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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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Tawpgun

Member
lnflJ.jpg
 

leroidys

Member
Damn you guys. It's just bulbo. I usually find his trolling funny rather than grating. I guess the ratio of actual viewpoints offered to trolling is getting pretty low, but still, he's reasonable. I think that some of you don't remember kittonwy, drakesfortune, or JayDubya.
 

Al-ibn Kermit

Junior Member
Puddles? I didn't recognize you.

If insurers are forced to compete for seniors' business, health plans will demand lower prices from doctors, hospitals and drug companies. And so on and so on. What is the incentive in the Medicare (I call it Old Medicare) for keeping prices down?

Flying Phoenix. Calm down. Its alright. I sometimes have an opposing view. And..
I'm a busy man. I can't always be here.

How would a non-profit organization made up of fixed salary government employees do anything but push for the lowest rates possible?

A for-profit health insurance company will also push for the lowest administrative costs possible but they may also raise rates because, ya know their ultimate purpose is to make a profit.
 

thatbox

Banned
Damn you guys. It's just bulbo. I usually find his trolling funny rather than grating. I guess the ratio of actual viewpoints offered to trolling is getting pretty low, but still, he's reasonable. I think that some of you don't remember kittonwy, drakesfortune, or JayDubya.

JayDubya at the very least was much more sincere than the current crop.
 
Wow, so my 18 year old co-worker today said he voted in the primary the other day. He also let it slip that he voted for Rick Santorum. But he did so because his dad pretty much made him. He didn't know anything about the candidates and didn't think he should vote, but his dad said something like "What, doing what your dad tells you isn't good enough?" And then his dad proceeded to stand right behind him while he voted. What the fuck...

WTF indeed. The guy needs to stand up for himself a bit. He should have asked the poll workers to help him get some privacy. I'm sure Granny poll worker could slap Dad around a bit.
 

Jackson50

Member
One of innumerable Economist blogs referenced a recent Treasury report last week delineating the numerous reasons to invest heavily in infrastructure. Our failure to exploit the present costs of financing to bolster future capacity is acutely unfortunate. What a wasted opportunity.
Mittens leads Santo in PA:

Pennsylvania: Romney 42, Santorum 37, Paul 9, Gingrich 6:

http://t.co/suC2BwRz



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/42853472#46956065
For future reference, it's typically good form to source whatever your referencing. Otherwise, we're unaware of the context.
And remake him into the Proffesor's liberal image instead of his own father's ?
For his and our sake, yes.
 

Al-ibn Kermit

Junior Member
WTF indeed. The guy needs to stand up for himself a bit. He should have asked the poll workers to help him get some privacy. I'm sure Granny poll worker could slap Dad around a bit.

As somebody who's worked the polls a few times, I wouldn't give that situation a second thought unless the kid actually complained. A lot of people have their spouses or parents help them double-check their ballots, you only get one ballot so you want to make sure you filled it out correctly. Especially if it's your first time voting or if you haven't voted in a while.

But yes, the more important thing is that this kid needs to go to college/military or somewhere to figure out his life on his own. I think he'll probably be too apathetic or too opinionated to vote like his dad says by the next election.
 

XMonkey

lacks enthusiasm.
One of innumerable Economist blogs referenced a recent Treasury report last week delineating the numerous reasons to invest heavily in infrastructure. Our failure to exploit the present costs of financing to bolster future capacity is acutely unfortunate. What a wasted opportunity.
This really pisses me off.
 

markatisu

Member
Oh, that's gonna be embarrassing for him.

Not surprising though, the media has basically painted this as Santorum's last stand so I assume that the GOP and its voters are wanting the attacks on Romney to stop

And if Santorum cannot even win his own home state that is about as big an indictment as a blowout elsewhere would be.

If he loses PA I am pretty sure he will drop out
 
You think insurance companies will simply elect to charge no more than the amount issued in the government vouchers? Why wouldn't they?

