I'm not.
This election on the GOP side is going to come down to Trump vs. Rubio.
I'm quite scared of Rubio in the GE. I think he will be a formidable Presidential candidate.
Carson will fade eventually.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print
- Thread starter ivysaur12
- Start date
- Status
This election on the GOP side is going to come down to Trump vs. Rubio.
I'm quite scared of Rubio in the GE. I think he will be a formidable Presidential candidate.
Carson will fade eventually.
I have literally no sympathy for the people of Kansas. They knew who they were voting for.
And_Gignac
Member
Yes, why wouldnt he? It is normal for winners of the first primaries to make significant gains in the upcoming ones, demographics aside.
Poportional allocation will make him remain competitive after Super Tuesday, imo. Clinton will carry most states but not decisively. Again, this is just speculation based on him having commanding victories in Iowa/NH and not being completely humilliated in the upcoming debates lol.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Don't Diablos on this one. Rubio won't be any more formidable than any other GOP candidate. They are all tainted by absolutely terrible positions on innumerable issues. By nature of the party, they all have to do it to win the nomination, only for it to be their death-knell in the GE.
Romney in the GE would have been scary had he just kept his mouth shut and maintained "moderate" positions and governance like he did in Massachusetts. Instead, you saw what he had to do to win over the half of the GOP who live in the 19th century.
Avon Barksdale
Member
Rubio is to Obama as Harold Miner was to Michael Jordan.
shinra-bansho
Member
I don't know why you'd set demographics aside. They're currently his Achilles' heel.
If he doesn't make inroads with non-white voters then even if he were to win IA and NH by 2:1, which at this stage doesn't seem likely, the delegate lead would basically be wiped away by Clinton winning at her current polling advantage (which still includes Biden) in South Carolina.
The Super Tuesday states with >35% non-white vote comprise around 700 delegates - which she is winning in polling by 20, 30, 40+ point margins, again still including Biden - to the 400 or so that have less than that (and of the latter she would likely win Arkansas easily and is polling at a 2:1 advantage in delegate-rich Massachusetts.)
Bubba lost both and went on to win.
Gore, the sitting VP and establishment candidate, won the two and kept on winning primaries.
Kerry, the establishment candidate, won the two and kept on winning primaries.
Obama's win in IA essentially convinced black Democrats that he was sufficiently electable to be the first black President, and he started carrying this large voting bloc. His wins in small states, while being highly competitive in large delegate-rich states is how he outmaneuvered Clinton. After winning SC he gained public backing from people like Ted Kennedy.
Of these, the only one that one would really point to that Sanders as a more insurgent candidacy would be trying to emulate is Obama's history-making campaign.
What about winning IA and NH brings these voters on-board for Sanders?
What specifically about winning the two states wipes away the types of large double-digit leads she holds in those Super Tuesday states?
Is it simply the fact that he won these two early states that should be enough to sway these other states with much more diverse electorates? Is it that you expect perception turning towards Sanders being more electable or more competent on various issues than Clinton were he to win these two states?
Retromelon
Member
'Building a wall on the canadian border' will never not make me smile
Lol pd you're so great at prediction.
Lol pd you're so great at prediction.
Aaron Strife
Banned
"Rubio = Obama" only works if you focus on just the most superficial elements of their candidacies. I know Rubio seems formidable because there are many swing voters who are fucking idiots who vote on those superficialities, but he brings nothing new to the table other than having a baby face.
Obama's expressed beliefs on the campaign trail (raising taxes on the upper brackets, increasing domestic spending, implementing some sort of universal healthcare system, getting out of the war in Iraq, support for legalized abortion and civil unions) were largely shared by the median voter. Rubio's are not.
The vision Obama laid out for America was a stark contrast to how Bush and even Clinton (somewhat) governed. Every grand reform proposal of Obama's ties back to a central theme that he could convey to the American people. Compare that to the Republican plan. Repeal or reverse all the legislation/policies Obama implemented and then what? How does repealing Obamacare fit into a broader narrative other than an explicitly anti-Obama one? Rubio, like the other Republicans lacks a coherent vision.
