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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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T

Triton55

Member
Oblivion said:
http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2012/5/17
Click to expand...

Since when are Native Americans Republicans?? According to this 34% of American Indians reported they plan to switch to voting against Obama because of gay marriage? I'm sure it's significantly overstated in the poll results as by November people will be caring more about the economy and other things, but this just seems really weird to me.

Has to be a case of small sample size for that demographic, in fact yeah that has to be it.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Politico's front page reads like a Romney re-election campaign HQ today morning

GOP Targets Biden gaffes
GOP realizes Romney can win
Tech world cools on Obama
Obama's region of doom
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Romney's Bain response this week is also a video showing people affected by the current economy blaming it on Obama.

That is of course the slippery slope with the Bain attack for Obama. Whether that actually works with the public or not, we will have to see, the people in the videos are already voting against Obama, will they convince swing/fence/independent voters that Obama is really to blame for everything that happened to them during the economy or not?

Also, Priorities USA, upped their Bain campaign by another 3 million dollars to total 7 million. Significant now and points to much better May numbers.
 
E

eznark

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Yeah, all the recent Wisconsin polls have been in conjunction with the recall, and there's more enthusiasm among conservatives.
Click to expand...

Which is why the national party was pissed about the recalls. This gives a ton of momentum to the GOP in Wisconsin and already the Senatorial candidates are linking themselves to Walker in every way they can. This is going to provide a ton of momentum for conservatives in the state should they be able to keep Walker in the race.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
eznark said:
Which is why the national party was pissed about the recalls. This gives a ton of momentum to the GOP in Wisconsin and already the Senatorial candidates are linking themselves to Walker in every way they can. This is going to provide a ton of momentum for conservatives in the state should they be able to keep Walker in the race.
Click to expand...

I gotta agree with this. Democrats dun goofed in the cheese state. Should've just built an unstoppable ground game for election instead of trying to throw Walker's ass out.
 
P

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
cartoon_soldier said:
Romney's Bain response this week is also a video showing people affected by the current economy blaming it on Obama.

That is of course the slippery slope with the Bain attack for Obama. Whether that actually works with the public or not, we will have to see, the people in the videos are already voting against Obama, will they convince swing/fence/independent voters that Obama is really to blame for everything that happened to them during the economy or not?

Also, Priorities USA, upped their Bain campaign by another 3 million dollars to total 7 million. Significant now and points to much better May numbers.
Click to expand...


Romney was going to be making those ads whether Obama brought up Bain or not. It's the only way he has a chance of taking the White House.
 
I

Invisible_Insane

Member
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Bulbo Urethral Baggins said:
Pro-choicers at record low levels

Nothing to do with what you guys are talking about, but I found this interesting (and a little surprising). Only 41% of Americans call themselves pro-choice now. 50% pro-life.
Click to expand...

Most believe abortion should be legal too

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/poll-pro-choice-americans-reach-new-low-but

52 percent of those surveyed believe that abortion should be legal under certain circumstances. Only 20 percent believe it should be illegal in all circumstances, while 25 percent believe abortion should be legal under all circumstances.
Click to expand...

Considering Romney is for a constitutional amendment for life at conception, guess what the consequence of that is.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Question is, Are you pro-choice or pro-file?

A lot of people that identify themselves as pro-life but are saying Abortion shouldn't be illegal.

The question should always be, do you believe in a Woman's right to choose when it comes to abortions.
 
E

eznark

Banned
Wait, so looking at the historical numbers, the Democrats really just fell in to the norm, at about 60%, which is where they've been for most of the last decade. For some reason that jumped up to 68% last year. Weird.


The question should always be, do you believe in a Woman's right to choose when it comes to abortions.
Click to expand...
Stop biasing the question unless you bias it in my favor!
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
eznark said:
Wait, so looking at the historical numbers, the Democrats really just fell in to the norm, at about 60%, which is where they've been for most of the last decade. For some reason that jumped up to 68% last year. Weird.



Stop biasing the question unless you bias it in my favor!
Click to expand...

Ok, then just ask whether Abortion should be legal or illegal.
 
E

eznark

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
Ok, then just ask whether Abortion should be legal or illegal.
Click to expand...

