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PoliGAF 2013 |OT1| Never mind, Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

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About 200k jobs added to 2012 tallies, fellas. To go along with this last months' 150k performance.

100k over the last 2 months of the year and 100k the first 3 months based on the 400k revision from april 2011-march 2012.

Now we know what really happened in March. On Friday, the Labor Department issued its “benchmark revision” for the 12 months through March 2012. The new numbers are based on far more reliable — but slower to arrive — counts of the the number of workers for whom unemployment insurance premiums were paid. It turns out 205,000 jobs were added that month.

For all of 2012, we are now told that the average month added 181,000 jobs. A month ago, we were told the average for the year was only 153,000, basically the same as in 2011. With the revisions, we are told that the 2011 average was really 175,000.

At the end of last year, the official figures showed employment had risen 3.7 percent from the bottom in February 2010 to the end of 2012. Now that figure is 4.1 percent.


A year from now we will get benchmark revisions for the last nine months of 2012. It is quite possible the 2012 annual average will then rise further, to more than 200,000.

A couple of weeks ago, speaking in Hong Kong, Charles Evans, the president of the Chicago Fed, was asked about what would show things were getting better. He replied, according to Reuters, “One good indicator of labor market improvement would be if we saw payroll employment increase by 200,000 each month for a number of months. We’ve been averaging about 150,000, but it’s been very uneven.”

And this is why I told PD he was wrong about job reports. The reports don't matter, the reality matters. And in reality, the economy was adding jobs at a decent enough pace even if the jobs numbers lagged behind the real figures. edit: Silver predicted 150k as the benchmark for Obama reelection. Obama easily beat it.

And if next year's revisions show we averaged about 200k or more in all of 2012, that will show even to a greater extent why Obama won so easily and people started to feel better about the economy.


There are a lot of good indicators going on right now. Jobs market seems to be back to 200k (or maybe above that by a bit), housing is moving up as is new starts, consumer spending is up along with savings, wages and disposable income is increasing (though not a lot), and auto sales doing well.

People seemed to have balanced their personal budgets and are spending again. The Christmas season would have actually been decent if not for Sandy (the NE cratered).

And this is all the more reason why it is so fucking important that Congress at least delays the damn sequester for the rest of this year. We are turning the corner and only congress can slow it down with austerity,
 

Hop

That girl in the bunny hat
They probably had leftover money when the campaign ended. I don't see what's wrong with that. Do you think they should have done it as a political move during the campaign? I don't see why this is "LOL" worthy.

Didn't they run a rally after Sandy that was ostensibly a charity event for the Red Cross that the Red Cross didn't have anything to do with? Or something like that.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
Harry Reid's an idiot. I'm tired of Democrats thinking Republicans will actually work with them on anything. They burned all their bridges; fuck 'em all.
 

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
Somebody needs to do a "Filibusters since Harry Reid failed to reform it" blog and give updates to as many people and offices as possible.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
I'm not too pissed off at Reid, to be honest. Not cause this isn't a big deal - it is - but let's be real here. There's quite a few democrats in the senate (Joe Manchin, Claire McCaskill, lookin in your direction) who want to keep the filibuster in place just to provide them cover on certain pieces of legislation.
 
No I'm saying when you analyze Bush's numbers do you account for his first January (Jan 2001). Makes no sense to overlook Obama's first January
No, I wouldn't. Clinton was president for the majority of January 2001 so I would count that in his totals.

I'm not overlooking Obama's first January, I'm not counting it in his totals because he was president for 10 days in January while Bush was president for 20.
 
I'm not too pissed off at Reid, to be honest. Not cause this isn't a big deal - it is - but let's be real here. There's quite a few democrats in the senate (Joe Manchin, Claire McCaskill, lookin in your direction) who want to keep the filibuster in place just to provide them cover on certain pieces of legislation.

If it wasn't for those Democrats, the Democrats might not have a majority in the Senate (or a slim one).

Filibuster reform probably would've been regretted later, when the Republicans take back the Senate. (and yes I know it's not even serious reform, just making them talk etc)
 
If it wasn't for those Democrats, the Democrats might not have a majority in the Senate (or a slim one).

Filibuster reform probably would've been regretted later, when the Republicans take back the Senate. (and yes I know it's not even serious reform, just making them talk etc)
I'd be okay with republicans being able to take advantage of filibuster reform. They'd be the majority, why shouldn't they?
 
I'm not too pissed off at Reid, to be honest. Not cause this isn't a big deal - it is - but let's be real here. There's quite a few democrats in the senate (Joe Manchin, Claire McCaskill, lookin in your direction) who want to keep the filibuster in place just to provide them cover on certain pieces of legislation.
Blame doesn't fall on the conservative/liberal line here in Democratic circles. Jon Tester was for the talking filibuster. Carl Levin was against it. Those are some examples.

It's more newer senators vs. older senators.
If it wasn't for those Democrats, the Democrats might not have a majority in the Senate (or a slim one).

Filibuster reform probably would've been regretted later, when the Republicans take back the Senate. (and yes I know it's not even serious reform, just making them talk etc)

Elections are supposed to have consequences/benefits. There's no "regretting."
 

Loudninja

Member
Wall Street surges to five-year highs; Dow ends above 14,000
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rose to five-year highs on Friday, with the Dow closing above 14,000 for the first time since October 2007, after jobs and manufacturing data showed the economy's recovery remains on track.

