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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Democrats obviously shouldn't give up those issues, but I do think they should talk about them differently. Have you seen Sanders speech to Liberty University? It's one of his best, and I think is an incredible example of the way Democrats could and should campaign.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Most of America isn't conservative except in a few issues that the left should drop because they keep getting clobbered by them because they speak to identity issues. Identity politics has been keeping the left down for 30 years or more.

And what issues would those be?
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Again, a Sanders/Trump election showdown would be the greatest in American history. The commercials would be hilarious.
 
B "solves" the other two.

Maybe ? I mean the Supreme Court can overturn its own precedent but generally speaking its reluctant to do so , that well may change as partisanship increases but I don't think it's going to be instant. It also needs a case brought before it to do so and often that case is such that the overturning is somewhat orthogonal to the issue (the VRA strike down was more like blanking the list of states than repealing the act).

And then there's the issue that you need to get your justices confirmed, and there's a traditional veto given to the Senators from the state of the justice too. Retaking the Senate isn't impossible (both turnout and distribution favor the Dems this time around) but it seems unlikely they'd break the 60 votes they need to overcome filibuster. Even if they did they aren't going to be in a position to appoint "very liberal" justices, because a significant part of the Democratic party isn't "very liberal" , so you're not going to get 60 "very liberal" votes.

The most likely case is you get Democratic control but not enough to overcome filibuster. Given that there's likely to be a Republican internal ground war if they lose the presidential election, you might manage to appoint generally leftish candidates despite the GOP having made obstruction into an art form.

The best , even vaguel plausible, case is that you get enough votes to break filibuster, in which case you can get liberal but not very liberal candidates.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Most of America isn't conservative except in a few issues that the left should drop because they keep getting clobbered by them because they speak to identity issues. Identity politics has been keeping the left down for 30 years or more.

have you seen the sea of red on the latest electoral map?
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Again, a Sanders/Trump election showdown would be the greatest in American history. The commercials would be hilarious.

It would truly be the election America deserved. I can think of no greater compliment to the American people.
 

benjipwns

Banned
EDIT: benji, Mitterand was totally powerless as president during '86-88. In cohabitation years, the French president is basically just a figurehead. Really, 1987 was the peak year for the global right, I'd say.
Yeah, but it was only like two years compared to say, Thatcher or Kohl, the Presidential Majority retook the Assembly like you noted in 1988. So it wasn't as big of disaster at the same point in time as it was for Labour, the SPD, Democrats, etc.

The only thing that concerns me is this unidentified man who keeps following the both of them around. Who is he? Maybe he's controlling them all behind the scenes? He keeps appearing in pictures, and showing up at the debates, standing just off to the side, watching Bernie and Hillary. Almost like he's making sure they don't go off script or something. Verrrrrrrry suspicious.
I think the media is covering up a lot about him, they won't even tell us his name.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Yeah, but it was only like two years compared to say, Thatcher or Kohl, the Presidential Majority retook the Assembly like you noted in 1988. So it wasn't as big of disaster at the same point in time as it was for Labour, the SPD, Democrats, etc.

No, this is true, I was just saying that it still did have a significant impact on the 'global right' and the tilt towards neoliberal conceptions of the market and neorealist conceptions of foreign policy that have dominated Western politics since.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Everything you say is true, but also applies to passing those things legislatively. The VRA is the one that could be restored but fixed and updated as soon as Congress got its act together. But restrictions on freedom of the press like or heavier than pre-Citizens United are going to be as hard to get through Congress as "strong left" justices, even a semi-favorable one.
 
have you seen the sea of red on the latest electoral map?

Majoritarian systems flood the map with relatively small swings by design because it gives you stable government, and basically the entire US political process is
majoritarian. You can turn an entire map red in a majoritarian with 50.00000001% of the vote and the right distribution. Also American voters are somewhat weird, they often identify with more conservative ideologies than their actual answers to issue based polling would suggest (names and partisan identification have significant effects).
 

pigeon

Banned
http://www.vox.com/2016/1/12/10749984/hillary-clinton-pander

I encounter this attitude a lot and its frustrating. It amazing how adept the grassroots on both the left and right can expend vast amounts of words and effort criticizing politics for their actions but spend zero time contructing an alternative beyond magical thinking.

