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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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xbhaskarx

Member
This is pretty crazy... Sanders polling better at this point than Obama was eight years ago:
DZFHGZN.png
 

Ecotic

Member
Prediction: Sanders won't unexpectedly win Iowa then drop one of the hottest political campaign speeches in history.

Bernie might can win both Iowa and New Hampshire though, that's about as good or better. It's definitely a possibility that Hillary's team had better be preparing for. Winning both probably won't be enough for Bernie to win the nomination but he'll have a puncher's chance.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Bernie might can win both Iowa and New Hampshire though, that's about as good or better. It's definitely a possibility that Hillary's team had better be preparing for. Winning both probably won't be enough for Bernie to win the nomination but he'll have a puncher's chance.

Unless he's able to change the dynamic of the race wins in Iowa and New Hampshire won't mean squat. A win in New Hampshire is especially meaningless as his home state is right next door, he practically has home field advantage, if he is unable to win there he should just end the campaign after the result is called.
 
Feeling bummed about new polls? Here have some hopium from NBC/Marist/Telemundo

Clinton 53
Trump 40

Clinton 50
Rubio 44

Clinton 49
Bush 45

Clinton 52
Cruz 41

Biden 56
Trump 38

Biden 50
Rubio 42

Biden 50
Bush 42

Biden 54
Cruz 39

Also among Latinos, Clinton beats Trump 69-22 and Biden beats Trump 71-20.

Someone needs to get them the memo that Trump is winning this thing.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Feeling bummed about new polls? Here have some hopium from NBC/Marist/Telemundo

Clinton 53
Trump 40

Clinton 50
Rubio 44

Clinton 49
Bush 45

Clinton 52
Cruz 41

Biden 56
Trump 38

Biden 50
Rubio 42

Biden 50
Bush 42

Biden 54
Cruz 39

Also among Latinos, Clinton beats Trump 69-22 and Biden beats Trump 71-20.

Someone needs to get them the memo that Trump is winning this thing.

I selectively choose to believe this poll over any others.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Sorry for the day-late reply. I'm not used to this thread moving as quickly as it has in the last 36 hours.

The US doesn't have them! They're not party to them. It's like asking for a japan and south Korea's secret agreements. They're not ours.

And the bolded is clearly trolling as I posted a few weeks ago. And no I don't.

"The US doesn't have them" is no answer. The president is responsible for the current situation, in which he is required to produce a document that he allegedly can't. He signed Corker-Cardin into law, no doubt after reading it and having it vetted by his legal team. His Secretary of State was responsible for the US' participation in the Iran negotiations, aware of the law's requirements once it was enacted. If he doesn't have the IAEA agreement, then that's a problem, not a solution.

What's more, even if it's impossible for the president to provide the IAEA deal, there is no "impossibility" exception to Corker-Cardin. Instead, his failure to provide the deal--for whatever reason--means the period for review never commences. As a consequence, the president is (1) prohibited--by the law he agreed to--to provide any "statutory sanctions relief," or (2) acting completely outside of Corker-Cardin, and so relying on his own authority without Congress' implicit consent.

And what you bolded was a hypothetical. You framed your response to me as a general rule that it is never worth it to try to swing votes in Congress once sufficient support (or opposition, in this case) is apparent. That's a bad rule, and creates a self-fulfilling prophecy of failure. The only way you could seriously believe it is if you believed that there could never be undisclosed information about a bill or treaty or what-have-you that, if it were made known, would change a person's vote. I chose a hypothetical scenario that you were clearly quite opposed to--I remember how eager you were to discount the AP's story. If you don't find that scenario disturbing enough, or if, like ivysaur12 and pigeon, you don't think such vote-changing provisions are likely included in the IAEA agreement, then just imagine another undisclosed side-agreement with terms so bad that no Democrat could ever support them (perhaps it requires Iran to give Iranian corporations free speech rights, for instance).

What parts of the IAEA side deal do you think would change opinions, exactly?

I can no more tell you what parts of the deal would change opinions than you can tell me that there are none. I haven't seen it. Neither have you. Neither have any of the members of Congress who are voting on whether to approve the Iran deal or not. Being unable to consult the agreement itself and argue that it contains only acceptable provisions, you and APK are forced to argue that, ultimately, this part of the deal just isn't that important:

The side deals aren't controversial and don't change anything material about the deal

In either case, though, there are no particular reasons to care about the Parchin inspections, since it's a dead site and the only reason the IAEA's checking it out is to verify Iran's self-reporting about their nuclear program. So no, I don't really think it will change any votes.

