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PoliGAF 2013 |OT1| Never mind, Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

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Chichikov

Member
Whoa who said anything about a peace treaty? I was under the impressions you sere promoting a unilateral decision. Under the process of negotiations sure. Of course this is kind of moot since any solution involves some settlements staying (with land swap given).

Egypt lost 2 wars in Embarrassing fashion and they had to be bribed by the USA. Big difference where isrsel isn't capable of doing that now since there is no traditional war here or traditional government. And they got the Sinai back in thei negotiation. There was nothing left for then to go after, they wanted out of direct conflict for good. Nothing to gain.

A unilateral decision wouldn't lead to peace, though. And they can't threaten their state as a whole but they can do what they've done and ramp it up. They've essentially been in war since 2000 so that doesn't change.



I don't think unilaterally dismantling them changes anything for the positive and probably hurts. S not until other things happen first. Has to be part of a process. I also don't think expanding then does anything but hurt. I think there should be a freeze until its solved at this point but the longer this goes on the more Israelites will want to expand , unfortunately.
Dismantling of the settlements is something that Israel has to do, what does it mean to do it bilaterally?
And just so we're clear, I'm certainly not advocating a withdrawal without a peace treaty (like in Gaza) but you wouldn't need that.
All the Palestinian leaders in the West Bank are on the record saying they would sign a peace treaty tomorrow under those conditions.

Also, Egypt consider the '73 war a great victory, they have victory museums for that war.
I don't think anyone was a "winner" in that war, but if you're getting into the business of psychoanalyzing a nation, the common wisdom (and Sadat diaries) suggests that Egypt needed a moral victory before it was willing to make peace with Israel.
I don't need inside information. Palestinians aren't unique. It's how anyone would approach that situation coming from the same place. Wouldn't you assess your tactics as working and push for more? Bargaining is all about signaling strength, too.

I think the biggest problem people make is trying to assign blame to either side but reality is this is the situation that exists and it's more important to try to figure out what breaks the bad cycle. Or more importantly, what will establish trust?

Ever see a bitter divorce battle? It's a fitting analogy.
Most people that I know are satisfied when they get what they wanted.
And I really don't think many Palestinians are going to say "well, the last 60 years were shit, and we just fulfilled are century old national dream, but fuck it, let's get into another century of war with a vast superior enemy".

Or on the flip side, do you honestly think that they'll say "well, we still have the settlements in the middle of our country, but that means that the Israeli are super serious, let's make lasting peace with them".

I agree with this. Which is why I think the best move is a freeze. But the Israelis distrust the Palestinians so much that's not even politically viable anymore. We have to work back to that.
What does trust have to do with the freeze?
You act like building in the settlement is helping Israeli security.
The only goal of the settlements is to prevent a Palestinian state, that why there were created, there is literally nothing to gain by building them (outside an eventual one state solution).

Bargaining power, how does it work? You're taking too much of an invisible hand approach.
How does building in the settlements gives Israel bargaining power?
Because I can tell you how dismantling is going to give Israel bargaining power, by getting the world behind it.

It's not a win win. It would empower palestinian attacks. Until Israel can trust the Palestinians to play nice they can't dismantle. And they have no reason to trust them (and visa versa).
Why do you think that would happen?
You understand that you're making the case that the more Israel treat the Palestinian like assholes the less they'll attack them.
What kind of logic that is?
I don't know people who operates like that (and I know some Palestinians).
 

pigeon

Banned
I don't think unilaterally dismantling them changes anything for the positive and probably hurts. S not until other things happen first. Has to be part of a process. I also don't think expanding then does anything but hurt. I think there should be a freeze until its solved at this point but the longer this goes on the more Israelites will want to expand , unfortunately.

What other things, exactly?