The internet has raised voice but the alternate decline in social groups, unions, civic groups has completely elimiated the populous compacity to actually do politics. This whole article is about how clinton hasn't forcefully appoligized enough for her criminal justice policies and hasn't proposed a fix for everything. But offers no attempt at demanding anything of her. She mentions there are "policies" that could end mass incarceration but doesn't list any examples. This isn't how politics works and its frustrating to constantly see people complain complain and complain, and indict every person for their crimes but refuse to really do the work of forcing politicians to act, that's what lobbyist have filled.

I think its a failure of how we teach history. We teach it in terms of inevitability and good hearted politicians that were guided by their good soul instead of the same kind we have now who were guided by the desire to get elected.

This happens on the right too with all their complains about RINOs

I think the demand is actually pretty clear. The writer wants Hillary Clinton to say "I'm complicit in institutional racism and I directly contributed to its development in order to gain political power, and I'm sorry for that." The rest is just trust. If you don't trust a politician, no matter what they say about your personal policy goals, it's always going to sound like lip service.

Obviously I don't think Hillary will say that. I'm not sure she'd even believe that -- the political context of the early 90s was pretty different from today -- but there's probably some truth to it. One of the ways to think about the success of the Southern strategy is that before the 21st century the median American voter was pretty racist. So, you know, any democratically elected national politician during that period probably is complicit in institutional racism, because that's how democracy works. We're currently engaged in an experiment to discover whether that got better or worse.

The reality about trust in any relationship is that, in general, the only way to build it is with actions. So I am somewhat sympathetic to her position, but I don't have a great answer. Even if you don't trust Hillary to be better, you can trust the alternative to be much worse.

So this makes vilifying and blowing-off potential allies a logical and good thing to do then?

This argument's not great! Anybody who could have been an ally but isn't because you were rude to them was never really an ally. The point of being an ally is that you agree on the cause, so you really shouldn't need a lot of babying and support to fight for the cause -- if you're interested in it presumably you'll do the work yourself.

I think it's probably correct for radical PoC activists to complain that Hillary's complicit in advancing white supremacy. Once again, remember that science has proven that calling stuff racist makes it less popular! They should probably be saying the same thing about everybody in Congress, including the PoC there, but that would, you know, dilute the message.

That said, they should probably argue very strongly that they don't trust Hillary and won't vote for her and then vote for her anyway. It helps if they lie to pollsters the entire time about their intentions. Much like running a central bank, when your messages are also actions and your actions are also messages, it becomes complicated to plan your day.

If politician knows, without a doubt, they have your vote, then they don't have to work for you. You have no leverage over them. There always has to be the threat you could vote for someone else. Whether you carry through with that threat is another thing, but the threat has to be believed.

This argument, on the other hand, is just the madman theory of negotiation. Which unfortunately has been getting a workout when we're talking about the American political system recently. It isn't, like, wrong, but it's also kind of risky, especially given that your leverage as a voter is only one vote wide in the first place. Madman negotiating works better when you have a bomb, not just a gun pointed at your own head.

Most of America isn't conservative except in a few issues that the left should drop because they keep getting clobbered by them because they speak to identity issues. Identity politics has been keeping the left down for 30 years or more.

I'm so tired of hearing the phrase "identity politics." This is the 21st century expression of white male supremacy (along with "outrage culture"). If one party wants to invalidate my identity, it seems pretty reasonable to vote against them.
 
And what issues would those be?
Guns. You could win back the Midwest (in the upcoming generation) if you laid off the gun issue. It looks like government overreach. The other problem is making BLM more universally relevant for whites. The biggest gains here could be made with worker ownership and management, but barring that, there has to be a righteousness tone-down. I'm not talking about morality, I'm talking about practicality. Focus on the outrageous phone call costs for prisoners and accentuate how it affects the families of the convicts. Every family in the lower middle class has a family member who is involved in the prison system or the drug war. Every single one.

