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[NYCmetsfan]

Let the GOP threaten to shut down the gov't to protect loopholes, then. Reid could also pass a CR at previous spending levels.

Or, you know, they could have done the same sequester shit without any of the revenue hikes.

The Dems needed to dig in their heels and fight this one. It's how they won the last few fights.

First Bold: Would go nowhere in the house, they'd pass a clean CR, Boehner: "we're not asking the Dems for anything, they want us to fold, we just want to continue at current levels, lets have this discussion during the election"

Underlined: Going nowhere in the house, they'd pass a clean CR Boehner: "we need to pay for our spending"

Second bold: What did they win in those fights? We didn't eliminate any of the sequester. What we won was the GOP not instituting their frankly crazy demands.
the dems 'won' something in this. They got some sequester relieve to get that you need to give something to the house.

The only question is the status quo is better and worse than this.

 

[JesseEwiak]

Let the GOP threaten to shut down the gov't to protect loopholes, then. Reid could also pass a CR at previous spending levels.

Or, you know, they could have done the same sequester shit without any of the revenue hikes.

The Dems needed to dig in their heels and fight this one. It's how they won the last few fights.

Unfortunately, I have to disagree. For the last couple of months, the story has been, the GOP is too crazy to compromise. Now, that they have a compromise that will be sold as "reasonable" on the nightly news by DLC Democrats, the Corporate Media, and Independents In Name Only, it'll hurt Obama to fight this.

It sucks and I hope there's a way to extend unemployment insurance (for very selfish reasons - especially in about three or four months), but these are the breaks.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Unfortunately, I have to disagree. For the last couple of months, the story has been, the GOP is too crazy to compromise. Now, that they have a compromise that will be sold as "reasonable" on the nightly news by DLC Democrats, the Corporate Media, and Independents In Name Only, it'll hurt Obama to fight this.

It sucks and I hope there's a way to extend unemployment insurance (for very selfish reasons - especially in about three or four months), but these are the breaks.

Unemployment insurance isn't going anywhere. Remember the payroll tax holiday? The hunger cliff? Once the event happens, its forgotten because the status quo benefits the GOP preferred policy outcomes.

This congress only works if it has a deadline it must work by. Otherwise, it ain't doing anything productive.

The problem is the make up of congress. This isn't changing until elections. The best thing for the dems to do is position themselves well for them. Uses the bully pulpit, hold hearings, etc.

 

[Black Mamba]

First Bold: Would go nowhere in the house, they'd pass a clean CR, Boehner: "we're not asking the Dems for anything, they want us to fold, we just want to continue at current levels, lets have this discussion during the election"

Underlined: Going nowhere in the house, they'd pass a clean CR Boehner: "we need to pay for our spending"

Second bold: What did they win in those fights? We didn't eliminate any of the sequester. What we won was the GOP not instituting their frankly crazy demands.
the dems 'won' something in this. They got some sequester relieve to get that you need to give something to the house.

The only question is the status quo is better and worse than this.

They got some sequester relief for a short time and tax hikes during the fiscal cliff. Gov't shutdown they got the clean CR instead of entitlement reform.

The whole point was increasing military as a give to the House. I get that there's less of them that care, but still what was the point of increasing taxes on the middle class?


I'm not convinced Boehner could pass a clean CR but again, even if he did, Reid can toss it back at current spending levels and argue about UEC, etc. I don't believe the GOP would win this fight. Especially in light of the last recent shutdown. The public has largely soured on them.

The Dems gave them an out.

And even if a clean CR was passed, Dems could run in 2014 against sequester by promising specific spending. I don't like this one fucking bit.

Unfortunately, I have to disagree. For the last couple of months, the story has been, the GOP is too crazy to compromise. Now, that they have a compromise that will be sold as "reasonable" on the nightly news by DLC Democrats, the Corporate Media, and Independents In Name Only, it'll hurt Obama to fight this.

It sucks and I hope there's a way to extend unemployment insurance (for very selfish reasons - especially in about three or four months), but these are the breaks.

I mean before this deal was reached. Now that it's been made, their hands are tied. Murray fucked the Dems bad, here.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

They got some sequester relief for a short time and tax hikes during the fiscal cliff. Gov't shutdown they got the clean CR instead of entitlement reform.

