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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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Y

Yellowtail

Member
Fuck, is it too late for me to change to Jeb neoxchaos?

CQqEuxlUEAAdsZQ.jpg


http://www.dickmorris.com/jeb-bush-cant-win/
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Bam Bam Baklava said:
Looking past the matchups, none of these GE numbers would indicate losing NH by double digits like in the Marist polls. That would take a huge loss nationwide. Also, Sanders still does worst.
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The fact that Carson wins GE polls makes me want to throw up.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Bam Bam Baklava said:
I've been warning you guys about him for weeks.
Click to expand...

You're preaching to the choir. I said on here months ago that he could win a general election.

Here's the new gem:

As a Doctor, I spent many a night pulling bullets out of bodies. There is no doubt that this senseless violence is breathtaking – but I never saw a body with bullet holes that was more devastating than taking the right to arm ourselves away.
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P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
teiresias said:
Looks like Plinkoing is going to be the new verb du election cycle.
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Meh--I still think Trump takes it.

Carson scares me as POTUS but do I think he'll get there? No.
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
When did posting screencaps of text become a thing? Is this facebook now?

Also, people going off on Carly for the campaign staff thing, note the following:
- that guy worked for her Senate campaign, that's not an official statement
- She did pay people off eventually (not clear if it was everybody)
- the article notes that Clinton paid some people as late as 2013 for her 2008 run

I'm not saying she isn't a heartless dick, but that piece seems more like an opportunistic smear than current events.
 
Tarkus

Tarkus

Member
The Democratic debate isn't going to get the ratings that the GOP did because, quite honestly, Hills and Bernie are boring as fuck when they speak. I just watched Bernie at the University of Chicago and he was as dull as oatmeal with no butter. He sounds like an old Jewish grandpa yelling at you. Dems should be happy that he resonates very well with the college libs.

At least Hillary will provide entertainment by dodging jabs about her emails. I've never heard a single thing from the other people in the debate.

Policies aside, I believe charisma is severely lacking in this field.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
SourShoes said:
The Democratic debate isn't going to get the ratings that the GOP did because, quite honestly, Hills and Bernie are boring as fuck when they speak. I just watched Bernie at the University of Chicago and he was as dull as oatmeal with no butter. He sounds like an old Jewish grandpa yelling at you. Dems should be happy that he resonates very well with the college libs.

At least Hillary will provide entertainment by dodging jabs about her emails. I've never heard a single thing from the other people in the debate.

Policies aside, I believe charisma is severely lacking in this field.
Click to expand...
The Dem nominee is very lucky in that no one viable on the GOP side is Obama or Reagan-tier charismatic. If so, that ice in my veins would melt.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Ignatz Mouse said:
When did posting screencaps of text become a thing? Is this facebook now?

Also, people going off on Carly for the campaign staff thing, note the following:
- that guy worked for her Senate campaign, that's not an official statement
- She did pay people off eventually (not clear if it was everybody)
- the article notes that Clinton paid some people as late as 2013 for her 2008 run

I'm not saying she isn't a heartless dick, but that piece seems more like an opportunistic smear than current events.
Click to expand...
Yes, but no Hillary staffer killed himself over polling and then his family was subsequently dicked over pay.
 
N

noshten

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
Democratic debates would still only get a tiny fraction of what the god Trump pulls in. Though I think less and less people will tune in to each one.
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It's not just about the debate per-say as I've said multiple times, it's the coverage linked with the debates. Right now mainstream media isn't covering Sanders enough for everyone to become familiar with his policies, ideas and persona. So the debate will be a good opportunity for him to reach people that are currently not informed on other options within the Democratic field. Other than the odd poll, media has hardly been covering Sanders rally's, poll results or positions on anywhere near the same level as the Republican circus. People actually arguing on positions might prove to be quite important for undecided voters who are watching the Republicans and scratching their heads.

