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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Hannity then asked Bush what decision he would have made with 20/20 hindsight.

"Yeah, I don't know what that decision would've been," Bush responded. "That's a hypothetical but the simple fact was mistakes were made, as they always are in life and foreign policy. So we need to learn from the past to make sure we're strong and secure going forward."
Click to expand...
WRONG ANSWER.
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
thepotatoman said:
It's funny he had to take a mulligan on that one to change his answer all the way from "yes" to "maybe".
Click to expand...
Seriously. A good amount of time to reconsider and figure out how to redo the answer, and THIS is what he came up with? That's scary on a couple levels.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Yellowtail said:
And he's now down to fifth in PPP's new national poll. Shock & awing dat field.

Scott Walker 18%
Marco Rubio 13%
Mike Huckabee 12%
Ben Carson 12%
Jeb Bush 11%
Ted Cruz 10%
Rand Paul 9%
Chris Christie 5%
Rick Perry 2%

Hillary Clinton 63%
Bernie Sanders 13%
Jim Webb 6%
Lincoln Chafee 5%
Martin O'Malley 2%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/05/walker-still-leads-nationally-clinton-over-60.html
Click to expand...
I'm assuming Carly Fiorina is polling below zero. Am I off?
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
PPP only polls 9 people because you indicate your choice by pressing the numbers 1 to 9 on your phone keypad (and press 0 for "other" which got 9%). They clearly didn't consider her one of the 9 people important enough to poll, although personally I think she's as competitive as Perry at this point.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Yellowtail said:
And he's now down to fifth in PPP's new national poll. Shock & awing dat field.

Scott Walker 18%
Marco Rubio 13%
Mike Huckabee 12%
Ben Carson 12%
Jeb Bush 11%
Ted Cruz 10%
Rand Paul 9%
Chris Christie 5%
Rick Perry 2%

Hillary Clinton 63%
Bernie Sanders 13%
Jim Webb 6%
Lincoln Chafee 5%
Martin O'Malley 2%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/05/walker-still-leads-nationally-clinton-over-60.html
Click to expand...

Dominating. That 50 point spread is amazing. Her numbers having been holding steadily for the last 2+ years.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Yellowtail said:
And he's now down to fifth in PPP's new national poll. Shock & awing dat field.

Scott Walker 18%
Marco Rubio 13%
Mike Huckabee 12%
Ben Carson 12%
Jeb Bush 11%
Ted Cruz 10%
Rand Paul 9%
Chris Christie 5%
Rick Perry 2%

Hillary Clinton 63%
Bernie Sanders 13%
Jim Webb 6%
Lincoln Chafee 5%
Martin O'Malley 2%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/05/walker-still-leads-nationally-clinton-over-60.html
Click to expand...

28% name Sanders as first or second choice. Next one after that is at 11% so Sanders is clearly the second choice here. Don't know why there's no Biden in that poll though.

32% of republican primary voters believe in the conspiracy theory about the federal government taking over texas while 40% don't.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
Yellowtail said:
And he's now down to fifth in PPP's new national poll. Shock & awing dat field.

Scott Walker 18%
Marco Rubio 13%
Mike Huckabee 12%
Ben Carson 12%
Jeb Bush 11%
Ted Cruz 10%
Rand Paul 9%
Chris Christie 5%
Rick Perry 2%

Hillary Clinton 63%
Bernie Sanders 13%
Jim Webb 6%
Lincoln Chafee 5%
Martin O'Malley 2%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/05/walker-still-leads-nationally-clinton-over-60.html
Click to expand...
Fascinating writeup. It looks like only Walker and Rubio can stitch together a winning coalition. Bush has such little support outside of moderates that it's looking almost pointless to run.
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
NeoXChaos said:
Dominating. That 50 point spread is amazing. Her numbers having been holding steadily for the last 2+ years.
Click to expand...
Three polls taken exactly 8 years ago in early May:

Gallup: Hillary Clinton 35%, Barack Obama 26%, Al Gore 16%, John Edwards 12%
Cook/RT Strategies: Hillary Clinton 35%, Barack Obama 24%, John Edwards 11%, Al Gore 10%
Rasmussen: Hillary Clinton 35%, Barack Obama 25%, John Edwards 18%

It's just like 2008!
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
thepotatoman said:
28% name Sanders as first or second choice. Next one after that is at 11% so Sanders is clearly the second choice here. Don't know why there's no Biden in that poll though.

32% of republican primary voters believe in the conspiracy theory about the federal government taking over texas while 40% don't.
Click to expand...

Biden hasn't even indicated he's going to run so there's no need to put him in.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Yellowtail said:
And he's now down to fifth in PPP's new national poll. Shock & awing dat field.

Scott Walker 18%
Marco Rubio 13%
Mike Huckabee 12%
Ben Carson 12%
Jeb Bush 11%
Ted Cruz 10%
Rand Paul 9%
Chris Christie 5%
Rick Perry 2%

Hillary Clinton 63%
Bernie Sanders 13%
Jim Webb 6%
Lincoln Chafee 5%
Martin O'Malley 2%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/05/walker-still-leads-nationally-clinton-over-60.html
Click to expand...

