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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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U

User 463088

Banned
Daniel B·;190282127 said:
i5p4aQe.jpg


So, if Hillary were to graciously step aside ;), Bernie has this covered :).
Click to expand...

I don't know why I do this to myself....

But this is some selective poll reading if I ever saw it. I mean, legitimately, this is amazing. I have to commend you for making this chart. I really do, because....wow.

Okay, let's start with the fact that you ignored the top line numbers.

Hillary 61%
Bernie 30%

So that's a 31 point lead for Hilldawg.

I think with the list of bottom numbers you're trying to say that the most important issue for Dem voters is the economy. Democrats and Democrat leaning independents say, by an overwhelming majority, that Hillary is better than Bernie on that issue.

Hillary 58%
Bernie 33%

She also destroys him among right experience ( 82/12! Holy hell that's bad...) Strong Leader (69/21) and Cares About People Like you (57/34). If you scroll further down, you'll see that Dems/Dem leaners say the MOST important thing in deciding who they will support is "Someone who cares about needs" a demographic Hillary is leading by 23 points. Strong leadership comes in 3rd, where she leads him by 48). Right Experience is tied for 3rd most important, and that's where she leads him by 70 points).

And there is no universe in which Bernie being this unknown is still a good thing. He has had, what, eight months now to get his name out there. No one is tuning in until January, at which point we're 30 days from the first caucus.

He has had the money to become known. He's had the 3 debates. People may not know him because they simply don't care or need to. As the unknown in the race, it was his job to get his name out there. Is poorly run campaign is at fault for that. His unknowns are not a good thing.
 
M

Maledict

Member
Daniel B·;190277259 said:
QzGOxoB.jpg


Bgodi0c.jpg


OMG; I didn't know they actually sponsored Hillary's frigin bus!

This is like supplying Bernie's campaign with a NUCLEAR power source :).

I should add that, not only is CEO of NGP VAN, Stu Tevelyan, close friends with the Clintons, the company was founded by Nathaniel Pearlman, who was the chief technical officer on her 2008 campaign and setup the now infamous email server, when she was Secretary of State...
Click to expand...

I'm not sure how the fact they sponsor her bus is important, unless it's another way for Bernies campaign to steal data worth millions of dollars and then lie to everyone about it?
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Sea Manky said:
In that thread Jack Remington linked this superb essay.

After the Benghazi hearing, I switched my primary vote from Bernie to Hillary for exactly this reason, and the author of the piece expresses it far better than I ever could.
Click to expand...
The tumblr post basically outlines an academically studied "double bind" for women leaders that needs to be carefully navigated. It's why there not being overt sexism against a woman candidate doesn't mean that gender isn't an impact on the race, and/or that people's "dislike" may derive from a failure to adhere to gender normative expectations while trying to meet the image of what makes a "leader."
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
I don't really get the idea about Star Wars references being pandering to "young people" when they weren't even alive when the original trilogy came out and Harrison Ford is like Sanders' age.
 
Hexa

Hexa

Member
Looks like GOPe aren't going to manage anything in NH. So Iowa is what Trump needs to work hard to pull off.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...ans-are-blowing-their-chance-in-new-hampshire

Also Colbert had some interesting things to say about Trump:
"There's a populism to Trump that I found very appealing," Colbert said. "The party elders would like him to go away but the people have decided that he is not going to. I may disagree with anything that he's saying and think that his proposals are a little ... well, more than a little shocking. But there is something really hopeful about the fact that, well, 36 percent of the likely voters want him so the people in the machine don't get to say otherwise. That's the one saving grace, I think, of his candidacy."
Click to expand...
As 2016 approaches and Trump's GOP lead continues to swell, Colbert also confessed that his earlier boast that there was no way Trump could ever win the White House was shortsighted. "What I do respect is that he knows that it is an emotional appeal, and it might be emotional appeals that I can't respect, but he knows that you have to appeal to the voter. And that's why, I may be wrong - I made a big deal about there's no way he's gonna win," Colbert said before conceding, "I don't know anything about politics."
Click to expand...

http://www.rollingstone.com/tv/news/stephen-colbert-donald-trumps-populism-very-appealing-20151223
 
M

Maledict

Member
What I love is how every thread in the main forum is, at the same time full of insults and shit flung at Clinton by drive by posters AND at the same time apparently GAF worships Clinton and hates Sander. The cognitive dissonance going on there is something to be seen.

Maybe Sander's fans would feel less upset about the tone if the majority of comments about Clinton weren't a collection from 'inhuman, robot, fake, pandering, republican, liar'?
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Cheebo said:
Obama had like 49% of the vote for the first day or so after the election. It got bumped up once everything was 100% counted.
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Right when the election was called, Obama was trailing Romney in the national popular vote. This of course happened before any votes from California were counted, even though its electoral votes had already been added to Obama's corner (because seriously who was questioning that). I remember the Fox News hosts beside themselves in befuddlement that a candidate could be trailing in the popular vote, yet projected to win.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Well I saw somebody post some dumb shit like OF COURSE this will come down to Hillary vs. Trump. They're the candidates we deserve.

