• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
J

Jackson50

Member
The_Technomancer said:
Electorally he quite honestly does. Mitt needs literally everything to go right to win, if he loses pretty much even a single swing state he's screwed. Its not going to happen.
Click to expand...
Presently, Obama has a slight advantage. But given the precarious state of the economy, the electoral advantage could readily evaporate.
Invisible_Insane said:
Silver's forecast is live.
Click to expand...
The forecast affirms what most reasonable observers already inferred; the outcome will be close, although Obama retains a slight advantage. He should win unless the economy totally arrests.
gcubed said:
He is a weak GOP candidate, but he is a GOP candidate so the PAC money flows like wine solely due to the "R" next to his name.

edit... I see its not PAC money? Well... that sucks for Obama
Click to expand...
The fundraising should serve as an obvious indication that Republican enthusiasm will not be dampened by Romney's candidacy. He may be a weak candidate, although I think his demerits have been exaggerated, but the GOP will support him regardless. Obama is vulnerable to defeat. They'll not stay home as has been frequently posited.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
An important detail about the RNC and Romney numbers.

Mitt Romney and the RNC raised $76.8 million in May, easily outpacing $60 million from President Obama’s campaign and the DNC. With outside conservative groups alone already outspending the Obama campaign in swing states and Democrats begging donors for help, the money race is tilting quickly toward the GOP.

Romney and the RNC now have $107 million cash on hand, with $12 million of their monthly haul coming from donations less than $250.
Click to expand...
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/romney-rnc-outraise-obama-dnc-with-huge-768

Nearly all of their haul came from pretty large donations. My understanding is, now that Romney is the clear nominee, donors who gave to Romney's primary fund are now giving to his general election fund and can thus max out to him a second time. As with what happened during the primary, I suspect his pool of wealthy donors will dry up in a few months.

After which they'll be giving to the Super PACs, of course. But I think Romney's numbers will flatten out because his donor base is much smaller than Obama's.

As a point of contrast, 98% of Obama's totals came from donations $250 or less, compared to just 12% for Romney.
 
E

ezekial45

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
An important detail about the RNC and Romney numbers.


http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/romney-rnc-outraise-obama-dnc-with-huge-768

Nearly all of their haul came from pretty large donations. My understanding is, now that Romney is the clear nominee, donors who gave to Romney's primary fund are now giving to his general election fund and can thus max out to him a second time. As with what happened during the primary, I suspect his pool of wealthy donors will dry up in a few months.

After which they'll be giving to the Super PACs, of course. But I think Romney's numbers will flatten out because his donor base is much smaller than Obama's.

As a point of contrast, 98% of Obama's totals came from donations $250 or less, compared to just 12% for Romney.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that's what I thought.

I felt a bit depressed at first with Romney's surge, but now I see it's all just the buzz of getting the nomination and him 'beating his chest'. So to speak.

Romney could very well burn through his Campaign funds fast, which seems to have been donated in large chunks ahead of time. While Obama on the other hand will get more donations on a more consistent basis from his regular donors. Romney's grassroots support has always been pretty weak, compared to Obama. It may not mean much now, but it could turn into a bit of a problem if he plans on going head-on with him. Or he could just run back to his big donors.

I realize that summer will be a dark period, with Eurozone economy and other issues going against the President, but things won't get interesting, and more definite, till afterwards. With Romney picking his VP, campaign stops around the country, and of course the debates. That's when it'll get real. If we're all in a panic like this in late September-early October, then we'll really know what's what.

I'm not saying that Obama is going to win this, not at all. These past two weeks have been pretty sobering, and I think we all realize now how easily Obama can lose the election. It'll certainly be an emotional experience for most, that's for sure.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
GhaleonEB said:
An important detail about the RNC and Romney numbers.


http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/romney-rnc-outraise-obama-dnc-with-huge-768

Nearly all of their haul came from pretty large donations. My understanding is, now that Romney is the clear nominee, donors who gave to Romney's primary fund are now giving to his general election fund and can thus max out to him a second time. As with what happened during the primary, I suspect his pool of wealthy donors will dry up in a few months.

After which they'll be giving to the Super PACs, of course. But I think Romney's numbers will flatten out because his donor base is much smaller than Obama's.