Furthermore I don't believe the median voter perceives Obama's presidency as a fuck up, even if they don't view it as a rousing success, which means this is much less of a change election than 2008 was. Plus Democrats have an advantage in the electoral college to the point where if they just win Virginia it's pretty much locked up. Ohio and Florida don't decide presidential elections anymore.
tl;dr stop diablosing
Obama's expressed beliefs on the campaign trail (raising taxes on the upper brackets, increasing domestic spending, implementing some sort of universal healthcare system, getting out of the war in Iraq, support for legalized abortion and civil unions) were largely shared by the median voter. Rubio's are not.
The vision Obama laid out for America was a stark contrast to how Bush and even Clinton (somewhat) governed. Every grand reform proposal of Obama's ties back to a central theme that he could convey to the American people. Compare that to the Republican plan. Repeal or reverse all the legislation/policies Obama implemented and then what? How does repealing Obamacare fit into a broader narrative other than an explicitly anti-Obama one? Rubio, like the other Republicans lacks a coherent vision.
Furthermore I don't believe the median voter perceives Obama's presidency as a fuck up, even if they don't view it as a rousing success, which means this is much less of a change election than 2008 was. Plus Democrats have an advantage in the electoral college to the point where if they just win Virginia it's pretty much locked up. Ohio and Florida don't decide presidential elections anymore.
tl;dr stop diablosing
neurosisxeno
Member
People like Sanders policy, but they don't think he can win. This isn't just among white voters, it's among everyone. Him winning NH and IA will see a boost across all demographics because people will stop thinking of him as a fringe candidate (which most places refer to him as exclusively) and start thinking he has a chance.
Even in this very thread people just can't comprehend Sanders having a chance against Hillary. His debate performance wasn't great, but it was still better than most of the GOP candidates performances, and he had a lot of good moments. From the discussion in here you'd think he came out as a Gay Muslim Serial Killer on stage and punched Hllary while screaming "death to the whites!" But unfortunately, none of that happened and he's polling exactly where he was pre-debate--with some gains and losses here and there. The point of the first debate was exposure, and he got that, once he's going head to head with Hillary he'll actually be able to take some shots at her.
Oh man, Harold Miner. Only time I hear that name is in the classic Hip Hop hooray song from like 20 years ago.
RastaMentality
Banned
Trump's bubble is something fierce.
EDIT: I'm fucking dying over here:
Newsflash: general election polling this far out is worthless.
Trump's bubble is something fierce.
EDIT: I'm fucking dying over here:
Trump's bubble is something fierce.
EDIT: I'm fucking dying over here:
Wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait.
Did they just look at a national poll with a result of 70% to Trump and 30% of Hillary, then spread its result equally along all States in the Electoral College and call it a day!?
With like, no regard to how the fucking Electoral College works at all?
Oh man, November 5th 2012 might have popped some bubbles, but November 5th 2016 is going to shatter some fucking realities.
No, they took a poll that said 52% Trump, 46% Clinton and used a turnout model to estimate the electoral college. 70/30 is the EV split.
Ah ok, that link isn't very clear on that turnout method but I guess I should have expected that when it says "Hitlery Clinton".
I love that map. Good stuff. Give 'em hope.. so that it can be crushed.
====
Meanwhile, Joe Trippi is high as hell on Hillary this morning. He's posted a link to Mark Halperin's latest:
The Most Likely Next President Is Hillary Clinton
It's a decent article outlining her structural advantages, contrasts with the GOP's predicament, and notes on how her operation has changed since 2008. We called this stuff "Hopium" back in 2008.. I guess we need a new term for Hillary and 2016.
(I really hope someone ends-up posting it over at FrfeeRepublic. I love it when they're presented with stuff like this!)
====
Meanwhile, Joe Trippi is high as hell on Hillary this morning. He's posted a link to Mark Halperin's latest:
The Most Likely Next President Is Hillary Clinton
It's a decent article outlining her structural advantages, contrasts with the GOP's predicament, and notes on how her operation has changed since 2008. We called this stuff "Hopium" back in 2008.. I guess we need a new term for Hillary and 2016.
(I really hope someone ends-up posting it over at FrfeeRepublic. I love it when they're presented with stuff like this!)
Coriolanus
Banned
Wow, that's his slogan?
Fits him like a pair of baseballs pants.
Why would anything you said matter if you even admit many voters will be swayed by superficialities? 2016 is going to be closer than 2012 I think.
