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PoliGAF 2013 |OT1| Never mind, Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

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And how come we never talk about the Pentagon going bankrupt? If social security can go bankrupt then the Pentagon can go bankrupt too.

It's too confusing for the avg Joe. I talked earlier about how the US handles itself. There's little rhyme or reason to current law. And we disagree about the policy implications. The way Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) is funded relative to SS and other parts of Medicare doesn't make any sense. The "problems" i.e. health care and aging for the two biggest federal endeavors are indistinguishable from SMI. Yet, SMI is financed automatically by law despite that. In addition, SMI resides within a federal program/government that is at risk of becoming insolvent. How it can meet the next year's costs in 2035, 2086, or any year when supposedly everything around it will be on the brink of going belly up is a mystery...but somehow lawmakers simply asserted that it can be done no problem. I'd imagine Reinhart and Rogoff would have a heart attack if they found out.

And while they're being cited as justification for austerity, the Fed is just crediting and debiting accounts to stimulate.

However, Bernanke also warns that the US is on an unsustainable path...even though stimulate the economy, headwinds, blah blah, let's hinder our efforts

Meanwhile you have an economist/associate at the St. Louis Fed saying the unsustainable path isn't what you think.

And of course James Galbraith asserts CBO health care projections are wrong. Therefore, the unsustainable path isn't what you think.

So we've got errors in Excel, bad inflation assumptions, disagreement on how/if the US is on a sustainable path...I can see why folks don't ask whether or not the Pentagon will still be around.
 
The 'status quo', socially liberal conservatives can just vote Obama, the real difficulty is for people on the left who want dramatic change in their favor and have nobody to vote for in a 2 party system, and no viable movement since Occupy was smashed.

It is infuriating that what used to be a trademark of the left (grassroots mass mobilization, consistent protests, unified clear goals etc.) is now exclusive to the far right. Extremely sad state of affairs.

I agree, Obama is a burkean conservative which is great for me, not so great for lefties. I do like him as a president, he's stabilising, centre right and reform orientated, it has to be terribly disappointing for progressives though.
 
And many of the far-right talkers push that narrative. Beck, Limbaugh, etc. . . . "Don't listen to the lamestream media, the drive-by media, etc. . . . listen to me." Of course, the irony is that they are just talk shows where the host picks a few news stories that they feel push their narrative and then riff on the. Well . . . why are you listening to those shows if they are simply also based on the mainstream news? So there is an internal inconsistency there. But I guess they do get the Svengali spin of the host.

But if you just listen to those folks (or just listen to Rachel Maddow), you'll get a very incomplete view of the full news out there.

Fox is actually the mainstream of the crazy, as is Limbaugh. Try World Net Daily and other high traffic ultra right websites and you'll find ideas fox wouldn't dream of running.
 
any final guesses whether the senate gun bill will pass or fail today?

im gonna say fail sadly.

Edit:
Savannah Guthrie ‏@SavannahGuthrie 3m
RT @DomenicoNBC: @KellyO reports: Sen. Joe Manchin tells NBC News "we will not get the votes today"
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Glenn Beck said that the Boston bombings couldn't have been done by right wing terrorists because they attack "the government" and don't attack innocent civilians.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Agreed but a complete revolt in the House, Fox, Limbaugh, etc could hurt the bill's senate chances; plus many republican senators will attempt to kill the process with ridiculous amendments. It remains to be seen how republicans - specifically Rubio - will handle this once it moves from bipartisan goodwill to partisan bickering, Obama giving speeches*, potential protests during the spring/summer recess, etc.

Rubio deserves a lot of credit for holding the far right at bay, but he could bail if this becomes Obamacare 2.0 or Bush's immigration push redux.

*not blaming Obama or criticizing just noting that the more he pushes for this, the more the far right will froth.

What bet did you lose this time? And do you hate 2Pac or something? LOL!
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
They shouldn't be allowed to do that either imo, as it still creates stupid voters and spreads ignorance. Just one of the reasons private schools should be gotten rid of entirely.