That's a politically convenient fiction, but it's a fiction nevertheless. We know that because President Obama highlighted this aspect of the nuclear deal in his speech July 14th:

Barack Obama said:
[T]he IAEA has also reached an agreement with Iran to get access that it needs to complete its investigation into the possible military dimensions of Iran’s past nuclear research.

We know it from how it was discussed by John Kerry and other State Department personnel before it became politically inconvenient to tell the truth:

PBS Newshour said:
JUDY WOODRUFF: Still, another issue; the International Atomic Energy Agency has said for a long time that it wants Iran to disclose past military-related nuclear activities. Iran is increasingly looking like it’s not going to do this. Is the U.S. prepared to accept that?

JOHN KERRY: No. They have to do it. It will be done. If there’s going to be a deal; it will be done.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Because it’s not there now.

JOHN KERRY: It will be done.

JUDY WOODRUFF: So that information will be released before June 30th, will be available.

JOHN KERRY: It will be part of a final agreement. It has to be.

U.S. Dept. of State said:
QUESTION: But you can’t say with definitive clarity at this point that, for example, inspectors will be allowed into Parchin?

MS. HARF: Well, we would find it, I think, very difficult to imagine a JCPA that did not require such access at Parchin.

We know it because 354 members of the House of Representatives wrote to Kerry in 2014 explaining why it's important (again, before the question became an issue of partisan dispute):

81% of the House of Representatives said:
We are concerned that an agreement that accepts Iran’s lack of transparency on this key issue would set the dangerous precedent that certain facilities and aspects of Iran’s nuclear program can be declared off limits by Tehran, resulting in additional wide-ranging restrictions on IAEA inspectors, and making effective verification virtually impossible.

A resolution of this issue is also essential to establishing a baseline regarding the status of the Iranian nuclear program. Accurate predictions of the period of time needed by Iran to assemble a weapon and assessments of Iran’s compliance cannot be made without highly reliable information obtained from an unrestricted inspection and verification regime. Such a baseline is also critical to developing more precise estimates on the time it would take Iran to develop a nuclear weapons capability without detection.

Perhaps most of all, we know it because of the role Iranian compliance with the IAEA's requirements has in the JCPOA. One of the key dates in the JCPOA is known as "Implementation Day." "Implementation Day" (PDF), as used in the JCPOA, is

the date on which, simultaneously with the IAEA report verifying implementation by Iran of the nuclear-related measures described in Sections 15.1. to 15.11 of Annex V, the EU and the United States take the actions described in Sections 16 and 17 of Annex V respectively and in accordance with the UN Security Council resolution, the actions described in Section 18 of Annex V occur at the UN level.

The actions to be taken by the United States in section 17 of Annex V (PDF) (16 relates to the EU) are:

17.1. Cease the application of the sanctions set forth in Sections 4.1 - 4.5 and 4.7 of Annex II, with the exception of Section 211(a) of the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act of 2012 (TRA);

17.2. Cease the application of the sanctions set forth in Section 4.6 of Annex II, in connection with activities consistent with this JCPOA, including trade with individuals and entities set forth in Attachment 3 to Annex II;

17.3. Remove individuals and entities set forth in Attachment 3 to Annex II from the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List (SDN List), the Foreign Sanctions Evaders List (FSE List), and/or the Non-SDN Iran Sanctions Act List as set forth in Section 4.8.1 of Annex II;

17.4. Terminate Executive Orders 13574, 13590, 13622, 13645 and Sections 5-7 and 15 of Executive Order 13628 as set forth in Section 4 of Annex II; and

17.5. License activities as set forth in Section 5 of Annex II.

The nuclear-related measures whose verification by the IAEA triggers the requirement that the U.S. take the actions described above include (section 15.9 in Annex V) Iran's completion of "the modalities and facilities-specific arrangements to allow the IAEA to implement all transparency measures provided for in Annex I." Included in that description is section 66 of Annex I (PDF), which requires Iran to "complete all activities as set out in paragraphs 2, 4, 5, and 6 of the 'Roadmap for Clarification of Past and Present Outstanding Issues.'” Paragraphs 2 and 4 of the Roadmap refer to "a separate arrangement that would allow [Iran and the IAEA] to address the remaining outstanding issues, as set out in the annex of the 2011 Director’s General report." Paragraph 5 refers to "another separate arrangement regarding the issue of Parchin." (Paragraph 6 refers back to the activities described in paragraphs 1 - 5.)

