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[eznark]

Yeah Diablos, good stuff in that poll. I also think PD can stop his peddling his shtick that the voters believe that Romney will handle the economy better.

Look at that 9 point difference in strongly favor the economic plans. The voters aren't stupid. Obama just needs to keep rolling with the Bain ads and saying Romney is going to benefit the wealthy and not the middle class.

That 16% no opinion on Romney is what is jumping out to me right now. That's a pretty damn big blank slate. If he starts running a ton of positive ads focused on what he claims he'll do for the economy, he could cut that "strongly" number down significantly. Obama has already been airing those Bain ads. If they haven't sunk in after what, 3-4 weeks, why would they ever?

 

[Diablos]

They probably have no opinion because he has zero appeal. He remains a question mark because despite his daily assault on Obama's policies, voters are having a hard time warming up to him.

This campaign will be negative, not positive. Positive Mitt Romney reeks of used car salesman (even more than negative Mitt Romney). Maybe Rubio can try it someday.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Yeah Diablos, good stuff in that poll. I also think PD can stop his peddling his shtick that the voters believe that Romney will handle the economy better.

Look at that 9 point difference in strongly favor the economic plans. The voters aren't stupid. Obama just needs to keep rolling with the Bain ads and saying Romney is going to benefit the wealthy and not the middle class.

The poll doesn't ask voters who they think will handle the economy better

 

[Hop]

They probably have no opinion because he has zero appeal. He remains a question mark because despite his daily assault on Obama's policies, voters are having a hard time warming up to him.

This campaign will be negative, not positive.

Aren't national campaigns always negative though, honestly?

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

That 16% no opinion on Romney is what is jumping out to me right now. That's a pretty damn big blank slate. If he starts running a ton of positive ads focused on what he claims he'll do for the economy, he could cut that "strongly" number down significantly. Obama has already been airing those Bain ads. If they haven't sunk in after what, 3-4 weeks, why would they ever?

Romney run positive ads? Only ads he will be running are on Obama's record and not on what he is going to do. And those Bain ads are working. Look at the unfovorables. Already at 47% and it is only June. What happens when those 16% move into that category? Obama just drop some bombs in the debate. Like how not everyone can depend on a blind trust to take care of them while they run for a political office since 2007.

The poll doesn't ask voters who they think will handle the economy better

Umm, read the question PD. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion on the candidate's plan for the economy? You're just mincing words now. I'll give you people being upset with how the economy is now and wish Obama had done more somehow. But asking about handling it in the future? Romney is going to lose that.

 

[Diablos]

Aren't national campaigns always negative though, honestly?

Sadly yes. But if we look at Obama's campaign compared to McCain's it was more positive. Romney can't sell optimism very well. He sounds like a twat.

 

[eznark]

Romney run positive ads? Only ads he will be running are on Obama's record and not on what he is going to do. And those Bain ads are working. Look at the unfovorables. Already at 47% and it is only June. What happens when those 16% move into that category? Obama just drop some bombs in the debate. Like how not everyone can depend on a blind trust to take care of them while they run for a political office since 2007.

What were they are in May? Has there been a significant swing? I'm saying that if it hasn't resonated yet, why will it over the next few months? Why would you assume 16% of those people will move into the opposed to Romney camp?

 

[gcubed]

Sadly yes. But if we look at Obama's campaign compared to McCain's it was more positive. Romney can't sell optimism very well. He sounds like a twat.

its also hard for him to sell optimism without an actual plan to... sell.

I'll be better i promise! isn't a great way to sell optimism

 

[Diablos]

its also hard for him to sell optimism without an actual plan to... sell.

I'll be better i promise! isn't a great way to sell optimism

I know a lot of SNL skits are hit/miss, but this really hits the nail on the head in terms of Romney's lack of charisma and his inability to reach out to voters:

http://www.hulu.com/watch/348496

 

[Al-ibn Kermit]

That 16% no opinion on Romney is what is jumping out to me right now. That's a pretty damn big blank slate. If he starts running a ton of positive ads focused on what he claims he'll do for the economy, he could cut that "strongly" number down significantly. Obama has already been airing those Bain ads. If they haven't sunk in after what, 3-4 weeks, why would they ever?

