PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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cartoon_soldier said:
I was about to post that! That was an interesting read. Will be good to see though what other pollster numbers come in at.

In other news. Obama Campaign is launching ads defending ACA/HCR:

Very Powerful, I hope when people see these they realize one of the many reasons HCR was so important
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zv26zzUMVjc&list=PLC70ED429FF836C4D&index=6&feature=plcp
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHRY52l2oDI&list=PLC70ED429FF836C4D&index=7&feature=plcp
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlVz5rmsqTA&list=PLC70ED429FF836C4D&index=5&feature=plcp
Click to expand...

Obama should've been putting out ads for ACA before it was passed to counter all the GOP attacks on it. The GOP was blatantly lying about it and Obama didn't even try to fight back.

These ads are great, but if they only exist on Youtube, most of voting America will never see them. This stuff needs to be on TV.
 
Zzoram said:
Obama should've been putting out ads for ACA before it was passed to counter all the GOP attacks on it. The GOP was blatantly lying about it and Obama didn't even try to fight back.

These ads are great, but if they only exist on Youtube, most of voting America will never see them. This stuff needs to be on TV.
Click to expand...

They will be there when the GE starts. Remember, Obama can't really seem to be campaigning right now to the Public until the Republican nominee is really selected.

Right now these are being used as tools for 2008 supporters and reminding them on things that have been done.
 
I don't know how Obama can make a TV spot that can capture the emotion of these youtube videos.

I guess he could buy a 1minute spot and air an edited version of these, but that will be so expensive.
 
120312_BB_CocktailSantorumEX.jpg.CROP.rectangle3-large.jpg


Santorum Cocktail Taste Test

He listed the drink’s primary ingredients as Baileys Irish Cream and orange-flavored vodka—Stoli, I think. The brunette huskily wondered about garnishing it with a cherry...Served in a bathtub of a cocktail glass, the Santorum stunned at first sight. It promised the texture of an Oreo-accented frozen-yogurt smoothie. The garnishes floating on its glazy meniscus—a constellation of Godiva dark chocolate flakes, an orange splotch of Angostura bitters—parodied the AbEx mises en place of precious haute cuisine. In the Rorschach blot of the bitters stain, I saw a Scottish terrier in profile, and I meditated first on Santorum’s fantasies about “man-on-dog” sex and then of course about Mitt Romney driving to Canada with his Irish setter on the roof of the car, his hands positioned at 10 and 2, no doubt.

My Santorum was sweet but balanced, with a subtle citrus pucker, and I asked the bartender to pour some into an old-fashioned glass so that our new friends could share a taste. (I’ve since come to think of this tasting-panel variation on the Santorum cocktail as the “3 Girls 1 Cup.”)

“That's nice,” said the blonde. “Real smooth. I don't like the creamy drinks, usually, but—”

“But it's a light creamy,” Freckles broke in.
Click to expand...
 
cartoon_soldier said:
I was about to post that! That was an interesting read. Will be good to see though what other pollster numbers come in at.

In other news. Obama Campaign is launching ads defending ACA/HCR:

Very Powerful, I hope when people see these they realize one of the many reasons HCR was so important
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zv26zzUMVjc&list=PLC70ED429FF836C4D&index=6&feature=plcp
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHRY52l2oDI&list=PLC70ED429FF836C4D&index=7&feature=plcp
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlVz5rmsqTA&list=PLC70ED429FF836C4D&index=5&feature=plcp
Click to expand...

Damn, I actually choked up watching the 1st one.
 
Fantastic videos. Like someone said, a shame that it is hard to articulate those kind of things in soundbites for the unwashed masses to digest. I had over $150,000 in medical bills last year and luckily I had partial insurance that helped pay for all but around $9,000 of that (still a lot of money). Getting a few bills every week really took a toll on my mental state when I should have been focusing on getting better. Can't imagine being in the position where treatment is an actual decision and can alter your entire life negatively.

Also, Spike Dolomite (third video) is the most badass name ever. You hear and think some surly biker dude but its actually a middle-aged woman who could be your neighbor.
 
Zzoram said:
I don't know how Obama can make a TV spot that can capture the emotion of these youtube videos.

I guess he could buy a 1minute spot and air an edited version of these, but that will be so expensive.
Click to expand...

I don't think they'll do much good.

Most of the people I know that dislike the healthcare bill believe it's full of evil, nefarious things like death panels. For these people, I think disproving the negative claims is necessary in addition to espousing the bill's positive points. Not tackling the former will lead the target audience to ignore the latter.
 
makingmusic476 said:
I don't think they'll do much good.

Most of the people I know that dislike the healthcare bill believe it's full of evil, nefarious things like death panels. For these people, I think disproving the negative claims is necessary in addition to espousing the bill's positive points. Not tackling the former will lead the target audience to ignore the latter.
Click to expand...

