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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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P

PhoenixDark

Banned
RustyNails said:
W is a good retail politician. He won 2004 only because he connected more with voters than Kerry. But he's not a good orator, and the biggest problem with this strategy is the mess in Iraq and the fact that Jeb is basically giving up. I think this is an absolutely ill-fated advise. Jeb seriously needs to think long term. Using W even once will define Jeb's political life for eternity. He needs to give his best shot, and if he doesn't win, gracefully bow out and learn your lessons for 2020. It's really not worth ruining your career to maybe win the nomination to definitely lose against Hillary.
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To be fair Bush won in 2004 largely due to the benefits of incumbency and the US being in the middle of a war. The gay marriage wedge didn't hurt either. Kerry was a weak candidate but I don't really think any democrat was going to win that year in large part due to most of the likely candidates having the same vulnerability: voting for the war.

Jeb is finished if he doesn't win the nomination. His entire campaign is built on inevitability - if he loses, he loses that (and a lot of money). And four years from now will also be four more years farther away from when he was in office.
 
M

Makai

Member
kingkitty said:
jeb! is 62.
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You just can't contain Jeb's youthful energy.

enhanced-28966-1431710274-20.jpg
 
R

RustyNails

Member
PhoenixDark said:
To be fair Bush won in 2004 largely due to the benefits of incumbency and the US being in the middle of a war. The gay marriage wedge didn't hurt either. Kerry was a weak candidate but I don't really think any democrat was going to win that year in large part due to most of the likely candidates having the same vulnerability: voting for the war.

Jeb is finished if he doesn't win the nomination. His entire campaign is built on inevitability - if he loses, he loses that (and a lot of money). And four years from now will also be four more years farther away from when he was in office.
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I think he has a better chance in 2020. It is not unusual to flop in your first rodeo. Romney ran in 2008 and failed, only to get the nom in 2012. McCain ran in 2000 and failed, only to win the nom in 2008. I refuse to accept W won 2000. That's along side first-time runners like Bill Clinton and Obama who won. I definitely think there is a case to be made for Jeb in 2020. But the problem is that if he enlists the help of W, it's over. Doesn't matter if it's 2016 or 2020 or 2024. He will taint himself as the lessor brother of a failed president.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
RustyNails said:
I think he has a better chance in 2020. It is not unusual to flop in your first rodeo. Romney ran in 2008 and failed, only to get the nom in 2012. McCain ran in 2000 and failed, only to win the nom in 2008.
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Both of your examples failed to secured the nom, then once that was over and done with, failed to win the general. Opponents would have to be quite dense to let this narrative untouched.

Third time's the charm, tho?

W. attachment has been on the table ever since dude was obtuse enough to mention that his bro kept yall safe. That bridge's been crossed already.

Either way jeb would be the comeback kid that managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of (primary) success while amassing a ridiculous amount of cash. Narrative would be that if Trump could make him, with all the money in the world, quit the race, why should anyone bother with him ever again?

Plus 2020 will treat us to Scott Walker 2.0, Cruz Missile and Jindal Reloaded. Glorious enough as is.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
RustyNails said:
I think he has a better chance in 2020. It is not unusual to flop in your first rodeo. Romney ran in 2008 and failed, only to get the nom in 2012. McCain ran in 2000 and failed, only to win the nom in 2008. I refuse to accept W won 2000. That's along side first-time runners like Bill Clinton and Obama who won. I definitely think there is a case to be made for Jeb in 2020. But the problem is that if he enlists the help of W, it's over. Doesn't matter if it's 2016 or 2020 or 2024. He will taint himself as the lessor brother of a failed president.
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True, the second place candidate often becomes the nominee four years later for republicans. But it doesn't seem like Bush will come in second place. But the bigger factor is that he has raised 100mil in PAC money yet hasn't moved the dial with voters. How can he come back in four years after wasting that much money (assuming he doesn't come close to the nomination)? If he can't win as the establishment front runner how can he win in four years when the party will presumably have a younger establishment front runner.

Unlike Romney he doesn't strike me as a commanding candidate who can convince republicans he's the man. Romney looked and sounded like a president, and had s burning desire to be president. I don't think Bush has any of that...
 
M

Mike M

Nick N
Poodlestrike said:
Jews for Jesus has always been a confusing group to me.
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FiggyCal said:
They're just Christians. I looked it up on wikipedia and I don't know what I was expecting really.
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PhoenixDark said:
Well Jesus' entire message was aimed at the Jews. I assume this group simply believes he was/is the messiah.
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NYCmetsfan said:
Christians cosplaying as Jews
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Figgy and Metsfan've got it. It's an organization created out of whole cloth for the express purpose of converting Jews by pretending to be Jewish themselves. They're really shameless and blatant about it.
 
