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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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Diablos

Member
Wait wait -- the GOP outspent Dems by up to 8-1 in the recall race? What the fuck?

Obama is never going to compete with that. It's too late to shift from grassroots to really putting yourself out there for PAC money. This is madness. Totally unfair. It should worry each and every one of you that the GOP is on a level that Dems simply cannot touch financially.

The problem with SuperPACs is that they way they operate has GOP DNA all over it. It attracts people like them and either turns away Democrats, or makes them reluctantly go along with it in a way that doesn't come close to competing with pro-GOP donors. Its very nature all but assures that Republicans will have a much easier time getting, say, $1 billion dollars.

I still think the electoral math adds up for Obama, but, between PAC money, a sluggish economy and the Eurozone crashing in another 3 months, this election is going to be one hell of a ride.

Walker is a twit but they should have backed off from the recall election. I lost faith in it as soon as I learned Feingold didn't care. Thanks for nothing, WI. Local Dems no doubt put the state in jeopardy, and Obama NEEDS it. The electoral math might not be so sound after all. Exit polling is a bit encouraging, but no one really cared much for the Presidential election last night -- their mind is on this race. Their opinion of the President's leadership could very well change, especially if Romney and Walker get together in the state and really sell their message hard, capitalizing on what brought those swing voters back to Walker last night. We know they will certainly have the money to do that. Dems will be spreading themselves thin as is, now with this in the way they're going to have an even harder time. Defending WI in a year like this is the last thing anyone should want to fucking hear. It would've been a lock if the Unions would have backed off once they realized victory really wasn't a possibility.

This is like the Scott Brown election of 2012 or something (what's with all these Scotts cockblocking Dems, geez). Unintended consequence. Dems think they can just do whatever they want in a state that typically favors them and it ends up biting them in the ass.

I'm starting to feel the same way I did in 2010. All of these little signs are alarming, you remain hopeful but your gut tells you something really bad is going to happen. And of course the House got taken over by a bunch of Republicans even crazier than the ones that controlled it from 1994-2006. The same thing could very well happen in November. At best we're looking at Obama winning by 2-4 points, 5 if he's lucky. There's no margin for error here. None. It seems to be getting tougher for him by the week.

The ruling against the mandate will be another blow.
 

Diablos

Member
Do you have a source for the 8-1 spending? People are claiming 4-1, 6-1, 7-1, now 8-1. I'm sure Walker had more support but I would love to know the actual numbers.

For once I agree with Kevitivity. Source please.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/05/politics/wisconsin-recall-money/index.html

CNN said:
What's also out of proportion: Walker has raised 7½ times that of his Democratic challenger, Tom Barrett.

To date, Barrett has raised just under $4 million. Walker has pulled in $30.5 million.
Doom.

No, really.

If the GOP can do this in Wisconsin just imagine what Romney's going to dump into the states for the GE. This is absolutely terrifying, folks.
 

Diablos

Member
Do you think that Walker would have lost if it wasn't for Citizens United?
It's certainly possible. Who knows. If nothing else it would have been a lot tighter, that's for sure -- which can make all the difference when we're talking about something like a US Presidential Election that can come down to only a couple points. This one is no doubt going to be just that way. Kiss the 2008 Democratic voter advantage goodbye, the GOP has money and enthusiasm on their side in a way that hasn't really been seen before.
 

eznark

Banned
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/06/supporter_slaps_barrett_after_loss.php?ref=fpblg

Holy Crap: Supporter Slaps Barrett After Loss


Damn. I sort of feel sorry for the guy.


I feel sorry for him. He had no desire to run for Governor but was essentially forced to because no other credible candidate would do it.

He will remain Milwaukee mayor for as long as he desires though, so it's not too terrible for him. His political ambitions (I don't think he had any) are DOA though.
 

Kosmo

Banned
Had to tune in to the Sirius Left this morning on the way to work to see what Bill Press had to say. This is what I gathered:

1) Republicans bought the election
2) Wisconsin doesn't know how to run a recall and should do it like California (first a yes/no on recalling the governor, then a second election to pick who gets in)

Nevermind, of course, that we just had a second election with pretty much the same results as the first, meaning that a politician is actually doing the things that the people who voted him in wanted him to do.
 