The Scott Walker fall from the top is going to be amazing to watch.

He was in Michigan the other day and dodged every single question he got.
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
Dominating. That 50 point spread is amazing. Her numbers having been holding steadily for the last 2+ years.
Click to expand...

You know what a much better poll would be?

One where we see who people WHO ARE FAMILIAR with Sanders would vote for.

I'd imagine Hilary gets destroyed.

Give Sanders a few months to campaign before jumping to conclusions
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
Abinash117 said:
Like what? I see many, many people hate on capitalism and blame that on the problems that the country has. But then I read articles that said people generally don't know what socialism is; people seem to want more economic left policies that seem socialist, but don't want a lot government interference . But I usually think it is a lot of government oversight and some form of government welfare. I do agree we should help the poor a lot more, have a better healthcare, and among some other things, but I don't know about going all in. People that argue for capitalism usual think that it pulled people out of poverty like in China.

I always thought socialism worked in much smaller countries, I wouldn't know about a big country like the US.

Bernie Sanders is a self described democratic socialist and a lot of young people seem to like the idea of that. But I seriously doubt he will be even capable of changing much.
Click to expand...

Meh the constant polling bores me anyway ...

Socialism is a weird term in the US. Currently it's used by the right to describe our current president and to drum up support for the anti-ACA movement. Realistically it's currently mixed in with modern economies through the developed world to different degrees and flavors.

I think when most people think socialism they think of a centrally controlled economy and society. This is kind of on the extreme end vision of a fully socialist society. I've met few modern socialists who think a centrally controlled economy is where it's at though (Obviously anecdotal). Consumer goods like sun glasses and such are more efficiently run through capitalist model where demand and allocation of resources to meet that demand are better met. Things like healthcare and other things we consider utilities are better dispersed socially. Things like worker owned co-ops fit into a a standard capitalist consumer goods market as well but are a popular socialist concept.

The term is just so politicized in the US it's become a stopping point for conversation. Want to have single payer? You're a socialist! Think food stamps are good economic stimulus? You're a socialist! Lots of terms are like this though. Redistribution of wealth has been recently demonized as socialist phrase and we've been doing it since ... forever. It wasn't socialist under Reagan but under Obama?

All in all, be careful of the terms people use. They're often not accurate and are only meant to evoke a reactionary negative emotion.


jamesinclair said:
You know what a much better poll would be?

One where we see who people WHO ARE FAMILIAR with Sanders would vote for.

I'd imagine Hilary gets destroyed.

Give Sanders a few months to campaign before jumping to conclusions
Click to expand...

Sucked in anyways ...

I doubt it. He doesn't have the charisma that Obama had when he shot up from behind Hillary to win the nom. I would love to be wrong, but I doubt it. Hillary seems to be moving left anyway with the party. IMO Best case scenario Bernie helps cement that move to the left during the primaries.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
jamesinclair said:
You know what a much better poll would be?

One where we see who people WHO ARE FAMILIAR with Sanders would vote for.

I'd imagine Hilary gets destroyed.

Give Sanders a few months to campaign before jumping to conclusions
Click to expand...

I'm not. Polling has continued to show her in the lead in practically any state or national poll since December 2012. Bernie will no doubt get votes but will it ever be enough to overtake her and get the nomination? Absolutely 1000% no. I like and want Bernie in the race but I dont see under any circumstance of him getting the nomination. This isn't 2008. I repeat this isn't 2008. The last 3/5 Democratic nominees who won: JFK, Clinton & Obama were once in a generation candidates. Bernie does not fit that bill.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/05/07/no-hillary-clintons-does-not-have-a-liberal-problem/

Poll after poll -- in key states and nationally -- shows the same thing. Are their voices within the party -- Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Bill de Blasio -- who wonder aloud whether Clinton is sufficiently committed to liberal ideals to carry the party's banner basically unchallenged in 2016? Yes. But, remember two things: 1) It is in the interests of people like the trio I mentioned above to elevate themselves as leaders of the left, a calculation to which Clinton is really a sidebar and 2) There is NO evidence that these few prominent voices represent any substantial bloc of, you know, actual voters. Pockets of discontent toward Clinton exist, but they are pockets, not a whole pair of pants. (Ugh.)
Click to expand...
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Shucks, the Texas GOP just can't stay away from that damn gay stove!

Here's a really fun interview between a CNN anchor and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton regarding the pending Texas SCOTUS-workaround bill.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xro9qU5ic0o

It has to be one of the most mealy-mouthed, weasel-worded interviews I've seen in a while. At moments, he seems to struggle with his words. (It's best after about 3:15)

Since he won't predict or commit to anything, I'll give it a try:
- the law passes this week
- SCOTUS rules next month
- gay folks get married in the two-month window between the SCOTUS ruling and the law taking effect
- law takes effect
- suit filed immediately, makes its way through the courts
- GOP field (and eventual nominee) is forced to comment on the issue as each development arrives

Part of me is pissed at these laws, but another part of me is sitting here thinking, "are you suuuuure you wanna force this issue into the middle of Campaign '16? Be my guest."

Maybe Cecil Bell is a Democratic mole? He looks the part of the goofy GOP cartoon villain, right?

index~~element82.PNG


If Hillary's team has any sense in their heads, they'll hit this wedge hard as it comes up.
 
T

Teggy

Member
HylianTom said:
Shucks, the Texas GOP just can't stay away from that damn gay stove!

Here's a really fun interview between a CNN anchor and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton regarding the pending Texas SCOTUS-workaround bill.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xro9qU5ic0o
Click to expand...

I love how he first says that the Texas public passed a constitutional amendment in 2005 by about 75%-25%, then the host brings up a poll from last year that shows 48% in favor of same sex marriage, then he changes the wording to the public voting for the amendment "several" years ago so it doesn't sound so dated.

Oops, I guess people can change their minds in 10 years Mr. AG.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Ryan Tenney ‏@ryantenney 22m22 minutes ago
@ScottWalker Common Core Math:
1) 1700 is 93 from 1607
2) 2000 is 300 from 1700
3) 2015 is 15 from 2000
4) 93 + 300 = 393
5) 393 + 15 = 408
Click to expand...

The replies are coming fast and furious.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Teggy said:
Ryan Tenney ‏@ryantenney 22m22 minutes ago
@ScottWalker Common Core Math:
1) 1700 is 93 from 1607
2) 2000 is 300 from 1700
3) 2015 is 15 from 2000
4) 93 + 300 = 393
5) 393 + 15 = 408
Click to expand...
The replies are coming fast and furious.
Click to expand...

I like the idea of counting up to do these subtractions, but wouldn't it be easier to count up the 100s first, and the 10s and single digits second?

Get the 100 spot closest as possible without going over:
1607 + 400 = 2007
Get the 10 spot closest as possible without going over:
2007 + 3 = 2010
Get the 1 spot closest as possible without going over:
2010 + 5 = 2015

400 + 3 + 5 = 408

At least that's how I do it in my head. Bringing a 90 into this calculation seems unnecessarily complicated.
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
I love how consistently Republican governors reveal themselves to be bumbling fools the minute they try to step up to the national stage.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
I remember articles about the inevitability of Jeb, how he'd simply outlast opponents...

He's not ready, and honestly I get the impression he doesn't want to run. Say what you will about W Bush, he was somewhat charismatic and came off like he did what he believed. Jeb seems somewhat Obama-esque in his social awkwardness, but with none of the charm or charisma. He seems like he'd rather be somewhere reading a book.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
PhoenixDark said:
I remember articles about the inevitability of Jeb, how he'd simply outlast opponents...

He's not ready, and honestly I get the impression he doesn't want to run. Say what you will about W Bush, he was somewhat charismatic and came off like he did what he believed. Jeb seems somewhat Obama-esque in his social awkwardness, but with none of the charm or charisma. He seems like he'd rather be somewhere reading a book.
Click to expand...

You might be right about your read of him, but the money guys are going to push him all the way through the primary if they have to. So far no one else has stood up who isn't crazy or so weak that they'd be controlled by the crazies. Everyone else in the field is blatantly incompetent in one way or another. He'll have the money to outlast everyone and that's what will matter because once the primary actually starts everyone else will crash and burn in an instant under the spotlight while Jeb just limps along as he stabs himself in the leg over and over again. The GOP has no one on the sidelines that can rise above this fray and waltz to the nomination, it's going to be a bloodbath and all the donors and party leaders can hope to do is pick a guy and shove so much money at him that he can't help but win.
 
N

Nazgul_Hunter

Member
B-Dubs said:
You might be right about your read of him, but the money guys are going to push him all the way through the primary if they have to. So far no one else has stood up who isn't crazy or so weak that they'd be controlled by the crazies. Everyone else in the field is blatantly incompetent in one way or another. He'll have the money to outlast everyone and that's what will matter because once the primary actually starts everyone else will crash and burn in an instant under the spotlight while Jeb just limps along as he stabs himself in the leg over and over again. The GOP has no one on the sidelines that can rise above this fray and waltz to the nomination, it's going to be a bloodbath and all the donors and party leaders can hope to do is pick a guy and shove so much money at him that he can't help but win.
Click to expand...

#DraftJeb
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
B-Dubs said:
You might be right about your read of him, but the money guys are going to push him all the way through the primary if they have to. So far no one else has stood up who isn't crazy or so weak that they'd be controlled by the crazies. Everyone else in the field is blatantly incompetent in one way or another. He'll have the money to outlast everyone and that's what will matter because once the primary actually starts everyone else will crash and burn in an instant under the spotlight while Jeb just limps along as he stabs himself in the leg over and over again. The GOP has no one on the sidelines that can rise above this fray and waltz to the nomination, it's going to be a bloodbath and all the donors and party leaders can hope to do is pick a guy and shove so much money at him that he can't help but win.
Click to expand...

Is this type of primary a new occurrence? Can we start labeling these types of nominations something to do with Romney? He lost Romneycare to Obama. It would only be fair.
 
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