To the first, sequester wasn't law so it wasn't a 'give.' Dem's held leverage (taxes were going up if they did nothing).

The status quo wasn't entitlement reform it was the sequester that didn't change. You're right they didn't enact entitlement reform but not giving something up is a weak 'win. 'That's my point, they won by not losing anything more than the lost in 2011. I don't think that's 'winning' policy-wise

The whole point was increasing military as a give to the House. I get that there's less of them that care, but still what was the point of increasing taxes on the middle class?

I'm not convinced Boehner could pass a clean CR but again, even if he did, Reid can toss it back at current spending levels and argue about UEC, etc. I don't believe the GOP would win this fight. Especially in light of the last recent shutdown. The public has largely soured on them.

The Dems gave them an out.

And even if a clean CR was passed, Dems could run in 2014 against sequester by promising specific spending. I don't like this one fucking bit.

Its also a win for a lot of dems. And the point was that it was the demand by the GOP (you need their votes) for the lifting of non-defense sequester levels. The dems can't just pass what they want. The GOP made the demand and the murry said it was worth it.

and you last points about this 'fight' the dems would win I think is just wishful thinking hard to debate as its a matter of opinion but I think history shows winning the narrative doesn't move the GOP. The dems win in every poll on those issues. Doesn't translate to anything.

Why can't the dems run for changing this deal? That's I think the strongest argument against this deal but I think its too much of a risk as I don't know how it would play out and what other things will be a part of the election (Obamacare, Iran, handshake-gate?)

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Edit: double posting cause its really late

 

[Black Mamba]

To the first, sequester wasn't law so it wasn't a 'give.' Dem's held leverage (taxes were going up if they did nothing).

The status quo wasn't entitlement reform it was the sequester that didn't change. You're right they didn't enact entitlement reform but not giving something up is a weak 'win. 'That's my point, they won by not losing anything more than the lost in 2011. I don't think that's 'winning' policy-wise


Its also a win for a lot of dems. And the point was that it was the demand by the GOP (you need their votes) for the lifting of non-defense sequester levels. The dems can't just pass what they want. The GOP made the demand and the murry said it was worth it.

and you last points about this 'fight' the dems would win I think is just wishful thinking hard to debate as its a matter of opinion but I think history shows winning the narrative doesn't move the GOP. The dems win in every poll on those issues. Doesn't translate to anything.

Why can't the dems run for changing this deal? That's I think the strongest argument against this deal but I think its too much of a risk as I don't know how it would play out and what other things will be a part of the election (Obamacare, Iran, handshake-gate?)

Run for changing a deal they sign off on.

Here's the other thing. Does the GOP have enough votes to pass this or any compromise? No? Then Dems should have gotten more out of it. Let Boehner try to bet on a clean CR, then.

This is just a stupid deal, sorry. Dems caved because people won't realize the airline fees that hurt them and won't take blame for it.

Now Ryan is a savior of the party, the GOP looks compromising, sequester is very set in stone, etc.

Now was the time to bet and bet big against the GOP. Dems didn't step up to the challenge.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Run for changing a deal they sign off on.

Here's the other thing. Does the GOP have enough votes to pass this or any compromise? No? Then Dems should have gotten more out of it. Let Boehner try to bet on a clean CR, then.

This is just a stupid deal, sorry. Dems caved because people won't realize the airline fees that hurt them and won't take blame for it.

Now Ryan is a savior of the party, the GOP looks compromising, sequester is very set in stone, etc.

Now was the time to bet and bet big against the GOP. Dems didn't step up to the challenge.

I just don't think the risks were worth it. The GOP in the past has never caved just given up their demands (the fiscal cliff maybe but again they lost worse by doing nothing).

The bolded is what I'm most worried about but its why you go to issues where the public on your side and the GOP looks uncompromising.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

I thought Ted Cruz was the savior? Or was it Marco Rubio?

 

[TacticalFox88]

You know what? Fuck it. Give me another goverment shutdown. It's the only way Dems find their balls.

Sad part is, Bams USED to call out their cowardly behavior and now he's just....blah.

