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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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Drakeon

Member
I disagree. I think it's a huge issue for the far-right evangelicals, who Cruz seems to attract.

Why would they flock to Trump of all people? This makes no sense, is Trump even against Gay Marriage?

If anything, they'd flock back to Carson or some other evangelical like Huckabee.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I disagree. I think it's a huge issue for the far-right evangelicals, who Cruz seems to attract.

So they will go to the guy who has been married 3 times and also DGAF about gay marriage?

they're certainly not going to stay home. all evangelicals DO in primaries is vote.

Carson's done and Huckabee is a nonissue.

Politico total.
 
Why would they flock to Trump of all people? This makes no sense, is Trump even against Gay Marriage?

If anything, they'd flock back to Carson or some other evangelical like Huckabee.
Because it's a question of authenticity. It will play to Trump's outsider strengths and the image of duplicituous DC politicians. At least Trump is being honest with them.

But I doubt the Evangelical Iowa voters will flock to Trump. I really do think they will ride or die with Cruz.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I find it hard to believe someone could think Cruz less authentic than Trump really. Trump's a democrat.
 
Why would anyone care about what politico says?

Like, not even two weeks ago they were balls deep in that "Clinton goes for the jugular after data breach" nonsense. Fuck them. Not worthy of the benefit of the doubt.

iirc there's a damn phenomenon where one is inclined to continue trusting news after they fuck up time and time again, but the name escapes me.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I'm thinking about moving to NYC and looking for work when I get there. How crazy does this sound?

8.5 million somehow find a way to get by there, so I'm sure you can too. You probably already know all the pros and cons, so if you really want to take the leap, I say take it. It would suck if it doesn't work out, but I'm sure you're young enough to leave and rebuild if needed. A big part of life is taking chances.

I'd only recommend to have a very solid plan for employment you are confident in, if only so you know what sort of salary to expect to figure out how much rent you can afford.

Personally, there was once a time I thought about it, but I'm extremely happy I didn't go. I love life without money stress. There might be less cool stuff to do around smaller cities, but it doesn't matter how much cool stuff a city has if you can't find the time or money to experience any of it. But just by making that post, you sound more set on it than I ever was, so it's a matter of opinion.
 
Apparently my father saw Dan Malloy at the grocery store today and told him to go screw himself. Merry Christmas!!!!!!

your father seems
1.0
 

ivysaur12

Banned
oh no i came back into this hillary thread again someone tell me to stop posting i can't stop i have things to do today

He and like 80% of Connecticutians* tbh


*or if you want to use the term Nutmegger which is dumb IMO.

On some level, I get it -- Dan Malloy isn't a great governor. He's okay on a lot progressive pet issues, but is kind of a bully and has a pretty acrimonious relationship with the state Congress and a weird relationship with the business community.

I think the problem for my dad is that he's not a very good businessman, and his business plan for what he does is based on a 1995 model of how economies worked. That's not how it works, and he hasn't really adapted. He can blame Malloy all he wants, but slight tax breaks (????) from a hypothetical Republican governor wouldn't do anything else to help him.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Politico says they have a secret tape of Cruz where he said repealing gay marriage will not be a top priority for him if elected president.

Wonder how that will play in Iowa.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/ted-cruz-gay-marriage-secret-audio-217090

Listening to the tape, he clearly is saying that the gay marriage issue is a top priority for him. He was just sticking to the standard republican framing that it's about the constitution and legislating from the bench and religious freedom instead of specifically "fighting gay marriage".
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Why in the world would Politico drop this when no one is following any election coverage? They effectively buried it.

It's a clickbait non-story. The only thing they're burying is their shoddy journalism.
 

Iolo

Member
Listening to the tape, he clearly is saying that the gay marriage issue is a top priority for him. He was just sticking to the standard republican framing that it's about the constitution and legislating from the bench and religious freedom instead of specifically "fighting gay marriage".

I read on Twitter that he said the exact same thing in public ... so non-story to the max.
 
My lease ends in a week.

I have about $11k saved. Brooklyn apartments look comparable to what I'm paying now.

Do you have a lot of experience? or know people or prepared for like 2 months of shitty interviews?

