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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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My only point is that empty vessel is wrong when he says the ONLY way to grow an economy is for government to print bills. I should not have let you sidetrack our conversation.

Numismatic money is more of a convenience tool, and doesn't represent the economy as a whole. Our GDP is much much larger than the number of paper bills and coins in circulation.

What do you measure GDP in?

My point is that US Dollars printed by the US Government are so intrinsically linked to our economy that it makes you seem to not understand the basics of our economy with the way you outright dismiss the Governments role?

My overall impression of you here is that you are so opposed to some of the things that the Federal Government does that you are trying to find a way to ignore the bare bones basic things it does to help our economy.
 

Kosmo

Banned
What does this latest "vetting" from Breibart's minions suppose to prove? That Obama participated in a 4th of July parade in colonial garb? Doesn't that run counter to the image that Obama's some anti-American Marxist/Communist/Nazi?

It certainly doesn't make Obama a hypocrite, since he never criticized the Tea Party for wearing colonial clothing.

It really as nothing to do with Obama. It is more a vetting of the media and that, when it comes to Obama, they don't give two shits about trying to dig up anything about his past. Yet with someone like GWB, they were willing to go so far as present documents they knew were forged (Dan Rather).

Nothing, it's supposed to attract readers.

And this.
 
It really as nothing to do with Obama. It is more a vetting of the media and that, when it comes to Obama, they don't give two shits about trying to dig up anything about his past. Yet with someone like GWB, they were willing to go so far as present documents they knew were forged (Dan Rather).

Perhaps they learned after what happened to Rather?

That being said, wasn't there a study that during the recent primaries most news coverage of Obama was negative?
 

Kevitivity

Member
What do you measure GDP in?

GDP is always the value of all officially recognized final goods and services in the country.

My point is that US Dollars printed by the US Government are so intrinsically linked to our economy that it makes you seem to not understand the basics of our economy with the way you outright dismiss the Governments role?

My overall impression of you here is that you are so opposed to some of the things that the Federal Government does that you are trying to find a way to ignore the bare bones basic things it does to help our economy.

You are reading far too much into my issue with empty vessel. As I've said before, my only point is that empty vessel is wrong when he says the ONLY way to grow an economy is to printing paper money. That's all I'm saying man, nothing more.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Well you also stated that wealth is "created," and that is, "like, econ 101," man. There are number of insurmountable, brainwashed issues you need to overcome, the least of which is the number of ways to grow GDP.
 
You are reading far too much into my issue with empty vessel. As I've said before, my only point is that empty vessel is wrong when he says the ONLY way to grow an economy is to printing paper money. That's all I'm saying man, nothing more.

Looking back at what EV said, "dollar bills, y'all" I could see what you are trying to say. But knowing EV, he meant government creating money, not necessarily physical coins or paper. Although this has been pointed out to you several times.
 
Yet another poll showing disgruntled Latino voters leaving Obama in droves

In this survey, Obama holds a 34-point lead over Romney among registered Latino voters, 61 to 27 percent. In 2008, according to the exit polls, Obama defeated McCain among this key voting bloc, 67 to 31 percent.

In addition, Obama’s approval rating among all Latino adults stands at 61 percent (compared with 48 percent of all Americans in the new NBC/WSJ poll), and approval of his handling of the economy is at 54 percent (versus 43 percent overall).

Meanwhile, Romney is struggling with Latinos, the poll shows. Just 26 percent view him positively, while 35 percent see him in a negative light. By comparison, Obama’s positive/negative score among Latinos is 58/23 percent.
 

Chumly

Member
Looking back at what EV said, "dollar bills, y'all" I could see what you are trying to say. But knowing EV, he meant government creating money, not necessarily physical coins or paper. Although this has been pointed out to you several times.
It's been pointed out a dozen times and he keeps trying to avoid/twist into making himself right
 

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
It really as nothing to do with Obama. It is more a vetting of the media and that, when it comes to Obama, they don't give two shits about trying to dig up anything about his past. Yet with someone like GWB, they were willing to go so far as present documents they knew were forged (Dan Rather).

Oh shut the fuck up. Seriously.
 