You're right in how Obama laid out his vision but voters have short-term memories. We are not as young as we were in 2008. I.e. I am not in the 'under 30' age bracket anymore. There seems to be a more profound conservative youth vote out there waiting to help the Rubio campaign though. He's young and charismatic compared to Clinton.
PlayALLtheGames
Banned
Wow, that's his slogan?
Sounds like Christie was doing a little too much "Telling it like it is" and got kicked out of an Amtrak quiet car. What a fucking tool. http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/25/politics/chris-christie-amtrak-quiet-car/index.html
shinra-bansho
Member
I don't think he's a fringe candidate. Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb were fringe candidates. Martin O'Malley may as well drop out now too.
He has a substantial core electoral base. It just isn't big enough in itself to win the Democratic nomination, and hasn't been as far as I can tell for other left-flanking candidates in the recent past either with the exception of Obama, who had a unique set of circumstances that enabled him to build a coalition between young liberal activists and black Democrats.
I'm not actually entirely convinced that non-white voters like Sander's policies more than Clinton's and simply don't think he's electable enough. It largely seems like they like Clinton, like her policies and think she's the most electable. Similarly for white moderates and/or conservatives in the voting base.
Which leads to my query around what specifically changes in the electoral calculus if he were to win those two early states?
For instance would they start liking Sanders more than Clinton and start thinking he's more electable?
Would he also then need to win Nevada and South Carolina heading into Super Tuesday?
And which states would swing enough his way to keep him competitive beyond that date?
Its a game of survival. His campaign keeps living with a double win in IA and NH to fight on and sinks if he loses the first 4.
Coriolanus
Banned
The Favorables thing is a bit weird because bernie remains with both lower favorables and unfavorables than her, with the inversion being that his fav is still above the unfav. The situation for hills seems to be improving drastically, but she's still underwater there. So the problem of not knowing enough about him seems to still be in place, and yes, winning both IA and NH, unlikely though that may be, would most likely help with that regard.
Alas, can't see an option to divide the huffpol aggregates by minorities.
Alas, can't see an option to divide the huffpol aggregates by minorities.
User 463088
Banned
How can you ignore demographics? You cannot set Demographics aside and just pretend that everyone will feel the Bern if he eeks out a win in Iowa and New Hampshire. (Neither of them will have commanding victories in either state either.)
Bumps in winning a primary typically only help if you're already within striking distance(In this type of race where Hillary can be considered, for all intents and purposes, an incumbent). They're not great at entirely changing the narrative of the race. Take SC in 2008. While Hillary was polling ahead of Obama around this time, she only had a 10 point advantage among non-white voters. She's currently at a 50-60% advantage, once we remove and reallocate Biden's supporters at the typically seen 2:1 advantage. So, Sanders winning lily white Iowa and neighboring New Hampshire is going to change people's perceptions?
OF course, this rests on the idea that the only reason people don't support him is electability. This is false. That may be one metric people use, but it's not the only one. Things were different for President Obama for obvious reasons.
I'd also like to think that the smaller field hurts Sanders more than Clinton. The only place Sanders can go for votes is Clinton. So, he has to somehow draw supporters away from her without pissing the people who support her off. (That is, if someone identifies as a Clinton supporter, they like her (regardless of the calculus). He can't go super negative and hope to win them over.) There are also way fewer undecided voters this time. In SC in 2008, there were around 13% undecided at this time. This year, there's 1-2%. There's just no where for Sanders to really pull support.
I swear GAF is the nicest forum ever. Not sure how people see it as full of hateful liberals. You generally have to wade far into the deep end and insist on staying there to get banned. And there's always somebody there to explain the problem in essay format in case you don't understand why everyone is rolling their eyes at you.
theprodigy
Member
people don't like having their viewpoints challenged
User 463088
Banned
Hillary now also has a majority of Union members behind her. Click Me!
Also, I somehow just realized that in 2006 Bernie ran as a Democrat in the Democratic primary, won it, and then refused the nomination so he could still run as an Independent. Yes, it makes political sense, but what a ..... : edit :
That pisses me off so much more than it probably should. Now this guy wants to pretend to be a Democrat to lead the party? Ugh.
: writing another check to Hillary and on the memo line I'm putting "So you can be a bigger corporate shrill" just to piss some people off :
Also, I somehow just realized that in 2006 Bernie ran as a Democrat in the Democratic primary, won it, and then refused the nomination so he could still run as an Independent. Yes, it makes political sense, but what a ..... : edit :
That pisses me off so much more than it probably should. Now this guy wants to pretend to be a Democrat to lead the party? Ugh.