As a point of contrast, 98% of Obama's totals came from donations $250 or less, compared to just 12% for Romney.
Click to expand...

I hope you are right
 
L

Lambtron

Unconfirmed Member
Aaron Strife said:
Mason-Dixon poll of North Dakota Senate finds Heidi Heitkamp (D) up by just a 1 point margin - hardly the Likely R many pundits have pegged it at.
Click to expand...
Living here, I'm positive it'll be close. Heidi is a pretty popular person in the state and her likely opponent is a huge scumbag.
 
H

Horse Detective

Why the long case?
Hey, never been in here, but was recommended here for some help on something


Sean2 said:
Sort of urgent,


Can Gaf help me come up with two ideas for political cartoons? They have to be relating to something current/controversial. I had some ideas, but I am only good at drawing, not coming up with dialogue.
Click to expand...
 
J

jaxword

Member
Sean2 said:
Hey, never been in here, but was recommended here for some help on something
Click to expand...

This turned up on facebook lately...

3XN3h.jpg
 
V

Vahagn

Member
The money worries me more than any other thing. Obama will handily win the debates. Mitt's not a good debater, and Obama is an excellent debater. People tuned out all the mud slinging thrown a Obama last time, you're not going to scare the public on an Obama presidency - you can only hope to make the public believe he's incompetent but he'll win in the debates.


People forget that Obama's weakness was on foreign policy and experience and the debates shored both those up instantly. Plus the EC votes are so far in Obama's favor that I don't see him losing because Mitt is such a horrible candidate by contrast - inspires no hope or faith or enthusiasm whatsoever from anyone except Mormons.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Vahagn said:
The money worries me more than any other thing. Obama will handily win the debates. Mitt's not a good debater, and Obama is an excellent debater. People tuned out all the mud slinging thrown a Obama last time, you're not going to scare the public on an Obama presidency - you can only hope to make the public believe he's incompetent but he'll win in the debates.


People forget that Obama's weakness was on foreign policy and experience and the debates shored both those up instantly. Plus the EC votes are so far in Obama's favor that I don't see him losing because Mitt is such a horrible candidate by contrast - inspires no hope or faith or enthusiasm whatsoever from anyone except Mormons.
Click to expand...

Eh, not even a great debater could defend Obama's economic record. And if things stagnate throughout the summer it'll be even harder. Romney is no slouch, he's a smart guy who prepares meticulously. And unlike McCain, he's clearly presidential - there are no worries about age, temperament, general understanding of the economy, etc.

I think the debates will be close enough for things to sway wherever the economy is heading - ie the economy will still rule. If things pick up and Obama does well at the debates, he'll win. If things continue to be shitty and Romney capitalizes at the debates, he'll win.

I can't really see Romney denting Obama on foreign policy unless the administration bungles something in the coming months. Is he going to try his "you apologize for America" bullshit to Obama's face? Good luck with that.
 
S

SouthernDragon

Member
Please stop posting those images. They are rather stupid, contribute nothing to the discussion, and only serve to erect ridiculous and extreme strawmen for people to attack.
 
S

SteveWinwood

Member
Fox318 said:
Anyone here getting The Political Machine 2012?
Click to expand...

If it comes to steam sure.

I enjoyed 2008 a lot and played it a bunch, but I'm trying to completely avoid Impulse nowadays and since Stardock has been friendly with steam since the buyout it's looking up for me on that front.

It's really not that political if that's what you're looking for. It's much too game-y in that sense. A very very simple and short civ style game where you only have influence and money to worry about. Still fun, and really cheap too.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Incognito said:
diablos - you seem worse than usual! what's the deal, man?
Click to expand...
I told myself I was gonna change my tune and not be all doom and gloom. I know a lot of the data still looks good for Obama. But I am starting to feel exactly the same way I did in 2010; lots of stuff that looks good on its own, but you can just tell something isn't right and won't end well. For example, Walker kind of seems like a prelude to something awful, just like Scott Brown. In any case, Europe and SuperPACs alone are a deadly combination that will no doubt be the thing that ends up pushing Obama way below where he needs to be on Election Day should he end up losing. It's just such a huge handicap he's going to have to overcome, even if we are to look at the situation before the dismal jobs report.