Fuck out of here. Like they're at all comparable. Hillary would make a damn good leader. To compare her to trump is so lazy I'm amazed the brain of someone who said that wouldn't be obese.
 
M

Maledict

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Right when the election was called, Obama was trailing Romney in the national popular vote. This of course happened before any votes from California were counted, even though its electoral votes had already been added to Obama's corner (because seriously who was questioning that). I remember the Fox News hosts beside themselves in befuddlement that a candidate could be trailing in the popular vote, yet projected to win.
Click to expand...

That was such a moment of utter stupidity at the time. I remember watching it and thinking WTF? It was as if all knowledge of how the USA votes and how that works suddenly vanished, and people were acting surprised that Obama might win on the popular vote.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Right when the election was called, Obama was trailing Romney in the national popular vote. This of course happened before any votes from California were counted, even though its electoral votes had already been added to Obama's corner (because seriously who was questioning that). I remember the Fox News hosts beside themselves in befuddlement that a candidate could be trailing in the popular vote, yet projected to win.
Click to expand...

I tuned into Fox News just to watch the melt down .When they were talking about how President Obama could win without winning the popular vote, I was like bitch, please.

Plus....

karl.gif
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Y2Kev said:
Well I saw somebody post some dumb shit like OF COURSE this will come down to Hillary vs. Trump. They're the candidates we deserve.

Fuck out of here. Like they're at all comparable. Hillary would make a damn good leader. To compare her to trump is so lazy I'm amazed the brain of someone who said that wouldn't be obese.
Click to expand...


Dont quite see why you got annoyed by that.

Democrats are getting the candidate they deserve.
Republicans are getting the candidate they deserve.
Of course they can be compared. After that happens, people run for the hills.

Eh? Eh? :D
 
H

Holmes

Member
ivysaur12 said:
I read this the other day and it's really my favorite thing.
Click to expand...
Yes, it's a good read. Back in 2008, I didn't really know Hillary Clinton, and I bought into the Obama hype, especially because my boyfriend at the time was so into him (he's now my husband and supports Sanders). But after the election I saw her performance as Secretary of State, and I read up on all the shit she's been through and still is, and aside from that, all the accomplishments she's had, I respect her more. She did run a bad campaign in 2008 of course, but she's turned it around this year, and I see a different candidate, but also the same one in some respects. So that's why I'm supporting her this time. #MyAbuela
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
NYCmetsfan said:
good to see trumps sexist attacks getting some more legs with other candidates!

Don't. Rubio is the only one I'm worried about.

edit:

Holy shit this is actually a thing on the right

CW7LKQHUsAELPVA.jpg

CW7Lye_WwAA7uv6.jpg
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Yup, Hillary's totally gonna be brought down by #bathroomghazi
 
D

Daniel B·

Banned
adam387 said:
But this is some selective poll reading if I ever saw it. I mean, legitimately, this is amazing. I have to commend you for making this chart. I really do, because....wow.
Click to expand...

I didn't quote the 61/30 result, as that ratio has essentially been quoted numerous times before, so wasn't newsworthy.

What is news, as I thought my post most effectively highlighted, was that, against Trump, the overwhelming Republican favorite (37/18 - HuffPost), Bernie has extended his electabilty advantage, over Hillary, and crushes Trump by thirteen points, compared to Hillary's seven.

And whilst we're quoting national poll figures, I see that Emerson College Polling Society outlier poll of 65/26, which I wouldn't be surprised to learn, was also sponsored by NGP VAN ;), has crashed back down to Earth, with the following new results:

Code: 
                            Hillary     Ber	 Mart	 	 	 		 Und

Rasmussen:           46 	 30	 7	-	-	-	-	 7
CNN:                    50 	 34	 3	-	-	-	-	 5

So, all in all, with Hillary's huge NGP VAN misfire (quite fitting, given they sponsor her bus), and Hispandering, if you were to concede that her campaign has hit some rather large, self made pot holes, I would completely understand ;).
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
No, it is more along the lines of Hillary still being beholden to bourgeois corporate interests, whereas sanders shady shit is, at worst, still firmly in favour of the glorious proletariat.


Plus he did fire the guy.
 
D

Daniel B·

Banned
RustyNails said:
Daniel -B I just want a commitment from you that you will be posting on poligaf after democratic convention.
Click to expand...

If Hillary wins, all the wind would go out of my sails, and, as it looks like I was probably wrong, on Hillary not achieving a comfortable win against Trump, I'm sure Adam would keep you entertained, and soundly fight off any Trump loyalists.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Daniel B, you do know that the Quinnipiac poll you showed Sanders doing better than Clinton against Trump,has him doing worse against Rubio and Cruz than Clinton does?

In other words, general election polls are meaningless before the general election even begins. Especially when one candidate is constantly being attacked by Republicans 24/7 and the other is... let's just say I doubt all Republican candidates can even pick him out in a crowd.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Daniel B·;190306049 said:
I didn't quote the 61/30 result, as that ratio has essentially been quoted numerous times before, so wasn't newsworthy.

What is news, as I thought my post most effectively highlighted, was that, against Trump, the overwhelming Republican favorite (37/18 - HuffPost), Bernie has extended his electabilty advantage, over Hillary, and crushes Trump by thirteen points, compared to Hillary's seven.

And whilst we're quoting national poll figures, I see that Emerson College Polling Society outlier poll of 65/26, which I wouldn't be surprised to learn, was also sponsored by NGP VAN ;), has crashed back down to Earth, with the following new results:

Code: 
                            Hillary     Ber	 Mart	 	 	 		 Und

Rasmussen:           46 	 30	 7	-	-	-	-	 7
CNN:                    50 	 34	 3	-	-	-	-	 5

So, all in all, with Hillary's huge NGP VAN misfire (quite fitting, given they sponsor her bus), and Hispandering, if you were to concede that her campaign has hit some rather large, self made pot holes, I would completely understand ;).
Click to expand...

I know this may come as a shock, I really do. But Bill and Hillary Clinton have been contributing to the Democratic party for 40+ years. With NGP VAN being a Democratic only company, it would be shocking if they didn't have connections to people within that and every other Democratic organization. You know.....because they're Democrats. Not Independents who are pretending to be Democrats, in part, to gain access to the data contained within NGP VAN.

Also, I would love for you to explain what Hillary's campaign did wrong in relation to the data breach. SHE had HER data stolen. No one from her campaign did anything wrong. Bernie had to fire a dude and suspend several others. The public does not care about nuance on positions. The headlines are Bernie's campaign got caught, someone was fired. That is the extent of the data that has reached the public.

Next, Emerson College's polls are rated a C+ according to 538. Rasumussen is rated a C.

As to that CNN poll, I hope you read the interesting part where Hillary started gaining on Bernie after the debate and post datagate. He (again) lost steam after that.

But, please, delve into the CNN numbers a bit more.

Hillary has the right experience to be President? 89% Agree, 11% disagree.
Bernie has the right experience to be President? 62% Agree, 37% disagree.

Would be proud to have Hillary as President? 76/24
Would be proud to have Bernie as President? 63/36

Also, Sanders has lost ground on who can best handle ISIS and foreign policy.

General Election numbers are completely irrelevant until we know who the nominees are actually going to be. Of course, recent polls show Bernie doing worse against Cruz and Rubio, but I'm sure that's easily explained away by oligarchy and the corporate media (that after 30 years of hating her, has suddenly decided Yaaaas Queen Hillary, yaaaaaasss)
 
C

Cerium

Member
Daniel B·;190307679 said:
If Hillary wins, all the wind would go out of my sails, and, as it looks like I was probably wrong, on Hillary not achieving a comfortable win against Trump, I'm sure Adam would keep you entertained, and soundly fight off any Trump loyalists.
Click to expand...

Trump loyalists don't post here. They'd be asked to justify his positions, and then they'd be banned.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Daniel B·;190307679 said:
If Hillary wins, all the wind would go out of my sails, and, as it looks like I was probably wrong, on Hillary not achieving a comfortable win against Trump, I'm sure Adam would keep you entertained, and soundly fight off any Trump loyalists.
Click to expand...

Also, why would you stop posting? There's something about Bernie's message and policies that have excited you. Embrace that. Just because your girl/guy may (or may not) lose, doesn't mean you just throw up your hands and stop being passionate about whatever issues are important to you. The art of politicking means you don't always get everything you want. I know that from experience. Watching Hillary deliver that address at the 2008 DNC Convention hurt like a bitch. But Hillary asked a fundamental question: Were we in it just for her? And I had to admit to myself that I wasn't. I was in it for what she was fighting for. So, I had to swallow my butt hurt and re-engage in winning the election. No way, no how, no Trump/Cruz/Rubio/Bush (LOL)/Huckabee/Voldemort.
 
C

Chichikov

Member
Manmademan said:
when was it ever 35%??? 2007?
Click to expand...
The percentages don't mean shit, they are quite literally bad math.
Okay technically they mean something, but they don't mean what people assume they mean - odds like you get when calculating a chance to win a poker hand.
But that talk is boring, shit, who want to talk about crap like bayesian inference, I nearly fell asleep while typing it, let me run some monte carlo simulations and show you pretty graphs!

ZlzMSd0.png


I AM A MATH WIZARD!
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Chichikov said:
The percentages don't mean shit, they are quite literally bad math.
Okay technically they mean something, but they don't mean what people assume they mean - odds like you get when calculating a chance to win a poker hand.
But that talk is boring, shit, who want to talk about crap like bayesian inference, I nearly fell asleep while typing it, let me run some monte carlo simulations and show you pretty graphs!

ZlzMSd0.png


I AM A MATH WIZARD!
Click to expand...

You're smart.

Math is hard.
 
M

Makai

Member
Reuters

Trump 39
Cruz 13
Carson 10
Rubio 9
Jeb 7
Christie 3
Huckabee 3
Santorum 3
Fiorina 2
Kasich 2
Rand 2
Gilmore 0
Pataki 0

poq9gI7.png
 
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