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PoliGAF 2013 |OT3| 1,000 Years of Darkness and Nuclear Fallout

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B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Style Fox said:
At this moment it's looking a lot like republican congress in 2014 and Christie in the White House in 2016.

Things change though.
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:lol @ the bold

Christie won't play outside of Jersey. If you think he will then you haven't been paying close enough attention.
 
W

WayneMorse

Banned
PhoenixPause said:
Obama's numbers will get even worse in a month when unemployment benefits run out and the sequester goes into fuller impact.
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Jesus Christ there's gonna be another budget battle in a month so UE benefits and the sequester are gonna be front and center.

No the GOP is not gonna gain control of the Senate, the most I can see the Dems losing is 4, the three open seats in West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota, and the only incumbent losing is Pryor. These could easily be offset by gains in Kentucky and Georgia.

The Dems can gain control of the House if the White House fixes the website and Reid comes out swinging in the next budget battle and makes the GOP look awful.

And the nominee in 2016 is gonna be Scott Walker unless Ted Cruz manages to pull off a miraculous Obama 2008-style grassroots movement. Christie has too many skeletons in his closet to be the nominee.
 
P

platypotamus

Member
Cyan said:
One of the problems with posting a great deal in a thread like this one, where everyone mostly agrees with each other, is that the people who don't agree (I mean fundamentally, not just on details) are mostly not going to chime in unless they're trolls just stirring things up. Which primes us to see everyone who disagrees with us as trolls.

For the most part, the people disagreeing with median poligaf opinions in OT political threads are not trolls, they just... disagree with median poligaf opinions.

We'd be much more likely to have productive conversations in OT political threads if we took posts at face value and tried to interpret them charitably, rather than just assuming someone is a troll. It takes more time and effort to respond that way than to just rattle off an "lol u trollin son," but I think it's usually worth putting in the effort.

It's worth noting that OT political threads are more likely to draw less-informed or younger posters than this thread is. Which means that sometimes you are going to get people saying things that sound foolish to you, or that you think are straight-up incorrect. But again, try to bear in mind that it's not actually helpful or good for discussion if you dismiss them out of hand. If you :lol at them, do they not bleed? Well, ok, they don't, but you know what I mean. :p

This isn't to single you out personally, or anything, I just don't like to see the thread going in this direction. I prefer it when we just talk politics without getting snippy about the rest of the forum, and reinforcing our own preconceptions about people who disagree with us.
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Right, I get you, and wasn't necessarily referring to people with different opinions. Sometimes when I wander outside of the more insular community threads that I tend to spend my time in, I end up surprised at how old I am. I think things like "why would you make a joke about a dead hooker being found in the pope's room?" or "really, you're going to claim that America isn't a free market, it's fascism?" Then I think back to posts I might have made, had I had a NeoGAF when I was 13 or something, and I am relieved that I did not, as I probably took some Dead Kennedys lyrics far more seriously than I should have.

I'm really going to have to figure out some way to get that lesson through to my daughter before she starts posting on the Internet. Fortunately, she's not even a year old, so I've got a little bit of time. Not enough, probably, but a little bit.
 
C

Carpe Libertatem

Member
Avon Barksdale said:
I can't see a Republican winning PA in a close race. They'd have to win in a rout like Old Bush did '88.
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I personally don't either, but it was surprising to see that Christie was beating Clinton there. It is three years out, of course, and we're only in the invisible primary, but I think the consensus was that Hillary was an incredibly strong candidate that would at the very least easily win Obama 2012 states. And this is Pennsylvania, too, so it's not really a swing state like Ohio where something like this may make sense.