I'm actually kind of burned out on politics. I wish the GOP was sane and Washington wasn't a steaming pile of shit. I'd probably just stop paying attention to politics altogether.

And we still haven't even seen the Court rule on the mandate. This is a depressing month to be an Obama supporter/Democrat in general, and the terrifying thing is, it's just the beginning. :\

I also have to admit that not only am I pissed that SuperPACs are even legal like most everyone else here, but I honestly am having a hard time struggling with facing the reality that this is the result of 30+ years of uber-conservatives trolling the courts, and we have to deal with it. I honestly cannot believe that it's legal, and no matter what we do, we're helpless in terms of trying to stop it. It's an awful feeling. If something that extreme is permitted, what's next?
 
Kevitivity

Kevitivity

Member
Vahagn said:
The money worries me more than any other thing. Obama will handily win the debates. Mitt's not a good debater, and Obama is an excellent debater.
Click to expand...

BOs a great "speaker" (when he's reciting a written speech). Debater, no so much.

The economy is going to be a big topic in the upcoming debates, which is going to put BO on the defensive big time.

Romney is a great debater, however he can come across of robotic and cold.

Obviously, my mind is made up, but I'm still looking forward to this election season and the debates!
 
D

dramatis

Member
Kevitivity said:
Romney is a great debater, however he can come across of robotic and cold.
Click to expand...
I disagree that Romney is a great debater. He came off the Republican debates looking good (most of the time) only because he was extremely well-prepared, a trait that Obama happens to share. When Romney got 'politely pissed' at Perry, he wandered off script and blundered with that awful 10k bet, as if it would make his points stronger. If he were such a great debater, we would have known in 2008.
 
K

Kosmo

Banned
This Holder testimony is unbelievable (video in the middle, only 2 minutes):

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/hol...st-and-furious-don-t-refer-operation-fast-and

I disagree that Romney is a great debater. He came off the Republican debates looking good (most of the time) only because he was extremely well-prepared, a trait that Obama happens to share. When Romney got 'politely pissed' at Perry, he wandered off script and blundered with that awful 10k bet, as if it would make his points stronger. If he were such a great debater, we would have known in 2008.
Click to expand...

It should be interesting to see Romney debate Obama - Romney has only been involved in Republican debates at this level, meaning he gets stuck trying to walk a fine line to not piss off the far right. His speeches directly targeting Obama have been really good and now that he's attacking Obama, he will have much more leeway to not get caught up in being wishy-washy (Romneycare aside).
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
dramatis said:
I disagree that Romney is a great debater. He came off the Republican debates looking good (most of the time) only because he was extremely well-prepared, a trait that Obama happens to share. When Romney got 'politely pissed' at Perry, he wandered off script and blundered with that awful 10k bet, as if it would make his points stronger. If he were such a great debater, we would have known in 2008.
Click to expand...

Well that, and his Republican opponents were a bunch of idiots/crazies.
 
E

ErasureAcer

Banned
eznark said:
I buy everything Stardock puts out.


My revised map has Romney winning 279 - 259. It depends on him winning Wisconsin which depends on voter ID being enacted. If voter ID is not enacted, Obama wins Wisconsin and.....we have a 269-269 tie!!
Click to expand...

That tie scenario isn't gonna happen. Neither is the Romney victory. Flip Nevada, Iowa, Virginia and Colorado to Obama. NC and Wisconsin might go to Romney. He'll get Indiana too. That's all he's flipping.
 
F

Fox318

Member
SteveWinwood said:
If it comes to steam sure.

I enjoyed 2008 a lot and played it a bunch, but I'm trying to completely avoid Impulse nowadays and since Stardock has been friendly with steam since the buyout it's looking up for me on that front.

It's really not that political if that's what you're looking for. It's much too game-y in that sense. A very very simple and short civ style game where you only have influence and money to worry about. Still fun, and really cheap too.
Click to expand...

eznark said:
I buy everything Stardock puts out.


My revised map has Romney winning 279 - 259. It depends on him winning Wisconsin which depends on voter ID being enacted. If voter ID is not enacted, Obama wins Wisconsin and.....we have a 269-269 tie!!
Click to expand...

