Invisible_Insane
Member
Not electorally.
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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread
- Thread starter AlteredBeast
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speculawyer
Member
If I were him, I'd not talk about the issue at all. He got rid of DADT. Romney wants to bring it back. Romney is on board for banning all gay marriage. We know where the two stand, no need to further talk about the issue. Gay marriage is a certainty in due time.
Yeah, I know, many will call that cowardice. Whatever. A pragmatic politician in office can do far more than an idealist on the sideline.
That's kind of why I doubt it's going to happen.
It would get young people back in the voting booth in November.
The people who would not vote for someone specifically because of this issue wouldn't vote for Obama either way, so he might as well. It's obviously an issue I think he supports in private, but he just comes off as weak when he dances around it with his "evolving" talk. Might as well take a stance and not pussyfoot around it because I think that draws just as much negative attention.
Yes, but you've got to play offense somewhere, and I still think Obama being on the ballot is going to help, not hurt. If Romney starts tanking I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama put some money into Indiana.
As someone who lives here in Indiana, I don't think the core of the state has really changed. You're going to see this state getting redder in the State House and you're not going to see any Congressional Districts flip back to blue that are Republican held right now, but that's due to Republicans redrawing the maps for both those.
Invisible_Insane
Member
Based on what evidence?
That's not really the issue. Putting marriage equality on the DNC platform is handing values voters a club to beat them with, and is likely to drive up turnout among social conservatives a la 2004.
Yup and with women and the Hispanic vote it would counter any mobilization on the religious side
Not to mention the religious power center resides in a lot of states Obama won't win anyway.
Gay Marriage is not going to turn states like Ohio and Iowa. If you think it will you would do good to read Nate Silver's article about gay marriage and the 50 states (polling and reactions to it)
It's possible, but I think Obama has a pretty safe electoral coushion to fall back on. I'd rather him be honest about how he feels instead of coming off as weak for not taking a position one way or the other.
The Librarian
Banned
Anecdotal for sure, but a lot of first-time voters in the 18-29 bracket came out and voted during the primaries here in NC. But that may not apply as an issue with others rather than by itself.
Hope so, it'll be way more interesting if it is close. I just don't really see it but then down here in the 6th it's as red as red can be.
cartoon_soldier
Member
I am on the side that Obama shouldn't come out in support either. We saw how NC voted, and even though national polling might show support for gay marriage right now, it never translates to the voting booth.
I am not really sure this would help him in the swing states of Ohio, VA, NC, Florida at all, and probably hurt him a bit in PA (but probably not enough to make it a swing state)
I am not really sure this would help him in the swing states of Ohio, VA, NC, Florida at all, and probably hurt him a bit in PA (but probably not enough to make it a swing state)
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
I'm 100% for gay marriage to be legal, but that seems like a disaster in an election year. Wouldn't it weaken some of Obama's support in the black community as well as riling up the elderly and the evangelicals? It seems like something you do after you've secured a second term.
edit: Not to mention that the Hispanic vote consists mostly of Catholics.
edit: Not to mention that the Hispanic vote consists mostly of Catholics.
Invisible_Insane
Member
You mean the 2012 Democratic primary? Or 2008? In any case, I'm not sure I see how that touches on what I'm saying--I don't think there's very many people who are going to be driven to the polls by Obama's support for gay marriage, but I can see the opposite being true.
People complain that he lacks conviction because he won't take a stance on the issue, yet I fully expect people to complain if he does come out for it because it is politically dangerous. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. In this case, I'd like to see some honesty because this issue isn't going away.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I'm torn on this.
Obama coming out for gay marriage might not go well with voters in like, NC and Florida.
On the other hand, I feel like anyone who would seriously have this be an issue would vote for Romney anyway.
And he might swing black voters for the issue.
So yeah, go for it, Barack!
Obama coming out for gay marriage might not go well with voters in like, NC and Florida.
On the other hand, I feel like anyone who would seriously have this be an issue would vote for Romney anyway.
And he might swing black voters for the issue.
So yeah, go for it, Barack!
So Lugar lost the Indiana primary, which is pretty disappointing because he's significantly less crazy than Mourdock, but I suppose this gives Donnelly a better chance that he would have going against Lugar. Are there any polls out there showing Mourdock vs Donnelly?
Yeah, I don't like Mitch Daniels, but at least he can be reasonable pretty often and is fairly moderate compared to the rest of his party. Pence is going to be a goddamn nightmare.
Yeah, I don't like Mitch Daniels, but at least he can be reasonable pretty often and is fairly moderate compared to the rest of his party. Pence is going to be a goddamn nightmare.