Nothing wrong with private schools. Wise up a bit. Everything the GOP loves isn't bad.
 

pigeon

Banned
Nothing wrong with private schools. Wise up a bit. Everything the GOP loves isn't bad.

Private schools exist to provide the rich an out so that they can freely support destructive cuts to public schools. I'm not saying we should get rid of them necessarily, but there are valid reasons to consider them a negative influence on society.
 
What bet did you lose this time? And do you hate 2Pac or something? LOL!
I had that Hillary avatar for six months as promised. I love 2pac bro.

Sounds like gun control is dead. If two senators (one dem one rep) with A ratings from the NRA couldn't get 60 votes for something 80% of the country supports then there's no hope for anything else.
 

Vestal

Junior Member
Gives Democrats something to run on at least... sigh.

You know what, that's not even a consolation price. This is absolutely retarded. Real change to Washington has to come. It can't be possible for such a small sector of the population to hold 91% of America from getting what it wants.

If it fails, I want a the President to come out tonight address the nation and put a beating on every single senator that voted no. This crap has to stop now. I don't care about all the political bs going behind closed doors, or the back scratching going on. NONE OF THAT should matter. 91% of Americans support Universal Background checks, nothing else matters.
 
Fox is actually the mainstream of the crazy, as is Limbaugh. Try World Net Daily and other high traffic ultra right websites and you'll find ideas fox wouldn't dream of running.

Yeah, it is awesome when Rand Paul, Michelle Bachmann, and other far-right people take stories from those sites and use them for the basis of questions in public hearings. People just stare at them and think WTF?
 
You know what, that's not even a consolation price. This is absolutely retarded. Real change to Washington has to come. It can't be possible for such a small sector of the population to hold 91% of America from getting what it wants.

If it fails, I want a the President to come out tonight address the nation and put a beating on every single senator that voted no. This crap has to stop now. I don't care about all the political bs going behind closed doors, or the back scratching going on. NONE OF THAT should matter. 91% of Americans support Universal Background checks, nothing else matters.
I completely agree with you. I'd be willing to bet many of the red state senators who opposed this also come from states that have majority support for background checks, but they're being whipped by the NRA who wields an uncomfortable amount of power for any lobbyist group.
 

Angry Fork

Member
Looks like any gun bill is dead.

This country's obsession with guns is scary, deadly and embarrassing

When there's another inevitable financial collapse/global warming issue within the next 10-15 years things will hopefully swing back to the left dramatically and gun control can be part of that.
 
I wonder what actually would be able to pass.

Probably making it easier to have guns.

When there's another inevitable financial collapse/global warming issue within the next 10-15 years things will hopefully swing back to the left dramatically and gun control can be part of that.

Nope, demographics will though. Though geography is gonna make it hard.

If I was advising dems I would tell them to focus on consolidating their base they will/are a majority the republican constituencies are quite literally dying out. They're fighting cold war era battles. The youth and minorities don't view the world though that lense. They like the free market, liberty, etc. but they don't like the free market™ and liberty™.

I've just come to the conclusion is gonna be a long slog through probably 2020/2022 when we really start seeing major shifts.

Speaking of climate change that stuff is even more depressing because we don't have the time to wait out demographic changes. I got to talk to bill mckibben last night though and I like what he's doing with his 350.org, movement politics is how you're going to shift that issue. And the funny thing is the solution on that is so simple and painless, tax carbon.
 

Renji_11

Member
The Benghazi fake cover up talk since the Boston bombing made be remember that I saw Susan Rice last week at The MLK memorial at the National Mall. She had a few security guards with her and I think her mom and some other family members. Unfortunately I couldn't take a picture because I was holding my baby.
 
Probably making it easier to have guns.



Nope, demographics will though. Though geography is gonna make it hard.

If I was advising dems I would tell them to focus on consolidating their base they will/are a majority the republican constituencies are quite literally dying out. They're fighting cold war era battles. The youth and minorities don't view the world though that lense. They like the free market, liberty, etc. but they don't like the free market™ and liberty™.