Voters won't believe any positive ads or promises that Romney makes, for obvious reasons. He literally has taken both sides on nearly every single issue. If he tries to make any solid, middle-of-the-road promises that most voters will support, then he'll be slammed down with counter-ads by the Obama campaign. That's why only negative ads make sense for him.

I think as we near the election, Romney's numbers will steadily rise over the summer until it seems like it might be a dead heat but once the real campaign ad blitz and debates begin, he'll be faltering and his numbers will plummet. I don't see a way for him to really change his image as he has been in perpetual campaign mode since 2008.

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

What were they are in May? Has there been a significant swing? I'm saying that if it hasn't resonated yet, why will it over the next few months? Why would you assume 16% of those people will move into the opposed to Romney camp?

Here is what I could find: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_20120520.html

It's all over the map. You have Obama not doing a good job. But then you have things like Romney only caring about the wealthy.

 

[Black Republican]

was just thinking, if obama wins relection will it be framed in the media as weakest president to win reelection with less electoral votes than 08 or miracle breakthough depsite economic downturn?

 

[Diablos]

was just thinking, if obama wins relection will it be framed in the media as weakest president to win reelection with less electoral votes than 08 or miracle breakthough depsite economic downturn?

PD troll account? Is that you behind a proxy, pal?

 

[Measley]

was just thinking, if obama wins relection will it be framed in the media as weakest president to win reelection with less electoral votes than 08 or miracle breakthough depsite economic downturn?

It'll be framed as the comeback kid. Especially if Dems hold on to the Senate, and make significant gains in the house.

Personally, I think Obama's winning by an electoral landslide in November.

 

[AlteredBeast]

It'll be framed as the comeback kid. Especially if Dems hold on to the Senate, and make significant gains in the house.

Personally, I think Obama's winning by an electoral landslide in November.

Bigger than 08? I just cant see that happening.

 

[Diablos]

Personally, I think Obama's winning by an electoral landslide in November.

Naw. This election will most likely be decided by 1-3 states but Obama should be able to carry them.

 

[gcubed]

Bigger than 08? I just cant see that happening.

i dont see it bigger than 08. I think at most he can hope for is just about the same (with a state swapped out here and there). I'd be surprised if by the end of the day he carried Florida.

I dont really see it "close"... just too much going against Romney in the electoral map.

 

[Measley]

Bigger than 08? I just cant see that happening.

About the same as '08, minus Indiana.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

I don't think there's going to be much optimism in Romney's campaign. Optimism isn't what Republican voters want. They want to hear about how bad Obama sucks. It's going to be a one-trick pony message that I hope backfires on him.

 

[CrazyDude]

I don't think there's going to be much optimism in Romney's campaign. Optimism isn't what Republican voters want. They want to hear about how bad Obama sucks. It's going to be a one-trick pony message that I hope backfires on him.

Neogaf ads are already joining in!

 

[BotoxAgent]

All the young voters will be staying home playing Halo 4

 

[Hop]

Optimism isn't what Republican voters want.

So I was at lunch, and one of the TVs has Fox News on, and everything was ALERT! BREAKING NEWS! LOUD NOISES! The presidential daily briefing, just the mention of its existence, was all "alert! caution!" and the like. Even the commercials, if they're not redoing your floor it's "everything's going to hell!". That's, presumably, what their audience wants.

It's only slightly more annoying than CNN's "Everything Is Twitter".

 

[Oblivion]

Probably the easiest thing to hit Romney back on:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hw896Y4vzeg&feature=player_embedded

 

[RustyNails]

All the young voters will be staying home playing Halo 4

Sad but true. But then if you think about it, those guys weren't gonna vote that day anyway.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Probably the easiest thing to hit Romney back on:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hw896Y4vzeg&feature=player_embedded

I can just tell that I am going to hate TV once all this garbage hits the airwaves.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Neogaf ads are already joining in!

Electricity electricity?