Kosmo

Banned
Speaking of California...man, rough day for public unions there as well yesterday.

I think the public is finally realizing how the public sector unions have been fucking them all these years now that the baby boomers are retiring and eating up huge chunks of State budgets. We have been down this road many times, but the public should never be forced to support defined benefit pensions (defined 'pay as you go' contributions are fine). I assume my State is typical, but of the benefits paid (salaries/pensions and health benefits) to retirees and active employees, over 75% of that money goes to retirees.
 

eznark

Banned
I'm just glad Wisconsin can finally go back to being ignored. What a waste of everyone's time.

If you believe that you're delusional. From now to November Wisconsin will be a focus. Probably beyond as other states (23 GOP governors, right?) enact Act 10 style bills.

There is already plans under way for 6-10 of those states to restrict collective bargaining at the same time so as to thin out the union opposition.

Also, Walker is now going to be thrown around as a real VP candidate. Wisconsin ain't going anywhere.
 

Cloudy

Banned
I still cannot believe Bill Clinton went on tv and said we're in a recession (not true) while under-cutting Obama's policy preferences. All this a few days after praising Romney and blunting the Dems campaign attack? What the hell is wrong with him?
 

ToxicAdam

Member
When Bill says 'we're in a recession' he's talking about the people he cares about. Which is the same thing he did in '92 and helped him win an election.
 

Kosmo

Banned
I still cannot believe Bill Clinton went on tv and said we're in a recession (not true) while under-cutting Obama's policy preferences. All this a few days after praising Romney and blunting the Dems campaign attack? What the hell is wrong with him?

1) The Clintons, Bill in particular, do not like Obama and do not want him re-elected
2) Bill praises Romney because people like Romney have been very good to Bill (aka Wall Street)
 
I think the public is finally realizing how the public sector unions have been fucking them all these years now that the baby boomers are retiring and eating up huge chunks of State budgets. We have been down this road many times, but the public should never be forced to support defined benefit pensions (defined 'pay as you go' contributions are fine).

That's nonsensical. When an employee accepts a defined benefit pension plan, those benefits are merely delayed compensation. Which means the person accepts less payment in the present in exchange for the benefit. In an unfunded pension plan, the person is paid more up front. From the perspective of the employer, the costs are the same.

I assume my State is typical, but of the benefits paid (salaries/pensions and health benefits) to retirees and active employees, over 75% of that money goes to retirees.

Assuming this is true, you state it as though it were a problem. My response to this is, so?

By the way, why do you always advocate for making Americans poorer?
 

Kosmo

Banned
That's nonsensical. When an employee accepts a defined benefit pension plan, those benefits are merely delayed compensation. Which means the person accepts less payment in the present in exchange for the benefit. In an unfunded pension plan, the person is paid more up front. From the perspective of the employer, the costs are the same.

Assuming this is true, you state it as though it were a problem. My response to this is, so?

By the way, why do you always advocate for making Americans poorer?

You live a fiscal fantasy land, so there is no point discussing this with you.
 

eznark

Banned
That's nonsensical. When an employee accepts a defined benefit pension plan, those benefits are merely delayed compensation. Which means the person accepts less payment in the present in exchange for the benefit. In an unfunded pension plan, the person is paid more up front. From the perspective of the employer, the costs are the same.

And the employer has decided those costs are too high and have decided to reduce them. Is anyone arguing this?
 

ToxicAdam

Member
Assuming this is true, you state it as though it were a problem. My response to this is, so?

By the way, why do you always advocate for making Americans poorer?

Protecting a segment of middle class population and their inflated benefits is actually robbing from the poor. Especially as demographics and economic conditions dramatically change over the decades.
 

Kosmo

Banned
And the employer has decided those costs are too high and have decided to reduce them. Is anyone arguing this?

EV is arguing that the projected value of the benefit should hold, even if the fiscal realities are impossible - in reality "defined benefit" pensions should be defined not as an absolute dollar value, but as a % of the value of the pension fund.
 

ToxicAdam

Member
EV is arguing that the projected value of the benefit should hold, even if the fiscal realities are impossible - in reality "defined benefit" pensions should be defined not as an absolute dollar value, but as a % of the value of the pension fund.