Kevitivity

Member
Looking back at what EV said, "dollar bills, y'all" I could see what you are trying to say. But knowing EV, he meant government creating money, not necessarily physical coins or paper. Although this has been pointed out to you several times.

I was kind of hoping EV would clarify what he was saying. He has said "dollar bills" as well as just "spending'. Either way, neither are the ONLY way to grow GDP as he suggested.
 
I know I won't be happy with the media till someone on Fox news is fired for making some stupid shit up about Obama's past. Only then will I feel that he has been properly vetted to the standards that we hold today. I mean you can't run for office today if not all stories, no matter how far fetch nor removed from the issues of the day, have been aired. Just yesterday I heard that he might have been born immaculately, but it was obviously in Kenya.
 
6 percent drop from 2008, while the republican gets a 4 percent increase. Things are moving in the right direction for Romney
You're right, 27 is more than 31.

So when you say Romney will win does that also mean the opposite to a sensible person? Or will you just stick to your guns on that one?
 

ToxicAdam

Member
6 percent drop from 2008, while the republican gets a 4 percent increase. Things are moving in the right direction for Romney

While PD mistakenly said 'increase', he is correct in identifying that the story here is that Obama has less support than he once did.

Now that could rectify itself by the general election, but Obama is going to need all the support he can get among hispanics, women and the youth to offset the major losses he is going to have among white males.

This election is going to come down to turnout for Obama.
 
25 BILLION?

Fixed

While PD mistakenly said 'increase', he is correct in identifying that the story here is that Obama has less support than he once did.

Now that could rectify itself by the general election, but Obama is going to need all the support he can get among hispanics, women and the youth to offset the major losses he is going to have among white males.

This election is going to come down to turnout for Obama.

Obama has less support than he did in all National Polls right now (44-47%). Everybody hasn't decided how they are voting. Most pollsters believe Romney needs to be near 40%.
 
While PD mistakenly said 'increase', he is correct in identifying that the story here is that Obama has less support than he once did.

Now that could rectify itself by the general election, but Obama is going to need all the support he can get among hispanics, women and the youth to offset the major losses he is going to have among white males.

This election is going to come down to turnout for Obama.
True that it's a decrease, it's a pretty negligible one when you consider undecideds.

They'll probably align themselves 65-35 or something similar, enough to cushion Obama's losses with white males.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
While PD mistakenly said 'increase', he is correct in identifying that the story here is that Obama has less support than he once did.

Now that could rectify itself by the general election, but Obama is going to need all the support he can get among hispanics, women and the youth to offset the major losses he is going to have among white males.

This election is going to come down to turnout for Obama.


Didn't Obama have like over 330 EVs last election? Isn't it okay if he lost some support relative to the last election? The game is the first to 270.
 

Snake

Member
Obama has lost 8.9% of his latino support since 2008 according to this poll, while the Republican challenger has 12.9% less latino support compared to 2008.

Obama truly is doomed.
 
Why are we judging against a year where the GOP brand was so damaged that anyone could have been elected? I do not think Obama will ever achieve the numbers he did in 2008, especially with the country more partisan than ever. In fact, I find it more surprising that his numbers haven't deteriorated further. He is more popular than he should be.
 
A new poll of Arizona from Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows likly Republican presidential nominee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney ahead by 7 points overall, 50 percent to 43 percent over President Obama in the southwestern state. President Obama’s approval rating is well underwater, as only 41 percent of Arizonans polled approve of the job he’s doing while 56 percent disapprove.

“Barack Obama’s chances of winning Arizona don’t look as good as they did 3 months ago,” said Dean Debnam, president of PPP said in a release. “Conservatives have consolidated some around Mitt Romney since he wrapped up the Republican nomination.” In late February, Obama and Romney had been tied at 47 percent in PPP’s polling.

The TPM Poll Average shows Romney with a solid lead of 8.6 percent in the state thus far.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/arizona-poll-romney-up-7-points-obama-approval

Romney has Arizona locked up
 

ToxicAdam

Member
That Arizona poll is just more proof on how hard it's going to be for Obama to overcome the white vote as the general election approaches.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
That Arizona poll is just more proof on how hard it's going to be for Obama to overcome the white vote as the general election approaches.

unless minorities come out in droves. That absolutely has to be the focus for Obama. Keep blacks above 90% and Latinos above 50% and he wins. Either slips and things will get more interesting.
 