She still beats everyone but Christie though.

edit: he also wasnt helping pat toomey, who was still down quite a bit. but thats hard to gauge in a poll
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
PhoenixPause said:
Guess you missed the part of the poll where it showed 58% of people oppose the law.
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And you missed the second half of the sentence:

And while 58% currently disapprove of the law, 14% of those disapprove because it's not liberal enough.
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The % that want it repealed, rather than improved is still well below 50%. I'd say opposition to the law has bottomed out. Once November's numbers come in, and especially December's, the fiasco rollout will begin to fade.
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
IronicallyTwisted said:
So the way to fight a reactive media machine is to create another reactive media machine and crush the Rathers and Logans on the world. She made a silly mistake, it happens. You see a major story and you jump on it, she didn't check was she was doing and was punished for it.
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Bullshit. Cross-posting from the other thread:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-asks-lara-logan-to-take-leave-after-flawed-benghazi-report/

"Logan made a speech in which she took a strong public position arguing that the US Government was misrepresenting the threat from Al Qaeda, and urging actions that the US should take in response to the Benghazi attack," the report says. "From a CBS News Standards perspective, there is a conflict in taking a public position on the government’s handling of Benghazi and Al Qaeda, while continuing to report on the story."
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Remember when journalists could be counted on to be objective and impartial and just report the news? CBS needs to keep this woman away from 60 Minutes (or any other news program) permanently.

I'm sure Fox News will scoop her up immediately.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
platypotamus said:
I'm really going to have to figure out some way to get that lesson through to my daughter before she starts posting on the Internet. Fortunately, she's not even a year old, so I've got a little bit of time. Not enough, probably, but a little bit.
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You better hurry. She could turn into another me if you're not careful.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
So the GOP is inventing fake stories again.

I missed them

z17Vhoq.jpg
SQF08Hp.jpg


Their senate committee just recycles chain emails.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
And you missed the second half of the sentence:



The % that want it repealed, rather than improved is still well below 50%. I'd say opposition to the law has bottomed out. Once November's numbers come in, and especially December's, the fiasco rollout will begin to fade.
Click to expand...

I've seen Greg Sargent focus on this for years, and to me it seems like skewing. The question does not ask if they want the law repealed, it asks whether people approve of it or not; opposition has always been higher than the amount who want it repealed. So in that sense it doesn't really matter whether they want a more liberal law or not: they oppose the law. Doesn't mean they want to scrap it, but it highlights that the law remains largely unpopular amongst a vast majority of Americans.

In general I think opposition will remain high, however the numbers will essentially move back to 50-50. The problem for the law will be that any changes to healthcare insurance will automatically be blamed on the law, meaning a lot of people who aren't impacted by it will be upset/opposed regardless.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
PhoenixPause said:
I've seen Greg Sargent focus on this for years, and to me it seems like skewing. The question does not ask if they want the law repealed, it asks whether people approve of it or not; opposition has always been higher than the amount who want it repealed. So in that sense it doesn't really matter whether they want a more liberal law or not: they oppose the law. Doesn't mean they want to scrap it, but it highlights that the law remains largely unpopular amongst a vast majority of Americans.

In general I think opposition will remain high, however the numbers will essentially move back to 50-50. The problem for the law will be that any changes to healthcare insurance will automatically be blamed on the law, meaning a lot of people who aren't impacted by it will be upset/opposed regardless.
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It matters because the high opposition is cited as helpful to Republicans. If they want a more liberal bill chances are they're sympathetic to dems.

It won't hurt in 2014 except maybe with disillusioned voters
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
GhaleonEB said:
And you missed the second half of the sentence:



The % that want it repealed, rather than improved is still well below 50%. I'd say opposition to the law has bottomed out. Once November's numbers come in, and especially December's, the fiasco rollout will begin to fade.
Click to expand...

It's quite remarkable, really. Ever since the law was passed, I've literally not seen a single poll that has shifted those numbers. It's ALWAYS been at a majority disapproval rating, but it's ALWAYS cause a chunk of those people don't think it goes far enough. And these numbers have weathered even the presidency destroying healthcare.govnado. Obamacare is here to stay.


Oh, btw Ghal. Did you get an Xbone yet?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
PhoenixPause said:
I've seen Greg Sargent focus on this for years, and to me it seems like skewing. The question does not ask if they want the law repealed, it asks whether people approve of it or not; opposition has always been higher than the amount who want it repealed. So in that sense it doesn't really matter whether they want a more liberal law or not: they oppose the law. Doesn't mean they want to scrap it, but it highlights that the law remains largely unpopular amongst a vast majority of Americans.

