• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
T

ToxicAdam

Member
I think we're going to see how powerful Drudge's influence is in the next few weeks. He's been laying on Santorum for the past few days. (Of course, Santorum's been giving plenty of fodder)
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
ToxicAdam said:
I think we're going to see how powerful Drudge's influence is in the next few weeks. He's been laying on Santorum for the past few days. (Of course, Santorum's been giving plenty of fodder)
Click to expand...

I'm baffled that Santorum's handlers haven't told him to just stop digging. He can start by expanding his speech venues; essentially all he is doing is speaking at churches and Christian events.

The economy is getting better, but republicans need to stop acting like the economy has completely been fixed in the last 60 days. There are still problems, people are still out of work, it's time to get back on message.

Imagine if you were an influential establishment republican. Would you be impressed by Santorum's recent week of gaffes, ridiculous statements, and general combativeness? The man just oozes anger. If he wins Michigan (unlikely) I can't imagine anyone deciding he's nominee worthy. Instead they'll be begging Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan, etc to re-consider. There's plenty of time for someone to enter the race and get on enough ballots to even out the delegate lead
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Cloudy said:
Dow testing 13k. It's been a while since I heard "the Obama stock market" thrown around by the GOP lol
Click to expand...

cavuto.JPG


That is from 2009 I believe.
 
Z

Zzoram

Member
I hope Santorum cleans the floor with Romney in Michigan.

Santorum's laser focus on manufacturing in all the past debates should be a big selling point there, and Romney's constant talk about letting GM go bankrupt is a big negative.

The question now is if Gingrich is going to attack Santorum and help Romney. However, Gingrich seems to actually hate Romney as a person, so maybe he'll not attack Santorum just to spite Romney.
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
I see it changing once the Republican Primary is over. Obama has millionaire and billionaire backers too, but they might not see much reason to donate right now. Obama campaign isn't in full swing mode.

As per the TPM Article (Thanks for linking it Ghaleon!), they have already seen enthusiasm go up since Obama campaign made the decision to support Super PACs.

I expect Dem SuperPACs to rely on Hollywood Moguls and New York Area.

In other news, Billy Graham's Son continues to be an idiot:
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...esident-obama-not-a-muslim.php?ref=fpnewsfeed



Also, Adelson may spend up to 100 million dollars for Presidential Campaign to defeat Obama:
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/02/adelson-i-might-give-100-million.php?ref=fpnewsfeed
Click to expand...
100m? Mother of pearl :eek:
 
S

speculawyer

Member
BotoxAgent said:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHaMqHh5NZ4&feature=player_embedded

probably posted already, but seriously, WTF is wrong with Romney!? lol
Click to expand...

Someone needs to edit that where it is from Romneybot's view and he has computer code flashing on the screen like in Terminator. Show a square-foot of a car then . . . Analyzing . . . AMC Pacer.


Clevinger said:
What a charismatic and likeable dude. I'd love to have a (diet) pepsi with him.
Click to expand...

Caffiene-free version.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
ToxicAdam said:
I think we're going to see how powerful Drudge's influence is in the next few weeks. He's been laying on Santorum for the past few days. (Of course, Santorum's been giving plenty of fodder)
Click to expand...

I'm probably just well out of the loop, but is he influential at all anymore? Seemed like he peaked before '08.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Minnesota redistricting is done. State court released their maps.

1st District (Walz-D): 51% Obama (no change)
2nd District (Kline-R): 51% Obama (+3 Obama)
3rd District (Paulsen-R): 51% Obama (-1 Obama)
4th District (McCollum-D): 63% Obama (-1 Obama)
5th District (Ellison-D): 73% Obama (-1 Obama)
6th District (Bachmann-R): 43% Obama (-2 Obama)
7th District (Peterson-D): 47% Obama (no change)
8th District (Cravaack-R): 53% Obama (no change)

More tossup districts than previously. 1, 2, 3, and 8 are all competitive. 7 will be when Peterson retires.