In sum, the above means that if Iran doesn't comply with the separate agreements with the IAEA, then the IAEA won't be able to verify Iran's compliance, and "Implementation Day" will never arrive. In other words, compliance with the IAEA's side agreements is a necessary prerequisite to having the sanctions described above lifted (along with the EU and UN sanctions described elsewhere). That suggests that the IAEA's PMD and Parchin agreements are pretty important, and belies recent attempts to paint them as anything but.
 

Iolo

Member
Mephistopheles, since you're a day late you may not have seen the Reuters article stating that IAEA personnel will be present when Iran takes samples at Parchin. In other words the bogus AP article and the idea of Iran self-inspection is a big nothingburger... but truthers will continue to believe it.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Mephistopheles, since you're a day late you may not have seen the Reuters article stating that IAEA personnel will be present when Iran takes samples at Parchin. In other words the bogus AP article and the idea of Iran self-inspection is a big nothingburger... but truthers will continue to believe it.

I'm not relying on the AP article or the AP's claims about the IAEA agreements. My arguments are that (1) the president's failure to provide the IAEA side agreements means the review period under Corker-Cardin has not yet begun; and (2) the issues purportedly resolved by the IAEA side agreements are important components of the entire Iran deal.

Well why didn't you just say so?

I missed this since you didn't actually quote me, so the quotation wasn't highlighted. I'm not merely stating with whom I agree. I'm providing arguments for the conclusions I think are correct. If you think they're incorrect, provide your arguments. Otherwise, why even comment?
 
Feeling bummed about new polls? Here have some hopium from NBC/Marist/Telemundo

Clinton 53
Trump 40

Clinton 50
Rubio 44

Clinton 49
Bush 45

Clinton 52
Cruz 41

Biden 56
Trump 38

Biden 50
Rubio 42

Biden 50
Bush 42

Biden 54
Cruz 39

Also among Latinos, Clinton beats Trump 69-22 and Biden beats Trump 71-20.

Someone needs to get them the memo that Trump is winning this thing.

A telemundo poll? Trump is gonna have a field day with this.
 
Just got the notification

20150912082013583.png


Keep in mind this aggregate tracks over 130 polls from all the major pollsters. As the trend shows, Bernie's support continues to eat away at Hillary's in the national polls.

Can the streams cross? And if they do, how soon do you think they will? I'm going to predict that if the streams haven't crossed by the first debate, it will happen that week. I just don't see Bernie's momentum slowing down yet, and it seems to be having an adverse effect on Hillary's. I guess we'll see in a few weeks!
 
A telemundo poll? Trump is gonna have a field day with this.

He will just ignore it like he does almost all general election polling

Can the streams cross? And if they do, how soon do you think they will? I'm going to predict that if the streams haven't crossed by the first debate, it will happen that week. I just don't see Bernie's momentum slowing down yet, and it seems to be having an adverse effect on Hillary's. I guess we'll see in a few weeks!

I wouldn't put any money on that if I was you
 

Maledict

Member
Well that's one interpretation. Another is she had every advantage and the slightest competence in any of 10 different areas could have saved her from defeat.

-She emphasized experience in a change election
-She didn't apologize for the Iraq War vote early like John Edwards did to get get it out of the way
-She didn't understand how delegates were won
-She didn't take the caucuses or small states seriously
-She didn't prepare past Super Tuesday and let Obama run up 10 straight victories in February before she recovered
-She misused Bill so bad that Ted Kennedy felt insulted after a phone call and endorsed Obama and Bill routinely damaged the campaign with black voters
-Her campaign never treated Iowa as a must win and instead came in third
-She completely abandoned South Carolina after winning New Hampshire and let Obama lock in unreal margins with black voters for the rest of the primary season.

Her 2008 campaign was truly a disaster. It really was a classic example of an underdog winning because he did everything right within his power and the champion took it for granted and had the worst game of her life.