I've just come to the conclusion is gonna be a long slog through probably 2020/2022 when we really start seeing major shifts.

Speaking of climate change that stuff is even more depressing because we don't have the time to wait out demographic changes. I got to talk to bill mckibben last night though and I like what he's doing with his 350.org, movement politics is how you're going to shift that issue. And the funny thing is the solution on that is so simple and painless, tax carbon.
Yup.

The 2020/2024 elections are pretty much going to determine the direction American politics go for the next 30-50 years.
 
Follow up to my last post

Like clockwork 2% every year
Screen-shot-2012-11-08-at-3.01.55-PM.png


The white vote will be around 70% in 2016 and 68% in 2020. This is even more pronounced in Texas, New York, California, Florida. States that actually have electoral votes. And this isn't something they can erase by say changing a few policies. Blacks and Hispanics are democratic and liberal on pretty much every issue.

The GOP is done as a national party save for a extremely good candidate
 
If I was advising dems I would tell them to focus on consolidating their base they will/are a majority the republican constituencies are quite literally dying out. They're fighting cold war era battles. The youth and minorities don't view the world though that lense. They like the free market, liberty, etc. but they don't like the free market™ and liberty™.

I've just come to the conclusion is gonna be a long slog through probably 2020/2022 when we really start seeing major shifts.

Speaking of climate change that stuff is even more depressing because we don't have the time to wait out demographic changes. I got to talk to bill mckibben last night though and I like what he's doing with his 350.org, movement politics is how you're going to shift that issue. And the funny thing is the solution on that is so simple and painless, tax carbon.

The prediction that demographic shifts will turn in the lefts favour and triumph over the right have been going on for a century now. The history of American politics is full of ideas of permanent coalitions. What will keep the Republicans out of power is that they are unfit to Govern, but they will probably hold the house until the end of this decade based on the way the maps have been drawn up. I wouldn't expect much change unless they lose the next presidential bid, and even then it depends on how badly they lose.
 
Follow up to my last post

Like clockwork 2% every year
Screen-shot-2012-11-08-at-3.01.55-PM.png


The white vote will be around 70% in 2016 and 68% in 2020. This is even more pronounced in Texas, New York, California, Florida. States that actually have electoral votes. And this isn't something they can erase by say changing a few policies. Blacks and Hispanics are democratic and liberal on pretty much every issue.

The GOP is done as a national party save for a extremely good candidate

Not in a boom/bust business cycle. Obama has survived a shitty economy largely thanks to their truly being no legitimate other political option in this country, but a good GOP candidate in the future (Chris Christie?) could change that. Basically if a democrat is unlikely enough to be president during a 2007/2008 economic crash, a republican will win.
 

kingkitty

Member
This gun bill would probably get the votes needed to pass if it was like, a ban on personal use of nuclear weapons. I think.

So much for that background check compromise. How much more will they water it down I wonder.
 
The prediction that demographic shifts will turn in the lefts favour and triumph over the right have been going on for a century now. The history of American politics is full of ideas of permanent coalitions. What will keep the Republicans out of power is that they are unfit to Govern, but they will probably hold the house until the end of this decade based on the way the maps have been drawn up. I wouldn't expect much change unless they lose the next presidential bid, and even then it depends on how badly they lose.

Republicans have also talked about permanent majorities too (which is a silly idea, parties will change when forced to, their number one goal is to be elected)

The idea of being "unfit to govern" is silly because its a judgement call based on your political ideology, if you like the tea party bachmann is very fit to govern. If you're not you think she's insane

I'm not discounting the fact that there can be republican wins during that term but american politics moves in roughly 40 year cycles, especially on a presidential scale. In the last 100 years we have

-from the turn of the century till about 1930 a republican streak (Wilson won becauses the republicans were infighting)

-1930 through 1968 a democratic period (Ike was a republican in a democratic world and is why republicans hate him). A lot of this was driven by new immigrants who were poor and supported government programs.