Godfucking dammit.

I want to know the GENUINE AND COMPLETELY honest fucking reason WHY they keep doing this.

 

[JesseEwiak]

I thought Ted Cruz was the savior? Or was it Marco Rubio?

Ryan is the savior for the Pro-Business "Jesus Christ, these dumb rednecks are ruining our plans to cut Social Security and Medicare" Republican's.

 

[Chichikov]

I want to know the GENUINE AND COMPLETELY honest fucking reason WHY they keep doing this.

The GOP does it because it works (and because their base want them to) and the Dems go along because their base doesn't punish them for such behavior.

 

[JesseEwiak]

The GOP does it because it works (and because their base want them to) and the Dems go along because their base doesn't punish them for such behavior.

Yup. I forget the actual numbers, but around 35% of Republican's prefer compromise while over 60% of Democrat's prefer compromise. You have to remember, there are a whole lot of suburban Mom's who only listen to NPR and their local news, Silicon Valley types, and others who are Democrat's, but consider themselves moderate and 'open to good Republican ideas.'

 

[The Librarian]

You know what? Fuck it. Give me another goverment shutdown. It's the only way Dems find their balls.

Sad part is, Bams USED to call out their cowardly behavior and now he's just....blah.

Godfucking dammit.

I want to know the GENUINE AND COMPLETELY honest fucking reason WHY they keep doing this.

This deal isn't the worst thing ever. I don't know why you're treating it as such — calm down.

Also, it's not healthy to wish for a government shutdown. People don't work and services are interrupted (I myself was affected). If you're wanting a government shutdown to satisfy some policy whims of yours, you're just as bad as Ted Cruz in this area.

 

[ElectricThunder]

That is one terrible looking deal for sure---strikes me as far more likely a "winking compromise" stemming from them being on the same page internally as I can't imagine the likes of this to be a natural, or even accidental, result of even the most half-assed of negotiating practices.

 

[Tom_Cody]

Colin Powell Endorses Single-Payer Health Care
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/12/10/colin-powell-endorses-single-payer-health-care

Well this is interesting. It looks like single-payer is actually gathering some political momentum. I had thought that Dems would steer clear of single-payer in 2016 but it looks like it is gathering a bit of steam.

I had fully expected universal pre-K to the be focus of the Democratic primary but it looks like this might be a major issue on the stage as well. Especially if Bernie Sanders runs. He could really force the issue.

 

[The Librarian]

New report on enrollment numbers:

Just about 1.2 million people have gained health coverage through Obamacare, according to new federal data released Wednesday morning.

Approximately 365,000 of those people have purchased private insurance and 803,000 have been determined to be eligible for the public Medicaid program. These numbers count data from both October and November, and show an especially quick growth in HealthCare.gov enrollment. You can see it in this graph:

 

[AndyD]

He's a black man shaking a hispanic man's hand, it's obvious they just finished signing an accord to rid the planet of old white men.

Lol, that's a good one to start off the morning.

I also laughed when NPR interviewed a Tea Party rep regarding the budget deal and he said "government fees! that's just taxes with a different name."

 

[GhaleonEB]

1.2m in the first two months is pretty good considering how back-loaded sign ups are expected to be over the first six months.

This is basically the trend line as healthcare.gov was slowly mended and before its re-launch. Worth noting that we got 50k+ federal sign ups in the first three days of December. Should that continue they could double or triple the current tally before December 21st. Still behind the original goal for end of year, but catching up.

 

[The Librarian]

1.2m in the first two months is pretty good considering how back-loaded sign ups are expected to be over the first six months.

This is basically the trend line as healthcare.gov was slowly mended and before its re-launch. Worth noting that we got 50k+ federal sign ups in the first three days of December. Should that continue they could double or triple the current tally before December 21st. Still behind the original goal for end of year, but catching up.

Really? Hadn't seen this. That's great to hear.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Really? Hadn't seen this. That's great to hear.

Here ya go. Last Tuesday nearly as many people signed up as in all of October.

 

[The Librarian]

Here ya go. Last Tuesday nearly as many people signed up as in all of October.

Ah, yes, I remember now. Yes, December will be great to see if those numbers continue like that.

 

[sc0la]

Lol, that's a good one to start off the morning.

I also laughed when NPR interviewed a Tea Party rep regarding the budget deal and he said "government fees! that's just taxes with a different name."

To be fair "increased pension contributions! That's just taxes with a different name" works too.

As an aside, I wonder how progressive airline fees are based on usage. I can't imagine federal pension contributions are, but since the participants aren't paying SS payroll taxes maybe it balances out.

 

[The Librarian]

Pelosi said it's impossible to know Dem whip count at this time, but my impression is there are a lot of unhappy members.

https://twitter.com/meredithshiner/status/410789731740684288

Almost every leader mentioned need for unemployment benefits and the political reality is w/o this vehicle, odds of passage are near 0.

https://twitter.com/meredithshiner/status/410790119789309952

 

[Giant Panda]

https://twitter.com/meredithshiner/status/410789731740684288


https://twitter.com/meredithshiner/status/410790119789309952

 

[Aylinato]

https://twitter.com/meredithshiner/status/410789731740684288


https://twitter.com/meredithshiner/status/410790119789309952

Good it's a shit deal

 

[PhoenixDark]

Good it's a shit deal

Of course if this doesn't work, democrats could get blamed for shutting down the government.

 

[jamesinclair]

The drunk driving thread sealed the deal.

This is a banana republic. Through and through.

 

[The Librarian]

Good it's a shit deal

Eh, I wouldn't say that. It's probably one of the better deals Democrats could get.

Here

This is back-of-the-envelope. But if emergency unemployment benefits lapse, the $25 billion hit to the economy would largely, if not entirely, offset the fiscal easing Ryan and Murray are contemplating on the discretionary side of the budget. That’s not trivial

If a Ryan-Murray deal were the only viable budget vehicle, then digging in for extending emergency UI benefits as part of said deal would be such an obvious play politically, and on the economic merits, that it’s hard to see Democrats’ reluctance to pick the fight at this juncture as anything other than a testament to their belief that Republicans could act unilaterally and leave them on the hook for shutting down the government.

Given the weak-kneed performance House GOP moderates staged during the shutdown fight — the willingness they demonstrated to allow hard-liners to lead them by the nose — it’s hard to blame Democrats for assuming these guys might not be reliable allies of convenience. And if that assessment is correct, then the two in the bush are unattainable, and Democrats are making the right move.​

And here

This time around, though, Democrats would lack the normative high ground they enjoyed in October. Republicans wouldn’t be taking any hostages. And though shutting down the government to leverage an extension of unemployment benefits is a more strategically and morally sound move than shutting down the government to defund Obamacare, it’s still probably a loser. Not a risk worth taking, at any rate, when unemployment can still potentially be dealt with as a sidecar issue. At the very least, a separate vote on it would help clarify who’s cutting off the jobless and undermining growth in this economy, during the holidays no less.​

 

[Wilsongt]

Fox News is getting boring now. It's the same shit, different day. Obamacare is getting on a roll. Stop already.

Also: New Scandal!

SelfieGate.

 

[Crisco]

So with all the NSA bullshit, and the disastrous ACA rollout, Obama's approval rating is back up to almost 50%? GOP must be fuming, the dude weathered a hell of a storm. This next government shutdown fight will probably put him back into positive numbers.

 

[theprodigy]

So with all the NSA bullshit, and the disastrous ACA rollout, Obama's approval rating is back up to almost 50%? GOP must be fuming, the dude weathered a hell of a storm. This next government shutdown fight will probably put him back into positive numbers.

spoilers: one matters much less than the other

 

[Fox318]

Damn . . . old political cartoons can be so funny.

Get the Cagle Cartoon books they put out during the elections.

 

[B-Dubs]

Of course if this doesn't work, democrats could get blamed for shutting down the government.

They could but they could just as easily spin it as the GOP refusing to help those who haven't been able to find a job. It'd play on an already established narrative so it might be able to take hold.

 

[The Librarian]

They could but they could just as easily spin it as the GOP refusing to help those who haven't been able to find a job. It'd play on an already established narrative so it might be able to take hold.

They can do that just as well, if not better, with a separate vote in the Senate.

 

[speculawyer]

Here ya go. Last Tuesday nearly as many people signed up as in all of October.

Everyone procrastinates. I don't think any of these numbers mean anything until there is some deadline.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I agree that a separate vote would make more sense. I think the senate could pass it, and if it came to the House floor I honestly think it could pass.

 

[teiresias]

To be fair "increased pension contributions! That's just taxes with a different name" works too.

As an aside, I wonder how progressive airline fees are based on usage. I can't imagine federal pension contributions are, but since the participants aren't paying SS payroll taxes maybe it balances out.

This is a common misconception and/or myth perpetuated by right-wingers. Anyone hired into federal service since 1987 is in the more recent FERS (Federal Employee Retirement System) which replaced CSRS (Civil Servant Retirement System, and anyone in CSRS when FERS was established was able to switch to FERS if they so desired).

CSRS participants only get their pension so they, in fact, do not pay into Social Security - but neither do they receive it (this is the main crux of the right-winger play on this myth - that they don't pay into but still receive Social Security, which isn't true).

FERS participants have a smaller pension, but in addition have their TSP accounts (401k essentially), and Social Security, so anyone in this program DOES pay into Social Security, and any new hires since FERS came into effect in 1987 is in FERS and never was eligible to be in the CSRS system.

 

[The Librarian]

Reid is pledging a fight for UI benefits next year.

 

[Wilsongt]

Reid is pledging a fight for UI benefits next year.

Excellent. Reid needs to hold onto his balls as long as possible.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Reid is pledging a fight for UI benefits next year.

Pft he'll probably cave just like he did on the nuclear option

 

[The Librarian]

Pft he'll probably cave just like he did on the nuclear option

why won't reid grow a back bone?!

 

[Wilsongt]

The GOP is still trying to make the Julia thing happen.

Anyone remember Julia? No?

 

[PhoenixDark]

Next year? Well that ruins a lot of people's holidays.

 

[Black Mamba]

Reid is pledging a fight for UI benefits next year.

With what leverage?

You realize what will happen, right? With the benefits cut off. the UE is going to drop because these people will leave the labor force en masse. The GOP will claim LOOK THE UE RATE IS DROPPING. WHAT WE DID WORKS.

Ugh.

 

[The Librarian]

With what leverage?

The same leverage they had when they got it passed last time and didn't shut down the government?

Also, this: https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/410865999814991872

 

[Black Mamba]

The same leverage they had when they got it passed last time and didn't shut down the government?

Also, this: https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/410865999814991872

Wasn't the same scenario. Dems had fiscal cliff in their pocket. Also see my edit.

 

[Sibylus]

@HassanRouhani 7m

Russian FM stated there's no difference between Iran & Russia in interpretation of Geneva Agreement 1/2 #IranTalks

@HassanRouhani 2m

i.e.recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes on its soil. Russia will emphasize this right during negotiations2/2

Oh, and apparently that Syrian rebel supply question is mooted for good. Seems some Islamists decided to steal what the US was having second thoughts of giving freely.

 

[The Librarian]

Wasn't the same scenario. Dems had fiscal cliff in their pocket. Also see my edit.

I was talking about before that with the payroll tax. I can definitely see this playing out much like VAWA.

 

[Black Mamba]

I was talking about before that with the payroll tax. I can definitely see this playing out much like VAWA.

This isn't the same thing at all. There was no actual argument people could understand regarding VAWA. And Dems lost the payroll tax cut this year!

Not true of UE (Rand Paul laid out the argument millions of morons accept).

The GOP wants to cut spending. They won't increase it any more unless it's for their corporate cronies.

Kevin Drum gets this right. Austerity won, the Dems on the whole lost when taking everything into account. http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/12/war-over-austerity-over-republicans-won

UI isn't coming next year. The UE rate will drop as result, GOP will claim victory, masses won't understand the argument, and the GOP House won't do shit any more.

Obama fucked up in 2011 as I always entertained entering that stupid Budget and we're paying for it dearly, now. He assumed the GOP wasn't evil and he was wrong. Obama lost. We lost.

It will be that way until the Dems regain house control.

edit: The only way for UI increase is through a trade. Which will also suck.