Your wrong about Iowa. She sunk over £20m into the state. Once that memo had been released contemplating leaving Iowa she had no choice but to go all in. The problem was that Obama changed the landscape of the caucus massively, pulling in vast amounts of new voters who had never engaged before.

She also didn't abandon Sotuh Carolina - if you remember, that's where Bill Clinton had gotten into such an awful mess, with his infamous melt down on camera about how the press was treating Obama versus Hillary and the race card. They ended up pulling out after that disaster.

You are absolutely right about 2008 being a disaster - it's amusing how little anyone, including the press and a lot of democrats, knew about the actual process. Obama won because his team had some freaking amazing rules lawyers in it, not becusse he crushed Hilary Into the ground even despite her terrible campaign team and lack of understanding of the rules.

(She got more votes and more states on Super Tuesday, yet less delegates - the system really didn't work like people thought it did, Particulary the caucus states where it was possible to run massive wins with very small numbers of people compared to what you got in return for millions of votes in California for example).

The democrat 2008 primaries really were an amazing spectacle to watch for people who love politics.
 

Maledict

Member
BTW, Bernie does use the classic press strategy of plugging his policies as an answer to every question, but this is purely strategic. He knows he has an awareness issue, therefore he seizes every opportunity to talk about the issues. He'll especially clamp down hard on the issues if he senses that the media is trying to bait him into attacking Hillary.

However, generally speaking, he's not there to debate with the interviewers. In an actual debate, he can be a cold, vicious viper! I've seen it too many times to count. He has plenty of debates on YouTube if you want to see for yourself. Personally, I think he's gonna hand Hillary her ass on a platter. Her corporatist speak and demographic pandering will not work in that space, and he's gonna call her out on her bullshit, you can guarantee it. This is why he's so eager to get the debates started. Hell, I'm eager to watch them!!

I know I'm a broken record on this, and apologise for those reading me post similar things repeatedly, but I cannot help but intervene.

Hilary is a very good debater. She handed Obama, and the rest of the field, their asses multiple times in 2008. She *shines* in debates, it's where her strengths come out. Despite what sanders supporters seem to think, Hilary is a detailed policy person - she knows it, she understands it and she's able to sell it. This weird illusion people have of Hilary being a right wing automaton just doesn't bear out when you look at how she campaigned in 2008 - her health care solution was better than Obama's and more left wing than his (and he ended up adopting it in the end).

Sanders has never participated in political debates at this level, not even once. She's been doing it since 1992. I'm not saying she is going to crush him (she won't), but it would be an incredible shock if he crushed her based on everything we know and her past performance.
 
It's really surreal seeing someone so misogynistic and racist on the fucking tonight show being cheered on by a crowd. It may as well be David Duke sitting up there and no one seems to care.

Just unreal.
 
I know I'm a broken record on this, and apologise for those reading me post similar things repeatedly, but I cannot help but intervene.

Hilary is a very good debater. She handed Obama, and the rest of the field, their asses multiple times in 2008. She *shines* in debates, it's where her strengths come out. Despite what sanders supporters seem to think, Hilary is a detailed policy person - she knows it, she understands it and she's able to sell it. This weird illusion people have of Hilary being a right wing automaton just doesn't bear out when you look at how she campaigned in 2008 - her health care solution was better than Obama's and more left wing than his (and he ended up adopting it in the end).

Sanders has never participated in political debates at this level, not even once. She's been doing it since 1992. I'm not saying she is going to crush him (she won't), but it would be an incredible shock if he crushed her based on everything we know and her past performance.


Wait a minute now. Yes, while it's true that this is Bernie's first foray into running for POTUS, he's no stranger to political debates on the issues.

Anyway, here's a video comparing Bernie voting against the war on Iraq with Hillary voting for it. Setting aside Bernie's PRESCIENT statements here, who do you think made the better argument?

https://youtu.be/2ySJLIc5BJM

And I agree, Hillary's a great debater, but Bernie's in a different class. Not only is he great with policies, but he has charisma, he's transparent, he's quick-witted, he has integrity, and shows respect for his colleagues (he may criticize their policies very harshly, but he respects them as his colleagues). All of these attributes are evident when he speaks in debates. By comparison, Hillary is a dull mouthpiece who knows how to appease her supporters and says what's 'right', not what she feels. Her disingenuous fervor seeps off her like smoke from a burnt wire. I'm sorry, but you can't even compare the two.
 