Talk sensibly about these issues. Avoid sensitive pressure points. A lot of whites feel guilty about racial injustice but have no legitimate avenue by which to participate meaningfully. That means that they hew to defensiveness and willful denial. Provide an easy option for them to do the right thing. Gay rights can procede as it is because it's just the death rattle on the right that makes a lot of noise but can't do anything about it. Like prisons/drugs, it touches everyone. Race relations is harder because of history and entrenched (and warranted) mistrust. Stop advancing tokenism. It doesn't change the system and it pisses off working class whites.

Again, much of this is unpalatable from a strictly moral perspective, but it's necessary to bridge the gap in the working class. Start with the shit that everyone agrees needs fixing. Advocate for community controlled policing. I'm from the UP - very few minorities but lots of working poor whites victimized by lack of direct involvement in policing policies. Counteract by increasing funding for processes instead of equipment. White people love the police.

Score points by lambasting obvious dumb-fuckery like the Oregon 'freedom' fighters. The community involved already hates them.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Guns. You could win back the Midwest (in the upcoming generation) if you laid off the gun issue. It looks like government overreach.

There's no laying off the gun issue. The guns killing my friends and neighbors are coming from those rural states with lax gun laws. More toddlers die to guns in a given year than cops, it's not an issue you can lay off. You probably don't live in a big city or have never been affected by gun violence yourself. That shit can be stopped and doing nothing is idiotic and just plain dumb. You're putting your own ideology above people's lives.
 
The closest is maybe...
1979 - UK - Thatcher becomes PM
1980 - US - Reagan wins Presidency, GOP wins Senate
1982 - GER - Kohl becomes Chancellor
1983 - UK - Thatcher gets almost 400 seats in the House of Commons
1984 - CAN - Mulroney gains 111 seats and 50% of the vote for 211/282 seats.
1984 - US - Reagan landslide.
1986 - FRA - "Right" takes National Assembly, Le Pen gains 35 seats (as many as Communists) though it didn't last long, and Mitterand was President the entire time.

The other could be:
1952 - US - Eisenhower landslide, GOP takes control of Senate and House.
1953 - GER - Adenauer gets 45% of the vote, +105 seats
1955 - UK - Tories win 50% of the vote and 345 seats.
1956 - US - Eisenhower re-election landslide.
1957 - GER - Adenauer adds another 28 seats for absolute majority in Bundestag
1957 - CAN - PC's sweep to power.
1958 - FRA - de Gaulle sweep, Communists and SFIO lose a combined 195 seats.
1958 - CAN - PC's gain 97 seats, 54% of the vote and 208/265 seats.
1959 - UK - Tories bump up to 365 seats.

France is always the outlier it seems, going the other way, refusing to cooperate with the rest of the Western nations, like usual.

*Cough* Australia elected the Centre-Left Labor party in 83 and stuck with them through to 96. We'd had the centre-right party from 75 prior to that. We were well and truly on the right wing train for the entire 50s though (got on in 39 and didn't get off till 72). As a result our centre-left party was in many ways the driving force of embracing neoliberal economics. We're a weird country. *Cough*
 

PBY

Banned
There's no laying off the gun issue. The guns killing my friends and neighbors are coming from those rural states with lax gun laws. More toddlers die to guns in a given year than cops, it's not an issue you can lay off. You probably don't live in a big city or have never been affected by gun violence yourself. That shit can be stopped and doing nothing is idiotic and just plain dumb.

Yeah, this.
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Again, a Sanders/Trump election showdown would be the greatest in American history. The commercials would be hilarious.
I agree. The result would determine the direction the country is heading.
Reminder for all. Human Becoming is from NH and claimed the NH Primary Thread.
I'm still not entirely sure how I want to do it. Informative would be fun but most people wouldn't care.
 