I have 2008 and I had a blast with it.

The best feature was the random maps and create-a-candidate.
 
E

eznark

Banned
ErasureAcer said:
That tie scenario isn't gonna happen. Neither is the Romney victory. Flip Nevada, Iowa, Virginia and Colorado to Obama. NC and Wisconsin might go to Romney. He'll get Indiana too. That's all he's flipping.
Click to expand...

Assuming the economy continues to slump, I'm thinking the electoral map will look a lot more like 2004 than 2008. I think Obama for sure keeps Ohio but for sure loses Iowa. States with Obama up by less than five right now will go to Romney (Nevada, Wisconsin (ID dependent), Colorado, Florida, Virginia). I think Obama keeps Ohio because the Bain bashing is playing really well there. Kaisch effect I guess?

To me if the election were tomorrow Obama obviously wins easily. But it's five months away. I'm starting to be swayed. Of course, almost all of the polls are head to head, and the ballots will not be. I think that come November 3rd, we will all be Gary Johnson fans!

Fox318 said:
I have 2008 and I had a blast with it.

The best feature was the random maps and create-a-candidate.
Click to expand...

I thought 2008 was a huge disappointment. I bought the first one in 04 and loved it, but they barely made any changes and actually made it more gamey in 2008. I'm guessing this new one will pretty much just be a reskin of 08. Oh well.
 
F

Fox318

Member
eznark said:
I thought 2008 was a huge disappointment. I bought the first one in 04 and loved it, but they barely made any changes and actually made it more gamey in 2008. I'm guessing this new one will pretty much just be a reskin of 08. Oh well.
Click to expand...

I never played 2004 so I must have had that for an advantage.
 
E

eznark

Banned
Fox318 said:
I never played 2004 so I must have had that for an advantage.
Click to expand...

Yeah. In 2004 they tried to make an actual strategy game a la 1960: The Making of a President. I assume that bombed, and they ended up just making a novelty game out of it.

A PC version of the board game Campaign Manager 2008 is available to play for free on yucata.de. It's a much better game.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
WSJ said:
Several Federal Election Commission commissioners signaled their interest in approving a plan from two political consulting firms to allow campaigns to accept donations via text message...
Click to expand...

--- // ---


Behind Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (Ill.), almost two dozen liberal Democrats endorsed legislation this week to raise the federal minimum wage immediately from $7.25 to $10 per hour, the first such increase in three years.

The lawmakers think they’ve found a winning issue in an election cycle that’s featured the rise of the Occupy movement, criticism of Mitt Romney’s path to wealth and a class-centered fight over the Bush-era tax rates.


But no Democratic leaders have endorsed the measure, and the silence coming from their offices this week has highlighted the potential political difficulty in raising the minimum wage — a move that’s anathema to the powerful business lobby — amid sluggish economic times.
Click to expand...

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/231663-left-pushes-10-minimum-wage-but-leadership-balks
 
R

RustyNails

Member
India has created thousands of jobs in US
India has been among the fastest-growing sources of inward investment into the United States

The sizeable Indian investment flowing into the US is supporting thousands of jobs in this country, a senior US official has said, acknowledging the contribution of Indian money in creating employment during a tough economic environment.

"In recent years, India has been among the fastest-growing sources of inward investment into the United States, with a total of $3.3 billion in 2010, supporting thousands of new US jobs," Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, Robert Blake, said in his address to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a prestigious American think-tank based in Washington.

Foreign Direct investment into India from the United States reached $27 billion in 2010.

As the bilateral trade and investment between the two countries have been growing by leaps and bounds in recent years, economy would be one of the major topics of discussion during the forthcoming India-US Strategic Dialogue in Washington next week, Blake said.

In fact, recognising the significant role being played by the corporate sector of the two countries, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and External Affairs Minister S M Krishna, would address the annual gala of the US India Business Council on June 12, on the eve of the Strategic Dialogue.

US firms are well-positioned to support India's economic expansion; Blake said adding that opportunities abound for US firms in the Indian market.

India plans to spend more than $1 trillion on infrastructure in the next five years.
Click to expand...
 
E

eznark

Banned
Fox318 said:
Is it good?

