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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Have you guys seen the video of Mitt Romney talking about how he is a native son of Michigan and then proceeding to talk about the height of trees in Michigan?

It was so awkward, can't find it on TPM right now
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
Wray said:
As I predicted, AZ looks to be a toss up this year. I'm still sticking to my prediction that it flips blue this year.
Click to expand...

Lets not get ahead of ourselves. That's still 6 percent undecided in a state that leans republican. I'm more inclined to believe that the bigger chunk of those undecideds aren't going to suddenly vote democrat.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
I realized something watching this debate, it is very clever to run very early in your career as a Senator like Obama and Clinton did.

If you have a long history in the Senate, you will have a lot of votes that will fuck you over.
 
C

Chichikov

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
I realized something watching this debate, it is very clever to run very early in your career as a Senator like Obama and Clinton did.

If you have a long history in the Senate, you will have a lot of votes that will fuck you over.
Click to expand...
Which is why we didn't have a senator president since Nixon (which is around the time when American politics start turning into what it is today).

And that's a shame, we need president who can work the senate, just look at LBJ.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
So, Bob McDonnell was announced as the commencement speaker this year at my University. Within hours, students started protesting to disinvite him and the Student Assembly is having some sort of meeting to discuss trying to get a different speaker. A lot of the students are citing issues with his support for that transvaginal ultrasound bill, but it really seems to be a general rejection of his policies. I know college campuses are typically more liberal, so this isn't indicative of a general feeling across the state, but it's hard not to share when politics gets so local.
 
I

Invisible_Insane

Member
I know people say foreign policy doesn't matter all that much in elections, but I'm going to be thoroughly horrified if any of these clowns ends up in charge of it.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
EskimoJoe said:
So, Bob McDonnell was announced as the commencement speaker this year at my University. Within hours, students started protesting to disinvite him and the Student Assembly is having some sort of meeting to discuss trying to get a different speaker. A lot of the students are citing issues with his support for that transvaginal ultrasound bill, but it really seems to be a general rejection of his policies. I know college campuses are typically more liberal, so this isn't indicative of a general feeling across the state, but it's hard not to share when politics gets so local.
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Apparently he decided not to sign the vaginal probe bill. But he is still pretty out there with some of his anti-gay, anti-birth control, crazy. He's got the Santorum vibe.

At age 34, two years before his first election and two decades before he would run for governor of Virginia, Robert F. McDonnell submitted a master's thesis to the evangelical school he was attending in Virginia Beach in which he described working women and feminists as "detrimental" to the family. He said government policy should favor married couples over "cohabitators, homosexuals or fornicators." He described as "illogical" a 1972 Supreme Court decision legalizing the use of contraception by unmarried couples. [...]
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http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2009_08/019701.php
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
So, this cuts against the larger overview of the Republican primary, and I live Jonathan Bernstein's take on the debate:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ate/2012/02/22/gIQAyg6QUR_blog.html#pagebreak

Republican voters and conservatives are losers because there are certainly strong arguments — mainstream conservative arguments — against President Obama’s policies, whether it’s on national security or the budget or health care or any other issue. But they’re not hearing any of it; they’re hearing third-rate slogans, misleading rhetoric and outright mistruths that would fit right in among the cheaper booths at a conservative convention.

And if one of these candidates is elected, then he’ll have very little that he’s promised to his constituents beyond not bowing to Saudi kings, not going on apology tours and not using a teleprompter.

It’s just sad.
Click to expand...
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
markatisu said:
AZ, CO, TX, NM, AZ, NC, will all be blue by 2030. Oh the fun we will have then
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AZ will be so blue it'll be counted twice.

The South will trend more Democratic over time. I know a lot of Democrats point to Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia specifically, but I think within the next decade or so, Georgia, Texas, and Arizona will also have moved into that column. Democrats will build a new coalition based on minority votes in the south/mountain/west regions, while the Northeast and Midwest will become more Republican. There are obvious exceptions. States like Illinois, New York, Minnesota, Massachusetts will all likely stay blue, and the bible belt states will stay solid red, but it'll definitely change up the electoral map in future elections. I think we'll start seeing concrete evidence of this in 2020, as Cuomo or whoever will probably be riding on Obama's success or failure in 2016.

The important thing though is that the overton window is going to move towards the left, mainly on social issues. Universal healthcare, stronger environmental protections, easier immigration system, and especially gay marriage will all be generally accepted by the American populace. Also, the electoral college will lose its relevance as more states pass the popular vote bill. The electoral college will still exist, but it'll be mainly for political junkies. So candidate trips to Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, etc. won't be as frequent or transparent.
 