This is why Medicare was invented in the first place. Seniors are particularly unsuitable candidates for private health insurance--no profit-making institution is interested in taking them. The sensible thing to do that every other civilized country does is add younger citizens to the risk pool, driving down costs for everyone. I really do not see how one can rationally oppose this.

Why wouldn't they? They would also be competing with the traditional program. I think competition from both sides would keep prices down.
 

gcubed

Member
Not surprising though, the media has basically painted this as Santorum's last stand so I assume that the GOP and its voters are wanting the attacks on Romney to stop

And if Santorum cannot even win his own home state that is about as big an indictment as a blowout elsewhere would be.

If he loses PA I am pretty sure he will drop out

no one really likes him in PA
 

gcubed

Member
A report tomorrow may show the world’s largest economy added more than 200,000 jobs in March for a third consecutive month, the longest streak of similar increases since late 1999 early 2000

the best 3, no 4 month stretch of jobs in 13 YEARS.

I guess i didnt really know what the average job growth number is, but i wouldn't have guessed its been 13 years since we've had 3 months of 200,000+ hiring (assuming the number tomorrow comes in over 200k). The number still needs to be higher... Was that last one coming out of the dot com bubble?
 

GhaleonEB

Member
the best 3 month stretch of jobs in 13 YEARS.

I guess i didnt really know what the average job growth number is, but i wouldn't have guessed its been 13 years since we've had 3 months of 200,000+ hiring (assuming the number tomorrow comes in over 200k). The number still needs to be higher... Was that last one coming out of the dot com bubble?

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

200k+ were added in February, March and April last year. And over 200k were added this most recent December, January and February - March would make 4 months in a row. I think they meant the last time we had four months in a row of 200+ was 13 years ago. In which case, they'd be right, it was September 1999 to January 2000. I bet we hear the "best streak in 13 years" a few times starting tomorrow.

At any rate, two additional data points today.


Challenger's tracking of layoff announcements dropped.

Challenger's layoff count fell to 37,880 in March vs 51,728 in February and 41,528 in March last year.

Weekly jobless claims dropped to a new low:

Layoffs continue to decrease in what is a strong signal of underlying payroll growth and a signal that the unemployment rate is continuing to come down. Initial jobless claims total 357,000 in the March 31 week, down 6,000 vs a revised 363,000 in the prior week. The four-week average is down a sizable 4,250 to 361,750. The latest week's level and the level for the four-week average are both recovery lows.

The level of continuing claims, at 3.338 million, down 16,000 in data for the March 24 week, is also at a recovery low as is the four-week average of 3.367 million which is down 25,000 in the week. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged in the week at 2.6 percent which is also a recovery low.
 

gcubed

Member
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

200k+ were added in February, March and April last year. And over 200k were added this most recent December, January and February - March would make 4 months in a row. I think they meant the last time we had four months in a row of 200+ was 13 years ago. In which case, they'd be right, it was September 1999 to January 2000. I bet we hear the "best streak in 13 years" a few times starting tomorrow.

At any rate, two additional data points today.


Challenger's tracking of layoff announcements dropped.



Weekly jobless claims dropped to a new low:


I blame bloomberg, thats where that came from.

Anyway, fuck Europe. I had a bunch of stocks I put in to sell 2 days ago. My stock is down a dollar since i put the limit order in. I have incredibly bad timing.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
I blame bloomberg, thats where that came from.

Anyway, fuck Europe. I had a bunch of stocks I put in to sell 2 days ago. My stock is down a dollar since i put the limit order in. I have incredibly bad timing.

That sucks. I seem to have that same kind of luck any time I sell; my new solution is to never sell (last was several years ago). Next time I do I'm sure the markets will drop like a rock.
 