There was a great TNR article about this topic recently by Ben Birnbaum.

tnr said:
Today, the essential conditions for a peace process remain. Majorities of Israelis and Palestinians continue to support a two-state solution. It remains possible to draw a border that would give the Palestinians the territorial equivalent of the entire West Bank, while allowing Israel to incorporate the vast majority of its settlers. So far, the number of settlers living in communities that would need to be evacuated has not passed the point of irreversibility. Jerusalem is still dividable. Hamas is confined to its Gaza fortress. And Abbas, a Palestinian leader like no other before and perhaps no other to come, remains in office. By the end of Barack Obama’s presidency, however, every one of these circumstances could vanish—and if that happens, the two-state solution will vanish along with them....

n December 2012, a month before the Israeli election, two of the country’s top pollsters surveyed popular opinion on the peace process. The polls produced near-identical results that, on their face, made no sense at all. On Election Day, Likud and other right-wing parties kept their Knesset majority, following a campaign in which Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that he would not evacuate any settlements. But in the survey, two-thirds of Israelis said they would support a peace deal creating a Palestinian state the size of the West Bank and Gaza, with a capital in East Jerusalem. The proposal was supported across the political spectrum—including by majorities of voters for Netanyahu’s Likud, the more hard-line Jewish Home Party, and the ultraorthodox Shas.

The great paradox of the current moment in Israeli politics is that, even as the right has consolidated its power, the people have drifted to the left when it comes to the concessions they would make for peace....

Meanwhile, the security establishment, which for decades saw a Palestinian state as a mortal threat, arrived at the same conclusion. Or, as former military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin put it to me, “Having a border is the best security arrangement.” Settling the conflict, the logic went, would give Israel greater international legitimacy to fight terrorism and enable it to deal with the more serious emerging threat from Iran.

Significantly, Yadlin favored making the necessary compromises for a deal while still maintaining there was no trustworthy partner on the Palestinian side. I asked him what the results would be if he and other current and former heads of major security agencies were polled on the peace question. Yadlin answered that, as long as there were adequate security provisions in place—such as a demilitarized Palestinian state, early-warning stations, Israeli control of the West Bank’s air space and electro-magnetic spectrum, and an effective international force in the Jordan Valley—his colleagues would support an agreement in “the same proportion” as the rest of the population: that is, by a solid majority. “Maybe more,” he said, “because they have served in the territories and they understand the fact that, if you want a Jewish and democratic state, you should not control 2.5 million Palestinians."

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/112617/israel-palestine-and-end-two-state-solution

It's worth reading.

My position on this remains the same -- from the American perspective, there should be no higher foreign policy priority than a two-state solution if we wish to protect Israel from its enemies. If now is the only time it's achievable, then now is when we should be fighting for it. I note that nobody posted about Netanyahu's new coalition! A Yesh Atid-Jewish Home coalition means a swing away from Palestine and towards domestic and theocratic issues -- and it also suggests a somewhat unstable government once those issues are taken care of. It might be time for a new approach to the Middle East before Obama leaves office.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
I laughed.

I still want to know the mechanism of the way she thinks Obamacare kills people I'm just totally lost. Of course, I haven't clicked on the videos because I fear that if I do that I will punch my screen and break it.

How can anyone take her seriously? All I can imagine is that she thinks Obama is the Kenyan Muslim baby-killer so if he is behind it then it must be evil.

I mean really . . . I understand when people complain and say "it will cost too much" or "I don't want my taxes going to those dirty poor people" . . . But "Obamacare will kill people"? Does she think the waiting rooms will be secret gas chambers?
I'm sure CNN would ask her if she wasn't running away from them while screaming about Benghazi.
 
. It might be time for a new approach to the Middle East before Obama leaves office.

I think the most underlooked aspect of Obama speech was his call for Israelis to push their politicians. There's very little the US can do. But by publicly saying the US has their back he's trying to quell their fears of doom hoping the people demand peace to preserve a Jewish and democratic state.
 
Dismantling of the settlements is something that Israel has to do, what does it mean to do it bilaterally?

Through agreement of a 2 state solution.


And just so we're clear, I'm certainly not advocating a withdrawal without a peace treaty (like in Gaza) but you wouldn't need that.

This seems to be in conflict with: "If Israel dismantled the settlement tomorrow there would be peace within a year."

One one hand you argue a peace treaty will come if Israel dismantles first, but now you are saying a peace treaty will include dismantling. I agree with the latter, not the former.

All the Palestinian leaders in the West Bank are on the record saying they would sign a peace treaty tomorrow under those conditions.

Whoa, no. Under those and other conditions.

Also, Egypt consider the '73 war a great victory, they have victory museums for that war.
I don't think anyone was a "winner" in that war, but if you're getting into the business of psychoanalyzing a nation, the common wisdom (and Sadat diaries) suggests that Egypt needed a moral victory before it was willing to make peace with Israel.