But there is no 'fiscal reality' in his world. The federal government can just fund all state budgets with their magic paper and make all these 'contrived problems' go away.

Same circular argument .. over and over ... wash, rinse, repeat. It's like trying to argue with Jaydubya.
 
Protecting a segment of middle class population and their inflated benefits is actually robbing from the poor. Especially as demographics and economic conditions dramatically change over the decades.

The use of an adjective is not an argument. Nor is it evidence.

I think what you mean to say is that deflated state budgets resulting from a financial crisis caused by Wall Street and deluded right-wingers was used as a pretext by those same forces to attack working Americans. Even though doing so was not remotely necessary, because such shortfalls could have easily been made up by additional federal spending. But that spending was opposed by the same forces that caused the crash in the first place.

Kosmo said:
EV is arguing that the projected value of the benefit should hold, even if the fiscal realities are impossible - in reality "defined benefit" pensions should be defined not as an absolute dollar value, but as a % of the value of the pension fund.

I am saying it does not matter from the employer's perspective how benefits are awarded. When a bargain is struck, the total amount of compensation is determined based on the relative bargaining power of the parties. Pensions are about how and when that compensation is distributed, not about how much it is.

But it sounds like you are arguing something entirely different: that contracts should be broken because Wall Street and deluded right-wingers caused a financial crisis, which is an entirely different argument, and also not very free-marketist of you.

But there is no 'fiscal reality' in his world. The federal government can just fund all state budgets with their magic paper and make all these 'contrived problems' go away.

Same circular argument .. over and over ... wash, rinse, repeat. It's like trying to argue with Jaydubya.

Also not an argument.
 
But there is no 'fiscal reality' in his world. The federal government can just fund all state budgets with their magic paper and make all these 'contrived problems' go away.

Same circular argument .. over and over ... wash, rinse, repeat. It's like trying to argue with Jaydubya.

Haha I get where you are coming from but don't get MMT straight up confused with the far Lefts prescritptions on what to do. MMT only states that inflation, not tax revenue, that are the constraints on Government spending. EVs policy prescription is that the Fed should poor money into underfunded states up to the point that inflation becomes a bigger problem than underfunded state budgets.
 

jehuty

Member
The recall in Wisconsin was stupid. Here around Milwaukee, most people didn't even know why they wanted to recall Walker. Don't get me wrong, I have no love for Walker, but the unions should have waited to attack GOP policies. Its also crazy how super PAC cant spend unlimited amount of money for candidates. The supreme court really made politics even worse. Oh well, Wisconsin will remain divided especially since republicans are already mocking democrats. It will be interesting to see if job numbers improve now that the recall is over. If they don't in Wisconsin and they do everywhere else then the GOP is screwed come November. Actually, scratch that, Romney doesn't have a chance in November. Most of Milwaukee didn't even go out and vote. It will be close, but Obama will carry Wisconsin (he was very smart not to get entangled in this whole affair, Romney would have jumped on him for this loss).

One thing is for sure out of all this, there is no way now that the city of Waukesha or any other Waukesha county towns or cities (republican land) will ever get Lake Michigan water now. Milwaukee is gonna start screwing its suburbs hard (about time I say).

Prediction; democrats will have a bunch of other loses all the way up to late august. Then Obama campaign machine will kick into high gear and crush Romney. Hell, even with low job numbers Obama will win. I know Dems want Obama to show more teeth and attack, but I liken to what he is doing to the Foreman v Ali fight. Let your opponent attack you all they want and tire them out. Then when they have nothing left to give, beat them senseless.
 

eznark

Banned
The recall in Wisconsin was stupid. Here around Milwaukee, most people didn't even know why they wanted to recall Walker. Don't get me wrong, I have no love for Walker, but the unions should have waited to attack GOP policies. Its also crazy how super PAC cant spend unlimited amount of money for candidates. The supreme court really made politics even worse. Oh well, Wisconsin will remain divided especially since republicans are already mocking democrats. It will be interesting to see if job numbers improve now that the recall is over. If they don't in Wisconsin and they do everywhere else then the GOP is screwed come November. Actually, scratch that, Romney doesn't have a chance in November. Most of Milwaukee didn't even go out and vote. It will be close, but Obama will carry Wisconsin (he was very smart not to get entangled in this whole affair, Romney would have jumped on him for this loss).