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, “Sanders hasn’t been ignored by the press, which wants a horse race between Sanders (or Biden, or anyone!!!) and Clinton. Still, Sanders’s media coverage has been paltry compared with Trump’s. According to Yahoo News, Trump has received about 35,000 media “hits” in the past month, compared with about 9,000 for Sanders. For comparison, Clinton has had 18,000 hits over the same period, and Jeb Bush has had 14,000.”
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There is also a recent MRC Study on prime time news coverage.
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/ric...ts-most-press-bernie-and-biden-get-best-press
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
On the DSCC's almost pitch-perfect recruiting:

http://atr.rollcall.com/senate-democrats-nearly-run-table-recruitment/

With New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan’s entrance into the Granite State Senate contest, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has secured nearly every top-tier recruit it sought for 2016 — when Democrats will attempt to net the five seats necessary to regain control of the Senate.

Aside from Hassan in New Hampshire, the DSCC secured strong candidates in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The DSCC also scored wins with Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick’s decision to run for Senate in Arizona, as well as three Democratic senators from red states forgoing gubernatorial bids in 2016.


The only place Democrats failed to get the candidate they wanted was in North Carolina, after former Sen. Kay Hagan said no to a comeback bid in May and Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx opted out of a challenge to GOP Sen. Richard M. Burr. Democrats are currently working on recruiting lower-tier candidates in the Tar Heel State.

“I think the DSCC pitched close to a perfect game on recruitment,” said Doug Thornell, a national Democratic strategist. “I think Hassan is kind of the cherry on top of what has been a really good recruitment season for them.”

Arizona: Kirkpatrick announced a challenge to GOP Sen. John McCain near the end of May. And while she was not recruited to run, Democrats say her decision to challenge McCain gives their party its best shot in decades at defeating the incumbent — despite Arizona’s Republican lean.

Florida: Rep. Patrick Murphy announced in March he’d run for Senate in Florida. At the time, he expected to face GOP Sen. Marco Rubio. But Rubio announced a bid for president just a few weeks later, creating an open-seat opportunity in a state President Barack Obama won twice, moving this race to a Tossup in the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call race ratings.

Illinois: Rep. Tammy Duckworth announced her plans to challenge Republican Sen. Mark S. Kirk in March, giving Democrats their preferred recruit in Illinois — a state that strongly leans Democratic in presidential years. Democrats say Duckworth, a war veteran and double amputee, provides the best contrast to Kirk, also a veteran who is disabled after suffering a stroke in January 2012. Kirk is the only senator whose seat is already projected to flip party control, with the race rated Tilts Democratic.

Missouri: Secretary of State Jason Kander announced in February he would challenge GOP Sen. Roy Blunt in the Show Me State. Kander, a 34-year-old Iraq War veteran, has the kind of profile that could play well in the right environment, despite Missouri’s GOP lean.

Nevada: After Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid announced he would retire in 2016, Democrats in April secured a top-tier recruit in former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto. Masto is Reid’s preferred candidate, and he thinks she has the best chance to succeed him in the Senate.

Ohio: Former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland announced a bid against freshman GOP Sen. Rob Portman in February. Strickland is a well-known name in the Buckeye State, having served six terms in the House and one term as governor from 2007 to 2011. With Obama having won Ohio twice, Democrats see Portman’s seat as a top pickup opportunity next fall.

Pennsylvania: After spending months searching for an alternative to former Rep. Joe Sestak, whose unconventional approach to campaigns has not endeared him to Democratic leaders, Katie McGinty announced a bid for Pennsylvania Senate in July. A former aide to Gov. Tom Wolf and former Gov. Ed Rendell, Democrats say McGinty has a strong base of support as she seeks to take on GOP Sen. Patrick J. Toomey in a state Democrats have won at the presidential level since 1992.

Three Democratic senators opted not to run for governor in their respective states: Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Joe Manchin III of West Virginia. If any of the three had left their seats vacant in those red states, Democrats’ chances at regaining the majority in the Senate would have been slim, as their seats would have likely switched party control in special elections.

A handful of the Senate candidates national Democrats recruited face primaries for the nomination in their states. In Florida, Murphy faces what’s already amounted to an ugly primary from fellow Rep. Alan Grayson. And in Pennsylvania, McGinty is vying for the nod against Sestak and Braddock Mayor John Fetterman. Duckworth and Strickland also face Democratic primary opponents, but remain strong favorites to secure the Democratic nominations.

But Democratic operatives say the recruitment slate the DSCC pulled together gives the party its best chance at winning back control of the Senate in 2016.