While there is truth to this, Egypt was still defeated, gained nothing back they sought for, and even had their army surrounded before the end (and allowed the Israeli's across the Suez). The '73 was wasn't so bad from a total standpoint, but the '67 war was a disaster an coupled together I stand by what I said.


Most people that I know are satisfied when they get what they wanted.

There is a difference between what people want and what people will settle for. Stopping the settlements isn't all they want.

And I really don't think many Palestinians are going to say "well, the last 60 years were shit, and we just fulfilled are century old national dream, but fuck it, let's get into another century of war with a vast superior enemy".

But ending the settlements does nothing for all the other issues. Contiguous state, airport, water and power, work permits & checkpoints, right of return, status of Jerusalem. When there is an actual solution worked out and agreed upon, then yes both sides will stop. But if the Israelis just made 1 concession tomorrow unilaterally and ended the settlements, it doesn't change everything else. And the Palestinians will fight, and probably much harder, for the other things once that happens.

The dismantling can only be part of an overall agreement (the expansions, however, can stop without that).

Or on the flip side, do you honestly think that they'll say "well, we still have the settlements in the middle of our country, but that means that the Israeli are super serious, let's make lasting peace with them".

The trust will be built from other things. The Israelis won't leave the settlements until there is an agreement (or at least getting close to one) and the Palestinian leadership understand this. They're not idiots. And they're not going to agree to anything that keep all the settlement (some with land swaps will happen, though).

What does trust have to do with the freeze?

I agree with you that expansion makes things worse. A freeze maintains the status quo, which as sad as it may sound, is better.

You act like building in the settlement is helping Israeli security.
The only goal of the settlements is to prevent a Palestinian state, that why there were created, there is literally nothing to gain by building them (outside an eventual one state solution).

How does building in the settlements gives Israel bargaining power?
Because I can tell you how dismantling is going to give Israel bargaining power, by getting the world behind it.


I don't think it helps their security. But the more they expand, the problems are this for the Palestinians.

A. More expansion = harder to uproot in the future = more dug in = harder to get concessions
B. More expansion = less of their own territory right now = more internal political pressure

Now this leads to more violence and more distrust and more complications but it also could make the palestinians start to really have their backs against the wall and maybe force the people demanding more leadership that is willing to negotiate now and start a better process up. It's a calculated move and maybe one that isn't correct. Impossible to really know until all is said and done. But the more Israel expands, the more it holds, the more bargaining power it has.

Getting the world behind Israel means dick, even if it were true (which I don't believe for a second). It most certainly doesn't help with bargaining power. Look at Iran. It takes actual action (like sanctions) to change anything. Unless you think Europe is going to actually sanction Palestinians for committing violence should Israel withdraw from the settlements (sorry, that's laughable).

Why do you think that would happen?
You understand that you're making the case that the more Israel treat the Palestinian like assholes the less they'll attack them.
What kind of logic that is?
I don't know people who operates like that (and I know some Palestinians).

No. The more Israel treats them like assholes the more they will attack (unless they hit a breaking point but again, I'm not saying this can happen). But if Israel makes a concession without nothing back from Palestine, it will only embolden them to attack more, too. It's a catch-22.

The only thing that can work is Israel giving something up and Palestinians returning the favor. And the big problem here is neither side trusts the other enough to take that step at the same time. A Prisoner's dilemma if you will. We need to get back to Oslo when both sides could get into the room and shake hands, give up something to one other to build upon trust. We're far from that point, again.

Like I said, everyone and their mother involved knows for the most part what the 2 state solution looks like. They basically already hashed it out years ago. It's really not much of an issue, anymore. The problem is how to get to two sides back to the stage where they accept that and to do that they have to trust one another. And as time goes on, this gets harder and harder. We need strong leadership in the US (if Obama could have been it he is way too concerned with what is going on here and fairly so) and Bibi isn't that guy in Israel for sure. I think a door might open with a Clinton presidency.

Another analogy is sort of the Germans and Greeks. A lot of the German austerity on the Greeks is because they distrust Greek people and this makes the Greeks hate the Germans.
 
I think the most underlooked aspect of Obama speech was his call for Israelis to push their politicians. There's very little the US can do. But by publicly saying the US has their back he's trying to quell their fears of doom hoping the people demand peace to preserve a Jewish and democratic state.

