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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread
- Thread starter AlteredBeast
- Start date
- Status
Might as well.
Michigan
Santorum - 38
Romney - 36
Paul - 16
Gingrich - 10
Arizona
Romney - 46
Santorum - 35
Paul - 11
Gingrich - 8
The Librarian
Banned
I'm just curious as to your reasoning. Relax.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Just saw this. Bwahahahahaha.
The Chosen One
Member
The momentum definitely seems to have switched the last few days. Just as Santorum was starting to sink from the weight of all his crazy, Mittens closed out the final days very poorly.
He a) Had a subdued 1200 person campaign event in an empty football stadium. b). Repeated the widely mocked statement that the trees are the right height. c). Mentioned his wife owned several Cadilacs when trying to connect with the common man. d). Mocked NASCAR fans for wearing cheap raincoats. e). Said he knows little about NASCAR, but he knows a couple of NASCAR owners.
That's a lot of unforced errors in such a short-time right before a critical must-win primary. Romney really is a gafe machine. Even if Romney wins today and continues on to easily win the nomination, he's going to be a mess in the general. Mittens is a 2nd rate candidate who only looks good because he's surrounded by 3rd and 5th rate candidate in the Republican primary. But he's definitely starting to get exposed as a sub-par Presidential candidate.
He a) Had a subdued 1200 person campaign event in an empty football stadium. b). Repeated the widely mocked statement that the trees are the right height. c). Mentioned his wife owned several Cadilacs when trying to connect with the common man. d). Mocked NASCAR fans for wearing cheap raincoats. e). Said he knows little about NASCAR, but he knows a couple of NASCAR owners.
That's a lot of unforced errors in such a short-time right before a critical must-win primary. Romney really is a gafe machine. Even if Romney wins today and continues on to easily win the nomination, he's going to be a mess in the general. Mittens is a 2nd rate candidate who only looks good because he's surrounded by 3rd and 5th rate candidate in the Republican primary. But he's definitely starting to get exposed as a sub-par Presidential candidate.
Holy shit. For a while I felt bad that Democrats were trying this, but not anymore. He completely deserves these "dirty tricks reminiscent of the past."
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Is he really gonna bring it like this all the time in 2012? Because if so......WHOA!
StopMakingSense
Member
Also yesterday's claim of remembering a Michigan event that was before he was born.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
While I've been on the "Obama can't be beaten" bandwagon for a couple years now, I too have to admit a little shock at just how fucking bad of a candidate Mittens is. I mean, WOW.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Santorum could win most delegates even by losing popular vote due to the congressional district based delegate award.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...h-could-give-a-big-edge-to-rick-santorum.html
Generally bodes well for Santorum.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...h-could-give-a-big-edge-to-rick-santorum.html
Generally bodes well for Santorum.
It's easy to mask your failings when you're standing next to the likes of Gingrich and Santorum.
Manmademan
Member
you're talking about a one term Governor (with a failed senate run) that got his ass kicked by John McCain and Mike Huckabee in 2008. This isn't a political genius we're looking at.
this also
cartoon_soldier
Member
Oh and BIG news, Olympia Snowe retired.
Putting the Open Senate seat in play for Democrats
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...ng-maine-senate-seat-up-for-grabs.php?ref=fpb
Problem for GOP is that if someone like Snowe doesn't jump in, their candidate will be a Tea Party one.
Putting the Open Senate seat in play for Democrats
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...ng-maine-senate-seat-up-for-grabs.php?ref=fpb
Problem for GOP is that if someone like Snowe doesn't jump in, their candidate will be a Tea Party one.
StopMakingSense
Member
Yes, its all over the last page.
cartoon_soldier
Member
PhoenixDark
Banned
my prediction
Michigan
Romney 40
Santorum 36
Gingrich 12
Paul 12
Michigan
Romney 40
Santorum 36
Gingrich 12
Paul 12
I never realized that he and Santorum have so much common ground. Maybe they really are destined to share the ticket.
Manmademan
Member
actually Santorum had two successful runs at the senate before getting the boot. This is one full term more than mittens.
Keep in mind Mitt Romney spent a good chunk of his term out of state, preparing to run for president in the 08 elections, as well!
This is what always makes me laugh when Mitt tries to trot out his "I'm not a career politician!" line...it wasn't for lack of trying! He's just bad at running for office!
Not this time. Santorum was going to win today's voters, but he still had to make up the huge lead Romney had in early votes. So lower turnout today might be very bad for Santorum.
Totally depends where the low turnout is, Santorums strength is in smaller cities and rural areas
If the lower turnout is in bigger cities like Detroit that only hurts Romney
If Romney wins by anything less than 4-5 points it will be a bad day for him
Also I just saw it reported that GOP voting was down 10% but that Democrat/Independent voting was up over 2008, will be interesting to see how it plays out
Yeah Nate Silver has been on Twitter telling everyone to stop reading into the early data, since it can cut both ways.
FWIW, low turnout could also hurt Romney because it's been shown that his supporters are less enthusiastic than his opponents; low turnout corrosponds with places he ran well in. There's not enough to go on yet.