You'd think it would be the media's job to expose all the lies, but instead the supposedly liberal media helped to perpetuate right wing propaganda about the ACA.
 
Aaron Strife said:
Not that I expect Obama to rout Romney in anything but the best-case scenario, but man, this is getting depressing.
Click to expand...

It's basically the media's fault. Republicans attack the media as being "liberal" so much that they lost their balls and now will let the Republicans lie as much as they want without calling them out on shit. That's lead to the Republicans getting bolder in their outright lies now that they know the media won't call them on it, and even if the media did, the GOP can cry "liberal" and shrug it off.

So now people think Obama is a secret Muslim trying to force death panels on America.
 
Obama needs to put together a better pull-out-of-Afghanistan plan. Nothing good is coming out of there. I don't even know what a good story from there would sound like.

But I sure know what bad stories sound like . . . Koran burning, protests, mass-murders, accidental bombings, accidental shootings, corruption, etc.


Can you even name some bad guy that you would be impressed if we killed? Mullah Omar is the only name I can think of and he is probably not even relevant. He could already be dead for all I know. GTFO.
 
cartoon_soldier said:
I was about to post that! That was an interesting read. Will be good to see though what other pollster numbers come in at.

In other news. Obama Campaign is launching ads defending ACA/HCR:

Very Powerful, I hope when people see these they realize one of the many reasons HCR was so important
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zv26zzUMVjc&list=PLC70ED429FF836C4D&index=6&feature=plcp
Click to expand...

Was good until the mom started crying. Looked way too fake.


Also, Spike Dolomite Ward? The Obama campaign team thought it was a good idea to highlight a person with a name like that? Really?
 
Oblivion said:
Was good until the mom started crying. Looked way too fake.


Also, Spike Dolomite Ward? The Obama campaign team thought it was a good idea to highlight a person with a name like that? Really?
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure they picked people with the right story, and didn't consider their name.
 
RDreamer said:
Romney's also got friends that are owners of NFL teams lol
Click to expand...

He really can't help himself, can he? For a guy who's running for office (for Pete's sake!), he still seems really unprepared and/or poorly coached. Or maybe he really is just that out of touch, somehow.

Zzoram said:
It's basically the media's fault. Republicans attack the media as being "liberal" so much that they lost their balls and now will let the Republicans lie as much as they want without calling them out on shit. That's lead to the Republicans getting bolder in their outright lies now that they know the media won't call them on it, and even if the media did, the GOP can cry "liberal" and shrug it off.

So now people think Obama is a secret Muslim trying to force death panels on America.
Click to expand...

I think Aaron Strife may have been referring to PD's relentless moping as "depressing" more than any poll numbers.
 
TacticalFox88 said:
....Wow. You're trying too hard. You HAVE to be trolling, if you seriously believe Romney stands a ghost of a chance.
Click to expand...

He actually does if gas prices keep rising. It's a huge problem and people incorrectly put that blame on the POTUS.
 
Plinko said:
He actually does is gas prices keep rising. It's a huge problem and people incorrectly put that blame on the POTUS.
Click to expand...

High gas prices, a weak/slow economic recovery, the HCR bill having a very real possibility of being ruled unconstitutional by the SCOTUS in May, Citizens United, unemployment still over 8%, and a weak housing market.

It's going to be a tight race no matter what. And that's without mentioned how Repubs slaughtered Dems in 2010.
 
All this gas price talk is pointless. By the time November rolls around the prices will be falling again (like they always do) and be an inconsequential concern when people go to vote.
 
SuperPACs (Last comment from Joe Biden was that Republican SuperPACs could spend up to 800 million this year) accounted for 91% of advertising in Ala and Miss.

Television advertisements in Alabama and Mississippi promoting rival Republican presidential contenders have been paid for almost entirely by independent political action committees instead of the candidates’ campaigns. So-called Super-PACs supplied 91 percent of the 5,592 campaign ads that aired on broadcast television stations in the two states in the past month, according to data from New York- based Kantar Media’s CMAG, which tracks advertising ... Restore Our Future, a super-PAC backing Romney, aired ads 2,098 times in Alabama through March 11, compared with 279 spots from Romney’s campaign, according to CMAG.
Click to expand...

If Liberal donors don't step up their game, things will get very difficult with GE starting. They might not like the new playing field, but one side is taking full advantage of it and its time to step it up.
 
Interesting Wonk Stuff

Obama with Europe starting another trade fight with China

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304450004577278132260314666.html

Recovery Threat? States moving to make more cuts

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303717304577277772048523702.html

GOP Split over their 2013 budget over additional spending cuts. This upcoming fight will be big and the side that wins it will have a good head wind going into November.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/us/politics/gop-split-over-bid-to-revise-budget-deal.html?_r=1

Trying to demonstrate anew their push to reduce the size of the government, conservative House Republicans want to cap spending on programs under Congress’s discretion well below the $1.047 trillion cap set by the budget deal last summer. But House Appropriations Committee leaders and Republican moderates, facing tough re-election campaigns, want to stick to the agreement struck with President Obama seven months ago.
Click to expand...