Who knows. Something could happen. No one expected Sharon to pull out of Gaza.

It sucks that Rabin was shot. I had just visited Israel when that happened. I think he could have done something. The always kill the peace-makers. Fuckers.


A very interesting film on this is The Gatekeepers:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gatekeepers_(film)

It interviews all of the former heads of the Israeli Shin Bet security service. And every single one of them says that Israel needs to do a peace agreement. They realize that no matter how many successful operations they have, the only way this ends is with a negotiated agreement.
 
What other things, exactly?

Shaking hands in official diplomacy (after a lot of backdoor diplomacy of course), mapping out a plan similar to Oslo, building a basis of trust which would lead to Palestinians working easily in Israel proper once again, then leading to both sides making smaller concessions (for instance easy access between the WB and Gaza to start and reduced violence from the other side). I'd like Israel to commit itself to seriously helping build up their infrastructure (USA and Europe should kick in a lot of cash to make this happen too). And you build up from there and then when it's really moving well you can come to the final agreement which will deal with those settlements completely.

The settlements, realistically, is part of the end game, not the beginning.

I agree with the article you posted. I think there might be a misunderstanding of my position. I'm not arguing the settlements shouldn't be ceased and partially uprooted with a 2 state solution. I am merely saying it is part of the process and we're no where near the part where the Israelis can do that.

This quote from your article sums up what I'm saying: "Significantly, Yadlin favored making the necessary compromises for a deal while still maintaining there was no trustworthy partner on the Palestinian side"

Neither side trusts the other. This is the fundamental issue of the conflict right now. Everything else is largely settled.

My position on this remains the same -- from the American perspective, there should be no higher foreign policy priority than a two-state solution if we wish to protect Israel from its enemies. If now is the only time it's achievable, then now is when we should be fighting for it. I note that nobody posted about Netanyahu's new coalition! A Yesh Atid-Jewish Home coalition means a swing away from Palestine and towards domestic and theocratic issues -- and it also suggests a somewhat unstable government once those issues are taken care of. It might be time for a new approach to the Middle East before Obama leaves office.

I agree, though I think we're a couple years away from that door opening. Just send Billy boy out there and don't let him home til it's done. It's seriously the one actually great thing he did while in Office.

It sucks that Rabin was shot. I had just visited Israel when that happened. I think he could have done something. The always kill the peace-makers. Fuckers.

Barak was willing to take a deal that at the time was nowhere near as popular as would be today.

It interviews all of the former heads of the Israeli Shin Bet security service. And every single one of them says that Israel needs to do a peace agreement. They realize that no matter how many successful operations they have, the only way this ends is with a negotiated agreement.

Yup. Which is why the claims that Israel doesn't want peace or that it's not in their strategic interests is very weird to me. Nothing is better than peace and a settled solution and defined borders. What will Syria have to rally on? They'd have to internalize their politics. Israel has been a dog-whistle for the other countries for 60 years and that would go away in an instant. It would probably lead to a big change in the region over a generation and for the better!
 
Who knows. Something could happen. No one expected Sharon to pull out of Gaza.

It sucks that Rabin was shot. I had just visited Israel when that happened. I think he could have done something. The always kill the peace-makers. Fuckers.


A very interesting film on this is The Gatekeepers:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gatekeepers_(film)

It interviews all of the former heads of the Israeli Shin Bet security service. And every single one of them says that Israel needs to do a peace agreement. They realize that no matter how many successful operations they have, the only way this ends is with a negotiated agreement.
Rabin is one of my heroes. One of the best quotes from him is this and its rings true as today Obama is going to Mt. Herzl
"Military cemeteries in every corner of the world are silent testimony to the failure of national leaders to sanctify human life."

I REALLY want to see that movie but its not playing anywhere near me :(
 
450+EVs confirmed? I think so.
Not quite but

clintonvswhoever_zps9fe6ba4d.png


man, it feels good to post one of those again.
 
I'm just trying to think of states Bams won that Hillary would lose... nevermind those that she could pick up (NC for one)
Feels like the Obama coalition is the base Democratic blueprint now, minus Virginia, Ohio, and Florida (which I'd still say are toss-up states, in that order of Lean D to pure Tossup). Luckily that still produces an EV win of 272. The next closest states in 2012 were Colorado and Pennsylvania and Obama won both states by more than 5% of the vote, giving them each a Democratic lean of D+2 or so.