PPP is not optimistic regarding national gay marriage support
@ppppolls
Hate to say it but I don't believe polls showing majority support for gay marriage nationally. Any time there's a vote it doesn't back it up
National poll we did last weekend found 37% for gay marriage, 29% civil unions, 28% no recognition...
Think the straight gay marriage v. no recognition question with no civil unions option is probably about 42-52 nationally.
We've asked in almost every state in the country. Few support gay marriage
@ppppolls
Hate to say it but I don't believe polls showing majority support for gay marriage nationally. Any time there's a vote it doesn't back it up
National poll we did last weekend found 37% for gay marriage, 29% civil unions, 28% no recognition...
Think the straight gay marriage v. no recognition question with no civil unions option is probably about 42-52 nationally.
We've asked in almost every state in the country. Few support gay marriage
End of March, showed them tied at 35% with the rest undecided.
WRT to the gay marriage endorsement (or lack thereof) there's a lot more to it than Obama's own reelection chances - namely, down-ticket Dems and how they have to position themselves in relation to the president and the party.
I'm gay, but I'm pragmatic. Save the political capital for concrete policy results, not symbolism.
I'm gay, but I'm pragmatic. Save the political capital for concrete policy results, not symbolism.
Bulbo Urethral Baggins
Banned
Is this going to be just another evolution of Obama's position on gay marriage, or will he finally come out in support? Any bets?
I'm saying he'll still be vague.
Btw, That NC vote yesterday was fucked up.
Didn't Obama support civil unions while campaigning last time? DADT is over and the White House no longer defends DOMA, so they've already had plenty of ammo to say he's a sympathizer for gay people. If people were going to care about gay rights, they'd already be mad over those issues.
cartoon_soldier
Member
But there are a lot of people who support civil unions and stuff but not marriage. this will motivate people in the right wing and turn off socially conservative democrats, or socially conservative swing voters that otherwise share Dem economic outlook.
Wasn't there some talk of dems trying to include gay marriage as a part of the official platform at the convention? Regardless, the issue's out there and I think seeing a sitting president in an election year come out for a controversial issue would show some balls and would be incredibly commendable despite it being politically dangerous. He's not very good at dancing around this issue when pressed about it, so might as well get it out of the way now and not sometime closer to the election.
Invisible_Insane
Member
The issue isn't going away, but it'll be a much easier issue to deal with in two or three years. I don't see any reason to complicate this general election over it, though; the adminstration will likely have just as much (read: none, congress lol) power to deal with the issue if they don't make it an explicit part of the platform.
Besides, given all the state-level constitutional amendments on the matter, I think marriage equality is ultimately going to come from the Supreme Court.
Wow, so Donnelly might actually stand a chance? I wouldn't have really minded too much if he lost to Lugar, but I really don't want Mourdock to win.
Bulbo Urethral Baggins
Banned
I agree with TimE. He has to say something. Dancing around it especially with all the debates coming up just won't work any more. He has to come out.
For Democrats, this campaign is going to be about getting the vote out. So, I won't be surprised to see Obama take very public stands on issues that affect homosexuals, hispanics and the youth. He has much more to gain in re-energizing them than he does in losing some fence-sitters.
That's really the only way Obama can lose. Apathy.
That's really the only way Obama can lose. Apathy.
Take a look at my thoughts on the last page. I don't think it's likely just because of resource allocation on a national level but he at least has an outside shot, unlike if Lugar had won.
jamesinclair
Banned
...
Read his user name, then read the second paragraph of the linked story again.
I like to remain anonymous on the webs
Yup. They can no longer have it both ways. By moving closer and closer to endorsing gay marriage - through the administration's repeated moves toward equalizing rights, and not defending DOMA in court, DADT, etc. - Obama has narrowed the gap between his position and support for gay marriage that he's actually got less wiggle room than he did before. He's in the position of supporting in everything but name only, but there's a LOT in that name.
TA's point on voter engagement is a good one. I really don't think this will sway many votes, but it may motivate turnout (on both sides).
yeah, I just caught up on the discussion. I'm pretty sure that I agree that Mourdock is most likely to win, but let's hope Donnelly can win. My friend's mom was running the poll here and she said there was pretty abysmal turnout, so I'm thinking a lot of the moderate Republicans just stayed home. Hopefully they'll show up in the GE and vote Donnelly.
bah, Andy Horning 2012!
Bulbo Urethral Baggins
Banned
Yep. Like TA, I don't much of a political liability for coming out in support. I don't think he will see a loss in the black or catholic Hispanic or religious voter AT ALL over this issue. I'd have a lot more respect for him if he does this.
cartoon_soldier
Member
ABC Airing a special report at 3pm
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/abc-to-air-special-report-at-3-pm
A special report has to mean, its a YES LET EM ALL MARRY
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/abc-to-air-special-report-at-3-pm
A special report has to mean, its a YES LET EM ALL MARRY
I think if he does come out in full support of it the Republican line will likely be "He's trying to make the conversation not about the economy!" I don't really see the establishment going full on against the actual support of gay marriage, which means the conversation will be a bit different, and I think it'll catch different people than otherwise.
