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[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

Let's see what gets more coverage. Obama's comments or Romney's comment.

Obama has already flip-flopped and now says economy is "not doing fine". So all is well.

 

[Kevitivity]

He's not up for re-election, and even if he was, his base is not one particularly interested in moderation. Try again.

Rand is more moderate than his crazy old man in my opinion.

But tell me, why do you think he endorsed Romney?

 

[RustyNails]

Certainly worked well for Kerry

Certainly worked for Walker!

 

[Invisible_Insane]

Rand is more moderate than his crazy old man in my opinion.

But tell me, why do you think he endorsed Romney?

I don't know why. I agree with Tamanon. It doesn't make any sense.

 

[RustyNails]

But private sector IS doing fine

4.3 million jerbs added since 2009

 

[Diablos]

lol we're all kind of semi-melting down in here

Conservatives must love lurking in this thread.

 

[Snake]

What reason does someone with the tea party/libertarian brand have for endorsing Romney?

Rand Paul is in the mainstream of the Republican Party and no one really thinks otherwise. The tea party libertarian brand is a self-aware delusion rather than an ideological movement, therefore it can only be damaged by electoral defeat.

 

[Invisible_Insane]

But private sector IS doing fine

4.3 million jerbs added since 2009

I don't see why he would walk that statement back. The private sector added 80K+ jobs last Month, but we're allowing the public sector to be a massive drag on the recovery. The impulse to backpedal is grossly pusillanimous.

lol we're all kind of semi-melting down in here

Conservatives must love lurking in this thread.

Speak for yourself.

 

[The Technomancer]

Romney just slam dunked himself.



What a fucking idiot. Did he not notice that Walker specifically exempted firemen and policemen? Jesus he is an idiot.

It is scary that someone who says implicitly and almost explicitly that having public servents is a bad thing is a serious candidate for the highest office in the nation.

 

[Invisible_Insane]

Rand Paul is in the mainstream of the Republican Party and no one really thinks otherwise. The tea party libertarian brand is a self-aware delusion rather than an ideological movement, therefore it can only be damaged by electoral defeat.

Oh, look, an empirically testable assertion:

http://voteview.org/SENATE_SORT112.HTM

CTRL + F "Paul"

 

[Jackson50]

BOs a great "speaker" (when he's reciting a written speech). Debater, no so much.

The economy is going to be a big topic in the upcoming debates, which is going to put BO on the defensive big time.

Romney is a great debater, however he can come across of robotic and cold.

Obviously, my mind is made up, but I'm still looking forward to this election season and the debates!

Off a teleprompter, right?

India has created thousands of jobs in US

I had hoped additional economic cooperation would have heretofore manifested, but I don't blame the Administration for the languid progress. India is understandably reticent about hastily forging an alliance with the U.S. But aside from economic issues, bilateral relations are progressing sufficiently. And the Administration has judiciously made India an axis of our strategic posture. Honestly, I was slightly surprised at how heavily they emphasized India in the DoD's Strategic Guidance released earlier this year.

So does anyone understand why Rand Paul endorsed Romney? It makes no sense, especially for future campaigns.

Yes. He's a Republican.

 

[Byakuya769]

Rand is more moderate than his crazy old man in my opinion.

But tell me, why do you think he endorsed Romney?

Because he's a snake oil salesman.

Oh, look, an empirically testable assertion:

http://voteview.org/SENATE_SORT112.HTM

CTRL + F "Paul"

Coburn was pretty far down that list too. He's not in the mainstream of the present day GOP? Just because you're the most conservative, doesn't mean you're not mainstream. A mainstream party can be extreme itself.

Though on a second pass I guess column 8 would suggest that he is far more conservative than his colleagues.

 

[Snake]

Oh, look, an empirically testable assertion:

http://voteview.org/SENATE_SORT112.HTM

CTRL + F "Paul"

Either I'm missing the point or I'm not seeing how that ranking contradicts what I said. For instance, Bernie Sanders fits easily within mainstream Democratic politics despite carrying a pointless "socialist" label and being the furthest to the left within the Democratic caucus of the Senate.

"Mainstream of the Republican Party" doesn't mean "moderate senate voting record."

 

[Byakuya769]

Romney just slam dunked himself.

What a fucking idiot. Did he not notice that Walker specifically exempted firemen and policemen? Jesus he is an idiot.

