The Librarian
Banned
That's why it's reaching less people?
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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread
- Thread starter AlteredBeast
- Start date
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Wow.
One of the reasons why McCain lost FL was because he was under-performing in key conservative cities. This could be a repeat
.The southwest becoming more and more democratic (sans AZ) is a boon for Democrats on the presidential level. The GOP really needs to find ways to get more competitive in states like IL, NJ, and OR. If not, things will only get worse for them on the presidential level.
RustyNails
Member
Dat hispanic surge
Also:
Mitt Romney may have effectively wrapped up the GOP nomination with Rick Santorum's withdrawal yesterday, but PPP's newest North Carolina poll really shows how much Romney was hurt by the process with Barack Obama as the ultimate beneficiary.
Obama now leads Romney by 5 points in North Carolina, 49-44. That's the largest lead we've found for him in monthly polling dating back to November of 2010. Obama has a 51-38 advantage with independents and is particularly strong with women (54-39), African Americans (90-7), voters under 30 (61-33), and folks in the Triangle (60-33).
Obama now leads Romney by 5 points in North Carolina, 49-44. That's the largest lead we've found for him in monthly polling dating back to November of 2010. Obama has a 51-38 advantage with independents and is particularly strong with women (54-39), African Americans (90-7), voters under 30 (61-33), and folks in the Triangle (60-33).
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/04/obama-at-a-high-in-north-carolina.html
Romney has work to do. And just tearing down Obama ala Crossroads won't cut it.
reggieandTFE
Member
Illinois should be prime GOP pickup territory considering the state's finances and 10 years of Democratically-controlled executive and legislature, but the party here sucks so, so bad. Pat Quinn was re-elected in a GOP wave year despite having a 39% approval rating the day of the election!
RustyNails
Member
It's not happening, at least not in IL. It's like saying Democrats need to get more competitive in Oklahoma, South Dakota and Alabama.
The democratic machine is pretty solid in IL. If we had some other guy than Alexi Ginoulias, we could've won the Senate seat as well. The guy had the charisma of a paper bag.
PhoenixDark
Banned
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/audio-romney-campaign-doesnt-know-romneys-position-on
I just don't get this. It's time to play in the big boys league and Romney's camp seems so confused by their boss' flip flops that they're afraid to say what he believes. Supporting the Lily Ledbetter Act is a no harm, no foul proposition, there's no reason to haggle over it - especially now.
Romney's camp later responded that he supports the act but jeez, what an unforced error to make while arguing your boss is the real candidate protecting women's rights lol
I just don't get this. It's time to play in the big boys league and Romney's camp seems so confused by their boss' flip flops that they're afraid to say what he believes. Supporting the Lily Ledbetter Act is a no harm, no foul proposition, there's no reason to haggle over it - especially now.
Romney's camp later responded that he supports the act but jeez, what an unforced error to make while arguing your boss is the real candidate protecting women's rights lol
I don't think the Crossroads $200 million dollar ad rape will hurt Obama as much as they think it will. At least not by itself. With Romney's money splurge against Santorum he was bringing up stuff about a relative newcomer nationally, and with Gingrich he was just reminding voters of how much he sucked in the 90s. Obama's positives and negatives are known by pretty much everyone at this point. He's been on the news every single night for 4 years now. I don't think independents are going to be swayed back and forth en masse like the disoriented republican base has been these last several months.
RustyNails
Member
Apparently Team Obama wasted no time
Their followup statement reeked of 12 year's old desperation:
We support women!! Obama doesn't support them!! Yeah, just overlook the question entirely.
The Librarian
Banned
Dax, just work your magic down there like you did in 08 and we got this.
Black Republican
Member
was just skimming through the last pages, but wow brian sondoval is pro choice? say goodbye to the vp spot then, im sure he woulda done decent with latinos
i dont think romney's vp pick will be a big name but someone credible still.
i dont think romney's vp pick will be a big name but someone credible still.
cartoon_soldier
Member
My people too, well Charlotte baby! But I can't vote, but fuck yea, Obama should win NC.
I think it was Jackson who said it earlier, but I think Romney picking someone like Rubio would hurt him a little bit because it would bring up a lot of the anti-immigration stuff Romney has said in the past. If he doesn't pick a Latino for a VP choice, there's a better chance of that discussion not being so out there as it would otherwise. Of course Obama isn't going to let people forget that stuff, but he could potentially make the campaign a bit more difficult with a choice like that. Romney would be better off picking a completely safe and well known Republican like Obama did with Biden. If people keep talking and talking about your VP choice after the fact, attention isn't being focused on the actual campaign.
Why can't you vote? Under age?
Why can't you vote? Under age?
So you're pining for the old welfare program that most everyone acknowledged was broken and not actually helping people? Decrying the TANF reform that Bill Clinton calls one of his proudest accomplishments of his tenure?
Since then, there have been a number of different programs, tax cuts/credits that have put money back into the pockets of the poor. Money for Medicaid and food stamps has soared in the past decade.
cartoon_soldier
Member
On H1, work visa.
Even though you may not be able to vote, staying aware, spreading the word and engaging in conversation with people is just as important to the political process. If I remember correctly, Dax was too young to vote in 08 when Obama won there, but he was constantly engaging in conversation here, so carry his torch!
Invisible_Insane
Member
True. I was thinking about it more from the perspective of the Romney campaign. What they wanted to be their central message is being undermined by the recovery, but the problem for Romney is that he doesn't have credibility on anything else, and so he's resorted to trying to obscure the differences between the president and himself.
Hamid Karzai can go fuck himself. I am deeply, deeply puzzled about what information the decision makers in the administration are privy to such that continuing this war is somehow seen as a good idea.
I thought you knew us better than that. I'm sure Obama will reflect on PPACA as the proudest accomplishment of his tenure; that doesn't mean that liberals will think it was good legislation.
Should there be?
There should always be a worry that a meteorite could fall out of the sky and kill you, but do you really want to waste time worrying about that?
Most able-bodied people want to support themselves. The dependency argument is ridiculous.
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
C'mon TA, this one's easy. Everyone has known that Romney would be the nominee, and Rush/Fox/etc keep the discourse as far right as possible to move the center. That means focusing on and supporting the more hardcore conservative views of the other candidates.
That's interesting, because government as 'daddy' is a conservative thing. They look to use authority in government as a father figure (moral guidance, strict discipline, supporting the institution over the individual, emotional alignment with corporations and against organized labor, etc).
RustyNails
Member
But that's what sucks about Work/Study visa. You're telling the US Consulate that you're going to US on a temporary basis for work or study. Bearing that in mind, why should you bother with the political process of the country? That is the logic US follows. I know since I was on the same boat (student). Being unable to vote is horrible, while apathetic idiots throw away their votes. I feel like punching them in the mouth whenever they say shit like your vote doesn't matter/they're all the same/blah blah. I was so close too. I'm a permanent resident now, but still cannot vote.
I think there was considerable question that Romney would be the nominee before this process started. I wasn't one of those people, as I had repeatedly stated he had it locked up back in April of last year. But many claimed that no way the 'Godfather of Obamacare' or a fervent Mormon could ever win the nomination. Not to mention his complete failure to draw any Southern support. Now, that could have just been a smoke screen to generate hits or drum up a race, but I think people genuinely believed it.
I don't follow this argument at all. I don't disagree that there are a good number in the conservative wing (like Santorum) that want to enforce their idea of morality through legislation, but aside from a few states, those laws never go anywhere on a national level. That's the definite danger of the far right wing in America and often why I claim both extreme wings of the political partys are more similar than people think.
I don't think your other contentions really jive with wanting government to play a daddy role. Supporting stricter discipline has more to do with protecting the economy and encouraging growth, rather than any kind of wish to keep people feeling helpless or held down. If you don't have security (or the sense of it) then you don't have an economy. I'm trying to think of what you are inferring when you say 'supporting the institution over the individual'? The only institution in America that seems to be thriving in the present and recent past is government. They seem to want to tear that down. Emotional alignment with corporations over organized labor seems doesn't seem like it fits the bill either. Organized labor was quite often the epitome of playing the parent role in many people's lives. That's why there was a tremendous push back against it in the 80's and why many blue collar workers swung Reagan's way.
Obama will win Iowa, Bush had to fight to beat Kerry here in 2004 but the GOP actually liked him. Here the GOP likes Santorum and hates Romney.
Obama won with ease in Iowa in 2008 and will again with the sometimes 300% increase in Hispanics in a lot of our counties and the fact that a majority of our voters are in big cities with colleges
Needless to say the auto bailout is what I keep hearing old people here talking about, the fact Romney was on the opposite end of that is going to continue to hurt him.
etch a sketch...etch a sketch
There is no better example of not ready for prime time then that comment, things like this just confirm that.
The Librarian
Banned
The cuts states had to make under the laws passed in the 90s have not done more with less they have done less with less. They don't use the money to help people, the states use them to help plug up their budget holes. Whether or not it was helping people before doesn't matter because it's not helping people now.
I was arguing against your point that we need fear that people view the government as "daddy" and linked to you one way in which it's not happening. That's what I was arguing against, not "pining old welfare program
You mean the budget shortfalls caused by Medicaid (a program that has been greatly expanded to service more poor people) that has exploded in the past decade?
Recent stats:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/13/us-usa-states-medicaid-idUSTRE7BC25420111213
Your argument was that poor people were not receiving money (thus incapable of viewing government as 'daddy') from the government because one outdated, ineffective program was not reaching the numbers it once did.
The median cash AND food assistance combined is $255 per person nationally. Try living on $255/month. A significant number of people choose to forego a job and live severely impovrished? Yeah, right.
For cash assistance, the typical recepient receives help only five months and for food stamps the average period of assistance is only eight months. Source
It's absolute bullshit to claim that freeloaders on welfare is a crippling issue when most people do just the opposite when they are accepting it; they take it when they need it and eventually stop when they're able to.
For cash assistance, the typical recepient receives help only five months and for food stamps the average period of assistance is only eight months. Source
It's absolute bullshit to claim that freeloaders on welfare is a crippling issue when most people do just the opposite when they are accepting it; they take it when they need it and eventually stop when they're able to.
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
But in the context of Rush/Fox's lack of support for Romney, they were supporting conservatism and not a candidate- which is what they are in the business of doing. You explained Romney's nomination in spite of their weak support as evidence that they do not have much influence, which is far from the truth.
Whether or not their morality is enforced through legislation is irrelevant. It is the comfort of believing that the conservative politician is a pure, good person that shares their conservative values which will influence the direction of the country.
You missed the point. e.g. Texas' execution record, or Scott's recent veto.
Let's start in the 60's. What is the average conservative's opinion of the counterculture movement of the'60s? The conservative perspective of social progress is not very different now. On a different level, look at something like last year's NFL lockout. Conservatives by and large supported the NFL. That is because supporting the institution over the individual is a part of the conservative worldview.
TA, your take here is so wildly off the mark...I tried to reply but it felt silly.
(replying to Tim-E)
That source is a decade old. Not that it matters as I am sure the current numbers of TANF + Food stamps does not equal to a lot of money in a person's hand.
But, as I stated there are numerous other tax credits/cuts, programs, benefits and whatnot that put money back into the working (and non-working) poor's hands.
I'm not advocating taking things away or capping what we currently do, but I am saying that there should always be a vigilent eye to not creating or expanding a dependency on government. I've even seen pre-candidate Obama give similar thoughts when speaking to people on self-empowerment and things of that nature in the past.
That source is a decade old. Not that it matters as I am sure the current numbers of TANF + Food stamps does not equal to a lot of money in a person's hand.
But, as I stated there are numerous other tax credits/cuts, programs, benefits and whatnot that put money back into the working (and non-working) poor's hands.
I'm not advocating taking things away or capping what we currently do, but I am saying that there should always be a vigilent eye to not creating or expanding a dependency on government. I've even seen pre-candidate Obama give similar thoughts when speaking to people on self-empowerment and things of that nature in the past.
I agree with you completely on that. I was mostly just referring to the tone and mentality coming from Christie's comments. I live in southern West Virginia and my job has me working with people who accept assitance, and it's somethnig I hear all the time around here and it kind of gets me worked up.
No one can deny that there are people who abuse and milk the system, but anecdotal evidence is what most people base their knowledge of the state of the welfare system on.
platypotamus
Member
Aaron Strife
Banned
The reason superPAC ads aren't going to tarnish Obama's image is because... well, what more can they do? Republicans have been attacking Obama for four years now. I'm sure 99% of America already has a conclusive opinion about him, one way or the other. If nothing else, a lot of people like him personally, even though his job approval breaks about even.
There's very little Romney could do at this point to improve an image. In a neutral environment Obama would smoke him, and he probably still will.
In fact, just to hammer the point home: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/04/11/1082476/-Obama-leads-Romney-by-landslide-numbers
The electoral map based on current polls. As always, everything can change and World War III could start tomorrow, but Romney's got his work cut out for him.
There's very little Romney could do at this point to improve an image. In a neutral environment Obama would smoke him, and he probably still will.
In fact, just to hammer the point home: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/04/11/1082476/-Obama-leads-Romney-by-landslide-numbers
The electoral map based on current polls. As always, everything can change and World War III could start tomorrow, but Romney's got his work cut out for him.
The Librarian
Banned
No it was not. I was merely commenting on Christie's hyperbolic, mismanaged comments, and provided an article to show why he's wrong. There are people who abuse the system, obviously, but my problem was with the comment itself, and any worry of us becoming a "nanny state" where people live from "government check to government check" is absurd.
planar1280
Banned
PhoenixDark
Banned
Negative ads hurt everyone. The question is "how much will/can they hurt Obama." Everyone has an opinion on him by now. Despite the Brietbart crowd's best tries (*giggle*), Obama has already been branded and defined in the minds of most Americans - and most like him personally, regardless of their views on his policies. Yet still, so much of the right's negative ads on Obama still focus on "what does he really believe?" If Rove tries that playbook I don't see it working; no, most Americans don't believe Obama is selling out America's safety to Russia.
But if the plan is to hammer him non-stop with ads on the poor economy, it can be effective; Obama's record on the economy is not impressive, to say the least. Likewise, attacks on the deficit could be effective as well.
Black Mamba
Member
Repubs brought us back to the 6s vis-a-vis birth control and planned parenthood.
Might as well go back to the 50s and bring mack McCarthyism. Retro is in style.
Come August, we'll be seeing the slavery movement in full force.
Might as well go back to the 50s and bring mack McCarthyism. Retro is in style.
Come August, we'll be seeing the slavery movement in full force.
NYT says his ad blitz will be all about the economy.
makingmusic476
Member
I've been playing around with that 270 to win site, and it's starting to hit me just how hard it's going to be for Romney.
Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado seem solidly behind Obama now, and without those, Romney would have to take Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, and Arizona to hit 272.
Of those, only Indiana seems like it'll probably go Romney. Iowa seems to be leaning Romney, and the rest are leaning Obama. Romney has to somehow take them all to win by a mere 6 points.
Something really fucking disastrous has to happen for Obama to lose.
I know this has been said like 1000 times now, but whatever.
Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado seem solidly behind Obama now, and without those, Romney would have to take Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, and Arizona to hit 272.
Of those, only Indiana seems like it'll probably go Romney. Iowa seems to be leaning Romney, and the rest are leaning Obama. Romney has to somehow take them all to win by a mere 6 points.
Something really fucking disastrous has to happen for Obama to lose.
I know this has been said like 1000 times now, but whatever.
The most recent Iowa polls I could find were from February, which had Romney with a slight lead. I'd attribute this to being an after effect of every republican campaign basically living in the state for a year before that. Given some time, I think the state will swing back to Obama.
I'm very curious to see which way Ohio is going to swing. A lot of our economic bounce back came from the auto bailouts and the stimulus. It'll be interesting to see if voters give credit where credit is due.
If Obama wins again, I'm taking off work and getting some popcorn for the RW meltdown on radio and Faux News.
If Obama wins again, I'm taking off work and getting some popcorn for the RW meltdown on radio and Faux News.
Why do you have Arizona as leaning Obama?
I find it really difficult to see Romney taking Virginia. Even during Obama's worse times, he polled decently in Virginia.
And on top of this, Romney really isn't doing any hardcore ground work in these states, he's just riding off the coat tails of local republican campaign offices, unlike Obama who has spent a year building solid groundwork in several key states. Romney is relying on a media blitz of negativity to win this thing and it's going to take a lot more than that to overcome the enourmous electoral college mountain he's going to need to climb to eek out a win.
Invisible_Insane
Member
Romney could take Real Virginia.
The Librarian
Banned
So...West Virginia?
Black Republican
Member
and living in white folks homes again!!
The Librarian
Banned
Is Obama still likely to take one of Nebraska's EVs due to Omaha?
makingmusic476
Member
Because I'm dumb. I added it last second into my list of potential swing states without changing the rest of the post.
Invisible_Insane
Member
Not if the legislature can help it. I don't know how that turned out, but I think I've heard Maddow say that it passed.
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