The only thing that can be said about the future Bernary is that they will either be very interesting or exceedingly boring. Both have oodles of experience at the pulpit. Will be merely a matter of how hard they decide to wrassle

#commonsensegaf
 
Wait a minute now. Yes, while it's true that this is Bernie's first foray into running for POTUS, he's no stranger to political debates on the issues.

Anyway, here's a video comparing Bernie voting against the war on Iraq with Hillary voting for it. Setting aside Bernie's PRESCIENT statements here, who do you think made the better argument?

https://youtu.be/2ySJLIc5BJM

And I agree, Hillary's a great debater, but Bernie's in a different class. Not only is he great with policies, but he has charisma, he's transparent, he's quick-witted, he has integrity, and shows respect for his colleagues (he may criticize their policies very harshly, but he respects them as his colleagues). All of these attributes are evident when he speaks in debates. By comparison, Hillary is a dull mouthpiece who knows how to appease her supporters and says what's 'right', not what she feels. Her disingenuous fervor seeps off her like smoke from a burnt wire. I'm sorry, but you can't even compare the two.

One would wonder if Sanders has any flaws at all. This glorious man sounds like he's too good to be true.

On a related note. I spend too much time on Breitbart and newsmax (aka Trump fansite 1a and 1b) so I decided to check out Sanders reddit page for the first time and it was not all that different to be honest. Sanders fans, to their credit, are much more logical and educated in their beliefs and don't just blindly follow any crappy poll that shows what they want like Trump followers.

It's still ideology comes first, second, third, and fourth. No pragmatism, no realism, and as soon as your candidate has to actually govern beyond your polarized base (as Obama did when he got elected) then you're basically dead to them (as Obama seems to be). I saw some post from some idiot treating BLM like an enemy just because they dared protest at a Sanders rally.

It's why the far right and the far left are equally unappealing to me. Might as well be joining a cult because it requires the same strict adherence to homogeneous thinking.
 
I'm not relying on the AP article or the AP's claims about the IAEA agreements. My arguments are that (1) the president's failure to provide the IAEA side agreements means the review period under Corker-Cardin has not yet begun; and (2) the issues purportedly resolved by the IAEA side agreements are important components of the entire Iran deal.
C'mon. You're too smart to be buying this bullshit from the House GOP.

The IAEA doesn't hand over this stuff to anyone. That's how this system works. Every single country on the planet who works with the IAEA, including the US, has similar safeguards agreements in place. How can Obama "fail to provide" something he's not privy to? What you're asking for would completely discredit the IAEA and render it useless.

And under the law they passed, the GOP has no right to see the IAEA safeguards agreement. They didn't ask for it.
 
One would wonder if Sanders has any flaws at all. This glorious man sounds like he's too good to be true.

On a related note. I spend too much time on Breitbart and newsmax (aka Trump fansite 1a and 1b) so I decided to check out Sanders reddit page for the first time and it was not all that different to be honest. Sanders fans, to their credit, are much more logical and educated in their beliefs and don't just blindly follow any crappy poll that shows what they want like Trump followers.

It's still ideology comes first, second, third, and fourth. No pragmatism, no realism, and as soon as your candidate has to actually govern beyond your polarized base (as Obama did when he got elected) then you're basically dead to them (as Obama seems to be). I saw some post from some idiot treating BLM like an enemy just because they dared protest at a Sanders rally.

It's why the far right and the far left are equally unappealing to me. Might as well be joining a cult because it requires the same strict adherence to homogeneous thinking.

My problem is that, as a Sanders supporter, I get lumped in with the crazies, and it's annoying. I'm not an idealist, I'm a realist. I don't believe that Bernie can do no wrong. I'm not very confident in him winning the election, and frankly, his age concerns me. Nevertheless, I DO rationally support him.

It's not an ideology for me; I believe he is one of the very few politicians that has what it takes to spearhead a political revolution in this country. I know that sounds like utopian-speake, but it's not. It's just going to take a cohesive and concerted effort to pull this off, but I'm ready for it, and I'm doing my part as a volunteer to turn this dream into a reality. We may not succeed, but I sure as hell ain't gonna give up without trying first!
 