T

teiresias

Member
speculawyer said:
Apparently he decided not to sign the vaginal probe bill. But he is still pretty out there with some of his anti-gay, anti-birth control, crazy. He's got the Santorum vibe.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2009_08/019701.php
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The VA House Republicans have passed an amendment that says if the only ultrasound possible (due to the early stage of pregnancy) is a transvaginal ultrasound then the procedure then becomes optional. This still makes absolutely little sense, because it's always been optional depending on what a doctor and their patient decide. Nothing they're trying to to do to put a better face on this changes the fact that it's "small government" *snicker* GOP introducing a bill intrusive into women's lives.

It's been highly entertaining, though, watching McDonnell tuck his tail between his legs and waver and finally change his support for this legislation as he watched SNL and Jon Stewart annihilate his hopes for national political prominence (at least for this election year) via a VP bid.
 
F

Flying_Phoenix

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
AZ will be so blue it'll be counted twice.

The South will trend more Democratic over time. I know a lot of Democrats point to Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia specifically, but I think within the next decade or so, Georgia, Texas, and Arizona will also have moved into that column. Democrats will build a new coalition based on minority votes in the south/mountain/west regions, while the Northeast and Midwest will become more Republican. There are obvious exceptions. States like Illinois, New York, Minnesota, Massachusetts will all likely stay blue, and the bible belt states will stay solid red, but it'll definitely change up the electoral map in future elections. I think we'll start seeing concrete evidence of this in 2020, as Cuomo or whoever will probably be riding on Obama's success or failure in 2016.

The important thing though is that the overton window is going to move towards the left, mainly on social issues. Universal healthcare, stronger environmental protections, easier immigration system, and especially gay marriage will all be generally accepted by the American populace. Also, the electoral college will lose its relevance as more states pass the popular vote bill. The electoral college will still exist, but it'll be mainly for political junkies. So candidate trips to Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, etc. won't be as frequent or transparent.
Click to expand...

Pretty much. Add in the fact that more and more minorities are voting and you'll have your leftist political trend.

Xenophobic and racist whites gave rise to America's right, now the one's they were fearful of will bring rise to the left.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Tonight Santorum really demonstrated why Obama ran for president so quickly. The longer you stay in the senate, the longer your legislative record becomes - full of concessions, appropriation bills, and "team" political votes. Santorum argued sometime you have to take one for the team, which caused the crowd to boo and jeer. That's the reality of Washington.

He started out pretty damn well but as voting records came up he just flailed and flailed. Also, no talk of his manufacturing plans. I think Romney will start pulling away from him now.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
R

RustyNails

Member
Averon said:
http://ap-gfkpoll.com/uncategorized/our-latest-poll-findings-february-2012

Another poll with Obama >50% against all GOP rivals. The GOP is just destroy themselves. The only thing, I think, that can sink Obama at this point is if gas prices get out of control for a long period of time.
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From that link,
There was good news for Republicans, too: Any of the four Republican candidates would likely top Obama among those age 65 and over, as well as among whites without college degrees
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I ask why, why, WHY
 
A

Averon

Member
http://nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com/_n...ers-a-missed-2012-opportunity-for-republicans



If Obama can win 80 percent of minority voters nationally, “he could get shellacked” among white voters “as badly as Democratic congressional candidates were in 2010, when they lost the white working class by 30 points” and yet “he could almost survive that level of shellacking,” Teixeira argued.

...

He predicted that Obama will lose among Pennsylvania’s white working-class voters, but “all he has to do is not get totally wiped out. He can afford a 15-point loss, he can afford a 20-point loss, what he doesn’t want is 30-point loss” among white working-class voters.

...

Stanford University political scientist Gary Segura said that the GOP “has missed a strategic opportunity” to win over Latinos. Obama, he said, “is assuming he has support (among Latinos) that he may not have, but he might ultimately get away with it anyway ... because of Republican messaging on the (immigration) issue.”
Click to expand...

The GOP's stupidly and short-sightedness on Latinos and immigration is astounding.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Aww shit, is Santorum tanking hard now?

What an idiot. He just couldn't keep his mouth shut about values voter bullshit. I hope he can bounce back.
 
X

XMonkey

lacks enthusiasm.
Averon said:
The GOP's stupidly and short-sightedness on Latinos and immigration is astounding.
Click to expand...

I'm quite enjoying their attachment to a sinking demographic ship. All the better because they don't seem to mind that they're already under water.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
anigif_enhanced-buzz-7864-1329962323-161.gif
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Diablos said:
Aww shit, is Santorum tanking hard now?

What an idiot. He just couldn't keep his mouth shut about values voter bullshit. I hope he can bounce back.
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Romney is the nominee, and has been for months. This is just a side-show to delay what is obviously coming.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
The Romney-Paul alliance has done a wonderful job of tamping down the non-Romney's. You have to wonder what's in it for Paul.

Maybe Paul thinks he can win this thing if it whittles down to him and Romney.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
ToxicAdam said:
The Romney-Paul alliance has done a wonderful job of tamping down the non-Romney's. You have to wonder what's in it for Paul.