“You cannot overstate the importance of candidate recruitment and what the DSCC has done in 2015 is very impressive,” said Senate Majority PAC Communications Director Shripal Shah. “It’s one of the committee’s most important responsibilities and they’ve been nearly flawless.”

The DSCC’s recruitment success will make other Democratic campaign committees’ jobs tougher.

With Murphy and Kirkpatrick’s Senate bids, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee faces an uphill climb at keeping its Republican-leaning House seats.
Click to expand...

This doesn't even include Indiana, where Baron Hill is the D's best shot.

And then that pesky, other state:

http://atr.rollcall.com/democrats-still-seek-strong-challenger-burr-north-carolina/

With the Democratic primary in North Carolina less than six months away, the party still isn’t united behind a candidate to try to knock off GOP Sen. Richard Burr. And some Democrats are concerned that time is running out.

“I don’t see Burr as being vulnerable in the state, six months before my primary, 60 days before my filing deadline,” North Carolina Democratic consultant Brad Crone said.


“And part of that is that Democrats are so focused on the governor’s race,” Crone added. “If there’s a prize to be won in the state, I think they’d much rather it be the governor’s race,” in which incumbent Pat McCrory is seen as vulnerable and Democrats have put up a competitive candidate.

In a Public Policy Polling poll released last week, no hypothetical Democrat comes close to challenging Burr, who has a 29 percent approval rating. At the same time, McCrory holds only a small lead over Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper, but carries a disapproval rating of of 47 percent.

It could be that it’s just too early for a generic undefined Democrat to register in the Senate polls.

Democrats in the state believe that former state Rep. Deborah Ross, who resigned from her job as general counsel to the Research Triangle’s transportation agency last week, will make an announcement soon. A progressive former state legislator, she’s expected to enthuse the base and raise money in a way that other potential candidates who have expressed interest cannot.

There is one Democrat already in the race, and others expected to get in soon. Chris Rey, the mayor of Spring Lake, a town of 13,000 outside Fort Bragg, announced his candidacy on Sept. 21. The Iraq War veteran trails all other potential Democratic challengers in the PPP poll, although most Democrats are only separated by a point or two.

“Being a substantive female from the largest media market in the state” will give Ross the advantage in the primary, one North Carolina Democratic consultant said.

“In a short turnaround primary, which is essentially five months from today, it will be very difficult for some of these other folks to make a serious challenge,” he added.

Ross’ resignation was effective Oct. 2, but she’s resisted establishing a timetable for her decision-making process. “It’s better to be deliberate on the front end than make an impulse decision,” Ross told CQ Roll Call in late August.

Especially with presidential candidates pushing up the cost of media buys in the state, the same Democratic consultant said that Ross’ appeal to the liberal donor base will be crucial. Her challenge, he said, “is to raise enough money to get those [outside] groups confident that there’s going to be a real competitive election.”

Forty percent of North Carolina voters disapprove of Burr in the PPP poll, which national Democrats believe gives them an opening in this Lean Republican contest.

But some Democrats are worried that if Ross is the nominee, she’ll be too liberal to make the contest competitive. In PPP’s hypothetical matchup, Ross pulls 34 percent to Burr’s 45 percent. Ross could not be reached for comment last week.

“We are a purple state,” said another North Carolina Democrat. “You cannot win unless you get that moderate independent voter.”

Right now, the leading Democrat in the hypothetical matchups is former Rep. Heath Shuler, who trails Burr by just 5 points. A former NFL quarterback who represented the 11th District for three terms, Shuler enjoys higher name recognition than the other potential Democratic candidates but still only registers at about 35 percent.

Democrats in the state don’t expect Shuler, now senior vice president for government affairs at Duke Energy, to mount a bid. “I am enjoying my work at Duke Energy, a great company, and that is my focus,” he told CQ Roll Call via a spokesman in August.

The North Carolina General Assembly wrapped its session in the wee hours of the morning on Sept. 30, which frees up state legislators mulling a bid to give greater thought to their political ambitions.

State Sen. Joel Ford, the former chairman of the Mecklenburg County Democratic Party, told CQ Roll Call on Sept. 30 that he’s still weighing a challenge to Burr, and now that the session is over he’ll have more time to make his decision.