Arkeband

Banned
The only thing that concerns me is this unidentified man who keeps following the both of them around. Who is he? Maybe he's controlling them all behind the scenes? He keeps appearing in pictures, and showing up at the debates, standing just off to the side, watching Bernie and Hillary. Almost like he's making sure they don't go off script or something. Verrrrrrrry suspicious.

I'm gonna need receipts on this.
 
Guns. You could win back the Midwest (in the upcoming generation) if you laid off the gun issue. It looks like government overreach. The other problem is making BLM more universally relevant for whites. The biggest gains here could be made with worker ownership and management, but barring that, there has to be a righteousness tone-down. I'm not talking about morality, I'm talking about practicality. Focus on the outrageous phone call costs for prisoners and accentuate how it affects the families of the convicts. Every family in the lower middle class has a family member who is involved in the prison system or the drug war. Every single one.

Talk sensibly about these issues. Avoid sensitive pressure points. A lot of whites feel guilty about racial injustice but have no legitimate avenue by which to participate meaningfully. That means that they hew to defensiveness and willful denial. Provide an easy option for them to do the right thing. Gay rights can procede as it is because it's just the death rattle on the right that makes a lot of noise but can't do anything about it. Like prisons/drugs, it touches everyone. Race relations is harder because of history and entrenched (and warranted) mistrust. Stop advancing tokenism. It doesn't change the system and it pisses off working class whites.

Again, much of this is unpalatable from a strictly moral perspective, but it's necessary to bridge the gap in the working class. Start with the shit that everyone agrees needs fixing. Advocate for community controlled policing. I'm from the UP - very few minorities but lots of working poor whites victimized by lack of direct involvement in policing policies. Counteract by increasing funding for processes instead of equipment. White people love the police.

Score points by lambasting obvious dumb-fuckery like the Oregon 'freedom' fighters. The community involved already hates them.
So you're saying we should compromise our values to get elected
 

benjipwns

Banned
*Cough* Australia elected the Centre-Left Labor party in 83 and stuck with them through to 96. We'd had the centre-right party from 75 prior to that. We were well and truly on the right wing train for the entire 50s though (got on in 39 and didn't get off till 72). As a result our centre-left party was in many ways the driving force of embracing neoliberal economics. We're a weird country. *Cough*
No, you're just in the Southern Hemisphere so everything is upside down.

At least your Liberal party kept its name.

The Social Democrats in Sweden and Liberals in Canada are two other examples of the "left" parties being the ones to deregulate and cut spending, roll back the welfare state, move towards a more liberal economics, etc.
 
There's no laying off the gun issue. The guns killing my friends and neighbors are coming from those rural states with lax gun laws. More toddlers die to guns in a given year than cops, it's not an issue you can lay off. You probably don't live in a big city or have never been affected by gun violence yourself. That shit can be stopped and doing nothing is idiotic and just plain dumb. You're putting your own ideology above people's lives.
I grew up with an alcoholic father that threatened to kill himself at least every two weeks with a .357 magnum pistol. Sometimes he would point it at his head and ask my brother and me to give him a reason not to pull the trigger.

You don't know me.

My point still stands. The white working class feels completely powerless and pushing gun control hits psychological pressure points you may not understand.
 

Makai

Member
Again, a Sanders/Trump election showdown would be the greatest in American history. The commercials would be hilarious.
Not if Bernie insists on focusing on the issues in the general. Hillary/Trump would be more fun because I know she wouldn't pull punches.
 

CCS

Banned
The closest is maybe...
1979 - UK - Thatcher becomes PM
1980 - US - Reagan wins Presidency, GOP wins Senate
1982 - GER - Kohl becomes Chancellor
1983 - UK - Thatcher gets almost 400 seats in the House of Commons
1984 - CAN - Mulroney gains 111 seats and 50% of the vote for 211/282 seats.
1984 - US - Reagan landslide.
1986 - FRA - "Right" takes National Assembly, Le Pen gains 35 seats (as many as Communists) though it didn't last long, and Mitterand was President the entire time.