Clevinger

Member
@ppppolls
Gary Johnson polls at 9% in Arizona, mostly drawing from Romney and reducing his lead to 45-41


Hey, eznark, is Gary Johnson on every state ballot?
 

Averon

Member
AZ was always going be a long shot. Obama doesn't need to win the state. All he has to do is keep it close enough so that Romney is forced to spend time and money there.
 

You will keep hearing from Obama campaign that Arizona can be competitive just like the media will keep telling you Penn is a swing state.

That is not to say Obama campaign isn't doing anything in AZ, they are. I don't think it is going to swing this election cycle though. It will surely be the next state in that region to swing though I say, while Florida will become more Republican friendly as the future comes.

I actually don't think Obama can win Florida either in 2012.
 

Measley

Junior Member
You will keep hearing from Obama campaign that Arizona can be competitive just like the media will keep telling you Penn is a swing state.

That is not to say Obama campaign isn't doing anything in AZ, they are. I don't think it is going to swing this election cycle though. It will surely be the next state in that region to swing though I say, while Florida will become more Republican friendly as the future comes.

I actually don't think Obama can win Florida either in 2012.

I don't think Romney can win Ohio in 2012. Especially when our state's UE rate dips below 7% this fall. Good luck saying the economy sucks when the Republican Governor of Ohio is bragging about the hundreds of thousands of jobs available in the state.
 
AZ is a swing state in the sense that it has a shot of going for Obama (he probably would have won it in 2008 if McCain wasn't the nominee), but not in the sense that it would swing the election one way or the other. It's like Missouri in the sense that if Obama won it, he'd probably be winning Ohio, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina - states that would give him a decisive electoral college lead. He'll be competitive, but it won't matter.

Arizona's demographics are what will make it a viable prospect in future Democratic campaigns. Texas and Georgia are similar with large growths of black and Latinos, though Arizona is much closer to toss-up territory. Still, it'd be worthwhile for Obama to campaign there for the sake of laying the groundwork for future campaigns and picking off a few House seats. Georgia's delegation won't change much, but Texas and Arizona have a decent amount of pickup opportunities that could make the difference.

This is currently what I think Obama's winning map will look like:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=lCD

But if the economy gets better, I see this:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=lCE
 
AZ is a swing state in the sense that it has a shot of going for Obama (he probably would have won it in 2008 if McCain wasn't the nominee), but not in the sense that it would swing the election one way or the other. It's like Missouri in the sense that if Obama won it, he'd probably be winning Ohio, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina - states that would give him a decisive electoral college lead. He'll be competitive, but it won't matter.

Arizona's demographics are what will make it a viable prospect in future Democratic campaigns. Texas and Georgia are similar with large growths of black and Latinos, though Arizona is much closer to toss-up territory. Still, it'd be worthwhile for Obama to campaign there for the sake of laying the groundwork for future campaigns and picking off a few House seats. Georgia's delegation won't change much, but Texas and Arizona have a decent amount of pickup opportunities that could make the difference.

This is currently what I think Obama's winning map will look like:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=lCD

But if the economy gets better, I see this:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=lCE

Interestingly the first map you said is what Moody predicted for these Elections a few days back I believe.
 
Interestingly the first map you said is what Moody predicted for these Elections a few days back I believe.
It's a pretty fair prediction for the president, given how things are going. FL and NC will revert to their usual voting habits (although both will be very close, there might be some backlash against Obama's gay marriage endorsement), while OH and VA will stay in Obama's column thanks to their improving economies.

I know a lot of pundits and pollsters consider those four to be the "core" states, but really, Obama doesn't need any of them. Even just winning one would pretty much hand him the election.
 

Wray

Member
The demographic shift in CO, NV, and NM have made FL and OH meaningless to democrats as far as EV math goes. VA is also a bonus, but is demographically shifting to be a Democratic lock for the foreseeable future.

When AZ and TX inevitably shift blue due to continued demographics shifts, I really don't see how Republicans can win a General Election in the next generation or so. I can't see states like PA or Wisconsin shifting that much outside of population loss, which negates their electoral significance anyway.
 
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