In general I think opposition will remain high, however the numbers will essentially move back to 50-50. The problem for the law will be that any changes to healthcare insurance will automatically be blamed on the law, meaning a lot of people who aren't impacted by it will be upset/opposed regardless.
Click to expand...

True, but the trend I've seen in polls that do ask that is nearly everyone who opposes it because it's not liberal enough do NOT want to go back to the system we had before it was passed. Support for repeal is almost certainly well under 50%.

I suspect it will grown in popularity over time, especially as the number of people helped grows. Not only with those helped, but with people in contact with them. You're right that the law will be blamed for things it's not responsible for - we've seen that already - but I still don't see how things get worse from here. Come next year the rollout will be a distant memory and we'll have millions covered who were not before. The entire argument will be flipped - repealing the law means throwing them off of their coverage, returning to pre-existing conditions, and so on.

Oblivion said:
It's quite remarkable, really. Ever since the law was passed, I've literally not seen a single poll that has shifted those numbers. It's ALWAYS been at a majority disapproval rating, but it's ALWAYS cause a chunk of those people don't think it goes far enough. And these numbers have weathered even the presidency destroying healthcare.govnado. Obamacare is here to stay.


Oh, btw Ghal. Did you get an Xbone yet?
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I'm getting a PS4, but not until Destiny ships (assuming I like the beta). There's nothing in the launch lineup that appeals to me and we're hemorrhaging cash as fast as possible right now with unexpected projects at home. I'm sitting here recovering from just having completed our new sewer line. Will be nice to have water again.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
True, but the trend I've seen in polls that do ask that is nearly everyone who opposes it because it's not liberal enough do NOT want to go back to the system we had before it was passed. Support for repeal is almost certainly well under 50%.

I suspect it will grown in popularity over time, especially as the number of people helped grows. Not only with those helped, but with people in contact with them. You're right that the law will be blamed for things it's not responsible for - we've seen that already - but I still don't see how things get worse from here. Come next year the rollout will be a distant memory and we'll have millions covered who were not before. The entire argument will be flipped - repealing the law means throwing them off of their coverage, returning to pre-existing conditions, and so on.

.
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This is a very good point. Republicans won't be able to argue that only a few people are impacted either, considering direct repeal would raise everyone's premiums and outright cancel plans for whatever amount of folks sign up (5-7 million people hopefully).
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
PhoenixPause said:
This is a very good point. Republicans won't be able to argue that only a few people are impacted either, considering direct repeal would raise everyone's premiums and outright cancel plans for whatever amount of folks sign up (5-7 million people hopefully).
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I need to go back and read, but I think that was one of the things the GOP was so worried about. The law changes the status quo and moves the baseline for debate about the system.

I wonder how much the slow rollout has affected the internal White House projections for private insurance sign ups on the exchanges. IIRC the target was 7m. They have time to catch up by the end of March, but I do hope they hit that target.
Samarecarm said:
People have been promising that since the PPACA was passed, and, several years later, it still hasn't happened.
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That is because the vast bulk of the law does not go into effect until January 1st. If it hasn't started to shift by the end of next year, I'll be revising my expectations accordingly.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Samarecarm said:
People have been promising that since the PPACA was passed, and, several years later, it still hasn't happened.
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To be fair, most of the law didn't go into effect until October 1st. Much of previous Obamacare angst was largely theoretical - basically a spectre on which republicans could hurl any outrageous claims without fear of reprisal. Now the law is active but most of the outrage/opposition is aimed at the shitty roll out plus general angst about the annual rise of premiums for folks (although obviously, premium growth has decreased; personally I think this has more to do with the economy stalling than Obamacare).

Once the website is fixed things will change, but as I said earlier I think the law will hover around 50-50 for a long time. It's like when a person's state/local taxes increase, or gas prices increase - some people always blame the president. The same will apply to many people who see premium increases or deductible changes in the future.
 
W

WayneMorse

Banned
Unfortunately the best way for the law to have worked was for every state to have expanded Medicaid and opened up an exchange. Imagine Kentucky except for every state instead of just one.