-1968-2008 republican majority (clinton and carter both emerged through accident and molding themselves into the republican narrative) driven by white resentment over the civil rights act.

-2008-whenever Democratic majority driven by growing minority voters

As you can see there are exceptions as scandals and good candidates can break through the predominate political feeling in the country which are more often than not driven by demographic changes

Not in a boom/bust business cycle. Obama has survived a shitty economy largely thanks to their truly being no legitimate other political option in this country, but a good GOP candidate in the future (Chris Christie?) could change that. Basically if a democrat is unlikely enough to be president during a 2007/2008 economic crash, a republican will win.

Yes wars and economic crisis can through a loop into a general trend but I don't by the whole republicans aren't good candidates reasoning. you know why they are not? because people don't like their ideas. Romney didn't lose because he was bad at running to be president (though if he was better he would have had a chance) but because his policies weren't popular with the majority of the country.

If christe or any other "good candidate" were to run they'd have to face a primary and a skeptical base just the same.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Has anybody been seeing this stuff on TV were somebody or people are trying to kill Obama and other Senators?! Like WTF is going on?
 
What's even better about those O'Reily Twitter comments is Bill was trying to make a connection to Benghazi Monday night when talking about the Boston bombings.

Oh, and if you think anyone at Fox cares at all about what people are saying on Twitter, you're sadly mistaken.
 
-1968-2008 republican majority (clinton and carter both emerged through accident and molding themselves into the republican narrative) driven by white resentment over the civil rights act.
I dunno. Clinton was a moderate, to be sure, but Democrats had 3 straight wins in the popular vote (92, 96, 00). Bush's 04 victory was seen as a recalibration at the time but looking at the last 20 years it was clearly the anomaly.

There was a Republican resurgence in Congress so it's a bit more complicated than that, of course. But these eras are typically looked at in regard to presidential politics.
 
I dunno. Clinton was a moderate, to be sure, but Democrats had 3 straight wins in the popular vote (92, 96, 00). Bush's 04 victory was seen as a recalibration at the time but looking at the last 20 years it was clearly the anomaly.

There was a Republican resurgence in Congress so it's a bit more complicated than that, of course. But these eras are typically looked at in regard to presidential politics.

Clinton and gore didn't run as progressives, they ran as center-right democrats trying to take advantage of southern whites and republican voters (Crime, Gay rights, welfare, etc). That's why I think it fair to say Obama was the start of the trend.

Also LOL

BIEhd_sCUAESz1Q.png
 
Clinton and gore didn't run as progressives, they ran as center-right democrats trying to take advantage of southern whites and republican voters (Crime, Gay rights, welfare, etc). That's why I think it fair to say Obama was the start of the trend.
Fair enough although Clinton pushed some progressive legislation in his first two years of office, especially relative to his next six years. Gingrich coming into power forced his hand.

A Colbert in congress?
Jumped off that sinking ship faster than the Akin and Mourdock campaigns.

I guess the GOP is confident they'll just pick up the seat again in 2014. To their credit that's probably correct, but it'll still put them on the losing side of the narrative for a couple of days.
 
Laura Ingraham had Marco Rubio on the show the segment before I tuned in.
She was trying to have it both ways, for now. 'I trust Rubio' 'If only he could go through the 844 pages personally'.
Made sure to mention 844 pages a couple more times.

Comedy was delivered when riffing about hypothetical started. 'What if someone goes to El Salvador for 2 months and comes back. We'd never know they were not here for the full time required'
The rant turned to letting law breakers off the hook after a few years and a little fine. She at first looked at it from The Dickensian Aspect. 'Do we forgive a pickpocket after a $500 fine.' Then to 'Insider trading, do just let that happen with the stock market?'
Mocked Janet Napolitano and how she's not going to enforce the rules anyway. Went to commercial break.

She cracks the door of what if financial market criminals getting a free pass from the law? I think Matt Taibbi's spidey sense caused him to stop doing whatever he was and he just yelled expletives for a minute.
 
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