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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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NeoXChaos

Member
George W Bush might be coming back.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/05/us/politics/a-struggling-jeb-bush-may-lean-on-george-w-in-south-carolina.html

GREENVILLE, S.C. — With Jeb Bush struggling to connect with some Republican activists, his campaign has begun exploring whether to bring in the person it thinks may be best equipped to give him a boost with skeptical conservatives: his brother George W. Bush.

The 43rd president is a very popular figure among Republican voters and could deliver a needed jolt to his brother’s sluggish campaign.

Advisers to Jeb Bush in this crucial early primary state have asked national campaign officials in recent weeks to send in George Bush, 69, who so far has appeared only at private fund-raisers, to vouch for his younger brother on the campaign trail.

The request for reinforcement underlines the growing urgency that backers of Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, feel as other candidates vault ahead of him by stirring the passions of the party’s base.

But the question of how to use the candidate’s older brother is an agonizing one for the campaign. While dispatching George Bush to a state like South Carolina could shore up his standing with conservatives, and remind voters there of a political family they still admire, it could also underscore the impression that Jeb Bush is simply a legacy candidate at a time when voters are itching for change.

What is more, given the former president’s unpopularity among many in the broader electorate, joint appearances by the brothers could provide irresistible footage for Democratic attacks against Jeb Bush if he wins the Republican nomination. The continued instability in the Middle East, in particular, could remind voters of George Bush’s decision to invade Iraq and make joint images of the Bush brothers potent fodder for the opposition.

“It may ruin the race for him down the line, but it could win the race here,” said Katon Dawson, a former chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party.

Still, in this heavily conservative state, which delivered crucial primary wins both to George W. Bush and to his father, the first President George Bush, there is a growing view that Jeb Bush needs to embrace his older brother.
 
It hurts Clinton more because Clinton has more support to lose. Biden is more competitive in more states than Sanders and would EASILY take 2nd place in national polling when he becomes official. Truth hurts.

It hurts Clinton because they share bases. Dont be obtuse. Sanders wont just go up to #1 in polls because of such reality.
 
It hurts Clinton in terms of overlapping support. (Although I'm quite certain part of Sanders vote is ABC and/or ABLadyPres, at least at a subconscious level.)

It hurts Sanders in terms of exposure/coverage. Dropping into third. The new story becomes the Clinton/Biden horserace.
 
It hurts Clinton in terms of overlapping support. (Although I'm quite certain part of Sanders vote is ABC and/or ABLadyPres, at least at a subconscious level.)

It hurts Sanders in terms of exposure/coverage. Dropping into third. The new story becomes the Clinton/Biden horserace.

I would agree with this, adding that Sanders situation would be worse, because the last thing he needs is a lack of exposure/coverage. His campaign won't be able to subsist without it.
 

HylianTom

Banned
The rumor is that he's announcing a decision this week; I wonder.. if he were going with a typical large-venue announcement, wouldn't we know about it by now?
 

NeoXChaos

Member
I'll be happy to wipe away that hillary next to your name. If you want to back up your words that is

You won't need to. Queen Hillary is here to stay.

Tom that rumor is countered by another rumor of second half of October and beginning of November.

Real Answer: No one but Biden knows.
 

noshten

Member
I would agree with this, adding that Sanders situation would be worse, because the last thing he needs is a lack of exposure/coverage. His campaign won't be able to subsist without it.

The might be more coverage of the Democratic nomination if Biden jumps in, media has been covering the Republican circus a lot more inpart because like a lot of you here they've decided that Hillary Clinton is locked in with a smaller than 5% chance she might lose to Sanders.

There is a reason the media has been covering sources involved in the Clinton campaign who are already preparing for someone entering the race who might eat away some of her support:

Hillary Clinton Camp Is Making Moves to Check Joe Biden
They have flooded uncommitted Democrats with emails, phone calls and a plea for them to sign a letter, a copy of which was obtained by The New York Times. In the letter, Democrats are asked to “pledge to support Hillary Rodham Clinton at the 2016 Democratic National Committee Convention with my unpledged delegate vote.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/01/u...ton-camp-begins-to-fear-run-by-joe-biden.html

Like I said earlier Hillary has a lot more to lose from a possible Biden/Gore/Kerry run. If you wanted to possibly win over some of the people leaning Sanders you'd need Elizabeth to be the one entering the race not Biden.
 

HylianTom

Banned
You won't need to. Queen Hillary is here to stay.

Tom that rumor is countered by another rumor of second half of October and beginning of November.

Real Answer: No one but Biden knows.

I kinda love the varying rumors.. this has been a pretty boring Democratic season so far. (And - I'm working backwards here - that "homophobe" comment was downright siiiick.)
 

Wilsongt

Member
I hope Obama throws everything he can at SC in the next few days in terms of aid, because the last thing I want to hear is any bullshit about obama's katrina.
 