Obama's second term would need to be catastrophically bad for Democrats to lose in 2016, imo.

Georgia and Arizona are on their way to becoming toss-up states. Georgia was the closest state Romney won behind North Carolina, and OFA didn't do shit there. It was closer than Michigan which the media desperately tried to portray as being a tossup state.

TacticalFox88 said:
If Dems make Hispanics as loyal to them as Blacks are AND make Texas a purple state, the Republican Party is pretty much done for, permanently.

It'll be a glorious day if it happens.
I'd never make such a bold statement just because who knows what'll happen. However the Republicans are increasingly becoming a regional party at the national level. It's not just the presidential election either, look at the Senate races - they managed to hold onto the House through aggressive gerrymandering, but you can't gerrymander a state.
 
Feels like the Obama coalition is the base Democratic blueprint now, minus Virginia, Ohio, and Florida (which I'd still say are toss-up states, in that order of Lean D to pure Tossup). Luckily that still produces an EV win of 272. The next closest states in 2012 were Colorado and Pennsylvania and Obama won both states by more than 5% of the vote, giving them each a Democratic lean of D+2 or so.

Obama's second term would need to be catastrophically bad for Democrats to lose in 2016, imo.

The Only way Dems lose in 2016 is if one or two things happen:

1)The Economy gets worse (unlikely, but certainly possible)

2) Obama invades Iran like Bush did Iraq (Highly improbable.)
 
The Only way Dems lose in 2016 is if one or two things happen:

1)The Economy gets worse (unlikely, but certainly possible)

2) Obama invades Iran like Bush did Iraq (Highly improbable.)
1 doesn't seem very likely. 2 would only be a problem if Obama went in there with shady motives and without the backing of the world/US public opinion. Remember that Bush invading Iraq was first seen as a good thing in the US, it wasn't until later when we realized it was such a clusterfuck.

Hillary's ceiling would be Obama's 2012 map plus AR, NC, and W VA; no democrat is winning Texas in 2016.
Wanna bet? I think Hillary could take Texas.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Just got home and put on the Ed Show (thankfully Michael Eric Dyson was hosting), and he played an old clip of Jon Kyl saying he was against maternity leave cause he never needed it. When some female democrat senator pointed out that him mom did, he then said "that was 60 years ago".

LOL WAT?

God, please let Hillary run. It would be a curbstomp.

On top of which, if Democrats have a decent 2014 (i.e. lose no more than 1 or 2 senate seats, maybe pick up a few House seats) a supermajority in 2016 isn't too hard to imagine. HRC winning by those margins would undoubtedly have some sort of downballot effect.

450+EVs confirmed? I think so.

Not necessarily. Those are great numbers, but let's keep things in perspective. We're four years away from the election, a lot can happen during that time to hurt Hillary. Furthermore, once the Republican candidate is finally decided, all the righties will hold their noses and fall in line. Remember, everybody hated Romney, but even he still wound up getting more votes than McCain.
 
Not necessarily. Those are great numbers, but let's keep things in perspective. We're four years away from the election, a lot can happen during that time to hurt Hillary. Furthermore, once the Republican candidate is finally decided, all the righties will hold their noses and fall in line. Remember, everybody hated Romney, but even he still wound up getting more votes than McCain.
Those people weren't going to be voting for Hillary anyhow (well except for a few racists here and there, but not much). Those people came out in droves to drive out Obama....and Romney STILL got wtf-stomped.

Hillary is going to lay down a smackdown.
 
The Only way Dems lose in 2016 is if one or two things happen:

1)The Economy gets worse (unlikely, but certainly possible)

2) Obama invades Iran like Bush did Iraq (Highly improbable.)
I think you guys should take a look at the last few two term presidents. Major scandals ruin administrations and lead to party fatigue among voters. This administration has avoided major scandals for 5 years but the law of averages suggests that will end. And give how shitty this WH treats the press plus their inabilty to handle immediate crises (oil spill, health care town halls, sequestration, etc) it could be ugly.

So far this second term has struck me as quite aimless, lurching from one big idea to another without actually doing anything. The National Review has a story up about the WH not having any aides in regular contact with either side of the aisle right now. I have no idea what's going on, and Obama's numbers are sinking.