Diablos

Member
The thing is that's not where he strengths are. She's not Joe Biden or Obama, Hillary is at her absolute best when she is able to talk about policy. When she can talk about how to pass policy, how it will affect everyone's lives, exactly why it's implemented the way it is, the minutia of policy and how it relates to voters is where she absolutely thrives. Trying to turn her into Biden is a mistake, her enthusiasm, which is what will make her human, comes through when she talks policy so that's what they should be doing.

They should be unveiling policy initiatives and putting her in town halls so she can have a conversation, a real conversation, with voters about said policy.

If I'm completely honest, the best she's seemed is in that BLM video where she explained her view on changing the world and asks them exactly what sort of policy they'd like her to focus on. She's not a candidate you're going to get soaring rhetoric from her, like you would from Obama, or deeply personal stories, like from Biden, or idealistic stances, like from Bernie. She can't run those sorts of campaigns because that's not her.
So after eight years of Obama and the GOP foaming at the mouth to take back the WH, a candidate with not much charisma, a seemingly increasingly lacking ability to connect with voters/display authenticity, and is only best when she talks strictly policy is going ot be able to withstand the GOP relentlessly attacking Dems next year.

Draft Biden, pls.
 
It's why the far right and the far left are equally unappealing to me. Might as well be joining a cult because it requires the same strict adherence to homogeneous thinking.

You kinda had a point, but then you went completely off the deep end when trying to categorize Sanders as far left. You've some degree of global awareness. You know better.

Stop trying to mock your future allies. Do not emulate behaviour which you find most displeasing when commited by others.

Or don't stop. I'm not your mom. Certainly cant force you to. But ye gods does it get Zzz when hillgaf bitches about standers.
 

dramatis

Member
And I agree, Hillary's a great debater, but Bernie's in a different class. Not only is he great with policies, but he has charisma, he's transparent, he's quick-witted, he has integrity, and shows respect for his colleagues (he may criticize their policies very harshly, but he respects them as his colleagues). All of these attributes are evident when he speaks in debates. By comparison, Hillary is a dull mouthpiece who knows how to appease her supporters and says what's 'right', not what she feels. Her disingenuous fervor seeps off her like smoke from a burnt wire. I'm sorry, but you can't even compare the two.

My problem is that, as a Sanders supporter, I get lumped in with the crazies, and it's annoying. I'm not an idealist, I'm a realist. I don't believe that Bernie can do no wrong. I'm not very confident in him winning the election, and frankly, his age concerns me. Nevertheless, I DO rationally support him.

It's not an ideology for me; I believe he is one of the very few politicians that has what it takes to spearhead a political revolution in this country. I know that sounds like utopian-speake, but it's not. It's just going to take a cohesive and concerted effort to pull this off, but I'm ready for it, and I'm doing my part as a volunteer to turn this dream into a reality. We may not succeed, but I sure as hell ain't gonna give up without trying first!
No, your problem is that your words are at odds with each other.

The top post here is an attempt to lead to your argument using initial agreement and then a series of judgements about Bernie Sanders from your rosy perspective. I've watched several videos of Bernie speaking and arguing; he's not charismatic. There are charismatic politicians out there, but Bernie is not one of them. I can grant that he's transparent, but "quick-witted" has yet to be tested—you can say he actually failed in this regard, given the manner in which he reacted to unplanned events like Netroots and Seattle. I heard quite a clamor about Bernie's vocal opposition to mass incarceration, the legislation on which he voted Aye for—is that integrity? Respect for colleagues is common amongst all congressmembers, this sort of trait is not distinctive. Publicly we hear them shitting all over each other, but just as Ginsberg can be good friends with Scalia, the members of Congress are not nearly as rude to each other as you imagine.

I don't think any of the attributes you've listed are on display when Bernie is debating, interviewing, or arguing. You're building a myth of a person.

Which is why it's essentially an ideology. You feel like you're not crazy, but the amount of admiration you're showing for a career politician is leaning close to idolatry. Calling Bernie on a different level from Hillary, and then sideswiping at her character. The need to demean the opponent to raise your choice higher. You've fallen exactly into the pitfalls of the 'crazy' Bernie supporters.

The fact that you think he can spearhead a political revolution is unrealistic in itself. It is utopian idealism. You're overreaching with a dream that doesn't factor in half the country's opposition to your ideas. It doesn't work with a Republican Congress. It places an immense burden on Bernie to live up to a dream, not a reality.

