 9 percent respectively.

Meanwhile, CNN exit polls in Arizona show Romney besting Santorum among Catholic voters by a margin of 41 percent to 35 percent.

The Catholic vote was 30 percent of the voting population in Michigan and 18 percent in Arizona. But as the numbers show, Catholic voters don't cast ballots squarely for the candidate with the most public religiosity.
Click to expand...
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
GhaleonEB said:
Yes, it's an upward revision to growth. :)
Click to expand...

lol, yes I know, what I meant was, is that a decent amount that it's improved by? I mean, obviously, going up even a little is better than going down at any level, but it would be nice if it was a significant improvement.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
Revisions usually happen in trends. So, if economic indicators are continually revised upwards that speaks to more good things to come.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Oblivion said:
lol, yes I know, what I meant was, is that a decent amount that it's improved by? I mean, obviously, going up even a little is better than going down at any level, but it would be nice if it was a significant improvement.
Click to expand...

3% growth is pretty healthy. We need about that level to maintain a good clip of employment gains (in the 250-300k range).
ToxicAdam said:
Revisions usually happen in trends. So, if economic indicators are continually revised upwards that speaks to more good things to come.
Click to expand...

Yup. It's the same thing with the employment figures: upward revisions to the prior two months usually the the trend is moving up, and likewise with the reverse. It's been one of the encouraging elements of the employment reports of late.

#####

Another retirement:

Rep. David Dreier (R-CA), the Rules Committee chairman who has served in the House since 1981, will not seek reelection this year, he announced Wednesday in a floor speech.
Click to expand...
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/david-dreier-to-retire-from-house
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Oblivion said:
lol, yes I know, what I meant was, is that a decent amount that it's improved by? I mean, obviously, going up even a little is better than going down at any level, but it would be nice if it was a significant improvement.
Click to expand...

The part I like in the report is when it's pointed out that job growth was needed to handle all the orders.

It looks like we've reached the point where companies aren't just cutting back to get more profits, but need to hire in order to maintain or improve their profit margins due to some increases in demand.
 
M

markatisu

Member
gutter_trash said:
the funniest take about yesterday's results was that Romney won the Republican Catholic vote, not Santorum

http://www.cbsnews.com/primary-elec...urisdiction=0&party=R&tag=resultsR;exitPollsR
Click to expand...

Yeah but he Romney got slaughtered with Evangelicals, and those are the base and core of the current GOP.

I find the irony in a Mormon winning Catholic votes but it would have been even funnier had he also won the Evangelicals

cousins said:
Anyone else notice that the price of peanut butter has been skyrocketing lately? What gives?
Click to expand...

Its been rising since Oct, the peanut harvest was horrible and so the price went up 20-50% based on region
 
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