I shared this on facebook, and it's already going viral on my friend-list.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Trying to find that Romney gaffe stuff huh. Meh. Obama stepped in a pile of crap today, and we'll be hearing about it for months. It's the next "fundamentals of the economy are strong"

Romney is running a better campaign than Obama right now

 

[Byakuya769]

Is it a gaffe if he believes it?

 

[Oblivion]

That Romney comment on firemen, and policemen was REALLY fucking stupid. I mean, aside from the general idiocy of suggesting less people working is a good thing and will somehow lead to MORE jobs (wtf?), firemen and policemen generally tend to lean conservative. It's not a good idea to insult such people.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

So do we have at least a time frame when the health care vote will be revealed? Like mid Junish or late Junish?

 

[RustyNails]

PPP: Support for gay marriage swings 8 points in Florida.

-Like voters in most of the country Floridians are moving on gay marriage. They're still narrowly against it with 45% opposed and 42% supportive. But that three point margin represents an 8 point shift from last September when 48% were opposed and just 37% in support. This very much looks to be an Obama effect.

 

[Oblivion]

Sound logic, Mitch:

"The Obama Economy is even slower now than when we extended the rates in 2010—raising taxes on job creators in this slow economy is simply not the elixir for his failed policies."

Did you catch that?

1) The economy is "even slower now" than it was when the Bush tax rates were extended -- and, McConnell could have said, when additional demand-side tax cuts were added.

2) The economy will "respond favorably" if we extend those tax rates again.

What's going on here? McConnell's invoked of the Uncertainty Fairy -- the theory that worry about new tax rates or regulation stops the Job Creators from making new hiring decisions. In December 2010, the Job Creators learned that they would not have to worry about higher taxes until January 2013. That's quite a lot of time -- a few more months than I've been at Slate, actually, during which time I've purchased a new car and an incalcuable number of paper and Kindle books. All the economic data suggests that the lower taxes saved people from cut-backs that would have hurt the economy. But the growth rate, as McConnell admits, hasn't been so great. So! We extend the tax rates in perpetuity, and at some point in the future, maybe they'll work.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2...t_work_so_let_s_extend_the_bush_tax_cuts.html

 

[Averon]

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog...s-favor-obama-over-romney-oppose-rubio-dream/

New LD Poll Finds Latinos Favor Obama over Romney, Oppose Rubio DREAM.

A new Latino Decisions national poll released June 8, 2012 finds Democrat President Barack Obama with a 43-point margin over Republican Mitt Romney among Latino voters heading in the 2012 Presidential election. Overall, 66% of Latino registered voters were certain or leaning towards Obama, while 23% were certain or leaning towards Romney.

Overall, our survey found 87% of Latinos strongly or somewhat supported the Durbin version of the DREAM Act, compared to just 10% who were strongly or somewhat opposed. In contrast, we find a split on the Rubio version of DREAM with 49% of Latinos in support and 46% opposed. Among non-Latinos, a similar pattern emerges, though support for the DREAM Act is lower than among Latinos. When faced with the Durbin version of the DREAM Act 62% of non-Latinos were in support and 33% were opposed. On the Rubio version non-Latinos were split with 47% in favor and 44% against.

The GOP dropping the ball on Latinos is baffling, quite frankly. All the inroads George W Bush made for the GOP is virtually gone.

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

Gaffes happen. To me Obama made a pretty innocuous statement today in a whole paragraph of words. You can take anything out of context. As Ezra said today, gaffes exist only to confirm biases and drive traffic to news sites to make money. They don't effect opinion one way or another. Does this news cycle make Obama appear weaker? Sure. But does it mean anything? No. To us that get involved in the minutia of a campaign, it might seem big. But we tend to see the trees instead of the forest. This one statement is not really going to change the opinion of an independent voter one way or another. It comes to how the economy is doing in October/November as we all know. Someone that is going to vote against Obama because of this was already leaning that way.

And something that really matters:

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/article/obama-will-bang-bain-capital-fight-heats/586976

Purple Strategies is a political consulting firm that includes Republican strategist Alex Castellanos and Democratic strategist Steve McMahon. In its new Purple Poll, released Thursday, the company's pollsters read two statements to voters in several swing states, each statement appropriating the language of one side in the Bain debate.