It's really unfortunate too that a lot of states are outright refusing to expand Medicaid even though that money could be very helpful going toward state services like mental health. It's even worse that blue states like New Hampshire and Maine are still refusing to accept any Medicaid money because Tea Party leftovers from 2010 are blocking it.

Fuck you John Roberts, and fuck you Kagan and Breyer for going along with it. The law would've been a huge success by now if they hadn't struck down that part it.
 
P

PBY

Banned
I thibk that the ACA is a fucked up law- but when I come home and Fox news is on 24/7 I am enlightened about all the "real" reasons why it's insidious.
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
platypotamus said:
Then I think back to posts I might have made, had I had a NeoGAF when I was 13 or something, and I am relieved that I did not, as I probably took some Dead Kennedys lyrics far more seriously than I should have.
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Heh, for me it's more my propensity to put my foot in my mouth given enough time, and I've been around here for a very long time. That and my attitude. When I read my old posts I'm like "damn, dude, slow down".

When you get older you appreciate being more diplomatic and needing to cover your bases more when being forceful.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
PhoenixPause said:
I've seen Greg Sargent focus on this for years, and to me it seems like skewing. The question does not ask if they want the law repealed, it asks whether people approve of it or not; opposition has always been higher than the amount who want it repealed. So in that sense it doesn't really matter whether they want a more liberal law or not: they oppose the law. Doesn't mean they want to scrap it, but it highlights that the law remains largely unpopular amongst a vast majority of Americans.

In general I think opposition will remain high, however the numbers will essentially move back to 50-50. The problem for the law will be that any changes to healthcare insurance will automatically be blamed on the law, meaning a lot of people who aren't impacted by it will be upset/opposed regardless.
Click to expand...

Is this just your usual trolling? Do you really think that the people who 'disapprove' of the law because they want single payer are going to vote for Ted Cruz because his tough stance against Obamacare?
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
K

kingkitty

Member
Yesterday I watched Obama pardon a turkey.

But today, I will pardon no turkeys. Nor will I pardon the stuffing. Or the mash potatoes.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Hitokage said:
Heh, for me it's more my propensity to put my foot in my mouth given enough time, and I've been around here for a very long time. That and my attitude. When I read my old posts I'm like "damn, dude, slow down".

When you get older you appreciate being more diplomatic and needing to cover your bases more when being forceful.
Click to expand...

Amazingly I don't have too many embarrassing moments in my posting history since I started posting on message boards. I was way more rude, and cursed a lot more back then, and I used to think I was hot shit when I temporarily flirted with libertarianism ("look at me! Both sides are dumb! South Park's the greatest thing ever!")
 
W

worldrunover

Member
WayneMorse said:
And please stop and think about the thousands of retail workers who have to sacrifice their holiday in order to be at work today.
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Interesting topic. I've changed my mind on this a few times. At first I thought it was abhorrent, but then I realize that people really do want to work today in order to get time and a half, and many people take seasonal jobs this time of year for days like today for the extra cash. But then when you think about why people need that extra dough, because maybe at time and a half they are actually making a living wage today, it again becomes pretty awful. If the minimum wage was at a decent level, this may not be an issue.

Then again, capitalism. If people are willing to shop then stores are willing to be open. So really blame our excessive and over indulgent culture when it comes down to it.
 
W

WayneMorse

Banned
The retail workers of America could really use a $15.50 minimum wage right now. We shouldn't be using taxpayer money to subsidize Walmart's low wages through Medicaid and food stamps.

I just hope for the next budget battle Reid finds a way to fund the food stamp program again, a lot of people are fucked without it.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
WayneMorse said:
And please stop and think about the thousands of retail workers who have to sacrifice their holiday in order to be at work today.
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I've normally gone out to stores for black Friday but I don't really need 3 dollar blurays today.

The only way it ends is if people don't shop
Dax01 said:
Happy Thanksgiving, PoliGAF! Here's a chart for you.

enhanced-buzz-wide-1035-1352488120-4.jpg


For more, click here: http://www.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeedpolitics/what-the-2012-election-would-have-looked-like-with
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Wow my vote helped swing a state!

And thanks women! Us men would have screwed everything up
 
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