And there are plenty of things that could hurt the economy, like a war with Iran or North Korea. Of course Hillary will be a great candidate but the board could be set against her depending on how things go.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
I was wondering how long it would take PD to come up with another of his famous worst-case-scenario theories.
 

Diablos

Member
Wow, Bams' approval really is dropping.

smh

I agree that it is premature to say Hillary is taking Texas. NC maybe. Texas no.

First of all who knows if she will even run? Secondly a lot could happen. I am fully prepared for the GOP to do everything they can to instigate another economic collapse that will benefit the GOP in 2016 to get enough people back on their side.
 

gcubed

Member
i REALLY hope she runs. Mainly i want to see the freakout Benghazi commercials that will be run ever 30 seconds. It will be glorious
 
I agree, though I think we're a couple years away from that door opening. Just send Billy boy out there and don't let him home til it's done. It's seriously the one actually great thing he did while in Office.

I completely disagree. Bill Clinton had a very mixed legacy over Israeli-Palestinian peace. He essentially let Israel run the peace process and he was unwilling to pressure Israel at all. This was okay during the Rabin years, but once Barak came to power Barak used Clinton as a toy. And then there's also Clinton's dick move of blaming Arafat after Camp David 2 when he had specifically promised Arafat to not do so. Bush senior would've gotten shit done had he still been president.
 
PHOENIXPAUSE?

WTF?

Am I dreaming?
Lmao it's from the hip hop thread

But yea, I haven't seen any folks who focus on the Hispanic vote say that it can go blue in 2016. The state democrat party is pretty weak and hasn't won a state-wide election in a long time. I know the groundwork is being laid but someone like Castro needs to win a senate or governor seat before I can believe it's even a purple state.
 

Chichikov

Member
Through agreement of a 2 state solution.
The settlements physically prevent that.
Removing the settlements will make the process infinitely easier, and everybody knows you'll remove most or all of them in the end, you literally gain nothing by having so many people invested in the failure of the peace process in the middle of Palestinian population.
And fuck, Israel could use some trust building measures with the Palestinians, because Israel signed numerous treaty regarding the West Bank (Camp David, Oslo, Israeli Jordan peace treaty) and yet somehow settlements only grow in number, there is a lot to be gain by Israel showing that it's willing to stand to its crazy fucks in the West Bank (that apply also to Israel itself, I think there's an irrational fear that civil war will start if they try to dismantle settlements, and I think it's completely unfounded).

This seems to be in conflict with: "If Israel dismantled the settlement tomorrow there would be peace within a year."

One one hand you argue a peace treaty will come if Israel dismantles first, but now you are saying a peace treaty will include dismantling. I agree with the latter, not the former.
You really going to lawyer my words like this?
You honestly don't understand what I was trying to say there?

Once again, I argue that the settlements are the biggest obstacle for peace, and that all other problems are very solvable.

Whoa, no. Under those and other conditions.
No, just no.
In fact, they are willing to settle for much less.

While there is truth to this, Egypt was still defeated, gained nothing back they sought for, and even had their army surrounded before the end (and allowed the Israeli's across the Suez). The '73 was wasn't so bad from a total standpoint, but the '67 war was a disaster an coupled together I stand by what I said.
The '73 war was so pointless that I don't think you can say anyone won there (though if you go by death toll than yes, Israel 'won' handily), but if we're talking about public humiliation then I don't think you can make the case for it.
I mean damn, Sadat was assassinated during a celebration for that war.
Or to look at the other side, Israel don't celebrate the '73 war, they celebrated the shit out of '67 with victory rallies, songs and commemorative coffee table books, after '73 they sacked pretty much all their political and military leaders and eventually returned the Sinai (something they were unwilling to do before).

There is a difference between what people want and what people will settle for. Stopping the settlements isn't all they want.
Most of the Palestinians I know would be beyond ecstatic for a Palestinian state in '67 borders without any settlements. Seriously, what are you basing those assertions?

But ending the settlements does nothing for all the other issues. Contiguous state, airport, water and power, work permits & checkpoints, right of return, status of Jerusalem. When there is an actual solution worked out and agreed upon, then yes both sides will stop. But if the Israelis just made 1 concession tomorrow unilaterally and ended the settlements, it doesn't change everything else. And the Palestinians will fight, and probably much harder, for the other things once that happens.