Maybe Paul thinks he can win this thing if it whittles down to him and Romney.
Click to expand...

Paul isn't in this to be president. He's in this to get a platform to spout his worldview, and have a hand in making the GOP platform more libertarian.

Paul isn't attacking Romney because he assumes (like just about everyone else) that Romney is the likely nominee, and a combination of taking it easy on romney and bartering for delegates will get him what he wants.
 
T

thefro

Member
speculawyer said:
KuGsj.gif


Isn't that supposed to be the whole fucking point? That the tax-cuts would prevent a recession? My god, the pretzel logic.

They might as well say "the tax cuts didn't work because they didn't work but they still work."
Click to expand...

The other funny part is they whined about the payroll tax cut extension adding to the deficit when cutting taxes is supposed to increase revenue according to their logic.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
thefro said:
The other funny part is they whined about the payroll tax cut extension adding to the deficit when cutting taxes is supposed to increase revenue according to their logic.
Click to expand...

no, that's only when you cut taxes for "job creators!" tax cuts for working stiffs don't matter.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
Manmademan said:
Paul isn't attacking Romney because he assumes (like just about everyone else) that Romney is the likely nominee, and a combination of taking it easy on romney and bartering for delegates will get him what he wants.
Click to expand...

So, he's just angling for a prime-time convention speech? I don't really buy that.

If Paul woke up tomorrow and saw himself leading in the polls, he'd just step aside? Of course he wants to be President.
 
B

BotoxAgent

Member
markatisu said:
Yup one of the only good things George W Bush did for them was to make inroads with the Latino vote and they squandered much of that in 2008 and are basically giving it away completely in 2012.
Click to expand...

I am starting to believe the Republican base just hates brown people enough to just not give a shit about the political implications, forcing many Republicans to pander so they don't lose dem white votes.
 
R

RoninChaos

Member
Was wondering where this went.

I was listening to the news this morning and apparently Newt Gingrich's budget plan would increase our debt by a third over 10 years. Gotta be fiscally conservative though.
 
H

Hop

That girl in the bunny hat
ToxicAdam said:
So, he's just angling for a prime-time convention speech? I don't really buy that.

If Paul woke up tomorrow and saw himself leading in the polls, he'd just step aside? Of course he wants to be President.
Click to expand...

I think it's more that he'd like to be President. The others seem to want to be President to be President, to have the title and prestige and whatnot. So they're all fighting over being the better President. Paul seems to want to be President to popularize a perspective, and if he can do that without being President, okay. If he was really gung-ho about getting the title, he probably would've adopted more of the other candidates' brand of crazy, instead of sticking to his own brand.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Dax01 said:
Jobless claims remain at four-year low.
Click to expand...

Benen would do better to look at the four week rolling average, as the weekly series is noisy. That dropped another 7,000 this week.

Calculated Risk's eternally glum post about them linked over to an analysis claiming there is significant distortion in the jobless numbers because of distortions in the seasonal adjustment, caused by the recession.

It's a good hypothesis with a terrible analysis. The more accurate and easy way to do this analysis is to just look at the seasonal adjustment factor baked into the weekly numbers. They're published here (S.F. in the data). Here's the seasonal factors for the last 10 years for the same week of data:

Code: 
2/16/2002	94.8
2/15/2003	94.9
2/14/2004	96
2/19/2005	95.5
2/18/2006	95.1
2/17/2007	95.6
2/16/2008	96.2
2/14/2009	97.6
2/13/2010	98.9
2/19/2011	99.3
2/18/2012	98.3

You can see the recession did have an impact on the last few years, as it ticked up a couple points. How much did that affect the numbers? The average of the S.F. from 2002 to 2008 (before the financial crisis) was 95.4. Using that as the seasonal factor for this week puts claims at 361,709, rather than the reported 351,186. So there was an effect, but it's a small one, and the underlying trend is still positive.
 
W

Wolfgunblood Garopa

Member
Another example of a right wing think tank attempting to manipulate school curriculum

It’s worth noting that the Heartland Institute had already developed a video along these lines — titled “Unstoppable Solar Cycles,” which laid out the long-debunked theory that the sun is driving recent warming — and shipped it off to teachers. (These earlier efforts, according to one Heartland document, met with “only limited success.”)
Click to expand...

An online poll by the National Science Teachers Association in 2011 found that 54 percent of teachers had encountered climate skepticism from parents — and many teachers said they now teach climate change as a he-said, she-said issue.
Click to expand...

Not much we can do to stop the 1-2 punch of the Conservative entertainment industry and think tanks, other than vote against Republicans at every opportunity.
 
M

Mike M

Nick N
Whelp, after that debate I'd be shocked if Romney doesn't have Michigan and Arizona locked up. Election's back to being boring.

Maybe Santorum's supporters will jump ship to Gingrich in enough numbers to make Super Tuesday interesting.
 
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