The first was: "Private investment and equity firms help the American economy grow. They launch new companies and rebuild existing ones, including some of the biggest employers in America. Their work has created millions of jobs and will help drive America's recovery."

The second was: "Private investment and equity firms care only about profits and short-term gains for investors. When they come in, workers get laid off, benefits disappear, and pensions are cut. Investors walk off with big returns, and working folks get stuck holding the bag."

The overall result in these swing states: Forty-seven percent agreed with the "care only about profits" description, while 38 percent picked the "help America grow" statement. That's a significant amount of anti-Bain sentiment.

The results are particularly striking in Ohio, perhaps the most important state in November's election. Forty-nine percent of Ohioans agreed with the "care only about profits" description of private equity, while 33 percent agreed with the "help America grow" description.

If Romney can't win Ohio, then he won't win at all. Show me a map where he wins without Ohio.

 

[RustyNails]

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog...s-favor-obama-over-romney-oppose-rubio-dream/

New LD Poll Finds Latinos Favor Obama over Romney, Oppose Rubio DREAM.





The GOP dropping the ball on Latinos is baffling, quite frankly. All the inroads George W Bush made for the GOP is virtually gone.

Obama should be humbled by this number. Despite not bringing up immi reform in his first term, hispanics and latinos still overwhelmingly support him.

 

[XMonkey]

The GOP dropping the ball on Latinos is baffling, quite frankly. All the inroads George W Bush made for the GOP is virtually gone.

Not totally. They're politically incapable of looking at the bigger future picture. Really, they love to look in their rear-view mirror waxing nostalgic.

 

[Technosteve]

so who's going to be VP did you guys take money bets yet?

 

[Tamanon]

Not totally. They're politically incapable of looking at the bigger future picture. Really, they love to look in their rear-view mirror waxing nostalgic.

Really, the GOP has operated the past 20 years or so as a Private Equity firm. Only looking for the short term profits instead of looking to grow the base.

Immigration should be an easy sell, especially considering how socially conservative a lot of Latinos are.

 

[eznark]

Check my map from earlier today, I gave Obama Ohio purely because of this poll.

For the record, I agree with both and have no problem with the second statement.

Gaffes happen. To me Obama made a pretty innocuous statement today in a whole paragraph of words. You can take anything out of context. As Ezra said today, gaffes exist only to confirm biases and drive traffic to news sites to make money. They don't effect opinion one way or another. Does this news cycle make Obama appear weaker? Sure. But does it mean anything? No. To us that get involved in the minutia of a campaign, it might seem big. But we tend to see the trees instead of the forest. This one statement is not really going to change the opinion of an independent voter one way or another. It comes to how the economy is doing in October/November as we all know. Someone that is going to vote against Obama because of this was already leaning that way.

And something that really matters:



If Romney can't win Ohio, then he won't win at all. Show me a map where he wins without Ohio.

 

[Averon]

Really, the GOP has operated the past 20 years or so as a Private Equity firm. Only looking for the short term profits instead of looking to grow the base.

Immigration should be an easy sell, especially considering how socially conservative a lot of Latinos are.

Yup. This is the most baffling part for me. Latinos and African Americans largely trend conservative on social issues. Technically, it shouldn't be that hard for the GOP to peel away their support from Dems. But that isn't the case. Do you know how fucked the Dems would be if the GOP can consistently peel away merely 15%-20% of AA and Latino voters?

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

Check my map from earlier today, I gave Obama Ohio purely because of this poll.

For the record, I agree with both and have no problem with the second statement.

Your map is interesting, but you do not go into specifics why one state swings one way or the other. I think we all agree the election comes down to these handful of states that Nate Silver has listed in importance:

1 Va. 31.9%
2 Ohio 20.3%
3 Colo. 10.5%
4 Nev. 7.9%
5 Pa. 7.9%
6 Iowa 6.9%
7 N.H. 4.2%
8 Fla. 2.7%
9 Ore. 2.7%
10 Wis. 1.5%

You have these going for Obama: Ohio, PA, NH, OR, WI. I agree with you on all of these.

And then you have these going for Romney: VA, CO, NV, IA, FL. This is where you need to justify your picks. I'll give you FL. It's deep south and it's electorate is older than the mean. I can see IA and CO being a true toss up. It will be close there.