New Rules for Insurance Exchanges

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ance-exchange/2012/03/12/gIQA3tez7R_blog.html
 
ToxicAdam said:
All this gas price talk is pointless. By the time November rolls around the prices will be falling again (like they always do) and be an inconsequential concern when people go to vote.
Click to expand...

Not entirely true, especially if the Iran thing carries on, which is highly possible.

Right now we have an overabundance of gasoline in our country. We've got too much. Yet, prices are still at $4 a gallon.
 
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/03/poll_for_first_time_in_10_year.html

Despite the fact Christie's work is lagging behind states like Massachusetts in the reduction of UE rates, his approval rating is through the roof.

Look, PD is trolling, but this doesn't bode well for Obama's re-election chances.

Christie's numbers tell me that perception is more important than reality. The perception of Obama as a failure is firmly fixed in the public's mind even though he's actually done a good job in office.

Christie on the other hand, hasn't done much that's truly positive, yet people think he's a success.
 
PPP releasing Presidential numbers for PA today. That is always a good indicator of how Obama is doing (as for some reason PA has been always seen as his litmus test)

Gallup notes the spike in economic confidence:
Click to expand...

Gallup Approval still is high for Obama. First read thinks CBS/NYT poll was an outlier

Last night’s New York Times/CBS poll was the latest survey to show a job-approval drop for President Obama; in one month, his score declined nine points, from 50% to 41%. This raises the question: What major event occurred in the past month to account for this drop -- or even in the past week, when our NBC/WSJ poll had Obama’s approval rating at 50%? There are two potential culprits here: gas prices and Iran. But did those two issues really account for a nine-point drop, bringing Obama to his lowest rating in that survey (lower than after the debt-ceiling debacle)? What’s more, is it possible for Obama to be at 41% approval but leading Romney by three points (47%-44%) in a head-to head? Invoking the Chewbacca Defense, it just doesn’t make sense. Then again, actions speak louder than words, and the Obama White House has been VERY defensive on gas prices. Bottom line: It’s probably worth waiting for a few more national polls before reaching the conclusion that something has happened to Obama’s standing in the past month.
Click to expand...
 
Sirpopopop said:
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/03/poll_for_first_time_in_10_year.html

Despite the fact Christie's work is lagging behind states like Massachusetts in the reduction of UE rates, his approval rating is through the roof.

Look, PD is trolling, but this doesn't bode well for Obama's re-election chances.

Christie's numbers tell me that perception is more important than reality. The perception of Obama as a failure is firmly fixed in the public's mind even though he's actually done a good job in office.

Christie on the other hand, hasn't done much that's truly positive, yet people think he's a success.
Click to expand...

Maybe people like Christie's personality? I mean, he's definitely not my idea of a politician in terms of actually being more laid back and less politically correct, as demonstration by that video from earlier in the week.
 
Apparently Gingrich wants to have a "60-day discussion" before the convention as he believes he can realistically talk the GOP delegates into voting him as the nominee.

The ego on this guy.
 
LosDaddie said:
High gas prices, a weak/slow economic recovery, the HCR bill having a very real possibility of being ruled unconstitutional by the SCOTUS in May, Citizens United, unemployment still over 8%, and a weak housing market
Click to expand...
High gas prices - We might see gas tax holiday or something in summer, even though campaign Obama doesn't like it
HCR Bill - will not be ruled unconstitutional. SC will have to rule against precedent and commerce clause.
Unemployment - will definitely fall under 8.0% in the next few months. It takes 165K jobs per month for unemployment to fall below 8.3% from now till October.
Citizens United - Won't be a problem. Obama has superpacs too. Big money vs Big money.
Housing Market - The only drag out of all, I suppose. But it's not translating to huge negative polling for Obama. Obama did big things to improve it as well. It's a big issue, a serious one too. But it's not election material.
 
Although Obama can try to educate the populace, the price of oil might be a very difficult thing for him to deal with. Who thinks this will affect his ability to be re-elected?

It's going to be a tight race no matter what. And that's without mentioned how Repubs slaughtered Dems in 2010.
Click to expand...

I agree. The fact that the Dems were overpowered by the Teaparty so easily means that it'll take more then a few gaffes to get a victory. No victory will be easy, come November.
 