If your prepared to burn that its not that bad. If your single you can swing a room with roommates in a nice area for 1000. Nows actually a good time because prices dip in the winter
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Do you have a lot of experience? or know people or prepared for like 2 months of shitty interviews?

If your prepared to burn that its not that bad. If your single you can swing a room with roommates in a nice area for 1000. Nows actually a good time because prices dip in the winter

Yea, if you want to move here it's best to have some kind of lead on a job already.
 
Yea, if you want to move here it's best to have some kind of lead on a job already.

Once your here its pretty easy to hop around (unless you burn bridges)

but breaking in is hard.

I'm super lucky. I literally applied to a job online got flew up and got the job. No connections at all. The place I work for is super hard to make it too. I feel really blessed
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Once your here its pretty easy to hop around (unless you burn bridges)

but breaking in is hard.

I'm super lucky. I literally applied to a job online got flew up and got the job. No connections at all. The place I work for is super hard to make it too. I feel really blessed

Wow, that is lucky.
 
My lease ends in a week.

I have about $11k saved. Brooklyn apartments look comparable to what I'm paying now.

If you're okay burning through your savings I think you'll be fine. Just focus on getting any job when you first get here. Bartend, wait tables, whatever. Just some source of income while you're looking for something better. It's well known how expensive NYC is, but it doesn't really hit you until you do that first big grocery trip.
 
oh no i came back into this hillary thread again someone tell me to stop posting i can't stop i have things to do today



On some level, I get it -- Dan Malloy isn't a great governor. He's okay on a lot progressive pet issues, but is kind of a bully and has a pretty acrimonious relationship with the state Congress and a weird relationship with the business community.



I think the problem for my dad is that he's not a very good businessman, and his business plan for what he does is based on a 1995 model of how economies worked. That's not how it works, and he hasn't really adapted. He can blame Malloy all he wants, but slight tax breaks (????) from a hypothetical Republican governor wouldn't do anything else to help him.
I like Malloy due to his burning hatred of Chris Christie alone.
 
U inspiring me rite now metsfan
*pulls back covers, rubs crusty eyelids, crawls out of bed at 1:21 pm*
t's well known how expensive NYC is, but it doesn't really hit you until you do that first big grocery trip.
Its not like we dont have cheap garbage to eat here, if you're about that struggle lifestyle
 
Daniel B, you do know that the Quinnipiac poll you showed Sanders doing better than Clinton against Trump,has him doing worse against Rubio and Cruz than Clinton does?

In other words, general election polls are meaningless before the general election even begins. Especially when one candidate is constantly being attacked by Republicans 24/7 and the other is... let's just say I doubt all Republican candidates can even pick him out in a crowd.

Shhhh! Trump's our huckleberry ;) (man, that reminds me; I need to keep an eye out for a great deal on a Tombstone blu-ray, which is worth it for Val Kilmer's awesome Doc Holliday portrayal, alone). The other matchups were within the margin of error, of 4.5% percentage points.

You have to be pulling my leg, on how much political ammunition the GOP candidates would have against each candidate, in the GE. To spell it out, is there anything in Bernie's exemplary, decades long career, they could use against him? Zip! Nada! Now, Hillary, on the othe hand, well... And, on policy, a significant majority of the population is in favor of Bernie's policies.

I thought Brent Budowsky, The Hill columnist made a great point:

Brent Budowsky said:
If this margin held in a general election, Democrats would almost certainly regain control of the United States Senate and very possibly the House of Representatives

I think Bernie has the "political revolution" thing slightly wrong; we can bring about a political revolution, by simply voting, in "huge" (a Bernie favorite) numbers, and if we could reclaim both houses, with commanding majorities, then Bernie could get on with the hard work, of making his policies a reality. If he then got some resistance, from Democratic Senators and Representatives, on a policy that the general population is overwhelmingly in favor of, then sure, we totally have his back.

Assuming Trump is for real, and he wouldn't effectively allow Hillary to coast to an easy win; given the polls, I don't see Hillary achieving anything like as significant a victory, so she, like Obana, would have her hands tied by the GOP, and it would be politics as usual, for, at least, another four years...
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Why would they flock to Trump of all people? This makes no sense, is Trump even against Gay Marriage?

If anything, they'd flock back to Carson or some other evangelical like Huckabee.

So they will go to the guy who has been married 3 times and also DGAF about gay marriage?

they're certainly not going to stay home. all evangelicals DO in primaries is vote.

Carson's done and Huckabee is a nonissue.

Politico total.

Please explain to me where I ever implied they'd flock to Trump. I never said anything close.

If anything, they'd probably evenly disperse among the candidates.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Please explain to me where I ever implied they'd flock to Trump. I never said anything close.

That is the only scenario in which it is not a non-issue as he is the only other candidate contending for Iowa currently.

If anything, they'd probably evenly disperse among the candidates.

Great, so net effect is that Trump is helped. Hence my response about Trump!

Politico is a dumpster fire.

They dumped this "revelation" of theirs on Christmas Eve for a reason.
 
I know this may come as a shock, I really do. But Bill and Hillary Clinton have been contributing to the Democratic party for 40+ years. With NGP VAN being a Democratic only company, it would be shocking if they didn't have connections to people within that and every other Democratic organization. You know.....because they're Democrats. Not Independents who are pretending to be Democrats, in part, to gain access to the data contained within NGP VAN.

Also, I would love for you to explain what Hillary's campaign did wrong in relation to the data breach. SHE had HER data stolen. No one from her campaign did anything wrong. Bernie had to fire a dude and suspend several others. The public does not care about nuance on positions. The headlines are Bernie's campaign got caught, someone was fired. That is the extent of the data that has reached the public.

Next, Emerson College's polls are rated a C+ according to 538. Rasumussen is rated a C.

As to that CNN poll, I hope you read the interesting part where Hillary started gaining on Bernie after the debate and post datagate. He (again) lost steam after that.

But, please, delve into the CNN numbers a bit more.

Hillary has the right experience to be President? 89% Agree, 11% disagree.
Bernie has the right experience to be President? 62% Agree, 37% disagree.

Would be proud to have Hillary as President? 76/24
Would be proud to have Bernie as President? 63/36

Also, Sanders has lost ground on who can best handle ISIS and foreign policy.

General Election numbers are completely irrelevant until we know who the nominees are actually going to be. Of course, recent polls show Bernie doing worse against Cruz and Rubio, but I'm sure that's easily explained away by oligarchy and the corporate media (that after 30 years of hating her, has suddenly decided Yaaaas Queen Hillary, yaaaaaasss)

That's funny, Chris Cuomo didn't mention Hillary's supposed bump, from the debate, in his interview with Bernie, and I think someone's stocking is going to be a little light, this Christmas ;):

Chris Cuomo; CNN "New Day" 12/23/15 said:
The Santa Claus of political polls has brought you a gift; the highest number you've reached, so far, in the new CNN poll, 34%, Hillary down eight, you up four"



Oh, and you appear to have left out Hillary's lousy numbers, against the Republicans, so in the interests of full disclosure (Bernie's numbers were too hot for publication) ;):

CNN said:
The poll, however, suggests Clinton faces a stiff challenge from each of three Republicans at the top of the field. She narrowly tops Donald Trump within the poll's margin of sampling error, 49% to 47%, in a hypothetical general election matchup. But she falls behind Ted Cruz by 2 points (Cruz 48% to Clinton 46%, a shift since last month when Cruz trailed Clinton 50% to 47%) and 3 points behind Marco Rubio (49% Rubio to 46% Clinton). Among independent voters, Clinton trails Rubio and Cruz by 12 points each, while running even with Trump
 
Well, this is...peculiar.

Jacobin puts up an article that goes: What Really Happened With the DNC’s “Datagate”? The definitive explanation of the Democratic National Committee’s “Datagate” scandal and what the mainstream media got wrong.

Which obv means fundie shite, right? I mean, "definitive explanation", "mainstream media". #triggered.

But then... Björn Westergard is a socialist in Washington, DC who has written software for the political, on-demand delivery, and logistics markets. Which goes with
I was a software developer for NGP VAN from the summer of 2011 through the spring of 2015, having first heard of the company as a volunteer in the 2008 Obama primary campaign. While at NGP VAN, I contributed to a system for which the scores at the center of this dispute can be loaded into the voter file. The Voter Activation Network (“the VAN”), which the DNC brands as “VoteBuilder,” is also employed by foreign political parties, the AFL-CIO, NGOs, and — perhaps surprisingly — Uber.

And from there it goes into the technicalities of the system. How it works, what its limits are, the works. Then continues on to compare what the camps said, what the media said, and the realities of the system. This is no attempt to excuse sanders camp at all costs.

Anyway, dude is also answering questions on ye Facebooks. It's worth a read.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Daniel B·;190354277 said:
Oh, and you appear to have left out Hillary's lousy numbers, against the Republicans, so in the interests of full disclosure (Bernie's numbers were too hot for publication) ;):

It's already been explained to you that general election numbers are fairly useless this far out.
 

Makai

Member
Do you have a lot of experience? or know people or prepared for like 2 months of shitty interviews?

If your prepared to burn that its not that bad. If your single you can swing a room with roommates in a nice area for 1000. Nows actually a good time because prices dip in the winter
Programmer with about 1.5 years professional experience. I'm sure I can find a job within two months and my savings should last longer than that.

8.5 million somehow find a way to get by there, so I'm sure you can too. You probably already know all the pros and cons, so if you really want to take the leap, I say take it. It would suck if it doesn't work out, but I'm sure you're young enough to leave and rebuild if needed. A big part of life is taking chances.

I'd only recommend to have a very solid plan for employment you are confident in, if only so you know what sort of salary to expect to figure out how much rent you can afford.

Personally, there was once a time I thought about it, but I'm extremely happy I didn't go. I love life without money stress. There might be less cool stuff to do around smaller cities, but it doesn't matter how much cool stuff a city has if you can't find the time or money to experience any of it. But just by making that post, you sound more set on it than I ever was, so it's a matter of opinion.
I've wanted to live in a big city for most of my life and I should probably break in while I'm young. It doesn't feel too risky because I live in an expensive area with few software jobs. I was just offered an apartment in Brooklyn for exactly what I pay now. It's also furnished and has no lease period, which makes things easier.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Looks like the Fox January debate will finally begin to narrow things down.
https://variety.com/2015/tv/news/gop-debate-fox-business-news-criteria-january-14-1201666926/

Which obviously begs the question, will Jeb make it?

They basically put the requirement exactly at where Jeb is. If they did top 5 national, or top 4 Iowa/NH, Jeb would be in trouble, but with these requirements he's definitely in. I bet if Jeb was doing better, they'd have made the requirements stricter.

Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Bush, and Christie are all a lock, but Kasich might get top five in New Hampshire, and Rand or Fiorina could get top 6 nationally, so this could still be an 8 person debate.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I want Christie out. So I need bush and Rubio to start doing better in NH. What will bush do after a 5th place finish in nh?
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I want Christie out. So I need bush and Rubio to start doing better in NH. What will bush do after a 5th place finish in nh?

Bush is probably stepping out and endorsing Rubio immediately after Rubio places in front of him in NH, and visa versa if Rubio somehow places behind Bush.

Though I don't what would happen if Rubio and Bush are 4th and 5th in New Hampshire. They'd almost have to choose to put their support behind Cruz.
 
Bush is probably stepping out and endorsing Rubio immediately after Rubio places in front of him in NH, and visa versa if Rubio somehow places behind Bush.

Though I don't what would happen if Rubio and Bush are 4th and 5th in New Hampshire. They'd almost have to choose to put their support behind Cruz.

With all the bad blood between those two campaigns, I don't see an endorsement from either coming that quickly.
 
Gretta: "Did you catch the Democratic debate"

Marco: "I couldn't tell if it was a debate or a SNL skit."

zingo
This dude has a scripted line ready to roll out for everything. Never seen a such manufactured politician in my life, although people say Reagan was another.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
@realDonaldTrump
Poor @JebBush spent $50 million on his campaign, I spent almost nothing. He's bottom (and gone), I'm top (by a lot). That's what U.S. needs!

Bottom shaming smdh

@realDonaldTrump
In the ridiculous @JebBush ad about me, Jeb is speaking to me during the debate, but doesn't allow my answer, which destroys him - SO SAD!

@realDonaldTrump
Wow, even lowly Rand Paul has just past @JebBush in the new @CNN Poll. Jeb is at 3%, I'm at 39%. Stop throwing your money down the drain!
 
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