NYCmetsfan
Banned
Lol I was about to do the same. Was talking to my parents about it last night.
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PoliGAF 2013 |OT1| Never mind, Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
- Thread starter ClovingWestbrook
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Lol I was about to do the same. Was talking to my parents about it last night.
PhoenixDark
Banned
How many black people are going to show up in an off-year election to vote for Kagan? She's done.
soul creator
Member
TacticalFox88
Banned
Stewart you are amazing.
RustyNails
Member
Yea that Kay Hagan thing, while commendable, will most likely cost her the election. People have no idea how strongly the anti-gay marriage people feel about the issue. It is an absolute poll mover. It makes these people get up their fat lazy asses and go cast a vote against the evil liberals gaying their country everywhere. I know people like these.
zero shift
Banned
Its sad too. Walker has been bad for Wisconsin. The schools are horrendously underfunded and understaff. As someone who works at UW-Parkside its insane how much so little people have to do and how their pay has been frozen. Construction projects never get done. I-94 has been in construction for 2 years with not as much progress as one would hope. My mind was blown when driving to work two weeks ago and saw that traffic has gotten even TIGHTER. Business has gotten notably worse under his adminsitration despite economic growth. It could be hearsay but in all the jobs I worked at there was a notable dip not long after Walker came into power. I worked at a nightclub that went from always being packed, to having to close early some days because hardly anyone showed up. A restaurant that was always busy to sending staff home early on a Friday night. Obviously not all of this is due to Walker. But as I started seeing charts of GDP growth and unemployment decline in the country it seems that Wisconsin has remained stagnant at where it was in 2010, if not worse.
If the homeless man would pick himself up by his bootstraps he could easily get his own job and buy food for himself? Mental illness? The only "mental illness" he has is one that involves denying hardwork, the free market, and freedom!
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Holy shit, I need to watch this episode
Stewart you are amazing.
Aaron Strife
Banned
A lot, probably. NC and GA had record turnout from minorities in 2010 for a midterm.
North Carolina's democratic base is made up of old FDR types and imports from out of state living in either Charlotte or Raleigh.
Black Republican
Member
Link
The Autumn Wind
speculawyer
Member
Well if that is the way people are going to vote then they deserve a fucked up government.
Aaron Strife
Banned
ha. dems will lose 2 seats at most.
you can hold me to that in 2 years
e: just to clarify - net loss of 2 seats. i think georgia is winnable with the right candidate on both sides.
PhoenixDark
Banned
This won't just be a base election though. NC's unemployment rate is still near 10%, the sequester will probably make things worse too. I don't think it's far fetched to suggest that as long as a right wing ideologue (Virginia Foxx) doesn't get the nomination, NC is one of the best pickup possibilities.
Kagan is above 50% right now against the best potential GOP candidate (Lt. Gov. Dan Forest), and in general the NC GOP is souring among voters in the state. The problem is that turnout benefit republicans and a shitty economy hurts incumbents with independents. And NC just passed a constitutional ban of gay marriage whereas Kagan has come out for gay marriage. So yea, right now I think she's done. Obama won't be on the ballot this time.
EDIT: I agree dems should keep their Alaska seat
Aaron Strife
Banned
Of all the reasons for Hagan could lose (and she isn't a lock, I'll admit), this is the most inconsequential. Obama came out for gay marriage in North Carolina and only lost it by 2 points, in an election where he lost at least 2 points in pretty much every swing state. If you want to argue that blacks won't turn out because Obama's not on the ballot, black turnout increased in North Carolina in 2010 by 40% over 2006. Obama knows how to mobilize the troops even when he's not on the ballot - that election was just a hurricane of bad news for Democrats which caused them to lose whites and independents. The climate could be much better in 2014.