PPP: Obama leads Romney 48-42. Just so you all know. I'd call it Lean Obama.

What's going to close the gap between Obama and Romney will be that Obama's not winning blue states as much as he did in 08, but if he wins them by even 1 vote, that's all that matters.

 

[eznark]

Electricity electricity?

PPP: Obama leads Romney 48-42. Just so you all know. I'd call it Lean Obama.

May as well inaugurate Romney now.

 

[Blergmeister]

All the young voters will be staying home playing Halo 4

First Halo destroys the Heartbreak Kid and now Obama...

Edit: eznark, give him a break, the candidate he is predicting victory for is at least ahead in the polls this time!

 

[eznark]

First Halo destroys the Heartbreak Kid and now Obama...

Edit: eznark, give him a break, the candidate he is predicting victory for is at least ahead in the polls this time!

I'm sure Feingold was ahead by 5-6 at this time in 2010 too! (I'm not actually sure of that at all)

 

[Gotchaye]

I remain pretty worried about Europe's effect on the US. I'm not sure that they can hang on another five months, and depending on the exposure of US banks things could get pretty bad here again. The Republican economic message is going to be a lot more appealing when it's taken for granted that socialism and big government did Spain in.

Edit: Things could get bad again even if US banks aren't very exposed. Another financial crisis is going to hurt everybody.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I'm sure Feingold was ahead by 5-6 at this time in 2010 too! (I'm not actually sure of that at all)

The first poll that showed Feingold in trouble was around Spring 2010. Rasmussen had him down 2 to a generic Republican.

May as well inaugurate Romney now.

I'm sure Governor Barrett will be there.

I seem to remember you mocking me for calling WI-GOV Lean Walker for being up the same amount.

 

[Blergmeister]

I'm sure Feingold was ahead by 5-6 at this time in 2010 too! (I'm not actually sure of that at all)

Well, not by 5-6...

Quick google search pulled up this for the end of June:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/06/feingold-leads-by-2.html

Russ Feingold leads challenger Ron Johnson by only two points, 45-43.

 

[markatisu]

Bigger than 08? I just cant see that happening.

Yeah I see it being less than 08 but it will be non-conventional and will highlight how bad the GOP has it with minorities and how new blue states (the SW) are making it so you don't have to rely on the trifecta of FL, OH, and PA like in the past decade

The media will eat that up as well writing about how the current GOP erased all the inroads Bush W gave them with Hispanics from 2000-2004

 

[SomeDude]

china just surpassed the US as worlds top economic power. 21st century to be "chinese" century: http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/study-shows-obama-slipping-global-esteem-china-now-171232998.html

 

[RustyNails]

John King USA cancelled

King has long been one of CNN's top political reporters, and he hosted the network's Sunday morning show, "State of the Union" before moving to primetime. But he struggled to gain much traction in the ratings, remaining a perennial third place finisher to Fox News (where Bret Baier has dominated the timeslot) and MSNBC. In May, for instance, he averaged 341,000 viewers — 200,000 behind MSNBC's Al Sharpton.

200k below Al Sharpton lol

It doesn't help when John King has the charisma of an potato. Besides, all CNN programs are indistinguishable from one another except maybe AC360. Bring one Republican strategist (Usually Alex Castellanos/Ari Fleischer) and bring one Democrat strategist (Usually Paul Begala/Hilary rosen) and do the questions. Do something new.

Also, I think Newt blasting John King on the national stage brought down major cred for the producers.

Well, not by 5-6...

Quick google search pulled up this for the end of June:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/06/feingold-leads-by-2.html

Eh. I wouldn't compare mid-term election dynamics with a presidential one.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Yeah I see it being less than 08 but it will be non-conventional and will highlight how bad the GOP has it with minorities and how new blue states (the SW) are making it so you don't have to rely on the trifecta of FL, OH, and PA like in the past decade

The media will eat that up as well writing about how the current GOP erased all the inroads Bush W gave them with Hispanics from 2000-2004

If the GOP ran a Hispanic, legitimately pro-immigration candidate they might have a chance. Not Rubio, who's Cuban and only offers tepid support for a butchered DREAM Act.