Manmademan
Member
this is all but guaranteed- polls had him tied to down. no way he gets a 8-10 point win out of this
TestOfTide
Banned
Michigan:
Romney 37%
Santorum 37%
Paul 15%
Gingrich 11%
With Romney barely pulling ahead similar to (but not quite as close as) iowa.
Romney 37%
Santorum 37%
Paul 15%
Gingrich 11%
With Romney barely pulling ahead similar to (but not quite as close as) iowa.
gutter_trash
Banned
go Operation Chaos!
StopMakingSense
Member
You mean when all the votes are tallied Santorum will actually have more votes? (Santorum actually won Iowa with 34 votes)
cartoon_soldier
Member
Oh...David Gregory...
Has he seen the unfavorables data with Indies for Romney?
David Gregory said:
Has he seen the unfavorables data with Indies for Romney?
Gregory continues to be a very dim bulb.
Silver on the early data and why not to read into it: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...aution-on-early-voters-turnout-and-exit-polls
Why did NBC pick this dolt as the host of MTP again?
cartoon_soldier
Member
By implementing Obamacare, Texas insured will rise to 91% from 74%
http://www.chron.com/news/houston-t...th-insurance-expected-to-reach-91-3365473.php
But...republicans have of course resisted implementing it.
http://www.chron.com/news/houston-t...th-insurance-expected-to-reach-91-3365473.php
But...republicans have of course resisted implementing it.
The Chosen One
Member
I think Romney is going to eek by 2-3 percentages, but I'm hoping Santorum wins by that same margin just for the lolz. He does have the final days momentum.
Regardless of what happens, I think the low turn out should be the second biggest story today. The Republicans had SO much energy in the 2010 mid-terms elections. Now just a little over a year later, that energy seems almost completely sapped from the GOP base.
I'm kind of curious of the causes. Is it:
- The slowly improving economy is dulling the effects of Obama fear-mongering.
- The House GOP missteps embarrassing the base.
- The extremely weak GOP presidential field.
I guess it's probably a combination of all three, but I am curious which one was the most significant factor. It's just amazing how quickly the GOP enthusiasm free-falled after the mid-terms.
Regardless of what happens, I think the low turn out should be the second biggest story today. The Republicans had SO much energy in the 2010 mid-terms elections. Now just a little over a year later, that energy seems almost completely sapped from the GOP base.
I'm kind of curious of the causes. Is it:
- The slowly improving economy is dulling the effects of Obama fear-mongering.
- The House GOP missteps embarrassing the base.
- The extremely weak GOP presidential field.
I guess it's probably a combination of all three, but I am curious which one was the most significant factor. It's just amazing how quickly the GOP enthusiasm free-falled after the mid-terms.
Manmademan
Member
If I had to put money on it, I'd say it's the field more than anything else. All three candidates are seriously damaged, have a lot of baggage, or both. The fact that there's STILL serious calls for an unknown candidate to swoop in this late says a LOT
Yeah the polling I just saw said they estimated GOP voting was down from 69% in 2008 to ~55%, so much for voter enthusiasm
Also Nate Silver twittered
Let chaos ensue lol
Slurpy2k20
Member
Looking forward to see Obama slaughter the eventual nominee. It's one thing when they're safe in their own debates spewing whatever vitriolic shit they feel like with no opposition. It's quite another in the general when the guy has to face Obama and back up baseless accusation with fact.
planar1280
Banned
Polls starting to close, First Exit poll date:
10% of voters today were democrats, of those 10% 50% voted for santorum, 15% for Romney
10% of voters today were democrats, of those 10% 50% voted for santorum, 15% for Romney
Not surprising its his same playbook from 2000 and 2004, he still thinks had McCain listened to him we would have a GOP Presidency
thecouncil
Banned
Manmademan
Member
That's the thing. televised debates can be as much emotional appeal and presentation as they are about facts.
unfortunately for this crowd, Obama can bring both, and none of the GOP contenders can really do either.
edit: I take that back. Gingrich is quite good at the emotional appeal bit when he's attacking the moderator.
Slurpy2k20
Member
I like how 3/4 'vital areas' are fear-mongering bullshit.
Also, why does anyone give a fuck about that that slimy, despicable, lying sloth Karl Rove thinks? He couldn't help the republicans last time. And thee isn't a shred of intelligence or insight in what he wrote there. It's the same 'ISLAMIC TERROR! IRAN!' tired attack line.
Oh, but I'm glad Rove made it crystal clear that Obama himself didn't personally kill Bin Laden in that article, and thus doesn't deserve the credit. I'm sure many Americans were confused about that issue. Just like when Rove was making the argument that Bush didn't personally kill Saddam and therefore didn't deserve cre- oh wait, that didn't happen.
Fucking scumbag.
The thing is most people don't anymore. They associate Rove with Bush and Bush is still very toxic. It pisses Rove off and so he is going into overdrive to try and stay relevant
Aaron Strife
Banned
Apparently this is all over the last page.
WOW. Dems' chances of retaining the Senate just got that much better.
RustyNails
Member
Hey guys,
Lets move all the primary discussion from here
and push it in here
I'm not gonna do back and forth for primary lulz, and I'll be damned if I miss out
Lets move all the primary discussion from here
and push it in here
I'm not gonna do back and forth for primary lulz, and I'll be damned if I miss out
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