One thing is for sure out of all this, there is no way now that the city of Waukesha or any other Waukesha county towns or cities (republican land) will ever get Lake Michigan water now. Milwaukee is gonna start screwing its suburbs hard (about time I say).

Prediction; democrats will have a bunch of other loses all the way up to late august. Then Obama campaign machine will kick into high gear and crush Romney. Hell, even with low job numbers Obama will win. I know Dems want Obama to show more teeth and attack, but I liken to what he is doing to the Foreman v Ali fight. Let your opponent attack you all they want and tire them out. Then when they have nothing left to give, beat them senseless.

Gerrymandering makes the November statewide elections mostly a foregone conclusion. The GOP will pick up 3-5 seats minimum. It's pretty gross, actually. The Democratic controlled senate will never even get a chance to vote on anything. November (for the state seats anyway) is not in play.

As far as "most of Milwaukee not voting" that's insane. This was the highest turnout for a gubernatorial election in 60+ years...and it's in June! Turnout was absurdly high. People were reporting lines all day long in Milwaukee and polls stayed open late to allow folks in line to vote. There were about 400,000 votes in Milwaukee County. Turnout was higher there than in 2010, but shy of the 450,000 in 2008. So Barrett lost only about 30,000 Obama votes in Milwaukee County (60% of the difference).
 

ToxicAdam

Member
The use of an adjective is not an argument. Nor is it evidence.


Most states have balanced budget requirments in their constitution. So, when recessions happen, cuts have to happen to pass a budget. When services are cut, they are most likely to disproportionately effect the poor (when they need them the most).

That's just how it is and how it has always been during every recession I have been alive for.
 
Most states have balanced budget requirments in their constitution. So, when recessions happen, cuts have to happen to pass a budget. When services are cut, they are most likely to disproportionately effect the poor (when they need them the most).

That's just how it is and how it has always been during every recession I have been alive for.

Or they can raise taxes on the "job creators."
 

jehuty

Member
Gerrymandering makes the November statewide elections mostly a foregone conclusion. The GOP will pick up 3-5 seats minimum. It's pretty gross, actually. The Democratic controlled senate will never even get a chance to vote on anything. November (for the state seats anyway) is not in play.

As far as "most of Milwaukee not voting" that's insane. This was the highest turnout for a gubernatorial election in 60+ years...and it's in June! Turnout was absurdly high. People were reporting lines all day long in Milwaukee and polls stayed open late to allow folks in line to vote. There were about 400,000 votes in Milwaukee County. Turnout was higher there than in 2010, but shy of the 450,000 in 2008. So Barrett lost only about 30,000 Obama votes in Milwaukee County (60% of the difference).

When I say "Milwaukee" I mean the north and Latin South Side. Sure Bay view, the east side, and all other parts of the city that are mainly white went out and voted. But in the north side (Blacks) and near south side (latinos), the people there really didn't care about this recall. Its the funniest thing though, just mentioning Obama to the blacks and Latinos in Milwaukee has them come out with nothing but heeps of praise. I like to tell people this because I really do believe it "if a black person finds out another black person didn't vote for Obama they will probably have to fear for their lives" and in the Hispanic sense of things "No way will Mexicans vote for the guy who is a Mormon and is anti immigration himself". Its weird really how most pundits think that Rubio will do anything for the GOP Hispanic vote. Cubans are generally not liked by the other Caribbean Hispanics and especially not by Mexicans (its all because Cubans basically get to stay here with no problems).

So to emphasize, sure Milwaukee county voted in record numbers, but the city itself really didn't (from what I saw). This will be different in November. And Milwaukee's suburbs voting heavily republican will not be lost on Barrett himself. He will punish them and Waukesha for this. There is growing resentment in the city towards all its suburbs because they keep trying to dictate what Milwaukee can do (see Milwaukee street car project).

All in all, nothing much will change. Wisconsin will become a right to work state soon and it keep building wasteful roads while making seem like public transportation is somehow evil. Oh well, I'll probably be bailing out to New York City or Chicago within a year or two anyways.
 
New Pennsylvania poll: Obama 48% Romney 36%
Among independent voters, the survey indicates Obama with a 49%-27% lead over Romney.