Maybe Brian Sandoval? He's very popular in Nevada.

Of course, plenty of the GOP's surrogates (in Congress or in state legislatures) would still keep up their anti-immigration stance. I don't think one candidate could win them over, similar to how it was absurd to think Herman Cain would steal black voters from Obama.

 

[Diablos]

Probably the easiest thing to hit Romney back on:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hw896Y4vzeg&feature=player_embedded

This is a great ad.

LOL @ Romney knowing what it's like to almost get fired.

 

[SomeDude]

For those who don't want to waste time finding the obvious error: the article linked to is actually about perceptions of economic power. That is, a majority of people polled thought that China was the most important country economically.

it's over cyan, and you know it.

 

[RustyNails]

its over cyan

 

[CHEEZMO™]

Secession soon.

 

[Diablos]

Soon:

Chinese massage parlors are taking over the US, Obama is doomed

 

[Averon]

Reading about the Dimon senate hearing is depressing, infuriating, and predictable.

 

[XMonkey]

That 16% no opinion on Romney is what is jumping out to me right now. That's a pretty damn big blank slate.

Understandably, it's hard to have an opinion on Romney's handling of the economy when he hasn't said much of anything about his economic plans.

 

[Officerrob]

Understandably, it's hard to have an opinion on Romney's handling of the economy when he hasn't said much of anything about his economic plans.

This is Romney's problem. Eventually he is going to have to put out some actual plans and stand for something and when he does, he will no doubt either piss off tea baggers or independents.

 

[eznark]

Understandably, it's hard to have an opinion on Romney's handling of the economy when he hasn't said much of anything about his economic plans.

Right it's an opportunity for him. Too bad for the GOP he is an inept douche and will blow it.

 

[Black Republican]

al sharpton= dem ratings?

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

its over cyan

I'm not sure how worried I should be with China become a true superpower to rival the U.S. I mean they aren't as bad as say the Soviet Union, but they aren't people I feel comfortable with, or at least not as comfortable as say India, Japan, or the United Kingdom.

That is new. I remember partying in Ogg the last couple days with my then girlfriend after her exams were done.

Things have likely changed. I remember when I was in the dorms the R.A.s were like watchhounds. They kept reminding me that I had X amount of hours before I had to leave. It was enforced except in special circumstances. This happened in both colleges I went to. Duders in the first college got pissed when I told them that I would have to wait until the morning since my mom was driving cross country to pick me up. School wants to get and save every cent. Even if you had a cool R.A. (you know the ones that let you smoke weed and drink beer) they would give you an extra day, or two if the are really cool. No freeriders using their electricity.

 

[Oblivion]

Stewart did a great job skewering Rick Scott yesterday:

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsme...ida_voter_purge_rick_scott.php?ref=fpnewsfeed

John Oliver interviewing John Fund was great too.

Edit: that's a lot of Johns...

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

If the GOP ran a Hispanic, legitimately pro-immigration candidate they might have a chance. Not Rubio, who's Cuban and only offers tepid support for a butchered DREAM Act.

Maybe Brian Sandoval? He's very popular in Nevada.

Of course, plenty of the GOP's surrogates (in Congress or in state legislatures) would still keep up their anti-immigration stance. I don't think one candidate could win them over, similar to how it was absurd to think Herman Cain would steal black voters from Obama.

I don't know if a Hispanic candidate could make through the diverse Republican primaries and caucus of Iowa, NH, and South Carolina.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I don't know if a Hispanic candidate could make through the diverse Republican primaries and caucus of Iowa, NH, and South Carolina.

Cain would have. Race is less of a problem than beliefs. If a Hispanic ran on a sensible immigration policy he wouldn't make it. If a Hispanic firebrand with far right positions on everything ran, he'd do well and republicans would believe he could win the Hispanic vote. Conservatives often view issues of race and gender in simplistic ways. Putting Palin on the ticket will win female votes, Cain would win black votes, Rubio will win Hispanic votes, etc