If she's in the 49-52 range as PPP is showing right now, she's probably okay. Gay marriage isn't going to cost her a 10 point lead
Avon Barksdale
Member
Ashley Judd will not run for Kentucky Senate.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Hope this paves the way for a Alison Lundergan Grimes run. She just got a military voting bill passed in the KY legislature, a nice feather in her cap. She'd probably be the best candidate against McConnell.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Agreed, if Hagan loses it wasn't her support for same-sex marriage that did her in. I don't think that gay marriage is big enough that it causes people to be one-issue voters - it's not abortion. If gay marriage is a big enough issue for some people to switch their votes, I'm willing to bet they were already pretty solidified against Hagan for other reasons like she was already a godless liberal(or if they vote for her, because she is more progressive on gay rights than her opponents)
Looking forward to 2014 because I anticipate a lot of campaign weekends going down to North Carolina from DC. Can't wait, because 2013 is incredibly boring since Christie is safe and I don't care for either of the candidates in Virginia (though obviously I prefer McAuliffe). Maybe MO-8 too for a couple of months since the Democrat there is solid IMO
PhoenixDark
Banned
Good riddance Judd
She doesn't have a ten point lead. And while the black vote increased in 2010 I don't think that was surprising, especially when compared to the low 2006 levels. It'll still be quite low, perhaps lower if NC's economy continues to be poor.
I think the general democrat climate will be better in 2014 than 2010 simply because the economy will be better, but there are states where that isn't the case. NC, Nevada, and a few others come to mind.
She doesn't have a ten point lead. And while the black vote increased in 2010 I don't think that was surprising, especially when compared to the low 2006 levels. It'll still be quite low, perhaps lower if NC's economy continues to be poor.
I think the general democrat climate will be better in 2014 than 2010 simply because the economy will be better, but there are states where that isn't the case. NC, Nevada, and a few others come to mind.
The Librarian
Banned
Just like you thought Warren wouldn't win? We've seen this dance before.
PD, please stop talking like you have intimate knowledge of what's going on in NC.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
So people don't notice that Clarence Thomas is sleeping through the entire case
The only possible reason is that one of them is a vampire and doesn't want to get caught.
The robes are drawn on by the artist as a courtesy. Justices are actually nude the entire time.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
I imagine that the idea is that there's a balance to be struck between making the Court accessible and transparent and keeping it as apolitical as possible. They don't want oral arguments to be entertainment; you're not supposed to be cheering for the justices that are "on your side", because the justices aren't supposed to be on anyone's side. I expect there's also a concern that the justices and/or lawyers will mug for the cameras in a way that's harmful to the long-term legitimacy of the Court.
Black Republican
Member
Good. Dems actually have a chance winning that seat.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yes she does.
Unless you're choosing to believe the polls are skewed. How'd that work out last time?
Mrs. Manky
Banned
He hasn't said /anything/ yet, has he?
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I believe he said one word, and it was referring to a joke of some kind.
I wanted to make sure people who are strangers to the Supreme Court understand that Plinko doesn't mean that Thomas said one thing during this case, but rather that Thomas has said one thing in the PAST SEVEN YEARS.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Not pretending. I'm looking at the UE number and demographics. Kagan can win but right now I seriously doubt it. Unless Virginia Foxx saves us all.
He never does. That half-heard joke a while back was literally the only thing he's said in court in, like, decades.
Imagine how creepy it would be if the other 8 justices followed his lead.
Avon Barksdale
Member
What does Hagan have to do with the UE number?
I haven't watched Law and Order: SVU in a while, but tonight's episode should be gud.
I guess I could see that. Though even if that's the case I want to see vids, damn it!
I guess I could see that. Though even if that's the case I want to see vids, damn it!
Bill Nelson sucks.
The guy is the definition of a safe politician who will not put his back out for anything. You can see in his response to the gay marriage question how carefully crafted it is, especially saying the Supreme Court might be changing it soon.
It sucks that FL is stuck with this guy while frigging Alaska, NC and MO can get better liberals.