The dismantling can only be part of an overall agreement (the expansions, however, can stop without that).
It's like campaign finance in this country, fixing it won't solve everything, but nothing will get fixed before you resolve that issue.
And again, why can't Israel just dismantle the settlements?
What purpose do they serve outside blocking the two state solution?
Israel is going to save billion of dollars too.

The trust will be built from other things. The Israelis won't leave the settlements until there is an agreement (or at least getting close to one) and the Palestinian leadership understand this. They're not idiots. And they're not going to agree to anything that keep all the settlement (some with land swaps will happen, though).
You don't get to tell to other people what will build trust in them.
You have no fucking idea what the settlers are doing in the west bank or how they are (rightfully) perceived, and I'm telling you (yeah sorry, gonna move to 'telling' here, everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I actually spent many years in that part of the world, so I think at least when it comes to what people want, my opinion have a bit more weight) nothing will gain Palestinian trust than dismantling of settlements.
You also must remember that there is a big political struggle in Palestine between those who want armed violent resistance and those who want non-violent one.
Nothing will bolster the non-violent crowd like a dismantling of settlements (but Israel of course does the exact opposite, they concede to Hamas after rocket attacks and humiliate the secular leaders in the West Bank).

No. The more Israel treats them like assholes the more they will attack (unless they hit a breaking point but again, I'm not saying this can happen). But if Israel makes a concession without nothing back from Palestine, it will only embolden them to attack more, too. It's a catch-22.

The only thing that can work is Israel giving something up and Palestinians returning the favor. And the big problem here is neither side trusts the other enough to take that step at the same time. A Prisoner's dilemma if you will. We need to get back to Oslo when both sides could get into the room and shake hands, give up something to one other to build upon trust. We're far from that point, again.

Like I said, everyone and their mother involved knows for the most part what the 2 state solution looks like. They basically already hashed it out years ago. It's really not much of an issue, anymore. The problem is how to get to two sides back to the stage where they accept that and to do that they have to trust one another. And as time goes on, this gets harder and harder. We need strong leadership in the US (if Obama could have been it he is way too concerned with what is going on here and fairly so) and Bibi isn't that guy in Israel for sure. I think a door might open with a Clinton presidency.
You keep acting like it's in Israel interest to keep the settlement and they're giving something up by dismantling it.
I do not accept that on any level.

And it's true that everyone knows what a 2 state solution will look like, it will be largely based on the '67 borders, and I don't know how familiar you are with the West Bank, but you can't have that without massive dismantling of settlements, and Israel had never ever shown willingness to do that (even though they promise many times, and yes, that includes Rabin's government).
The Palestinians don't believe Israel, they think they use the peace process only to get some quiet while they further expand the settlements, and honestly, it's hard to blame them.
 
Florida it beyond purple at this point.
Eh. If dems didn't have a candidate urban voters were willing to stand in long lines for, Romney would have won. The long lines led to about 200k people leaving polling stations; Obama won by what, 100,000 votes?

Given the red makeup of the state's government I wouldn't call it purple. Obviously whoever runs against Scott will win but will dems retake the parts of the state they lost in 2010?
 

pigeon

Banned
http://www.senate.gov/legislative/L...fm?congress=113&session=1&vote=00048#position

senate.gov said:
S.Amdt. 432 to S.Con.Res. 8 (the budget resolution)

To establish a deficit-neutral reserve fund to protect Medicare's guaranteed benefits and to prohibit replacing guaranteed benefits with the House passed budget plan to turn Medicare into a voucher program.

Vote Counts: YEAs 96 NAYs 3 Not Voting 1

NAYs ---3
Cruz (R-TX)
Lee (R-UT)
Paul (R-KY)
Not Voting - 1
Lautenberg (D-NJ)

The Ryan plan doesn't have a lot of support in the Senate, apparently.

Also, what, is Lautenberg sick? I see why Booker is taking him on.
 

gcubed

Member
Eh. If dems didn't have a candidate urban voters were willing to stand in long lines for, Romney would have won. The long lines led to about 200k people leaving polling stations; Obama won by what, 100,000 votes?

Given the red makeup of the state's government I wouldn't call it purple. Obviously whoever runs against Scott will win but will dems retake the parts of the state they lost in 2010?