The S&P touched its highest since December 2007 after a 5 percent gain in January, which was its best start to a year since 1997. The index is now just about 60 points away from its all-time intraday high of 1,576.09.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-posts-biggest-monthly-001324596.html
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
If it wasn't for those Democrats, the Democrats might not have a majority in the Senate (or a slim one).

Filibuster reform probably would've been regretted later, when the Republicans take back the Senate. (and yes I know it's not even serious reform, just making them talk etc)
What's the difference? They'll change it the second they're in power anyway.
 
I'd be okay with republicans being able to take advantage of filibuster reform. They'd be the majority, why shouldn't they?

I somehow think your opinion on this might change when they're actually in power and try to push through judicial nominees or legislation you don't like.

Elections are supposed to have consequences/benefits. There's no "regretting."

This makes no sense. If the Republicans managed to win majorities in both chambers and the Presidency and proceeded to push through legislation you didn't like - and the only thing that could have stopped them was a filibuster, you wouldn't regret changing the rules? (yes I know the filibuster would still be there)

Right now, the only purpose I see for reforming the filibuster would be solely for nominations. The Republicans still control the House. It's not like they're going to suddenly start passing legislation that Democrats will like (even more so if the filibuster is reformed).
 
Too many religious engineers who try to comment on science.
Yeah, I don't understand those types. At all. Engineers should be scientist types that wanted practical skills to get a job. But some seem to have figured out how to build stuff but still not understand the fundamental science behind the way things work.

"mostly"?
?
I'm both I'm just more Engineer in the way I think and what I do.
 
This makes no sense. If the Republicans managed to win majorities in both chambers and the Presidency and proceeded to push through legislation you didn't like - and the only thing that could have stopped them was a filibuster, you wouldn't regret changing the rules? (yes I know the filibuster would still be there)
If it's something as vital as, say, privatization of Social Security, I'd scream my head off, but regret changing the rules? No. This is a democracy. If Republicans win an election where they get a majority, they should implement their agenda because that's what the public elected them to do. Now, if the public doesn't like what they do they can hold rallies and call their senator/congressmen.

This makes perfect sense.
Reid absolutely must let the Senate actually recess. Obama is now in court fighting for two years of decisions beacause Reid agreed to stay in pro forma session so McConnell could filibuster. It's 100% Reid's fault and the only way he can make up for it now that he's fucked over Dems on the filibuster is to actually recess.

Eh? I thought the reason the Senate never recessed is because the House never let them recess.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Eh? I thought the reason the Senate never recessed is because the House never let them recess.

Reporting at the time led me to believe Reid was accomodating McConnell, who was blocking the motion to recess. Googling some other sources just now, it seems that was only part of the story: McConnell advised the House leadership on how to help him prevent Obama recess appointments, by having them enter pro forma sessions. Thanks for the proceedural correction.
Eh?
 
Reporting at the time led me to believe Reid was accomodating McConnell, who was blocking the motion to recess. Googling some other sources just now, it seems that was only part of the story: McConnell advised the House leadership on how to help him prevent Obama recess appointments, by having them enter pro forma sessions. Thanks for the proceedural correction.
Eh?

lol, I wouldn't have known either unless I read something about that court opinion to put an end to recess appointments. It's in the Constitution. Neither house can adjourn for more than three days without the approval of the other house.

"Eh" was just another way of me saying "huh?". Did that come off differently than I intended? Haha.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Ghal, is there a way to find only public sector job creation numbers on an annual basis?
 

Jooney

Member
Indeed. Way too damn many lawyers that don't know shit.

I'm mostly an engineer

Speculawyer is a writer, a doctor, a nuclear physicist and a theoretical philosopher. But above all, he is ... a man.

Philip-Seymour-Hoffman-The-Master-550x449.jpg

from 'The Master'
 

Jackson50

Member
I'm not too pissed off at Reid, to be honest. Not cause this isn't a big deal - it is - but let's be real here. There's quite a few democrats in the senate (Joe Manchin, Claire McCaskill, lookin in your direction) who want to keep the filibuster in place just to provide them cover on certain pieces of legislation.
Yeah. Reid receives inordinate blame for the failure of filibuster reform. The fault lies with certain members of the Democratic Caucus. If there were sufficient desire for reform, he would not defy his colleagues. Not that he is irreproachable. He is one of the more prominent senators seemingly bewitched with the damn thing.
 

bomma_man

Member
Indeed. Way too damn many lawyers that don't know shit.

I'm mostly an engineer
.

I read some article recently about how the new Egyptian government's STEM background was the reason why they had such a political tin ear.

I can't imagine what the rational was, beyond the all scientists are social incompetents stereotype.

I go to law school
 

Gotchaye

Member
Is it possible under the current law/system for a federal program within the government like SS to default independently? I don't really understand how it could happen in isolation.

Under current law, if scheduled benefits exceed SS tax revenues for long enough that the IOUs in the SS trust fund are depleted, benefits would be reduced. Congress would have to specifically take action to allow SS to spend more than SS tax revenues once the trust fund is gone.
 
Yeah, I don't understand those types. At all. Engineers should be scientist types that wanted practical skills to get a job. But some seem to have figured out how to build stuff but still not understand the fundamental science behind the way things work.


I'm both I'm just more Engineer in the way I think and what I do.
I switched from science to engineering recently and the difference is massive. Many more religious engineers.
 

RDreamer

Member
Oh my

RAPERT: I hear you loud and clear, Barack Obama. You don't represent the country that I grew up with. And your values is not going to save us. We're going to take this country back for the Lord. We're going to try to take this country back for conservatism. And we're not going to allow minorities to run roughshod over what you people believe in!
 
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