The guy is the definition of a safe politician who will not put his back out for anything. You can see in his response to the gay marriage question how carefully crafted it is, especially saying the Supreme Court might be changing it soon.
It sucks that FL is stuck with this guy while frigging Alaska, NC and MO can get better liberals.
The Librarian
Banned
Uh huh. Sure, PD.
speculawyer
Member
Well, she did get the opposition to waste some money campaigning against her.
Link
The Autumn Wind
While his refusal to publicly support same sex marriage is disappointing and I even emailed him telling him so, I would not call us "stuck" with him. He's been a great senator. His voting record speaks for itself.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Karl Rove will claim this was all due to him.
How will we know who he is? Well aside from his fervent concern trolling that is.
So...probably old to this thread but this made me angry.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...upreme-court-defense-of-marriage-act/2025017/
Did the Chief Justice of the United States really say Obama should have "strength of his convictions" to ignore laws he doesnt like?
What a fucking fool. Another clown appointment by Bush we have to deal with.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...upreme-court-defense-of-marriage-act/2025017/
Did the Chief Justice of the United States really say Obama should have "strength of his convictions" to ignore laws he doesnt like?
What a fucking fool. Another clown appointment by Bush we have to deal with.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Was searching for a documentary when I stumbled across this collection of McGovern ads from 1972
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bziFkFXrmeM
The first ad, which last about 4m, is the sound of a political party admitting its mistakes and trying to fix things. 1968 was a disaster, from the convention fiasco to RFK being killed. Four years later the party was leaderless and reeling from scandal and assassinations. That entire ad/infomercial boils down to the party saying "hey look, we had an orderly convention with no violence, we're professional! And the people chose our nominee this time, isn't that great? Let's work together."
There still hasn't been a moment like that with republicans; this GOP autopsy is largely window dressing. While I agree changing their messaging is essential and can lead to a production transition period on issues like gay rights and abortion, ultimately the problem is their policy positions. McGovern was quite a radical shift from LBJ on foreign policy, for instance. Domestically the party didn't really make the proper changes until Clinton in 1988/1992, but they were clearly in an evolution process. Right now I see no such thing for republicans.
2016 will be more of the same. Tax cuts, cut entitlements (don't cut Medicare*), Reagan, regulations, drill baby drill. Good luck with that.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bziFkFXrmeM
The first ad, which last about 4m, is the sound of a political party admitting its mistakes and trying to fix things. 1968 was a disaster, from the convention fiasco to RFK being killed. Four years later the party was leaderless and reeling from scandal and assassinations. That entire ad/infomercial boils down to the party saying "hey look, we had an orderly convention with no violence, we're professional! And the people chose our nominee this time, isn't that great? Let's work together."
There still hasn't been a moment like that with republicans; this GOP autopsy is largely window dressing. While I agree changing their messaging is essential and can lead to a production transition period on issues like gay rights and abortion, ultimately the problem is their policy positions. McGovern was quite a radical shift from LBJ on foreign policy, for instance. Domestically the party didn't really make the proper changes until Clinton in 1988/1992, but they were clearly in an evolution process. Right now I see no such thing for republicans.
2016 will be more of the same. Tax cuts, cut entitlements (don't cut Medicare*), Reagan, regulations, drill baby drill. Good luck with that.
Aaron Strife
Banned
GOP needs to give up on trying to invoke Reagan. By 2016 only about half of the electorate is actually going to remember him.
This isn't necessarily a downside because it's the myth of Reagan that they want.
Metaphoreus
This is semantics, and nothing more
I think he's right, but only to the extent that he was asking about a law that the president believes to be unconstitutional. If the president merely doesn't like a law, then that's no reason not to enforce it, but if the president actually believes that a law violates the Constitution, then the logical consequence of that belief is a refusal to enforce it--because the legal consequence is that such a law is no law at all.
So Obama should decide to do the Supreme Courts job when he thinks its appropriate?
I aint no constitutional scholar but that sounds pretty fucked up to me.
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