Wow, so my 18 year old co-worker today said he voted in the primary the other day. He also let it slip that he voted for Rick Santorum. But he did so because his dad pretty much made him. He didn't know anything about the candidates and didn't think he should vote, but his dad said something like "What, doing what your dad tells you isn't good enough?" And then his dad proceeded to stand right behind him while he voted. What the fuck...

My dad tried to bring me along to vote in a local election one time before I moved out (I think I was 20 at the time?) and I told him I couldn't because I knew nothing about the local candidates and it would be irresponsible. He told me he knew who to vote for so I could just go along with him.

It was the only time I'd ever been disappointed with him, otherwise he's a wonderful father.
 
the best 3, no 4 month stretch of jobs in 13 YEARS.
Ghaleon, perhaps you're best equipped to answer this--I think the quoted statement is almost entirely meaningless, as are most statements touting "blah consecutive months of private sector job growth." Isn't that just what the business cycle is? People talk about the recovery as if the fact that it's happening is completely unpredictable, and I don't really understand why. I think a similar sort of thing may apply to Mitt Romney's record as governor of Massachusetts, although I'm not sure of the particulars here. What if his state was the "47th worst" in job creation because its economy was doing fine and it didn't need to create that many jobs?

What am I missing here?
 

LosDaddie

Banned
My dad tried to bring me along to vote in a local election one time before I moved out (I think I was 20 at the time?) and I told him I couldn't because I knew nothing about the local candidates and it would be irresponsible. He told me he knew who to vote for so I could just go along with him.

It was the only time I'd ever been disappointed with him, otherwise he's a wonderful father.

My wife and 2 sister-in-laws call their Limbaugh-parrot/Birther dad each election to tell them who to vote for. They don't do any research. They just vote for whomever he tells them to.

Well, my wife used to do this until she got tired of me trolling her about it. :)
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Ghaleon, perhaps you're best equipped to answer this--I think the quoted statement is almost entirely meaningless, as are most statements touting "blah consecutive months of private sector job growth." Isn't that just what the business cycle is? People talk about the recovery as if the fact that it's happening is completely unpredictable, and I don't really understand why. I think a similar sort of thing may apply to Mitt Romney's record as governor of Massachusetts, although I'm not sure of the particulars here. What if his state was the "47th worst" in job creation because its economy was doing fine and it didn't need to create that many jobs?

What am I missing here?

It's in some ways an arbitrary measure; they're just looking back for the last time we had a streak above X amount. The only value I see in it (aside from political bragging rights) is to back up the sense that the recovery at the start of this year has better legs under it than last year, which got off to a very similar job gain start before stalling out for six months. The data in the last six months seem to be pointing to some underlying economic strength, with forward indicators signaling more steady growth than last year. A streak of 200k+ job gains adds to that sense a bit.

To put it differently, if the report tomorrow is say, +180k, that would yield reporting that the job market stalled out and could be a bad omen going forward; more than 200k+ would be reported as the best streak in 13 years. An oversimplification but I'm guessing that's how it would get read.
 

RDreamer

Member
WTF indeed. The guy needs to stand up for himself a bit. He should have asked the poll workers to help him get some privacy. I'm sure Granny poll worker could slap Dad around a bit.

I don't think he really cared enough. He doesn't strike me as someone who gets into politics at all. Someone that completely apathetic isn't going to go as the poll workers for privacy.

My dad tried to bring me along to vote in a local election one time before I moved out (I think I was 20 at the time?) and I told him I couldn't because I knew nothing about the local candidates and it would be irresponsible. He told me he knew who to vote for so I could just go along with him.

It was the only time I'd ever been disappointed with him, otherwise he's a wonderful father.

That's one thing I'm happy with about my dad. He never forced me to vote a certain way or anything like that. He certainly told me what he thinks, but he would never in a million years go as far as this guy's dad. Right now my dad dislikes that I'm liberal, but he does say at every point possible "At least you're getting into this stuff. At your age I didn't care at all. That's all that matters is that you're paying attention."
 