I came so close to picking it up on Impulse before Gamestop purchased.

also:

QylX8.jpg
Click to expand...

All the money Walker raised would have been legal pre CU.

Elemental is ok. It launched completely broken though. I am totally biased though since I desperately wanted that game to be good so I've overlooked all the flaws. Wait on Fallen Enchantress at this point.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Obama's in trouble.

People don't care that Europe is going down. He can say as much as he wants that he sent a Jobs plan to congress and they didn't pass it, people won't care much.

People being the electorate that matters (not the 45% of people who are already voting for him)
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Am I the only one getting tired of Romney's favorite word to describe Obama being "failure"?

At this point, it could be turned into a drinking game. "Every time Romney says failure, take a shot. Drunk in 3 minutes!"

Also, how do you manage to call the economy a "moral" failure?

Mitt Romney called President Barack Obama's handling of the economy a "moral failure of tragic proportions," suggesting he's failed the American people by enacting policies that have been "muddled, confused and simply ineffective."
Click to expand...

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/...g-economy-moral-failure-tragic-185108291.html

If any policies are confusing, it's mainly because they are constantly stripped down to try to appease Republicans...

Bah. I need to stop reading the news. It making me overly frustrated.
 
F

Flying_Phoenix

Banned
Fox318 said:
Is it good?

I came so close to picking it up on Impulse before Gamestop purchased.

also:

QylX8.jpg
Click to expand...

Yeah like eznark said. It was legal to have something like Citizens United for a recall election in the state prior to well Citizens United.

Though while that may give someone comfort it then makes you ask, how in the fuck was that a legal to begin with? Like many of the events in the situation.

eznark said:
Yeah. In 2004 they tried to make an actual strategy game a la 1960: The Making of a President. I assume that bombed, and they ended up just making a novelty game out of it.

A PC version of the board game Campaign Manager 2008 is available to play for free on yucata.de. It's a much better game.
Click to expand...

So its like Democracy 2?

Diablos said:
I told myself I was gonna change my tune and not be all doom and gloom. I know a lot of the data still looks good for Obama. But I am starting to feel exactly the same way I did in 2010; lots of stuff that looks good on its own, but you can just tell something isn't right and won't end well. For example, Walker kind of seems like a prelude to something awful, just like Scott Brown.
Click to expand...

Walker only won because the election happened half a year after the recall initiative, had a boring (and shitty) candidate, and centered on unions, something most people don't give a shit about.

Obama's election really hangs on one thing at this point. Europe.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/06/romneys-unethical-stench.html

This is why Obama is going to have a very hard time for re-election.

Romney will run against a fictional Obama, and Fox will provide the cover, and unless Obama is able to change the frame of this debate, the relentless propaganda will be potent. Yes, the level of deception is so great it's breath-taking. But Romney, I'm increasingly inclined to believe, is a businessman all the way down. His ethics are about getting, as he put it, 50.1 percent of the vote in any state. He does not believe there are any ethical or principled reasons not to try and get to that 50.1 percent however he can. A businessman can compartmentalize core moral and political questions into marketing. The goal is 50.1 percent saturation.
Click to expand...

I agree, Romney will keep shouting things like, Obama's economy is a massive moral failure, or that Obama hasn't created any net jobs, or the Stimulus was a failure or that he has NO Jobs Plan. Media will repeat them, Summer economy slump continues. Romney will lead polls in July.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
cartoon_soldier said:
http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/06/romneys-unethical-stench.html

This is why Obama is going to have a very hard time for re-election.



I agree, Romney will keep shouting things like, Obama's economy is a massive moral failure, or that Obama hasn't created any net jobs, or the Stimulus was a failure or that he has NO Jobs Plan. Media will repeat them, Summer economy slump continues. Romney will lead polls in July.
Click to expand...

McCain ran against a fictional Obama in 2008, too.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher
338 339 340 341 342
17K
2M
UselessNapkin replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
395 396 397 398 399
20K
2M
RDreamer replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
396 397 398 399 400
20K
2M
ShironRedshift replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
393 394 395 396 397
20K
2M
Zaraki_Kenpachi replied
  • Locked
Poligaf 2017 |OT| It Almost Isn't Fair
9
4K
Bonen no Max'd replied
Top Bottom