But NV and VA? Both of these states are depended on federal employment, especially NV. The two biggest employers there are the Dept. of Energy and the service union for the casinos. Plus Reid won there in 2010, a wave election against Democrats. VA is also depended on federal jobs. Why would they elect someone promising to cut them?

Also you have to realize that demographics have shifted in the last 4 years. And Republicans have again refused to make any inroads with minority communities. Sure you can depend on an older, whiter voter base in midterms but this is a general election. You have to expand your base in them, and they have failed to do it in the last four years. This means that Latinos and other minorities making up more of the voter percentage, as well as breaking steadily for Obama, make it harder for Romney to win states like CO, NV, FL, VA, and PA.

Plus your map shows how incredibly hard it is for Romney to win after losing Ohio. After winning VA, CO, NV, IA, and FL, he has to depend on flipping WI or any other state? If he is going to flip WI, then he will flip a lot more than that. Hell I give him PA too if he took WI. If I was Romney I would focus more on NH before WI.

 

[RustyNails]

Dr.Pangloss, you forgot the Latino mormons that eznark has in his secret equation!

 

[kehs]

Just Sayin'

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

Dr.Pangloss, you forgot the Latino mormons that eznark has in his secret equation!

Sorry. I don't believe people like voting for a party that treats them like criminals.

 

[eznark]

I think you're focusing too much of "flipping" 2008. Obama is no longer a Jesus figure. He's a mediocre president presiding over a stagnant-ish economy. As the economy dwindles, I think states will break to the challenger. On phone so I'm not going to go in depth but like I said, I think states where Romney is within 5 by the end of June he will win. I give him WI if voter if makes it through the court and I give Obama OH based on Kasich.

Also, this is all dependent on a very significant slow down over the summer.

I personally think the map will look a lot more like 04 than 08.

However I really am biased towards that awesome tie happening! The map wasn't totally serious, but I think it's a plausible path without OH.

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

I think you're focusing too much of "flipping" 2008. Obama is no longer a Jesus figure. He's a mediocre president presiding over a stagnant-ish economy. As the economy dwindles, I think states will break to the challenger. On phone so I'm not going to go in depth but like I said, I think states where Romney is within 5 by the end of June he will win. I give him WI if voter if makes it through the court and I give Obama OH based on Kasich.

Also, this is all dependent on a very significant slow down over the summer.

I personally think the map will look a lot more like 04 than 08.

However I really am biased towards that awesome tie happening! The map wasn't totally serious, but I think it's a plausible path without OH.

The only ones that considered Obama a Jesus figure were the extremists on both sides of the aisle. Also you don't take into account Obama is a phenomenal campaigner. He beat the Clintons. He beat the guy that beat Romney. You also think the voter ID law in WI will have a large impact on the results. It would need to disenfranchise over 50,000 people to do that. That is 3% of the vote in WI.

Also your map leaves out the option of Obama taking Omaha, Nebraska and its two electoral votes for the win. Think what that would mean: 271 to 267.

 

[eznark]

The savior factor doesn't matter so much for dirext votes, it matters for media coverage.

 

[PhoenixDark]

The point of the savior comments is that Obama has proven to be a rather average to bad leader. People are no longer swayed by empty rhetoric. They have 4 years of bad results to go on instead of 4 months of impressive speeches

NM and NV will likely make the map look more 08-ish than 04-ish. I'm down on Obama's chances but there's no question he has advantages in Ohio and Virginia right now. The problem is that they aren't solid wins for Obama right now, and if things continue to get bad they will likely move to Romney.

I think Obama will lose a close election, EC wise. I think his paths to victory are beginning to shrink as the economy goes over the cliff. We're in for a very bad summer, and I don't see Obama recovering in the fall. He just looks weak and defeated already, and republicans smell blood whereas just a month ago he seemed poised for victory

 

[RustyNails]

However I really am biased towards that awesome tie happening!

Why do you want this dysfunction to happen so badly? Do you want the fate of the leader of free world decided by the likes of Allen West? Tie is bad for everyone. It's a national embarrassment. Also, Florida will go to Obama. People in Florida loathe Rick Scott. His approval hasn't budged from 30% and his attempt at voter caging in November backfired badly. Only thing changing there is demographics and unemployment rate going down.