They do

wqicvjb40esdgf8y9ci0qa.gif
 
K

Kosmo

Banned
Side note, my favorite abortion quote:

The Left believes in cradle-to-the-grave assistance, it's just sometimes really tricky making it to the cradle.
Click to expand...

I'm pro-choice, or at least sensible (none of this late term, yank the kid out by the neck, stuff).
 
J

Jackson50

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Most believe abortion should be legal too

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/poll-pro-choice-americans-reach-new-low-but



Considering Romney is for a constitutional amendment for life at conception, guess what the consequence of that is.
Click to expand...
Right. The terms are fairly elastic. If you look at how Americans label their position, the movement seems substantial. But the underlying attitudes demonstrate less fluctuation. Indeed, as Gallup notes: "However, it is notable that while Americans’ labeling of their position has changed, their fundamental views on the issue have not." And most Americans favor legalized abortion under certain circumstances.
 
E

eznark

Banned
I think they should ask the following two questions:

- "Do you hate women and want to punish them with a fleshy, screaming leg shackle for being sluts"
- "Do you approve of murdering babies"

90% of Americans are suddenly pro-lifechoice (is it sad I feel like 5% will say yes to both questions?)


Jackson50 said:
Right. The terms are fairly elastic. If you look at how Americans label their position, the movement seems substantial. But the underlying attitudes demonstrate less fluctuation. Indeed, as Gallup notes: "However, it is notable that while Americans’ labeling of their position has changed, their fundamental views on the issue have not." And most Americans favor legalized abortion under certain circumstances.
Click to expand...

Yeah, really this is only interesting from a statistical standpoint. Did Obama say the phrase "I'm pro choice" or something last year? I don't get the 2011 outlier among Democrats. Was there some republican push for abortion bans last year (more than normal?)
 
B

Blergmeister

Member
Kevitivity said:
Tell me about it. This is like econ 101 level stuff.
Click to expand...

You guys are talking past each other. What You are talking about is "wealth" and what they are talking about is monetary creation. The government creates all the dollars in the country. Every single one. The only reason investors have dollars to put toward the Facebook IPO is because the government made a bunch of dollars. If there were no dollars investors would invest somthing else into the IPO, but having dollars makes this all easier. The private sector creates value, the government creates money. Empty Vessel is implying that the government is not creating enough money to keep up with the demand of dollars in the US, due to population growth, etc, and that the the government should create more dollars and push them into the economy through government spending on social programs like universal healthcare.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
For some positive economic news, sales of existing homes and new homes increased in April.
eznark said:
Yeah, really this is only interesting from a statistical standpoint. Did Obama say the phrase "I'm pro choice" or something last year? I don't get the 2011 outlier among Democrats. Was there some republican push for abortion bans last year (more than normal?)
Click to expand...
There was a raft of anti-abortion laws in state legislatures last year after the Republican wave. The increase in issue salience may have caused the spike. Otherwise, I'm not sure.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
In other news, Gas prices continue to fall.
North Carolina motorists traveling over the Memorial Day weekend should find gasoline prices well below what they were this time last year.

In the Triad, the average price of regular, unleaded gasoline was $3.50 a gallon on Tuesday, compared with $3.73 a gallon on May 22, 2011, according to AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report.

Statewide, the average price was $3.55 a gallon, down 36 cents since a peak price of $3.91 on April 6 this year, and down 22 cents a gallon from $3.77 a gallon on May 22 last year.

Boone has the highest prices in the state at $3.76 on average, and High Point has the cheapest gas at $3.45.

AAA Carolinas, an affiliate of the American Automobile Association, expects an estimated 884,000 motorists in the state to start traveling on Thursday for the Memorial Day weekend, up 2.2 percent from last year.

“Sharply declining gasoline prices, a slight improvement in the economy and a desire to spend the holiday with family and friends means more vehicles on the road this year,” said David E. Parsons, the chief executive and president of AAA Carolinas.
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Thank fuck Chicago is finally under $4.00/gal.
 
E

eznark

Banned
Jackson50 said:
For some positive economic news, sales of existing homes and new homes increased in April. There was a raft of anti-abortion laws in state legislatures last year after the Republican wave. The increase in issue salience may have caused the spike. Otherwise, I'm not sure.
Click to expand...