Metaphoreus

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Mike M said:
Figgy and Metsfan've got it. It's an organization created out of whole cloth for the express purpose of converting Jews by pretending to be Jewish themselves. They're really shameless and blatant about it.
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"Pretending?" Are they not actually Jewish? From their FAQ:

Regardless of what anyone says, we are Jews in that we are physically descended from Abraham, Isaac and Jacob. At the same time we are also Christians—those who believe in and follow Jesus, the Jewish Messiah. One classification does not cancel out the other, even though rabbis like to teach that Judaism and Christianity are mutually exclusive categories and hence are antithetical to one another.
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It bears mentioning that Christ was a Jew, as were the first Christians. In fact, originally there was some question about whether the gospel was even applicable to Gentiles.
 
B

Brawndo Addict

Banned
Ethnically Jewish is different from religiously Jewish. I would assume they are the former and leveraging the curiosity that 'Jews for Jesus' creates.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
dramatis said:
Are you Jewish though? I wonder if they hand those pamphlets out to anybody regardless of whether the people are Jewish or not.
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No. And he didn't give me my deposit back in the original mail. Just the flyer. I still have it -- I'll take some pictures later.
 
P

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
Metaphoreus said:
"Pretending?" Are they not actually Jewish? From their FAQ:



It bears mentioning that Christ was a Jew, as were the first Christians. In fact, originally there was some question about whether the gospel was even applicable to Gentiles.
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They are not Jewish. Neither culturally nor religiously. Just because they say they are doesn't mean they are. They even state right there that they are also Christians. I guess they use the Old Testament and some Jewish traditions mixed with Christianity but that doesn't make them Jewish. Jews don't even necessarily believe that Christ was even a real person.
 
Metaphoreus

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Particle Physicist said:
They are not Jewish. Neither culturally nor religiously. Just because they say they are doesn't mean they are. They even state right there that they are also Christians. I guess they use the Old Testament and Some Jewish traditions mixed wth Christianity but that doesn't make them Jewish. Jews don't even necessarily believe that Christ was even a real person.
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Then what do you make of Jewish atheists?

The term "Jew" can describe those who are descended from the Jewish Patriarchs, which appears to be the sense (or at least a sense) in which the organization is using it.

Mike M said:
As in adherents to the tenets of Judaism? Absolutely not.
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I'm not so sure that that's right, either. Which tenet(s) do they reject?
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
Metaphoreus said:
Then what do you make of Jewish atheists?

The term "Jew" can describe those who are descended from the Jewish Patriarchs, which appears to be the sense (or at least a sense) in which the organization is using it.
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Yeah, I agree with Meta. Jews for Jesus are a bit of a headscratcher (since the primary delineating line between Judaism and Christianity is "do you or do you not accept the teachings of Jesus"), but they're still Jews.

Just... really, really odd Jews.
 
B

Brawndo Addict

Banned
I believe the ethnic rule is that you are Jewish if your mother was Jewish. I know a couple people who identify as Jews but do not practice the religion.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
RustyNails said:
Got it wrong for both Hillary and Stannis. We don't know if no one wants Stannis. He is the next in line, but it's the Lannisters that don't want him, not the citizenry. And there is no indication that the American electorate doesn't want Hillary either.
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I wasn't talking about the Stannis comparison (which I disagree with) however...as a huge Stannis fan I gotta say the citizenry definitely would not want him as king.

"Robert was the true steel. Stannis is pure iron, black and hard and strong, yes, but brittle, the way iron gets. He'll break before he bends. And Renly, that one, he's copper, bright and shiny, pretty to look at but not worth all that much at the end of the day"

Granted Stannis at least learns to compromise later (because he has no choice) but he's still iron willed more often than not.
 
P

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
PhoenixDark said:
Meta is right.
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Except ask any Jew if Jews For Jesus are Jews. The whole purpose of the religion is to convert Jews to Christianity. Read up on the group. The only Jewish thing about them is the appropriation of some Jewish customs. They are trying to claim that they are ethnically Jewish but just because they say they are doesn't mean they actually are. If you think that they are essentially the same as atheist Jews who still identify as Jews you don't really understand Judaism.
 
P

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
Coriolanus said:
You are treading very dangerous waters with some potentially extremely hideous parallels, mate.
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Parallels what parallels? If you are trying to extrapolate what I said to other topics, that is not my intent. I wasn't the one making any parallels. My point was that the only people that legitimize Jews for Jesus as Jews are Jews for Jesus (crazy sentence right there, haha). Judaism is defined as an ethnicity and a religion in order to explain the deeply ingrained culture within the religion. They are not mutually exclusive though. Atheism can exist in the umbrella of Judaism because basically it allows for that (it's a bit more complicated to explain). Once you convert to Chritianity you are no longer Jewish. You once were Jewish and your ancestors may have been Jewish but you are no longer Jewish. Please read up on the group. Once again, it's an evangelical group whose whole purpose is to convert Jews to Christianity.


EDIT:

Here

https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/anti-semitism/Jews_for_Jesus.html

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Jews_for_Jesus
 
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