Makai

Member
I hope Obama throws everything he can at SC in the next few days in terms of aid, because the last thing I want to hear is any bullshit about obama's katrina.
I live in downtown Charleston and I see no signs of flooding. No way this is compared to Katrina.
 
Even if he announces "No." It's still going to be a "No... for now." He's still Plan B
iden
if Scandillary™ implodes.

Seriously. I'm not sure which is worse, the speculation about Biden running, or the Project Cafe speculation threads about how powerful the Wii U was going to be/currently is. Both were/are annoying at this point.
 

FiggyCal

Banned
CPD_doLWoAA2xdg.jpg
I just saw this pic. It was from the first cnn debate.
 
Seriously. I'm not sure which is worse, the speculation about Biden running, or the Project Cafe speculation threads about how powerful the Wii U was going to be/currently is. Both were/are annoying at this point.
I must have read at least two hundred pages of the wii u speculation thread. Do you remember how krizzx argued for like 50 pages how the wiiu must have 300 alus because how else could it handle xbox 360 ports with ease? And fourth storm kept gently trying to inject some sanity into the proceedings and carefully explain why it had half that number, and thunder monkey keeping it all going with humor..
Good times
 
I must have read at least two hundred pages of the wii u speculation thread. Do you remember how krizzx argued for like 50 pages how the wiiu must have 300 alus because how else could it handle xbox 360 ports with ease? And fourth storm kept gently trying to inject some sanity into the proceedings and carefully explain why it had half that number, and thunder monkey keeping it all going with humor..
Good times

Yes. Nearly put a gun to my head. It just went on and on. Ideaman giving fuel to the fire wasn't helping either. All those words... nothing but hot air.
 
It hurts Clinton because they share bases. Dont be obtuse. Sanders wont just go up to #1 in polls because of such reality.

If you can explain how being in 3rd place is a good thing I would LOVE to hear it. I guess I should change my statement from it being bad for Sanders to it being irrelevant for Sanders because he loses in every scenario anyways.
 
If you can explain how being in 3rd place is a good thing I would LOVE to hear it. I guess I should change my statement from it being bad for Sanders to it being irrelevant for Sanders because he loses in every scenario anyways.

Being third with 24-28% > being second with 35%.

Any of the three candidates would need less votes to win primaries. Thing is Biden/Clinton share a similar electorate, so that benefits Sanders if he is able to break his ceiling (a good debate and winning Iowa/NH would be the breaking point he needs, imo).

You may want to read this article:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/255767-biden-entry-would-boost-bernie-sanders-say-dems

“He (Sanders) should be leading the ‘Run, Joe, Run’ campaign,” said Joe Trippi, the Democratic strategist who ran former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean’s 2004 presidential campaign.

Also, I dont think Biden will overrun Sanders though. He will gain a lot immediatly after running, for a couple of weeks. But he will go back to a solid third place just in time for the first primaries. How solid that third place is will decide if Sanders overcomes Clinton or not. (of course, Sanders still have the problem that, once Joe drops out, all of his delegates will change to Clinton)*

*This is just a fun, baseless prediction, dont take it as an analysis.
 
W is a good retail politician. He won 2004 only because he connected more with voters than Kerry. But he's not a good orator, and the biggest problem with this strategy is the mess in Iraq and the fact that Jeb is basically giving up. I think this is an absolutely ill-fated advise. Jeb seriously needs to think long term. Using W even once will define Jeb's political life for eternity. He needs to give his best shot, and if he doesn't win, gracefully bow out and learn your lessons for 2020. It's really not worth ruining your career to maybe win the nomination to definitely lose against Hillary.
 

HylianTom

Banned
W is a good retail politician. He won 2004 only because he connected more with voters than Kerry. But he's not a good orator, and the biggest problem with this strategy is the mess in Iraq and the fact that Jeb is basically giving up. I think this is an absolutely ill-fated advise. Jeb seriously needs to think long term. Using W even once will define Jeb's political life for eternity. He needs to give his best shot, and if he doesn't win, gracefully bow out and learn your lessons for 2020. It's really not worth ruining your career to maybe win the nomination to definitely lose against Hillary.
Using Dubya is the exact opposite of "being willing to lose the primary in order to win the general." He very well may appeal to a chunk of that electorate that stuck with Dubya to the end of his term, but his general election opponent would plaster Jeb as Dubya's third term..
 
W is a good retail politician. He won 2004 only because he connected more with voters than Kerry. But he's not a good orator, and the biggest problem with this strategy is the mess in Iraq and the fact that Jeb is basically giving up. I think this is an absolutely ill-fated advise. Jeb seriously needs to think long term. Using W even once will define Jeb's political life for eternity. He needs to give his best shot, and if he doesn't win, gracefully bow out and learn your lessons for 2020. It's really not worth ruining your career to maybe win the nomination to definitely lose against Hillary.

Jeb is nearly 70, he doesn't have that long of a political career left.
 
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