But not too much time. “It’s going to have to be soon,” Ford said, now that the state’s primaries have been moved up to March 15. That means the filing period now begins on Dec. 1.

Ford was not tested in the PPP poll.

State Rep. Duane Hall trailed Burr, 45 percent to 35 percent, and although Democrats in the state are dubious that he’ll actually run, he told CQ Roll Call on Friday, “I am still considering it, though it’s getting late.” He expects to make a decision in the next 10 days.

Now that the legislative session has concluded, he’ll be making calls to gauge support, including to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “They haven’t made a decision yet,” Hall said.

Democrats have been without a top challenger since former Sen. Kay Hagan passed on the race this summer, but they’re optimistic that there’s still time for someone who hasn’t held statewide or federal office to get in the race and defeat Burr in a presidential year.

“After two decades in Washington, North Carolinians still can’t point to a single thing Senator Burr has done for their state,” said Justin Barasky, DSCC communications director.

Democrats must net five seats to win control of the Senate. On Monday, they finally landed the candidate they’d been waiting on in New Hampshire when Gov. Maggie Hassan entered the race against Sen. Kelly Ayotte.

For Republicans looking to defend and expand their Senate majority, recruitment in Colorado has proved to be the most troublesome.
Click to expand...
 
R

RustyNails

Member
ivysaur12 said:
On the DSCC's almost pitch-perfect recruiting:

Florida: Rep. Patrick Murphy announced in March he’d run for Senate in Florida. At the time, he expected to face GOP Sen. Marco Rubio. But Rubio announced a bid for president just a few weeks later, creating an open-seat opportunity in a state President Barack Obama won twice, moving this race to a Tossup in the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call race ratings.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Wait. Marco has to give up his senate seat when running for president? Wow, he really staked his career on this.
 
N

noshten

Member
Why Hillary Clinton is more progressive than Bernie Sanders, in one sentence

Bernie Sanders attracted a 20,000-person crowd in Boston over the weekend with his uncreative wish list of a platform, in which college would be free for all, Social Security would be expanded for all and medical coverage would be highly subsidized for all — regardless of whether you actually need the help. Hillary Clinton finally pushed back Monday against “progressives” who propose shoveling public benefits at rich and poor alike. One sentence in particular drew a clear distinction between her campaign and Sanders’s:

“I am not in favor of making college free for Donald Trump’s kids,” she said, after explaining that “I’m a little different from those who say free college for everybody.”

She then pitched her college affordability proposal, which would allow students to graduate debt free but wouldn’t end tuition or work requirements. Clinton’s system would be means-tested: Those who can afford to invest in their educations would have to. Sanders’s wouldn’t be.

Sanders’s platform isn’t visionary, it’s dull. Rather than devising smart solutions that target scarce federal resources where they’re most needed, he wants to waste massive amounts of money Congress wouldn’t ever give him — and shouldn’t — to provide benefits to a lot of people who don’t need them. The government already spends astounding amounts subsidizing the housing, education, health care and retirement of the upper and upper-middle classes through tax breaks for mortgage interest, cut-rate student loans, in-state tuition, the tax exemption for employer-provided health-care, universal Medicare and universal Social Security. That’s billions upon billions every year that could go into anti-poverty programs, research or roads without raising taxes. Rather than scaling back this nonprogressive nonsense, Sanders proposes to double down on it — just as the impending retirement of the boomers is straining the social programs we already have and just as the country’s infrastructure requires upgrading.

Yes, Sanders proposes raising taxes significantly. But he hasn’t said how he would raise nearly the amount he has proposed to spend, and his platform would require raising taxes on the middle class, not just the rich, to pay for universal benefits.

Yes, Sanders’s backers insist that his government expansion would save the country a lot on health care and other things. Even assuming they’re right, Sanders could still reform industries while refusing to subsidize the rich any more than is necessary to ensure universal access to needed services.