: writing another check to Hillary and on the memo line I'm putting "So you can be a bigger corporate shrill" just to piss some people off :
Aaron Strife
Banned
For the reasons I've outlined.
Interesting claim about youth voters being more conservative, do you have anything to back that up with or is it just a feeling? Because I wouldn't trust those.
If Obama was a Republican in 08 and McCain was a Democrat, Obama would have lost hard.
It's not like Trump is rising. He has fallen from his high as well. It is just Jeb has been collapsing. Trump hasn't moved up in a while. All nearly positive movement in Predictwise has been for Rubio.
Just a feeling. Anecdotal if you will.
It's ok you are doing a fine job without writing memos, hearts and mines
And_Gignac
Member
You sure have a thin skin if someone as inoffensive as Bernie can piss you off so much.
You don't need to write those checks though, I am sure she has enough money from her super PACs and corporate donors.
I set demographics aside because all demographics will react similarly to a Sanders upset in Iowa/NH, proportionally. minorities are not Clinton bots unable to react to new political developments, just like white college kid liberals are not Sanders fixed. They will react if the momentum swings back to Sanders, just like if Clinton wins she will probably make inroads with 18-30.
By how much? Probably enough to make Sanders campaign survive ST, but not enough to give Clinton a run for her money.
I am not making a roadmap to Bernie winning, just wanted to call out the ludicrous idea of her running "unopposed".
DOWN
Banned
Happy Birthday Hillary
A bit of truth for the New York Times
A+ to whoever on her team picked these photos for their weekly update
10 rad quotes http://www.ibtimes.com/happy-birthd...re-10-inspiring-quotes-celebrate-2016-2155666
and me
A bit of truth for the New York Times
A+ to whoever on her team picked these photos for their weekly update
10 rad quotes http://www.ibtimes.com/happy-birthd...re-10-inspiring-quotes-celebrate-2016-2155666
And_Gignac
Member
Dp
Happy birthday, DOWN! Hopefully you'll have a good next year lol
DOWN
Banned
Thank you, I pray my year goes as well as Hillary's third week of October 2015
User 463088
Banned
You sure have a thin skin if someone as inoffensive as Bernie can piss you off so much.
You don't need to write those checks though, I am sure she has enough money from her super PACs and corporate donors.
I'm definitely not thin skinned, although I think it's obvious why I, an actual Democrat, think what Sanders did was rather shitty. Yes, it makes sense politically, but it still takes quite a bit of hubris to now pretend he gets to lead the party. He didn't need to run in the Dem primary for Senate. He could have just run as an independent.
These types of things actually do matter to the people who do the grunt work to get someone elected President. People were (rightfully) rather pissed at the way he walked out of the J-J Dinner. He is making absolutely no friends within the Democratic party. This isn't Vermont. The DNC won't give him a free pass on every single thing. While he continues to say that this isn't all about him, he needs to actually show it a bit.
I also ear marked this donation to go to the Hillary Victory Fund. That way, it's evenly split between her campaign and my state's Democratic party.
Happy Birthday.
QuiteWhittle
Member
Jay Dardenne's communications director endorsed John Bel Edwards for governor.
I hope Dardenne joins her but he probably wants some future in the Republican party.
I hope Dardenne joins her but he probably wants some future in the Republican party.
She won't be around after the '16 election cycle. Nothing is going to happen before that.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Because he has a long history of behavior that suggests he tries to make people like/respect him, which is typical of children who grew up with absent fathers or uncaring mothers. 7 years in and he's still trying to make republicans like him.
Those comments by the FBI director are unacceptable.
RustyNails
Member
Lol,the republican thread got locked because some fiesty liberals were being jerkoffs
Edit: and corianlus got banned. Good night, sweet prince
Oh now PD is a psychiatrist.
j_k_redtail
Member
+1.
I feel like this'll actually hurt his fundraising efforts. Fact is, the the GOP nominee (whoever s/he is) is likely to lose to Hillary Clinton, so donors are buying future influence more than anything else. What type of political future does Rubio have planned if he loses? If the answer is "none", then why would big donors give them their money?
He's been psycho analyzing shit for a loooooong time
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked