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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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markatisu

Member
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/fox-poll-romney-by-two

President Obama has had a lead in nearly every nationally poll over the last few weeks, and one reason the Fox poll produces a different result may be the partisan breakdown – independent voters, typically the biggest group in the electorate, make up less than twenty percent of the poll’s sample. Democrats and Republicans are sampled evenly, even though Democrats have historically held an advantage on partisan ID.

LOL there is so much wrong with that

It's also a insight on how bad the GOP is damaged that in order to give the perception Romney is winning or competitive is to exempt the largest voting group AND to even the Democrats who have larger voter registrations in almost every state that matters
 

Cloudy

Banned
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/13/us/politics/obamas-and-bidens-to-release-tax-returns.html?_r=1

WASHINGTON — Punctuating a week of political assaults on Mitt Romney over taxes, President Obama and Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. plan to release their own income tax returns on Friday, along with a statement calling on Mr. Romney to do the same, according to an Obama campaign official.

While Mr. Obama has long acknowledged being in the nation’s high-income echelon, thanks largely to sales of his best-selling books, he and his wife, Michelle, have paid an effective federal tax rate nearly twice that of Mr. Romney and his wife, Ann, according to tax returns released by both couples.

The Obama campaign will post the 2011 tax return for the Obamas, as well as those dating back to 2000, on the campaign’s Web site, an official said. It will also post tax returns for Mr. Biden and his wife, Jill.

This is a pretty good maneuver. Romney has 2 options, release the info and give them something to attack in his non-sanitized returns or open himself up to attacks for not releasing anything lol
 

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
Whats funny is the guy in that video seems more relate-able than "drive a couple of Cadillacs" or "I like being able to fire people" Romney

Yeah, he seems more human, even if he is talking about something only super rich would be able to afford. I don't really see that video as a big negative.
 
"Hey, I can't help it if the only thing women are qualified for is being a Secretary" right?

This was funny, and nobody gave you credit for it.

Corporations have already won. Even the working class has been indoctrinated to talk about how unions are destroying everything.

I had a conversation with a cop who--in the midst of praising his own union lawyer (gee, I wonder what political affiliation that guy is) for getting him a huge disability settlement (guy was fat as fuck) that he didn't have to share because he earned a wage from union dues--railed against unions and how terrible they were.

Not actually a John Edwards moment, but this is the real Romney: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IYbsOC0_E0&feature=player_embedded#!

Thank you, Fox Mole. I feel so sorry for Ann Romney, not being able to ride her dressage horses for four whole weeks. And Hannity's wife has to play tennis every day! The way Romney minced up his voice when he commented on the pink tie just shows what they think of gays. It disgusts me that this is what these guys are like behind the scenes, and yet they want to play at being Joe Everyman publicly.
 

DasRaven

Member
I'm glad that you're familiar with the concepts, but surely none of the instant runoff campaigns or the primary reform you're working on now will have any impact at all on the general election, right? And that is all we're talking about here. (In fact, unless I'm remembering a different event, there's only been one statewide election using IRV so far, for like a judicial seat or something).

Of course strategic voting isn't a positive outcome. The fact is that it's just a necessary, in fact crucial, part of First Past the Post voting. Your potential Libertarian voter doesn't have the option of affirmatively voting his interests no matter how much research he does- unless he actually does prefer one of the major-party candidates- because of the spoiler effect.

Your second paragraph is fundamentally optimistic in a way I wish I could get behind... your voter should look into every party that exists in his country. And it's nothing but a good idea to support those parties and their candidates, and assist in communicating their message more effectively. But actually using his one general election vote on any of them will not serve his interests, and could ultimately benefit the Democrat (who I assume he would prefer win less than the Republican).

I don't know what qualifies as a legitimate party in your eyes, but there were seven parties that appeared on the ballot in Florida in the 2000 election, all of which I'd consider "third" parties :p

I see. We'll just have to agree to disagree on some points.
Thanks for the thoughtful discussion, though. Perhaps we've opened some minds.
 

Chichikov

Member
This was funny, and nobody gave you credit for it.
bLpD2.gif


I agree.
 

Zen

Banned
So does it really look like large portions of Obama's healthcare proposal will be thrown out by the supreme court? Why is there such opposition to it even among democrats?
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Thank you, Fox Mole. I feel so sorry for Ann Romney, not being able to ride her dressage horses for four whole weeks. And Hannity's wife has to play tennis every day! The way Romney minced up his voice when he commented on the pink tie just shows what they think of gays. It disgusts me that this is what these guys are like behind the scenes, and yet they want to play at being Joe Everyman publicly.

Where is that roll-eyes GIF when you need it?

That was pretty damn normal and actually humanizing to me. Owning a horse is just like owning a dog to a lot of people. They end up developing a very strong bond with the horse. Romney could have said, "she just has to get home and play with those dogs. She misses them so much; they are almost therapeutic for her." and you wouldn't think anything of it (or you probably still would, since they would probably not own a mutt... and you obviously hate him way beyond the issues). and who cares what kind of horses he has he didn't bring that part up, Hannity did and was obviously interested in what was a personal conversation between to people. What is much more revealing is how he talks about staying at a cheaper hotel because it would cost him and his campaign that much more. Seems smart with his money. You would expect people worth that much money would tell his staff, "schlepp it up here in the Holiday Inn, Ann and I have the Ritz up the street." Regardless, your comment looks pretty damn stupid.

He shows how he doesn't overlook little things in his finances. Maybe he wont be a terrible candidate after all.............



maybe.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!

He is on women right now, spec. He will just bring up Tina Turner and Whitney Houston. Women who broke away from damaging relationships! Women! Black Women! Sounds like a winner. He will only mention these things north of the Mason Dixon, of course. It is Tammy Wynette in the south, 24/7
 

Nert

Member
I have to say, while I understand the passion and philosophical stance you take with this outlook, it is just deeply flawed in the wake of how our electoral system actually works.

If you feel obligated to vote due to societal norms or whatever- or maybe even a sense of civic duty as a citizen- you have a choice between two parties on the ballot who can actually become President (barring an unprecedented catastrophe like a major party candidate dying a day before election day).

It is at this point that your claim starts to become tenuous- if, and only if, you literally like and dislike the Democrat and the Republican equally, and have absolutely no preference between the two, will your vote for a third-party candidate reflect your actual preferences.

If you do prefer one candidate over the other, then your third-party vote is instead contributing to something called the spoiler effect, a demonstrably real and seriously shitty side effect of First Past the Post (aka "Winner-Take-All") electoral systems.

Here's how it works. On policy and issue stances, third parties tend to align with one of the two candidates more, and the other one much less. Voters attracted to a third-party candidate are overwhelmingly more likely to vote for the major-party candidate that has the most in common with theirs than for the other major candidate. As a result, votes for a given third party are composed largely of voters who would have voted for a specific one of the two major party candidates on the ballot if they were the only options. But when the votes are counted, there is no proportional distribution, and the person with the most votes wins everything, even if that doesn't represent a majority of the voting population.

The end result? Voting for the third-party candidate has the ultimate impact of helping only the major-party candidate who has less in common with the candidate you voted for. And at this point this is obvious to both major parties. It becomes in their best interest to aid certain third parties to the detriment of their opponent. So you have Republicans making anonymous contributions to the Green and Communist parties, and Democrats donating to the Libertarian party, etc., when they start to do well. They know third parties have no chance of winning, so the better they do, the more it benefits their own chances.

This is insane, and it traps us in a two-party system while making it very difficult for the will of the majority of the voting public to be accurately represented. The spoiler effect ensures that one of the two major party candidates will always win, while voters hoping to change the system by voting third party aid only the person on the ballot they have the least in common with.

Your options in the voting booth, if you want your preferences to be accurately represented but don't actually want to elect a Democrat or a Republican, are:

1) Vote strategically: align with the candidate with which you have the most in common and vote for them, hoping to ensure their victory or at least deny a victory to the candidate you dislike more
2) Turn around and go home; your preferences will be reflected in that the total number of votes cast will be lower and both candidates will have to work harder to get a win by having the most of the remaining votes.

This sucks, a lot, but it's the reality of the American voting system. And tragically, this is just the very beginning of the myriad issues with it.

This video summarizes what I talked about here and more, and it's easy to jump from there to other videos explaining what else is wrong and what needs to be done to affect any real change.

I appreciate your response, although I'm familiar with many of the concepts that you are alluding to, including Duverger's Law and our resulting two party system (I was a Poli Sci/Econ major). I'd also prefer to adopt a different voting system than we currently have; the Irish model is pretty close to what I'd want. Unfortunately, change of that nature is unlikely.

I just recognize that my own vote, particularly in the context of presidential elections, has no practical significance. First of all, as you're surely aware, the electoral college prevents your vote from meaning anything unless you reside in a small subset of states that are actually in contention. If I wanted to vote for a Republican candidate for president after I move to California later this year, it would obviously do nothing. If your state is closely contested, one vote still wont alter the election. Even in a nonexistent scenario where the first vote count resulted in a candidate winning by one vote, it would automatically trigger a recount that would likely change the results.

I do believe that my vote can have expressive significance, however. Whether it is a social norm to vote, or a "civic duty," voting can provide people with some kind of moral satisfaction or outlet of expression. I feel more comfortable voting for candidates that most closely represent my views. Because I don't see my vote as having any practical effect, there is no need for me to worry about who has the best chance and adjust my considerations accordingly (to avoid the spoiler effect); picking my second or third favorite choice would result in a lower expressive value. Unless, of course, I could gain the ability to cast the deciding vote; that'd be neat!

The amount of time and energy people put into discussing presidential candidates, deciding between them (if they're undecided), campaigning for them, and then voting for them tends to eclipse the amount of time they spend actually pressuring politicians about specific issues. Even if presidential politics is interesting (I wouldn't lurk in this thread if it wasn't), the country's obsession with it isn't healthy. Seeing more passion behind "get out the vote" campaigns instead of "take action when you want a policy to change" is disheartening.
 

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
Well, your point about the electoral college and the deciding states certainly holds true. I guess I have a habit of considering my own vote, which I'd never cast without consequence. If you're in a state that will have no outcome on the process and have been essentially watching from the sidelines for decades, I can see no objection to voting for moral satisfaction or as an expression of political allegiance. Go for it.

I wouldn't contest your claim about pressure for policy change, either. It affects everyone. It is, as they say, an election year :p
 

Diablos

Member
President Obama has had a lead in nearly every nationally poll over the last few weeks, and one reason the Fox poll produces a different result may be the partisan breakdown – independent voters, typically the biggest group in the electorate, make up less than twenty percent of the poll’s sample.
aogm7.jpg


What a bullshit poll. Indeed, you should not be allowed to call yourself a News organization if you actually are willing to produce something so inaccurate. Fox News = Trolls.

Some things may shift around a little now that Romney is without a doubt going to be the nominee, but that drastic? Naw.

Also, leave it to a former RIAA commie to make such a stupid comment at one of the worst times to do it. I don't think it's going to change much either way, but it's an unnecessary distraction. I also hate Rosen with a passion.
 

Diablos

Member
No one will give a fuck about the Rosen thing in a week or two.

But IF by some chance it happens to erode any Obama support among women and/or independents, no matter how large or small, I will belly laugh at America's stupidity.
 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxZK0spa1yI

HAPPY BIRTHDAY ROMNEYCARE! love it. Holy crap he's awkward when talking about the stage... Come on bro. How sad to have to be ashamed of your biggest accomplishment.

He has nothing else to run on unless the economy tanks.

Most Americans don't actually believe in lowering taxes for the wealthy. Or corporations. Or staying in Iraq/Afghan.

I mean, what does Romney have to run on other than the notion that Obamacare is going to become a huge burden on America and violates our freedoms if the economy keeps picking up (slow as it may be)? For all the talk leading up to the election, the biggest issue I see now is what is the Republican alternative and why would Americans choose it? Like kerry in '04, they're not really offering anything tangible.
 

Averon

Member
President Obama has had a lead in nearly every nationally poll over the last few weeks, and one reason the Fox poll produces a different result may be the partisan breakdown – independent voters, typically the biggest group in the electorate, make up less than twenty percent of the poll’s sample. Democrats and Republicans are sampled evenly, even though Democrats have historically held an advantage on partisan ID.

LOL. Fox had to rig their poll to that extent and still only have Romney lead by two. What does that say about Romney? Nothing good I'd imagine.
 

Tim-E

Member
Going after Romney because he owns horses is absolutely silly. I've known a ton of people who owned horses throughout my life and absolutely none of them could be considered anything more than middle class. I want to beat Romney as much as the next guy, but it just shows that creating faux controversies is done on both ends.
 

Averon

Member
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/fox-news-chief-gingrich-isnt-going-to-get

Fox News Chief: Gingrich ‘Isn’t Going To Get To Come Back’ To Fox
Fox News chief Roger Ailes on Thursday responded to Newt Gingrich’s recent attacks on the network. Gingrich only criticized the conservative network because he’s “trying to get a job at CNN because he knows he isn’t going to get to come back to Fox News,” Ailes said.

Gingrich burnt his bridges at Fox.

What was he thinking? Did frustration and the realization that he lost to Romney made him snap? Even if he'd lost the nomination, at least he'd still be a noticeable figure in GOP circle. Being blacklisted from Fox hurt that possibility severely.
 
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/13/us/politics/obamas-and-bidens-to-release-tax-returns.html?_r=1





This is a pretty good maneuver. Romney has 2 options, release the info and give them something to attack in his non-sanitized returns or open himself up to attacks for not releasing anything lol

Wasn't Kosmo calling for Obama to do just this? Wish granted!

I have seen people joke about Booker being a potential future candidate. He just upped his street cred!

http://www.cnn.com/2012/04/13/us/new-jersey-mayor-rescue/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

Booker is ridiculous.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxZK0spa1yI

HAPPY BIRTHDAY ROMNEYCARE! love it. Holy crap he's awkward when talking about the stage... Come on bro. How sad to have to be ashamed of your biggest accomplishment.

If the campaign is going to produce TV spots like this, it's going to be extremely hard for Romney to respond.

Going after Romney because he owns horses is absolutely silly. I've known a ton of people who owned horses throughout my life and absolutely none of them could be considered anything more than middle class. I want to beat Romney as much as the next guy, but it just shows that creating faux controversies is done on both ends.

...

Well, before I opine further, just how much does it cost to own a horse? And where do these people live?
 

Averon

Member
Dems fold

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/dnc-declares-end-to-phrase-war-on-women

DNC Declares An End To Phrase ‘War On Women’

Slate’s Dave Weigel has a tick-tock of what he calls the birth, life and death of the oft-repeated Democratic talking point “war on women.” After Thursday’s rhetorical battle over CNN contributor Hilary Rosen, Weigel catches the DNC crying uncle on the use of the term:

On Thursday, as the Rosen saga unfolded, DNC communications director Brad Woodhouse echoed her plea for peace. “I’m not a fan of the term,” he said in an interview. “I mean, I’m sure I’ve probably used it. We all fall into these easy vernaculars … but we in the DNC have not been running a campaign based on the term ‘war on Women.’ That’s a myth cooked up by Republicans.”
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
If you do prefer one candidate over the other, then your third-party vote is instead contributing to something called the spoiler effect, a demonstrably real and seriously shitty side effect of First Past the Post (aka "Winner-Take-All") electoral systems.

This is why Gore lost 2000. So many of my mothers friends basically had the attitude of "Gore is going to win, so we're going to vote for Nader, just to make a statement, just to let Gore know that we don't like him too much"
 
Going after Romney because he owns horses is absolutely silly. I've known a ton of people who owned horses throughout my life and absolutely none of them could be considered anything more than middle class. I want to beat Romney as much as the next guy, but it just shows that creating faux controversies is done on both ends.

Going after Obama because he plays Gold is absolutely silly. I know a ton of people who play Golf through the last 6 years of my life working in the US and absolutely none of them could be considered elitist.

I also don't know where the Obama campaign of DNC went after Romney for owning horses. The closest they have come is saying that for a guy who is shopping for a Car Elevator to call Obama out of touch.

In, what would be welcome news for Obama, Oil prices should ease off and are not expected to go up any further.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304444604577339120918427212.html

Of course, Romney is probably getting ready to call his friend...lol

AND, FUCK THE FED. No more action this year to Spur growth.
 

Tim-E

Member
...

Well, before I opine further, just how much does it cost to own a horse? And where do these people live?

I don't know the cost, but I live in West Virginia. It's pretty common for people to own horses here. Families in this state don't make very much, so I'd hardly say West Virginia is full of elitists. I don't really care, either way, I just think it's a silly thing for people to stick to. I also wasn't saying that Obama or the DNC were the ones going after it, just lefties on the internet.
 
I don't know the cost, but I live in West Virginia. It's pretty common for people to own horses here. Families in this state don't make very much, so I'd hardly say West Virginia is full of elitists. I don't really care, either way, I just think it's a silly thing for people to stick to.

Oh, well, that makes sense then.

I get stuck in my own bubble some times. For someone to say they own a horse around here means they have some money.
 
Owning a horse is a lot like owning a car, not all of them are equal. You can get an average quarter horse for around $800, but a horse of rarer breed (or specific bloodline or training) can cost tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars. Either way, it's a much harder argument to make then the one about the car elevator. I mean, who the fuck has a car elevator? Rich guys, that's who
 

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
This is why Gore lost 2000. So many of my mothers friends basically had the attitude of "Gore is going to win, so we're going to vote for Nader, just to make a statement, just to let Gore know that we don't like him too much"
:'(

Living in Broward county, I have a painful, personal recollection of the many ways in which our electoral system failed the people of America that November.

The spoiler effect was in full bloom there with Nader, of course, as you said, but I was also lucky enough to stand by in a public library while my father helped manually recount votes. Dozens- dozens of ballots had to be thrown away while I was standing there even though the intent of the voter was obvious, because of goddamn hanging or incompletely-punched chads. Then of course there was the butterfly ballot being presented to overwhelming numbers of people who forget how to use a remote control on a daily basis... the worst were the ballots with both the Buchanan and Gore bubbles punched (so obviously these had to be thrown out) when you could tell it was a "oh shit, I punched the wrong one, whoops" situation, thinking their most recent punch would be the only one that counted. Ahhh man. Such a deplorable year for democracy.
 

There's really not much the Fed can do. QE isn't really stimulative, because what it accomplishes (increasing bank reserves by swapping assets) does not address the problem (no creditworthy borrowers). And as an empirical matter, banks don't lend based on their reserves, so increasing them will not affect bank behavior. Some in the Fed already recognize this:

Simple textbook treatments of the money multiplier give the quantity of bank reserves a causal role in determining the quantity of money and bank lending and thus the transmission mechanism of monetary policy … Using data from recent decades, we have demonstrated that this simple textbook link is implausible ….

While the institutional facts alone provide compelling support for our view, we also demonstrate empirically that the relationships implied by the money multiplier do not exist in the data for the most liquid and well-capitalized banks. Changes in reserves are unrelated to changes in lending, and open market operations do not have a direct impact on lending. We conclude that the textbook treatment of money in the transmission mechanism can be rejected. Specifically, our results indicate that bank loan supply does not respond to changes in monetary policy through a bank lending channel, no matter how we group the banks …

Since 2008, the Federal Reserve has supplied an enormous quantity of reserve balances relative to historical levels as a result of a set of nontraditional policy actions. These actions were taken to stabilize short-term funding markets and to provide additional monetary policy stimulus at a time when the federal funds rate was at its effective lower bound. The question arises whether or not this unprecedented rise in reserve balances ought to lead to a sharp rise in money and lending. The results in this paper suggest that the quantity of reserve balances itself is not likely to trigger a rapid increase in lending. To be sure, the low level of interest rates could stimulate demand for loans and lead to increased lending, but the narrow, textbook money multiplier does not appear to be a useful means of assessing the implications of monetary policy for future money growth or bank lending.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2010/201041/201041pap.pdf

Monetary policy will not fix low aggregate demand. Only fiscal policy (increased government spending) will work. Or we just twaddle our thumbs for a decade or so with high unemployment and real immeasurable losses to social well-being. Unfortunately, the deficit scaremongers seem to be making a comeback.
 
:'(

Living in Broward county, I have a painful, personal recollection of the many ways in which our electoral system failed the people of America that November.

The spoiler effect was in full bloom there with Nader, of course, as you said, but I was also lucky enough to stand by in a public library while my father helped manually recount votes. Dozens- dozens of ballots had to be thrown away while I was standing there even though the intent of the voter was obvious, because of goddamn hanging or incompletely-punched chads. Then of course there was the butterfly ballot being presented to overwhelming numbers of people who forget how to use a remote control on a daily basis... the worst were the ballots with both the Buchanan and Gore bubbles punched (so obviously these had to be thrown out) when you could tell it was a "oh shit, I punched the wrong one, whoops" situation, thinking their most recent punch would be the only one that counted. Ahhh man. Such a deplorable year for democracy.
Yeah. Nader dicked around and screwed it up for all of us. Perot would've doomed Clinton, but Clinton had infinite Charisma, and Gore had lvl 20 lockbox.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
:'(

Living in Broward county, I have a painful, personal recollection of the many ways in which our electoral system failed the people of America that November.

The spoiler effect was in full bloom there with Nader, of course, as you said, but I was also lucky enough to stand by in a public library while my father helped manually recount votes. Dozens- dozens of ballots had to be thrown away while I was standing there even though the intent of the voter was obvious, because of goddamn hanging or incompletely-punched chads. Then of course there was the butterfly ballot being presented to overwhelming numbers of people who forget how to use a remote control on a daily basis... the worst were the ballots with both the Buchanan and Gore bubbles punched (so obviously these had to be thrown out) when you could tell it was a "oh shit, I punched the wrong one, whoops" situation, thinking their most recent punch would be the only one that counted. Ahhh man. Such a deplorable year for democracy.

Sometimes I wonder what the political dialogue in this country right now would look like without eight years of Bush
 
https://twitter.com/#!/search/#CoryBookerStories

Cory Booker Stories

Some of these are good...

The Human Genome Project asked Cory Booker for a strand of hair for cloning in case of apocalypse. He shaved his head.

When @corybooker goes into a restaurant, the waiters tip him.

Emperor Palpatine ‏ @LordPalpatine Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Cory Booker doesn't tap into the Force, the Force taps into Cory Booker. #CoryBookerStories

After the incident, Smoke was treated for Cory Booker exposure. #CoryBookerStories
 
Now that's how you go after Romney's BS. That was brutal.

This election is ironic in a way that we probably won't see again in our lifetime.

I didn't think I could have any less respect for the Republican Party, but nominating Romney against Obama, after these years of incessant bitching and moaning about HCR, is a particularly offensive slap in the face of our national politics.
 
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