 

[Tamanon]

The point of the savior comments is that Obama has proven to be a rather average to bad leader. People are no longer swayed by empty rhetoric. They have 4 years of bad results to go on instead of 4 months of impressive speeches

NM and NV will likely make the map look more 08-ish than 04-ish. I'm down on Obama's chances but there's no question he has advantages in Ohio and Virginia right now. The problem is that they aren't solid wins for Obama right now, and if things continue to get bad they will likely move to Romney.

I think Obama will lose a close election, EC wise. I think his paths to victory are beginning to shrink as the economy goes over the cliff. We're in for a very bad summer, and I don't see Obama recovering in the fall. He just looks weak and defeated already, and republicans smell blood whereas just a month ago he seemed poised for victory

If people are no longer swayed by empty rhetoric, then Romney doesn't stand a chance at all.

 

[Measley]

That Latino number doesn't surprise me one bit. The GOP has made it their business to make Hispanics out to be criminals and parasites. Not to mention what conservatives said about Judge Sotomayor during her confirmation to the Supreme Court.

If any Republicans think that Hispanics are going to forget the last four years of GOP bigotry towards the Hispanic population, they're fooling themselves.

Oh, and Hispanics view Marco Rubio the same way blacks view Michael Steele.

The point of the savior comments is that Obama has proven to be a rather average to bad leader. People are no longer swayed by empty rhetoric. They have 4 years of bad results to go on instead of 4 months of impressive speeches

What bad results? The country is way better off than it was when Obama took office.

 

[RustyNails]

and I don't see Obama recovering in the fall. He just looks weak and defeated already, and republicans smell blood whereas just a month ago he seemed poised for victory

Going by your post history, this is an outright lie

 

[The Librarian]

Going by your post history, this is an outright lie

PD's getting better. LOL

 

[eznark]

Why do you want this dysfunction to happen so badly? Do you want the fate of the leader of free world decided by the likes of Allen West? Tie is bad for everyone. It's a national embarrassment. Also, Florida will go to Obama. People in Florida loathe Rick Scott. His approval hasn't budged from 30% and his attempt at voter caging in November backfired badly. Only thing changing there is demographics and unemployment rate going down.

To me both Romney and Obama are national embarrassments. I'd like them to win in a fashion fitting the man. Also, it'd be hilarious.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Going by your post history, this is an outright lie

Last month I clearly argued Obama was the favorite. I still think the EC map favors him actually - my argument has always been that his lead will complete evaporate over the summer.

 

[RustyNails]

To me both Romney and Obama are national embarrassments. I'd like them to win in a fashion fitting the man. Also, it'd be hilarious.

Obama is hardly a national embarrassment. Gotta disagree there chief. For national embarrassments, look no further than George W Bush.

Besides, 'for teh lulz' isn't a nice reason under any circumstance.

 

[RustyNails]

Last month I clearly argued Obama was the favorite. I still think the EC map favors him actually - my argument has always been that his lead will complete evaporate over the summer.

Summers aren't always nice. Wait for September and October numbers. In all honesty, his campaign can possibly only derail after October numbers. If you want Romney to win, hope for October surprise in the form of job loss.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

So I have an Econ-99 question for Economy-GAF.

So yes I know that the government can't technically run out of money as its the sole issuer of its currency. However if it can't run out of money, why does debt matter exactly? Obviously we can't just print money whenever we like.

 

[TacticalFox88]

So I have an Econ-99 question for Economy-GAF.

So yes I know that the government can't technically run out of money as its the sole issuer of its currency. However if it can't run out of money, why does debt matter exactly? Obviously we can't just print money whenever we like.

Not really. In the grand scheme of things, it's not important. It's not like anyone can force us to pay it off.

 

[HyperionX]

So I have an Econ-99 question for Economy-GAF.

So yes I know that the government can't technically run out of money as its the sole issuer of its currency. However if it can't run out of money, why does debt matter exactly? Obviously we can't just print money whenever we like.

It would likely create pretty bad inflation if we simply tried to print our way out of debt. However, since inflation right is quite low (~2%), we can likely print a lot of money before inflation becomes a problem at this very moment.

 

[HyperionX]

Obama is still the favorite to win, using either RCP poll aggregate or 538's electoral model. Anyone saying otherwise is claiming to known something in the future will change and make Romney the favorite. Either you have a magic crystal ball or you're just making stuff up.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

So total debt doesn't matter just recently made debt, which is an indicator so we don't cause inflation?