Ghaleon, perhaps you're best equipped to answer this--I think the quoted statement is almost entirely meaningless, as are most statements touting "blah consecutive months of private sector job growth." Isn't that just what the business cycle is? People talk about the recovery as if the fact that it's happening is completely unpredictable, and I don't really understand why. I think a similar sort of thing may apply to Mitt Romney's record as governor of Massachusetts, although I'm not sure of the particulars here. What if his state was the "47th worst" in job creation because its economy was doing fine and it didn't need to create that many jobs?

What am I missing here?

Not much. As far as I can tell, this is just comparing the job growth now to the job growth coming out of the last recession. In fact, the job growth can still be considered slow given the hole we're in. At no time in the last thirteen years were we in this deep. That makes the job growth coming out of the recession 13 years ago (6.3% unemployment) more remarkable than the growth today (10%), because that was coming out of a much milder recession.

All that said, as long the recovery continues, it will help Democratic prospects.

Jackson50 said:
One of innumerable Economist blogs referenced a recent Treasury report last week delineating the numerous reasons to invest heavily in infrastructure. Our failure to exploit the present costs of financing to bolster future capacity is acutely unfortunate. What a wasted opportunity.

From the blog:

The Treasury has just published a white paper full of reasons to favour additional investment. Even if you are sceptical of the utility of fiscal stimulus qua stimulus, now seems like a very good time to undertake much more investment than normal. As the Treasury paper points out, very low interest rates and high unemployment mean that the odds of crowding out private spending and investment are much lower than normal [EV: i.e., inflation is not a risk]. Cheaper than normal capital and labour also imply that taxpayers will receive a better deal on spending than would typically be the case. The cost-benefit calculus on infrastructure investment has shifted toward doing more of it, or at least squeezing more expected investment into the present period. Other research, like the new Brookings paper by Brad DeLong and Larry Summers, also indicates that the bar for greater investment should be lower. Given the potential that unemployment will become increasingly persistent as time goes on, the value of government spending that reduces joblessness—even temporarily—is higher than may be appreciated. Any projects that seemed like good ideas in general, and there are a lot of them, look like really, really good ideas now.​

MMT economists would approve.
 

gcubed

Member
Not much. As far as I can tell, this is just comparing the job growth now to the job growth coming out of the last recession. In fact, the job growth can still be considered slow given the hole we're in. At no time in the last thirteen years were we in this deep. That makes the job growth coming out of the recession 13 years ago (6.3% unemployment) more remarkable than the growth today (10%), because that was coming out of a much milder recession.

All that said, as long the recovery continues, it will help Democratic prospects.



From the blog:

The Treasury has just published a white paper full of reasons to favour additional investment. Even if you are sceptical of the utility of fiscal stimulus qua stimulus, now seems like a very good time to undertake much more investment than normal. As the Treasury paper points out, very low interest rates and high unemployment mean that the odds of crowding out private spending and investment are much lower than normal [EV: i.e., inflation is not a risk]. Cheaper than normal capital and labour also imply that taxpayers will receive a better deal on spending than would typically be the case. The cost-benefit calculus on infrastructure investment has shifted toward doing more of it, or at least squeezing more expected investment into the present period. Other research, like the new Brookings paper by Brad DeLong and Larry Summers, also indicates that the bar for greater investment should be lower. Given the potential that unemployment will become increasingly persistent as time goes on, the value of government spending that reduces joblessness—even temporarily—is higher than may be appreciated. Any projects that seemed like good ideas in general, and there are a lot of them, look like really, really good ideas now.​

MMT economists would approve.

we weren't coming out of a recession in 1999-2000. The recession didn't start until 2001. Its still an arbitrary measurement
 
the best 3, no 4 month stretch of jobs in 13 YEARS.

I guess i didnt really know what the average job growth number is, but i wouldn't have guessed its been 13 years since we've had 3 months of 200,000+ hiring (assuming the number tomorrow comes in over 200k). The number still needs to be higher... Was that last one coming out of the dot com bubble?

Yeah now that the economy is looking good, the debate is turning to healthcare/supreme court. Bams can't catch a break.
 
EV, it depends on the infrastructure investment, as always. A bad investment is still a bad investment. A train to nowhere is a train to nowhere.
Do you have a good list of worthwhile proposals?
 
EV, it depends on the infrastructure investment, as always. A bad investment is still a bad investment. A train to nowhere is a train to nowhere.
Do you have a good list of worthwhile proposals?

Before even going down the road of building new projects, which I'm in favor of, I would say that just repairing aging infrastructure, which is pretty universally called for, would be enough to satisfy myself as far as taking advantage of this in this political climate.
 
we weren't coming out of a recession in 1999-2000. The recession didn't start until 2001. Its still an arbitrary measurement

Oh shit, did my math wrong. 12-13 does not equal 1.


EV, it depends on the infrastructure investment, as always. A bad investment is still a bad investment. A train to nowhere is a train to nowhere.
Do you have a good list of worthwhile proposals?

Believe it or not, the economy would benefit by paying people to do nothing. But, obviously, if you're going to pay somebody to do something, it might as well be something useful. So of course it depends on the project. I don't have a good list of worthwhile proposals, but I suspect you could walk and/or drive around whatever city in which you currently live and come up with a list of a couple hundred projects within a few hours.
 

gcubed

Member
Oh shit, did my math wrong. 12-13 does not equal 1.




Believe it or not, the economy would benefit by paying people to do nothing. But, obviously, if you're going to pay somebody to do something, it might as well be something useful. So of course it depends on the project. I don't have a good list of worthwhile proposals, but I suspect you could walk and/or drive around whatever city in which you currently live and come up with a list of a couple hundred projects within a few hours.

Philadelphia could use an expansion of its subway system. I'll take that.
 
Oh shit, did my math wrong. 12-13 does not equal 1.




Believe it or not, the economy would benefit by paying people to do nothing. But, obviously, if you're going to pay somebody to do something, it might as well be something useful. So of course it depends on the project. I don't have a good list of worthwhile proposals, but I suspect you could walk and/or drive around whatever city in which you currently live and come up with a list of a couple hundred projects within a few hours.

I was thinking more in the line of large/huge federal projects. something along the lines of interstate freeways but for the 21st century.
Not just maintenance issues.
 

Jackson50

Member
Before even going down the road of building new projects, which I'm in favor of, I would say that just repairing aging infrastructure, which is pretty universally called for, would be enough to satisfy myself as far as taking advantage of this in this political climate.
Right. It's not as if we're without projects. Moreover, it's not just transportation infrastructure which sorely requires attention. Our water infrastructure is desperately screaming for attention.
This really pisses me off.
No doubt. The provision of public goods is a basic function of government. It's one at which we're failing spectacularly.
 

Jackson50

Member
"This is social policy in the richest nation in the history of the world."

Down the Insurance Rabbit Hole
By ANDREA LOUISE CAMPBELL
Published: April 4, 2012

ON the second day of oral arguments over the Affordable Care Act, Solicitor General Donald B. Verrilli Jr., trying to explain what sets health care apart, told the Supreme Court, “This is a market in which you may be healthy one day and you may be a very unhealthy participant in that market the next day.” Justice Antonin Scalia subsequently expressed skepticism about forcing the young to buy insurance: “When they think they have a substantial risk of incurring high medical bills, they’ll buy insurance, like the rest of us.”

May the justices please meet my sister-in-law. On Feb. 8, she was a healthy 32-year-old, who was seven and a half months pregnant with her first baby. On Feb. 9, she was a quadriplegic, paralyzed from the chest down by a car accident that damaged her spine. Miraculously, the baby, born by emergency C-section, is healthy.

http://goo.gl/aPS0L
 
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