Planned Parenthood stuff maybe. Either way, weird spike. Doesn't seem like an issue people would make sudden changes or have drastic shifts on.
 
empty vessel

empty vessel

Member
Kevitivity said:
That's not true at all, empty vessel. The private sector creates (and loses) financial assets all the time without the need for government to inject (or take away) anything. For example Facebook this week raised $16 billion in it's IPO at ~ $30/share. That share price could skyrocket like Apple's or Google's (both over $500), creating many more billions. All the government has to do is make sure everyone plays by the book.
Click to expand...

Stock is a financial asset but it is not money. Goods are not money. Services are not money. Wealth is not money. Money is money. I agree that facebook creates wealth (well, allegedly, anyway). I did not say that government is responsible for all wealth creation. It supplies financial assets--money--that people use in the economy to create and exchange wealth. If the government stops creating more money, what happens to the value of goods and services--in monetary terms--as wealth and the population increases? Money becomes scarcer and their price drops. This is deflation. When money becomes scarcer, demand for credit increases. What industry benefits from that? When debt loads in the private sector become unsustainable from too much borrowing due to the scarcity of money, what happens? A balance sheet recession.

Kevitivity said:
It sounds like you're confusing the number of physical (numismatic) money in circulation with the size if the economy as a whole.
Click to expand...

I think that is what you are doing. I am merely stating the truism that a growing economy needs injections of more money to avoid deflation.

Kevitivity said:
Can you clarify two points? Are you saying the only way to grow GDP is through government spending? Second, how does government debt factor into your equation?
Click to expand...

First question: yes, because deflation will slow an economy until it eventually grinds to a halt.

Second question: Government debt does not factor into the equation at all. The government's decision to issue bonds is totally optional and has no more than a marginal relationship to spending. The government does not need to borrow the currency it is empowered to create at will. I do not look at government debt as a borrowing program, but rather as a national bank that the government operates. People deposit money in the bank and later receive it back plus interest. It's basically a subsidy program for those who can afford to save.

Note that this is not to say that the government can inject into the economy (spend) as much money as it wants without consequence. Just as deflation is a consequence of too few dollars circulating after too many goods, inflation is a consequence of too many dollars circulating after too few goods. The government's spending should be whatever amount is necessary to optimize the economy between these two points (price stability and full employment--because unemployment represents economic loss).

Also note, the government is not limited in its optimization of the economy to spending. It also has the power to tax money out of the economy. So it has an accelerator (spending) and a brake (tax). (Although they can work vice versa as well, i.e., reductions in spending operate as a brake and reductions in taxes operate as an accelerator.)
 
spandexmonkey

spandexmonkey

Banned
Those pro-choice/pro-life numbers have some interesting parallels with prohibition (yes I just watched the Ken Burns film). A lot of the dries were opposed to saloons, family violence, and the worst parts of drinking, but didn't have any issue with a little wine or beer. When prohibition struck down all forms of drinking it pushed a number of moderate dries to go wet.
 
Kevitivity

Kevitivity

Member
Blergmeister said:
You guys are talking past each other. What You are talking about is "wealth" and what they are talking about is monetary creation. The government creates all the dollars in the country. Every single one. The only reason investors have dollars to put toward the Facebook IPO is because the government made a bunch of dollars.
Click to expand...

Again, not true at all. Those initial FB investors could have easily got their money from other successful investments. I've done this myself - made money on an investment and then in term used those earnings to make more investments.

The private sector creates assets all the time, every day, without the government creating anything. The amount of paper money in circulation is an entirely unrelated issue.
 
B

Blergmeister

Member
Kevitivity said:
Again, not true at all. Those initial FB investors could have easily got their money from other successful investments. I've done this myself - made money on an investment and then in term used those earnings to make more investments.

The private sector creates assets all the time, every day, without the government creating anything. The amount of paper money in circulation is an entirely unrelated issue.
Click to expand...

Your skipping steps here. The initial FB investors who used other investments to fund their FB investment went through a few steps: First they converted their initial investments into dollars, then they invested those dollars into Facebook. Yes, the private sector creates assets/wealth all the time, but all those assets and wealth are valued in government dollars. I can't bring in my share of Facebook to the supermarket and leave with food, I need to convert that into dollars, and every dollar in the economy is created by the government. I'm not saying that the government creates wealth by creating money. That is a different, but related, thing.
 
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