RustyNails said:
High gas prices - We might see gas tax holiday or something in summer, even though campaign Obama doesn't like it
HCR Bill - will not be ruled unconstitutional. SC will have to rule against precedent and commerce clause.
Unemployment - will definitely fall under 8.0% in the next few months. It takes 165K jobs per month for unemployment to fall below 8.3% from now till October.
Citizens United - Won't be a problem. Obama has superpacs too. Big money vs Big money.
Housing Market - The only drag out of all, I suppose. But it's not translating to huge negative polling for Obama. Obama did big things to improve it as well. It's a big issue, a serious one too. But it's not election material.
Click to expand...
We're not going to get a gas tax holiday; Obama cannot possibly be that stupid.

I think your confidence about the health care ruling is misplaced. I don't think the Roberts court has been so deferential to precedent that you can think that it definitely goes Obama's way.

The actual unemployment number doesn't matter.

I think there are more conservative billionaires than liberal ones, but I think if there is to be balance in campaign spending it will be an artifact of media saturation rather than available money--you can only run so many ads.
 
ToxicAdam said:
All this gas price talk is pointless. By the time November rolls around the prices will be falling again (like they always do) and be an inconsequential concern when people go to vote.
Click to expand...

why bring history into this conversation?


anyway re: US/Europe vs China in rare earth minerals... aren't we supposed to have a pretty good supply off of our shores? Why don't we mine them?
 
The thing about Romney is that is incredible negatives aren't because he's been getting the stuffing beaten out of him through negative campaiging from his primary opponents - they've barely really landed a blow on him. People just don't like him and alot of that is from unforced errors that have nothing to do with primary season and will likely continue in the GE.
 
hydragonwarrior said:
Although Obama can try to educate the populace, the price of oil might be a very difficult thing for him to deal with. Who thinks this will affect his ability to be re-elected?



I agree. The fact that the Dems were overpowered by the Teaparty so easily means that it'll take more then a few gaffes to get a victory. No victory will be easy, come November.
Click to expand...

During midterms. Midterm elections always favor conservatives, and you can't extrapolate GE results from them.

On top of that, the tea party is a shadow of its former self, and it's momentum is basically gone. The "tea party" candidates in the republican race flamed out hard and early, leaving only the establishment (romney) to face obama in the general.
 
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/03/reid-dares-gop-filibuster-these-judicial-nominees-and-stall-the-jobs-act.php?ref=fpnewsfeed
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has a message for the Republicans: Filibuster over a dozen judicial nominees, as you’ve threatened to, and the country can watch for weeks as you hold up the bipartisan JOBS Act. I dare you.

Ever since President Obama used his recess appointment power to install the director of a powerful consumer protection agency, and members of the National Labor Relations Board, Senate Republicans have threatened to hold up all of his other pending nominees. Including judges.

Normally, there’s little a majority leader can do to thwart a determined minority bent on grinding the Senate to a halt. But Reid believes he’s found the leverage he needs.

Reid pulled procedural levers Monday to force action on 17 stalled, non-controversial judicial nominees to federal trial courts — just as the Senate was expected to take up the House-passed JOBS Act, a modest GOP-led bill to encourage economic growth by loosening regulations on small business capital formation.

That presents Republicans with a conundrum: proceed with the promised filibusters and eat up weeks of floor time while the JOBS Act sits in limbo; or accede to Reid’s demands and hand Democrats a win — and a bunch of federal judges.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) indicated in a floor speech Tuesday he has no intention of letting the nominees be confirmed and blamed Democrats for trying to gum up the works on the small business Jobs Act.

“Look: This is completely transparent, and it’s completely irresponsible,” he said.

“If the Democrat-controlled Senate turns to something contentious instead,” McConnell said, it’ll prove that they’re “not serious when they say they’re focused on jobs” and would “rather spend their time manufacturing gridlock.”

Reid is indeed holding the JOBS Act as leverage. But McConnell himself has acknowledged that these judicial nominees are non-controversial. Most cleared the Judiciary Committee unanimously. And Reid offered to proceed to the JOBS Act immediately — if McConnell agreed to drop the blanket filibuster. McConnell refused.

Senate Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-VT) used the occasion to demand that the GOP end its “damaging pattern of obstruction and filibusters.”

“It is time for Senate Republicans to do their part and not abuse their rights under our Senate rules and procedures,” Leahy said on the floor. “It is time for them to end the partisan stalling.”

All of this pits Reid and McConnell against each other in a battle of wills. If, in the end, Republicans decide to tie up the Senate floor for weeks with votes on these judges, it will touch off a public spin battle with Democrats over who, in reality, are responsible for holding up the JOBS Act. Alternatively, the leaders could resolve the standoff quietly behind closed doors, if the temperature gets too hot for both. That’s what your Congress is doing for you this week.
Click to expand...

###
 
Plinko said:
He actually does if gas prices keep rising. It's a huge problem and people incorrectly put that blame on the POTUS.
Click to expand...

The real problem is that the gas prices are inversely proportional to the unemployment rate and other factors that reflect the economy's health. Either the economy will be good or gas prices will be high. Pick your poison.
 
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