"The president enjoys significant advantages over Romney in his personal popularity and most voters believe he is better prepared to handle the presidency even though they are ambivalent about some of his major policy initiatives," says the poll's release.

A Quinnipiac University survey conducted April 25-May 1 indicated Obama with a 47%-39% advantage over Romney in the Keystone State.

Sen. John Kerry, the Democrat's 2004 presidential nominee, narrowly captured Pennsylvania in his election loss that year to President George W. Bush. Obama carried the state by ten points in his 2008 presidential election victory. But Republicans stormed back in the 2010 midterm elections, capturing the governor's office, a Senate seat and five House seats from the Democrats.
Whoever says PA is battleground should be locked up in rural PA for the rest of their lives
 

eznark

Banned
When I say "Milwaukee" I mean the north and Latin South Side. Sure Bay view, the east side, and all other parts of the city that are mainly white went out and voted. But in the north side (Blacks) and near south side (latinos), the people there really didn't care about this recall. Its the funniest thing though, just mentioning Obama to the blacks and Latinos in Milwaukee has them come out with nothing but heeps of praise. I like to tell people this because I really do believe it "if a black person finds out another black person didn't vote for Obama they will probably have to fear for their lives" and in the Hispanic sense of things "No way will Mexicans vote for the guy who is a Mormon and is anti immigration himself". Its weird really how most pundits think that Rubio will do anything for the GOP Hispanic vote. Cubans are generally not liked by the other Caribbean Hispanics and especially not by Mexicans (its all because Cubans basically get to stay here with no problems).

So to emphasize, sure Milwaukee county voted in record numbers, but the city itself really didn't (from what I saw). This will be different in November. And Milwaukee's suburbs voting heavily republican will not be lost on Barrett himself. He will punish them and Waukesha for this. There is growing resentment in the city towards all its suburbs because they keep trying to dictate what Milwaukee can do (see Milwaukee street car project).

All in all, nothing much will change. Wisconsin will become a right to work state soon and it keep building wasteful roads while making seem like public transportation is somehow evil. Oh well, I'll probably be bailing out to New York City or Chicago within a year or two anyways.

I doubt this will be borne out by the numbers. The inner city municipalities, those on the North Side, were the ones claiming they were running out of ballots. Considering they were projects 65% turnout (based on 2010) it's difficult for me to believe that there was low turnout there. We should have actual numbers later.

I get your anecdotal evidence and as always, there is no information on the South Side (JS doesn't care about Latino people) yet whatsoever.

I agree with you on November in terms of outcome. I don't think it will be because of turnout though. Not a chance the numbers get close to 2008 this time around. However the MU Law poll, which nailed the Gubernatorial race, has Obama up big:

In the presidential race President Barack Obama received 51 percent to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s 43 percent among likely voters.
 
As far as Wisconsin is concerned, I've been pouring over comments in reddit and the internets. Seems like Wisconsinites really didn't like the hold unions had over government for a long time. It's the birthplace of unions, and that allowed them to gain tremendous political muscle at the expense of state budgets in the local government. This is coming from people who will vote for Obama over Romney in a second, but were concerned over unions.
 

jehuty

Member
Pew had a poll yesterday that had Obama with a 7 point lead nationally. Also, people are starting to have less confidence in the economy.

Bah Humbug!!!

I think my prediction will hold true. Obama and the Dems will suffer defeats up until around august. Then as it gets closer to the election date Obama campaign machine will go on steam roller mode and he will win his re-election. I mean, there are some battleground states that aren't really battle ground states at all (Michigan, WI, PA). Then you have Ohio which will swing in Obama's favor and that pretty much wraps it up.

What really has me interested is how many seats will be picked up in the senate and house by either party. For whatever reason Eznark seems to be mostly right with his predictions so i'd like to hear what he has to say about this. Eznark in fact has sound judgement save for the fact that he roots for the Brewers lol and the Packers lol.

And about that supreme court and health care mandate, although things don't seem to good on that front, I just don't think they will strike it down. No way Roberts want it to come down to a 5-4 decision.
 
eznark is just making safe bets.

I'm not expecting good jobs numbers throughout the summer & September.

I suspect it will have a huge impact on Obama's re-election chances, especially with the amount of money being poured in right now.
 
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