Bachmann's district is out of reach now but it should be noted, her house is now in McCollum's district. She says she'll still run in the new 6th though.

The big change is that Kline's district now could be competitive, as well as Cravaack's. I'm sort of in the mindset that if Walz and Peterson won in 2010, they're probably safe this year. It could be 6-2 Dem in a perfect storm, but it'll probably be 5-3.
 
I

Invisible_Insane

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Looks like Romney's donar base is largely tapped out, and will have to turn to the Super PACs to fund the rest of the campaign.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/images/2500-donations-final.png

That helps explain part of his drop in fundraising from last month. It's so hilarious that he's having to burn this much cash to beat Santorum and Gingrich.

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/20...ts.php?ref=fpa
Click to expand...
I'm not sure that I'd make all that much of that chart, necessarily. It represents the donating patterns who have donated to Romney so far, but it's possible that he can recruit additional donors once he's wrapped up the nomination and is focusing on Obama--those could be donors waiting it out entirely until the nomination is no longer being contested, or (depending on election law, which I'm not thoroughly familiar with) donors to rival campaigns who will get on board once we turn to the general?
 
J

Jackson50

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I'm baffled that Santorum's handlers haven't told him to just stop digging. He can start by expanding his speech venues; essentially all he is doing is speaking at churches and Christian events.

The economy is getting better, but republicans need to stop acting like the economy has completely been fixed in the last 60 days. There are still problems, people are still out of work, it's time to get back on message.

Imagine if you were an influential establishment republican. Would you be impressed by Santorum's recent week of gaffes, ridiculous statements, and general combativeness? The man just oozes anger. If he wins Michigan (unlikely) I can't imagine anyone deciding he's nominee worthy. Instead they'll be begging Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan, etc to re-consider. There's plenty of time for someone to enter the race and get on enough ballots to even out the delegate lead
Click to expand...
Perhaps Santorum's handlers are as incompetent and curbstone as him. That would not be terribly surprising as Santorum's been largely ignored by the party. The benefits of party support are multitudinous; signalling is the principal benefit, but it's not the sole one. In addition to employing some of the party's most talented political operatives, Romeny also has access to numerous elected officials who can provide advice and support. I've long explicated my rationale for why Romney will win the nomination. This may be one of the myriad advantages afforded a candidate with party actor support.
Zzoram said:
I hope Santorum cleans the floor with Romney in Michigan.

Santorum's laser focus on manufacturing in all the past debates should be a big selling point there, and Romney's constant talk about letting GM go bankrupt is a big negative.

The question now is if Gingrich is going to attack Santorum and help Romney. However, Gingrich seems to actually hate Romney as a person, so maybe he'll not attack Santorum just to spite Romney.
Click to expand...
Laser focus? I recall him mentioning manufacturing a few times. I'm not sure that constitutes a laser focus. Regardless, I doubt manufacturing will resonate in the GOP primary. In the general election, sure. But the issue not as salient in a GOP primary.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Invisible_Insane said:
I'm not sure that I'd make all that much of that chart, necessarily. It represents the donating patterns who have donated to Romney so far, but it's possible that he can recruit additional donors once he's wrapped up the nomination and is focusing on Obama--those could be donors waiting it out entirely until the nomination is no longer being contested, or (depending on election law, which I'm not thoroughly familiar with) donors to rival campaigns who will get on board once we turn to the general?
Click to expand...
The problem it represents is that there are far fewer of the wealthy donors to go around. The article points out that Hillary Clinton ran into a similar problem in her primary against Obama, who had a much broader base to pull (small) donations from. Romeny's donor base has the outlet of the PACs, though. In the end I think it will be a balloon squeeze, with donors maxing out to the Romney campaign and then funding the PACs heavily.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Manufacturing is certainly important to Michigan republicans. I think it's pretty clear Santorum has nothing to prove on social values, he's got that base shored up. So why is he continuing to talk to them instead of focusing on manufacturing in Michigan of all places?

It makes sense that he would be surrounded by incompetent handlers, but it's hard to believe anyone can be incompetent enough to focus entirely on social issues in the most important state (thus far) of the primary, where the economy sucks and a manufacturing platform would appeal to voters. Romney is rolling out a new tax plan sometime today for instance. Why hasn't Santorum rolled out more specifics on his manufacturing plan, or given it some catchy talking point name, etc
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
I'm probably just well out of the loop, but is he influential at all anymore? Seemed like he peaked before '08.
Click to expand...

It's hard to determine, because the site is usually so on the ball with the news it's hard to tell if he's driving the narrative or just reacting to it.


But based on the negative stories (about Perry, Gingrich and Santorum) that have gained traction the past 5 months, I'm guessing he is still pretty influential among Republicans.
 
I

Invisible_Insane

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Manufacturing is certainly important to Michigan republicans. I think it's pretty clear Santorum has nothing to prove on social values, he's got that base shored up. So why is he continuing to talk to them instead of focusing on manufacturing in Michigan of all places?

It makes sense that he would be surrounded by incompetent handlers, but it's hard to believe anyone can be incompetent enough to focus entirely on social issues in the most important state (thus far) of the primary, where the economy sucks and a manufacturing platform would appeal to voters. Romney is rolling out a new tax plan sometime today for instance. Why hasn't Santorum rolled out more specifics on his manufacturing plan, or given it some catchy talking point name, etc
Click to expand...
Does he have handlers? By all accounts he's running a pretty low-budget campaign, with few campaign professionals to speak of.
 
M

markatisu

Member
PhoenixDark said:
It makes sense that he would be surrounded by incompetent handlers, but it's hard to believe anyone can be incompetent enough to focus entirely on social issues in the most important state (thus far) of the primary, where the economy sucks and a manufacturing platform would appeal to voters. Romney is rolling out a new tax plan sometime today for instance. Why hasn't Santorum rolled out more specifics on his manufacturing plan, or given it some catchy talking point name, etc
Click to expand...

The main answer to your question is because Santorum was never supposed to get to this point, he is very one dimensional and its only by Romney's horrific failings as a nominee that we are even pondering what Santorums views and plans are.

LOL at the thought of Santorum having handlers, he might actually be able to win elections if he had those

Well he has spokespeople, I'm assuming he has a campaign manager and trusted aides too.
Click to expand...

Volunteers and friends don't count. His campaign is about as organized and funded as if a GAF member ran for office using these boards as their base of operations
 
R

RustyNails

Member
ToxicAdam said:
But, there's no stigma attached to them with the right. Especially in support for a candidate who says, "Corporations are people, my friend."


My point was that those that are most likely to be Obama supporters have read a calvacade of negative press about them as vehicles for fundraising. So, there's going to be this huge built-up resentment in using them initially. That may change.
Click to expand...
Superpacs are seen as necessary evil for elections from the left. No one likes them or even approves of their existence, but they're needed to play the game. Funny thing is (or sad, depending on the way you look at it), if Obama wins, he'll be blasted by the conservative groups for stealing election with special interest money.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
markatisu said:
Volunteers and friends don't count. His campaign is about as organized and funded as if a GAF member ran for office using these boards as their base of operations
Click to expand...

I think you're underrating GAF. I'm pretty sure Poligaf by itself could run a campaign better than Mitt, Newt, and Santorum are.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
When is the last time a candidate will come out of the primary as a weaker nominee than Romney? Obama had a tough primary but it would not be fair to say he was a weak nominee going into the convention by any means.

Kerry? Dukakis?
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Cheebo said:
When is the last time a candidate will come out of the primary as a weaker nominee than Romney? Obama had a tough primary but it would not be fair to say he was a weak nominee going into the convention by any means.

Kerry? Dukakis?
Click to expand...

There's a good chance whoever comes out of the GOP nominating process is going to get crushed on walter mondale levels...you might have to go back there
 
A

Allard

Member
Cheebo said:
When is the last time a candidate will come out of the primary as a weaker nominee than Romney? Obama had a tough primary but it would not be fair to say he was a weak nominee going into the convention by any means.

Kerry? Dukakis?
Click to expand...

Dukakis. At least Kerry had a quality to him some Democrats wanted (War Hero) in a candidate, he was just really dull and didn't inspire enthusiasm. Romney has like zero good qualities as a candidate unless you are a corporate overlord.

These two primaries couldn't be further opposites either. 2008 was a primary where give or take people liked most of the candidates and it was a battle to see who was "The best". This primary is a battle of "Who can you tolerate the most?" I wonder what this primary might have been like if Gingrich didn't take a crap on Romney from Iowa to South Carolina because leading up to that point Romney tried to stay above the fray now he is deep in the ditch fighting it out with the other lowest common denominators and is still not winning or winning well.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Cheebo said:
When is the last time a candidate will come out of the primary as a weaker nominee than Romney? Obama had a tough primary but it would not be fair to say he was a weak nominee going into the convention by any means.

Kerry? Dukakis?
Click to expand...

Ironically the primary was changed in part to ensure whoever got the nominee was the strongest candidate, and not someone who picked up a few early wins thanks to extremist voters (say, Palin). Instead the GOP is stuck with a long primary where no one can possibly emerge as a strong nominee, thanks to the weak candidates

It's completely possible thank Romney won't get enough delegates to win the nomination outright. Amazing
 
M

Manmademan

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Ironically the primary was changed in part to ensure whoever got the nominee was the strongest candidate, and not someone who picked up a few early wins thanks to extremist voters (say, Palin). Instead the GOP is stuck with a long primary where no one can possibly emerge as a strong nominee, thanks to the weak candidates

It's completely possible thank Romney won't get enough delegates to win the nomination outright. Amazing
Click to expand...

It's completely possible that Romney will lose outright. God knows what kind of logic and/or massive ego is keeping Gingrich in the race- if he comes to his senses, drops out and backs santorum at just the right time (say, a day or two prior to michigan, or super tuesday) it would crush romney.

Not LIKELY...but possible.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Manmademan said:
It's completely possible that Romney will lose outright. God knows what kind of logic and/or massive ego is keeping Gingrich in the race- if he comes to his senses, drops out and backs santorum at just the right time (say, a day or two prior to michigan, or super tuesday) it would crush romney.

Not LIKELY...but possible.
Click to expand...

Gingrich is hoping for a Santorum-like boost that will propel him to the top after he wins Georgia. It's the only reason why he's still in there.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Really want to see if Romney's numbers keep going up in Michigan, or if PPP's numbers from the other day were just off... Debate should be really interesting, regardless, just to see how Santorum will respond to being the front-runner. No doubt his position on social issues will get prominent play and it could work out well for him.
 
A

Allard

Member
RustyNails said:
Gingrich is hoping for a Santorum-like boost that will propel him to the top after he wins Georgia. It's the only reason why he's still in there.
Click to expand...

Well that and getting as much exposure as possible to sell his books and stuff, that was the only reason he was ever in this in the first place. He is staying in the race as long as he possibly can until his campaign money is completely dry. As long as Adeleson keeps giving him 5 mil checks every month he will stay in it till the convention.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Manmademan said:
It's completely possible that Romney will lose outright. God knows what kind of logic and/or massive ego is keeping Gingrich in the race- if he comes to his senses, drops out and backs santorum at just the right time (say, a day or two prior to michigan, or super tuesday) it would crush romney.

Not LIKELY...but possible.
Click to expand...

Gingrich should stay imo, Georgia has a lot of delegates and Super Tuesday is almost 50% southern states. He can come back again considering how stupid Santorum is running his campaign.
 
M

markatisu

Member
Allard said:
Well that and getting as much exposure as possible to sell his books and stuff, that was the only reason he was ever in this in the first place. He is staying in the race as long as he possibly can until his campaign money is completely dry. As long as Adeleson keeps giving him 5 mil checks every month he will stay in it till the convention.
Click to expand...

Exactly he was never in it to win, just like Palin he uses the attention for speaking engagements/personal appearances and book sales.

But when he actually won some he decided he could have some interesting fun lol
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
Romney: I LOVE ALL THE THINGS
Click to expand...
Sounds as excitable as the Dog he kept caged atop his car... Definitely need to take the Rombot in for some tinkering, going a bit haywire there.

Anyway, just a concise piece on why the GOP's truly screwed, aside from their crappy candidates, their insatiably insane base.

Michael Tomasky: There Will Be No Saviors for the GOP in 2012
by Michael Tomasky Feb 21, 2012 4:45 AM EST
Prominent Republicans keep hoping for someone to rescue them from its slate of mediocre candidates. But the party’s biggest problem is the ideological bloodlust of its base.

The bombshell dropped in Saturday’s Playbook, the chattering-class email sent out every morning by the Politico’s Mike Allen. If Mitt Romney fails to win Michigan next Tuesday, a few high-powered Republicans have started saying, the party needs to go back to square one and recruit a new candidate. Yes, maybe it does. But what will that fix? Not much. What the party needs is not simply a new candidate. It needs someone with the courage to stand up and say that the GOP has gone completely off the deep end—and that the party could run an amalgam of Ronald Reagan and Mahatma Gandhi and he wouldn’t win as long as the party’s inflamed base keeps with its current attitudes. But it lacks such a person utterly. It’s a party made up of on the one hand unprincipled cowards, and on the other of people devoted to principles so extreme that they’d have serious trouble attracting more than about 42 percent of the vote.

Allen summarized a chat between an unnamed Republican senator and ABC’s Jonathan Karl this way: “The senator believes Romney will ultimately win in Michigan but says he will publicly call for the party to find a new candidate if he does not. ‘We’d get killed,’ the senator said if Romney manages to win the nomination after he failed to win the state in which he grew up. ‘He’d be too damaged’ … Santorum? ‘He’d lose 35 states,’ the senator said, predicting the same fate for Newt Gingrich. It would have to be somebody else, the senator said. Who? ‘Jeb Bush.’”

In the plus column for the Republicans, I’d make two points. First, whoever they get sure can’t be worse than Romney, who (as some of us were noting a few weeks ago, back when he was theoretically riding high) really is living down to my expectations. And he or she—well, he; it’s going to be a he if it happens—obviously can’t be worse than Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich. Our senator might be exaggerating about 15 states, but not by much. It’s long been my conviction, for example, that if Gingrich were the nominee, he’d manage to lose Georgia because for every Georgian who likes him there are surely at least 1.5 who are repulsed by him.

Second, it’s still only February. There’s time for people to wrap their heads around someone new. If a Jeb Bush or Chris Christie or Mitch Daniels were to declare an intention to run, they’d have time to solidify support. True, they will have missed the filing deadlines to get on most primary ballots (although not to participate in caucuses). But it’s still not too late to file, for example, for California’s June 5 primary—the filing deadline is March 23. If a late-entry candidate dominated the contests he did manage to enter, he could make a reasonable case that the voters really wanted him. This can’t wait until the convention, which isn’t until late August. That would be awfully late to be getting started with a presidential race in this day and age.

OK, so those are the grounds on which such a move is plausible. But here’s the problem. First, let’s consider the three men named above. What’s so savior-y about them? The Bush name? Please. It’s better than Nixon, but that’s about all that can be said for it. Christie’s tough-talking personality? That appeals to people on the right. But it could wear thin. And yes, the avoirdupois factor is an issue. Most Americans don’t want a president who looks like that. And Daniels has the charisma of an econ-department chair.

Will the Republican establishment keep the base in line? Not this year. If the base is driving the party into a ditch, the establishment is riding shotgun holding a shovel.
More importantly, each has litmus-test difficulties. Jeb, as Rich Yeselson pointed out over the weekend at the Washington Monthly, is kind of soft on immigration, and there is no single issue that revs the engines of the far right like that one. (Jeb opposed Arizona’s immigration law, among other things.) Christie appointed a Muslim judge and said, in a lacerating statement aimed directly at the kind of people who make up the GOP base, that opposition to said judge was based on “ignorance.” Daniels, back when he was a potential candidate, was regularly savaged by Rush Limbaugh. These are suddenly going to be right-wing heroes? Others mention Paul Ryan, but they’re just being delusional. Ryan would win about the same 15 states Santorum and Gingrich would, maybe 20, but most definitely not the right 20.

So there is no savior. And let us please be clear on why there is no savior. Because there is no one who can satisfy the base of the GOP—a cohort so drunk on ideology and resentment that they cheer electrocutions and boo a soldier—and be elected president of the United States. Period. The standard journalistic trope the past few months has been to say that the Republican establishment would step in at some point and not let things get too out of hand. But that’s mostly nonsense. This GOP establishment is barely less loopy than the base. If the base is driving the party into a ditch, the establishment is riding shotgun holding a shovel.

And there’s not one politician in sight who has the nerve to say anything about it. Romney is just a coward. If he were half the man his father was, he would do something like what his father did in 1964, when he warned the party nominating Barry Goldwater that it was headed off the rails. (Today Goldwater, considered a fanatic in his day, would be maybe about the 15th-most-conservative Republican senator.) But all Romney cares about, all any of them care about, is getting and keeping political power. They can’t see the obvious paradox—that their lust for the White House is making them submit to all the wishes of a fanatical base, which is exactly what will keep them from winning the White House.

Remember that satirical Brecht line about it being perhaps easier for the government to dissolve the people and elect a new one? It’s not a new candidate the right needs. It’s a new electorate.
Click to expand...
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
No one's going to swoop in to save them because even if there was a secret savior, why would they bother entering now at such a massive disadvantage? None of the remotely plausible GOP "future stars" today are going to be out of contention in 2016, when they won't have to enter six months before the election against an incumbent. Why blow their shot this year? Throw Romney to the wolves and they'll never have to hear from him again.

For all their Obama-mongering, none of the party players are so terrified of a second term that they'll throw themselves in front of the train this year.
 
A

Allard

Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
No one's going to swoop in to save them because even if there was a secret savior, why would they bother entering now at such a massive disadvantage? None of the remotely plausible GOP "future stars" today are going to be out of contention in 2016, when they won't have to enter six months before the election against an incumbent. Why blow their shot this year? Throw Romney to the wolves and they'll never have to hear from him again.

For all their Obama-mongering, none of the party players are so terrified of a second term that they'll throw themselves in front of the train this year.
Click to expand...

If I were the republican 'establishment' that cared more about the party then the ideology I would seriously start backing Santorum and then use PAC money to eviscerate him hoping for an astronomical landslide of a defeat that it forces the base to realize a "Pure Ideology" candidate cannot, and will not win ANYTHING on a national stage. Romney is so damaged that he likely won't win and the base will just use his loss as a means to go even further to the right alienating even more establishment GOP then it has already. This is a make or break moment, get all the hot air out now, let them take a huge defeat and then rebuild for the 2016 campaign.
 
I

Invisible_Insane

Member
Allard said:
If I were the republican 'establishment' that cared more about the party then the ideology I would seriously start backing Santorum and then use PAC money to eviscerate him hoping for an astronomical landslide of a defeat that it forces the base to realize a "Pure Ideology" candidate cannot, and will not win ANYTHING on a national stage. Romney is so damaged that he likely won't win and the base will just use his loss as a means to go even further to the right alienating even more establishment GOP then it has already. This is a make or break moment, get all the hot air out now, let them take a huge defeat and then rebuild for the 2016 campaign.
Click to expand...
giZ1c.gif
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher
338 339 340 341 342
17K
2M
UselessNapkin replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
395 396 397 398 399
20K
2M
RDreamer replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
396 397 398 399 400
20K
2M
ShironRedshift replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
393 394 395 396 397
20K
2M
Zaraki_Kenpachi replied
  • Locked
Poligaf 2017 |OT| It Almost Isn't Fair
9
4K
Bonen no Max'd replied
Top Bottom