I was speaking nationally. There are quite a few places that are Purple/Blue nationally but Red locally.

Sure if you run a shit candidate, you wouldn't win it. Its still "Swing" but in a lower echelon of swing states. If Hillary runs i doubt she would pay anywhere near as much attention to it as Obama did. If Hillary runs i think her focus states shift significantly, which is why she could possibly flip a red state.
 

pigeon

Banned
what was the purpose of the bill? It looks like it should be renamed the "FU House GOP" bill. Which garnered incredible bipartisan support

Your analysis is basically correct. It's an amendment to prohibit the Ryan plan for vouchering Medicare from ever becoming law. Obviously in practice it doesn't have that much power since if they ever pass the Ryan plan it will just supersede it. But it is a little surprising that the entire GOP caucus would be willing to publically say "fuck the Ryan plan."
 

gcubed

Member
Your analysis is basically correct. It's an amendment to prohibit the Ryan plan for vouchering Medicare from ever becoming law. Obviously in practice it doesn't have that much power since if they ever pass the Ryan plan it will just supersede it. But it is a little surprising that the entire GOP caucus would be willing to publically say "fuck the Ryan plan."

yeah, it has no real world use other than to smack the house GOP down. Its interesting... i wonder if any "serious people" will pick it up in the news. They love bipartisanship
 
If Israel dismantled the settlements tomorrow as a show of goodwill, it would probably set back the peace process. Did you notice what happened when they did do this in Gaza? That's not to say that increasing the settlements also doesn't set back the process. There's very little action either side could do right now that wouldn't. The claim that Israel clearly doesn't want peace because of the settlements isn't accurate. That is their reaction, rightly or wrongly, based on their perception of the situation and not a direct undermining of a desire for peace (granted there are some extremists that do).
Please, do explain what happened after they dismantled the gaza settlements, but put an economic and geographic stranglehold on 1.2 million Muslim population in total poverty? What about complete and total restrictions implemented in every facet of civilian life, from import export to fishing zones to even restricting paramedics. Also tell us about the acceleration of settlement building in West Bank soon after Gaza disengagement?
The Disengagement Plan was also criticized by both Israelis and other observers from the opposite viewpoint as an attempt to make permanent the different settlements of the West Bank, while the Gaza strip was rendered to the Palestinian National Authority as an economically uninteresting territory with a Muslim population of nearly 1.4 million, seen as a "threat" to the Jewish identity of the Israeli democratic state. As Leila Shahid, speaker of the PNA in Europe declared, the sole fact of carrying out the plan unilaterally already showed that the plan was only thought of according to the objectives of Israel as viewed by Sharon. Brian Cowen, Irish Foreign Minister and speaker of the European Union (EU), announced the EU's disapproval of the plan's limited scope in that it did not address withdrawal from the entire West Bank. He said that the EU "will not recognize any change to the pre-1967 borders other than those arrived at by agreement between the parties." However, Europe has given tentative backing to the Disengagement plan as part of the road map for peace. In the same time that Sharon was preparing the withdrawal, pointed out critics, he was favoring settlements in the West Bank, among them Ma'ale Adumim, the largest Israeli settlement near Jerusalem. According to Peace Now, the number of settlers increased by 6,100 compared with 2004, to reach 250,000 in the West Bank.
Israel simply shifted the settlements from Gaza to West Bank. That's it. Good thing you brought up the Gaza disengagement plan. Here's your smoking gun on Israeli government's position on peace.
In an October 6, 2004, interview with Haaretz, Dov Weissglass, Sharon's chief of staff, declared: "The significance of the disengagement plan is the freezing of the peace process.... When you freeze that process, you prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state and you prevent a discussion on the refugees, the borders and Jerusalem. Disengagement supplies the amount of formaldehyde that is necessary so there will not be a political process with the Palestinians"
There you have it.
FWIW, Hamas doesn't really support that AFAIK. They load up their claim to make it realistically untenable. But they've moved a bit, at least, so there is some progress on that front.
So..what Hamas is saying is automatically false because...?
 
Fuck talking about 2016. It is too far off and there are too many current issues to discuss.

And so what if Hillary won? She'll just have 4 years of nothing getting done as long as the GOP holds the house and sticks to the current policies.
 
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