The other could be:
1952 - US - Eisenhower landslide, GOP takes control of Senate and House.
1953 - GER - Adenauer gets 45% of the vote, +105 seats
1955 - UK - Tories win 50% of the vote and 345 seats.
1956 - US - Eisenhower re-election landslide.
1957 - GER - Adenauer adds another 28 seats for absolute majority in Bundestag
1957 - CAN - PC's sweep to power.
1958 - FRA - de Gaulle sweep, Communists and SFIO lose a combined 195 seats.
1958 - CAN - PC's gain 97 seats, 54% of the vote and 208/265 seats.
1959 - UK - Tories bump up to 365 seats.

France is always the outlier it seems, going the other way, refusing to cooperate with the rest of the Western nations, like usual.

That's interesting, thank you :)
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
In general, Australian politics is an inverse British politics. Cameron/Turnbull is the first time we've synched in ages and I'm not sure how long it will last.
 
You're being generous there. (Bill) Clinton's entire campaign thing was Third Way Centrism , beyond team colors you'd have a hard time calling his first term a major win for the left. Clinton was very mixed even in the beginning. Better for the left than Bush Sr ? Sure but that's not a metric for winning.

Bill Clinton, my gateway drug to liberalism.

I was somewhat conservative as a teen, and while a lot of that was gone by my mid-twenties, Clinton appealed to what remained of it.
 
I'm so tired of hearing the phrase "identity politics." This is the 21st century expression of white male supremacy (along with "outrage culture"). If one party wants to invalidate my identity, it seems pretty reasonable to vote against them.
You hide in your hole (to which they have no access and with which they have no prior alliances), and they hide in theirs. They have the advantage in every way.

We can't expect them to extend themselves to you and your group. There's high risk on their side and it requires reliance on basic decency. I suspect that you have basic decency but I don't assume that they do. Therefore, I ask you to carry the burden of being the better man or woman because I have no faith that they are capable of being the better man or woman and they have deep incentives to ignore your issues if you don't link them to their issues.

I can appeal to your decency because I'm pretty confident that you have it. An entrenched majority, attacked by the system of capitalism and set upon you as a scapegoat for those failings? I don't have any confidence that any other appeal beyond their own self-interest will be effective. Maybe through working together basic commonalities and working class consciousness can be built. Without it, you ask for what looks like special privileges and they retreat to their ancestral holes without ever having to consider your humanity.
 
Is someone going to make a Final SOTU thread? I'm looking for it in OT but not finding anything.

Not that I have anything great to add...I've made all of three threads in my entire time here at GAF (EDIT: Holy shit, looks like I've made seven!) but only one of them is the caliber you all would be looking for.
 

benjipwns

Banned
I think we can tie two points here together, disastermouse's and APKmetsfans' earlier.

Support for gay marriage immediately was very tepid from even progressive national political elites. Elites had to decide the issue because that's the way our system is setup, but it was a grassroots fight on both sides that turned it into an actual issue and then led to the elite decision making.

Guns isn't one where the progressive view is dominant or even 50/50 for the time being, especially elites pushing it in dismissive and disingenuous ways. It might be in eight years or twelve years. We went from 2004's sweeping gay marriage bans to the Supreme Court decision in a short period of time while political elites led from behind.

Immigration is another issue the elites are being pushed against hard and that emboldens the ones willing to fight, not the ones on the fence or generally accepting.

Attacking "borders/language/culture" makes people extra defensive. People don't tend to think of economic issues this way, which is why large majorities are more open to progressive ideas on that front. But the same union base that wants higher minimum wages, etc. also wants their gun culture preserved and immigrants thrown out into the cold with no coat.

It's not about abandoning or sacrificing anything, it's about prioritizing. Neither parties has been good at this because they're obsessed with MESSAGING (since their ideas/policy proposals/strategies are perfect), that's why their bases don't like them.

Well, okay, that's why the GOP base doesn't like them. The Democratic base is in love with Debbie Hammertime Schultz.
 
Is someone going to make a Final SOTU thread? I'm looking for it in OT but not finding anything.

Not that I have anything great to add...I've made all of three threads in my entire time here at GAF (EDIT: Holy shit, looks like I've made seven!) but only one of them is the caliber you all would be looking for.
There is now!
 

dramatis

Member
Vox suggests that the new Kentucky governor is quietly NOT getting rid of Obamacare
During his campaign, Bevin promised to kill off the state's Obamacare Medicaid expansion immediately.

"Absolutely. No question about it. I would reverse that immediately," Bevin said in February.

But since getting sworn in this past December, his tune has changed — a lot.

Instead, he quietly announced (right between Christmas and New Year's) that he would look at ways to "transform the way Medicaid is delivered." Changing delivery of the program is a whole lot different from eliminating it.
Bevin is giving up flexibility in how the state runs the marketplace. Right now, for example, Healthcare.gov lets any insurers who meet a checklist of requirements sell coverage. But Kentucky works differently: It selects a handful of insurers that it thinks will offer the best deal to shoppers. This is meant to stimulate competition, as all the carriers in Kentucky have to try to convince Kynect officials they should get one of the coveted spots.

With the transition back to Healthcare.gov, Kentucky won't be able to do that anymore.
He's giving control of the program back to the feds lmao
 
This argument's not great! Anybody who could have been an ally but isn't because you were rude to them was never really an ally. The point of being an ally is that you agree on the cause, so you really shouldn't need a lot of babying and support to fight for the cause -- if you're interested in it presumably you'll do the work yourself.

This isn't really true. I'm an "ally" to some of your causes in the sense I'm happy to support them , while they in turn support me but I have no personal stake in those outcomes. Likewise there's areas where we're probably closer than that, where we both actually agree. And there's almost certainly areas where we disagree . If you're a jackass to me I'll probably retaliate by intensifying the 3rd group, dropping the 1st and maintaining my position on the 2nd And you'd probably respond in kind. And then we'd split even though we'd probably end up still being allies sometimes because of the 2nd group.

That's how coalitions and major political parties work. They sow together groups with overlapping interests and do their best to smooth things out where there's disagreement.


This argument, on the other hand, is just the madman theory of negotiation. Which unfortunately has been getting a workout when we're talking about the American political system recently. It isn't, like, wrong, but it's also kind of risky, especially given that your leverage as a voter is only one vote wide in the first place. Madman negotiating works better when you have a bomb, not just a gun pointed at your own head.

Your vote is the greatest tool you have for leveraging a politician unless you're the type of person who can spend lobbyist type campaign financing money. And the argument isn't in the context of individuals with 1 vote , it's in the context of those disaffected with centrists selling the furniture to win the centrist vote.

I'm so tired of hearing the phrase "identity politics." This is the 21st century expression of white male supremacy (along with "outrage culture"). If one party wants to invalidate my identity, it seems pretty reasonable to vote against them.

Yes, it's entirely reasonable for you to vote against them. Likewise it's reasonable for working class whites to vote against your interests, when they clash with theirs, unless you offer them something. They aren't in this for your revolution. They are in this for the economic policies that helped them that centre-left parties used to provide and have largely abandoned , which means that the centre-left doesn't offer them much at all.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Is someone going to make a Final SOTU thread? I'm looking for it in OT but not finding anything.

Not that I have anything great to add...I've made all of three threads in my entire time here at GAF (EDIT: Holy shit, looks like I've made seven!) but only one of them is the caliber you all would be looking for.

I'm putting it up in a little bit.
 
I'm gonna need receipts on this.

CTE7TCsXAAAyPT1.png


It's like he's coaching them on what talking points to say. Controlling the primary entirely from the shadows. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being President in two years, no matter who ends up winning the election. He's shady af.
 
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