Yes, Sanders doesn’t see a problem with massively increasing the amount of gross domestic product that the government spends. But even assuming his expansion of the state doesn’t open significant new opportunities for wasteful special interest rent-seeking and rule-bending, there’s still no excuse for poorly targeted policy. Once you ramp up taxation for one set of programs, you make it harder to obtain more money for other worthy causes — or, if your ideology allows, to leave the great bulk of national wealth in the private economy.

Real progressives seek to show that government can operate smartly, not haphazardly. Real progressives spend money on urgent needs, not on the rich.

But it’s hard to attract huge crowds by calling for reasonableness.
Click to expand...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...gressive-than-bernie-sanders-in-one-sentence/

Jeez I though she was a self proclaimed moderate a month ago
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
SourShoes said:
Rand Paul doesn't have to give up his. He has a simultaneous senate campaign right now. Maybe it's a state-by-state thing.

True. He has one of the worst attendance records in the senate.
Click to expand...

Rand Paul has the same problem. If he somehow became the nominee he would have to give up his senate seat. Rand Paul's work around for the primary is paying for a caucus which he did. He will be on the KY primary cacus ballot for President in March while a Senate primary in May.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Las7 said:
Why Hillary Clinton is more progressive than Bernie Sanders, in one sentence



http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...gressive-than-bernie-sanders-in-one-sentence/

Jeez I though she was a self proclaimed moderate a month ago
Click to expand...

This is why I hate think pieces and bullshit click journalism. Hell, it's why I don't even click articles with titles that start with the word "Why" or "What."

Clinton is more progressive than Sanders...because of one issue. Man I wish there was a competent challenger...
 
N

noshten

Member
ivysaur12 said:
I would say she's a self-proclaimed pragmatist. Those things are different.
Click to expand...

September 10, 2015
Clinton - "You know, I get accused of being kind of moderate and center,I plead guilty."

PhoenixDark said:
This is why I hate think pieces and bullshit click journalism. Hell, it's why I don't even click articles with titles that start with the word "Why" or "What."

Clinton is more progressive than Sanders...because of one issue. Man I wish there was a competent challenger...
Click to expand...

It's funny thought - next level trolling
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Las7 said:
September 10, 2015
Clinton - "You know, I get accused of being kind of moderate and center,I plead guilty."
Click to expand...

Shrug. Doesn't really describe her at all, except in her views on foreign policy, but whatever.

The Left has already convinced themselves that Clinton is the devil that it's moot to even try to fight that image.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
ivysaur12 said:
Shrug. Doesn't really describe her at all, except in her views on foreign policy, but whatever.

The Left has already convinced themselves that Clinton is the devil that it's moot to even try to fight that image.
Click to expand...

One wise lefty once told me "The only difference between Hillary and the Republicans is merely negotiating lubricant" & that "a vote to a subpar candidate is to be complicit in their mediocrity."
 
D

Daniel B·

Banned
Las7 said:
Why Hillary Clinton is more progressive than Bernie Sanders, in one sentence

“I am not in favor of making college free for Donald Trump’s kids,” she said, after explaining that “I’m a little different from those who say free college for everybody.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...gressive-than-bernie-sanders-in-one-sentence/
Click to expand...

O.k, Let's see if I can redeem myself ;).

I would say that's a massive fail, by Hillary, as Bernie is proposing to make "public" university education free, not "private" Ivy League schools, such as the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, as attended by Ivanka Trump.
 
Tarkus

Tarkus

Member
Daniel B·;180926940 said:
O.k, Let's see if I can redeem myself ;).

I would say that's a massive fail, by Hillary, as Bernie is proposing to make "public" university education free, not "private" Ivy League schools, such as the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, as attended by Ivanka Trump.
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Can public schools become private all of a sudden? If so, I'm afraid that would be the case under Bernie's plan.
 
B

Butts-a-plenty

Banned
Dr. Carson, he's a nice guy, of course. But he just doesn't get the big picture, nope, he just don't get it. The things he's saying, his ideas, that come out of his mouth...I had a great idea once, I was touring the border and you could see them, all the bad people, nobody to stop them, so, I thought...we'll build a wall...you heard it, a wall...his ideas, just don't work for America. They're a bad deal, and I know a thing or two about making deals...I wrote the art of the deal, wonderful book, all you need to know about making deals...his ideas aren't what we need...they won't make america great again.
 
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