Younger voters will likely be more invigorated, since they're typically a bit more social oriented, though I think some of the very disillusioned ones may think he's only posturing for political gain during an election. Older voters who are staunchly against it won't be voting for him anyways. There is a bit of a risk of igniting the older voters who may have been soured on Romney, though, but I think that's a smaller risk since those older voters already tend to vote a lot more consistently anyway (meaning they would have voted for Romney anyway, despite beings soured on him).
I'm not sure Mitt himself could ever bring this up in a debate or anything, though, considering the thing PD posted a few pages ago. He's got his own history on the other side, and I doubt he wants to remind evangelicals.
Younger voters will likely be more invigorated, since they're typically a bit more social oriented, though I think some of the very disillusioned ones may think he's only posturing for political gain during an election. Older voters who are staunchly against it won't be voting for him anyways. There is a bit of a risk of igniting the older voters who may have been soured on Romney, though, but I think that's a smaller risk since those older voters already tend to vote a lot more consistently anyway (meaning they would have voted for Romney anyway, despite beings soured on him).
I'm not sure Mitt himself could ever bring this up in a debate or anything, though, considering the thing PD posted a few pages ago. He's got his own history on the other side, and I doubt he wants to remind evangelicals.
The Librarian
Banned
Agreed. I don't think this would be happening otherwise.
Edit: If this happens, I have to give credit to Biden. I think he purposefully said what he said last Sunday to force Obama's hand.
I read a piece about Obama a while back looking at his leadership style. Obama said something along the lines of, presidents are rarely successful at pushing this kind of major social change. Rather, they preside over periods of change, respond to it and help facilitate it. (Not agreeing or disagreeing, just noting the governing philosophy.) That seems to align with Obama's approach to this: he's not out ahead of public opinion, he's been updating policy to keep pace (or even lag) public opinion. But in this case, I think he's more or less backed himself into a corner: his policy direction leads in one direction (and public opinion is moving the same way), and he's got to draw the line at some point. I have a hard time imagining how he can draw this out much further.
Let teh gay flow. I hope he does the right thing.
.
I think it's smart. It shifts focus off of the economy (something he can't control) and gives the GOP a rope to hang itself with. I'm guessing the GOP will fall hook line and sinker and shift into overdrive on social issues.
Black Republican
Member
i await the bittertears from some black voters if obama comes out for this
and im black..
and im black..
Aaron Strife
Banned
I can't imagine they're doing a special report based on Obama re-iterating his past support for civil unions, and then stopping short of marriage equality.
Fingers crossed. Should buoy O'Malley or Cuomo in 2016, also, if he wins in spite of this (or because of?).
Fingers crossed. Should buoy O'Malley or Cuomo in 2016, also, if he wins in spite of this (or because of?).
And if the economy does keep improving to where Obama would want to talk about it, doing this now makes the talk of social issues seem more and more like "yesterday's news" the closer the election comes. Makes it easier to paint Republicans as trying to distract from the issues. If it were closer to the election it'd still be "recent" and harder to shift narrative away from.
Speaking of, the media will love if he does support gay marriage. Oh, the narrative building opportunities! The poll swings that are absolutely certain to happen and then don't! The "unaccounted-for variables" that let them still pretend the election is close in states that are nowhere near close!
What did Biden say last Sunday?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/154529/Half-Americans-Support-Legal-Gay-Marriage.aspx
57% of independents support gay marriage. I honestly don't see their being too much electoral backlash from this. He may end up losing NC and FL, but he doesn't need them.
57% of independents support gay marriage. I honestly don't see their being too much electoral backlash from this. He may end up losing NC and FL, but he doesn't need them.
Invisible_Insane
Member
Think downticket. It doesn't matter if Obama edges left on this if it sends every swing-state conservative democrat shrieking to the right.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
He went off script. It was something he was supposed to say in december after Obama is reelected. Now that the cat is out of the bag, talk radio and punditry is going to get really strange for the next month or two.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Moving New Mexico to Lean Romney if he supports it.
empty vessel
Member
Not without being forced by an organized public.
Well, I don't know about it as a governing philosophy, but I think it's an empirical description of what actually happens. It is people on the ground making demands that cause the change over which presidents "preside," to which they "respond," and which they "facilitate" (often very reluctantly, e.g., JFK's relationship with the civil rights movement).
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