Also, consider the irony of your position. The accusation that "Hillary is a dull mouthpiece who knows how to appease her supporters and says what's 'right', not what she feels." is also applicable to Bernie; in this respect he's actually been much more populist than she has. The substitution of "Bernie" into "Hillary" in the above sentence is what an opponent can throw straight back at you. It is because you think Bernie is 'right' that you don't consider what he's saying to be pandering, but from another standpoint, what he's doing is not that different from what Trump is doing: saying things that sound appealing to a particular crowd. Do you think the people who follow Trump don't also think the same way you do, which is that the "majority of the country" agrees with them?
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
C'mon. You're too smart to be buying this bullshit from the House GOP.

The IAEA doesn't hand over this stuff to anyone. That's how this system works. Every single country on the planet who works with the IAEA, including the US, has similar safeguards agreements in place. How can Obama "fail to provide" something he's not privy to? What you're asking for would completely discredit the IAEA and render it useless.

And under the law they passed, the GOP has no right to see the IAEA safeguards agreement. They didn't ask for it.

I'm smart enough to know I should look into it myself before making up my mind. So, I did.

The IAEA did not act on its own in this case. Until the middle of June (i.e., about a month after Corker-Cardin became law), the State Department insisted that Iran would have to disclose information concerning the past military dimensions of its nuclear program. The IAEA, U.S., and EU negotiated the Iran agreement in tandem and, since May, under the shadow of Corker-Cardin. And, as I pointed out last night, the IAEA side agreements play an important role in the overall Iran deal--the side agreements don't exist in a vacuum. So to complain that it isn't customary for the IAEA to share its agreements with one country with another simply ignores the context surrounding these particular IAEA agreements.

Finally, Corker-Cardin doesn't require Congress to "ask for" documents before the president has an obligation to provide them. It simply imposes the obligation. The definition of "agreement" in the statute is broad enough to encompass the IAEA side agreements. (See my initial post on this topic, linked above.)
 

dramatis

Member
Apparently the government just rolled out a new site that's sort of a rebuilt College Scorecard showing data related to earnings, prices, demographics, etc. for colleges.

The Department of Education on the new data:
Today, the Department of Education is proud to announce new steps to help students, parents and advisers make better college choices, including:

  1. A new College Scorecard redesigned with direct input from students, families, and their advisers to provide the clearest, most accessible, and reliable national data on college cost, graduation, debt, and post-college earnings. This new College Scorecard can empower Americans to rate colleges based on what matters most to them; to highlight colleges that are serving students of all backgrounds well; and to focus on making a quality, affordable education within reach.
  2. New, comprehensive and updated data on higher education institutions. For the first time, the public can access the most reliable and comprehensive data on students’ outcomes at specific colleges, including former students’ earnings, graduates’ student debt, and borrowers’ repayment rates. These data are also available for various sub-groups, like first generation and Pell students. Because these data will be published through an open application programming interface (API), researchers, policymakers, and members of the public can customize their own analysis of college performance more quickly and easily.
  3. Customized tools for students, with 11 organizations already using these data to launch new tools. Today, ScholarMatch, StartClass and College Abacus, three college search resources, are using this new, unique data that help students search for, compare, and develop a list of colleges based on the outcomes data that the Department is making available to the public for the first time. PayScale, which offers consumers a large salary database, will use the new data to analyze various colleges’ return-on-investment for different student groups while InsideTrack, which is a team of coaches and consultants working to improve student outcomes, will use the data to develop and implement effective student-centered initiatives. ProPublica, a non-profit investigative journalism newsroom, has built a tool with the open data to help consumers make more informed decisions.
With nearly 2,000 data points for over 7,000 schools going back 18 years, there’s a lot of information in the College Scorecard dataset. The dataset includes information from the Department of the Treasury on student loan repayment rates, and the IRS on post-college income. When we can combine new data from Departments of Education and of the Treasury with data that colleges already report on graduation rates, cost, and other descriptions about their school, the College Scorecard allows the public to distinguish colleges based on the outcomes of their students.

Vox has an article up about the new college scorecard and the data.
"We made the decision to not make clear, direct ratings, because we felt like the data was not supportive of drawing those kinds of conclusions," said Education Under Secretary Ted Mitchell in a call with reporters Friday afternoon. "But we believe the data itself can drive decision-making, can drive further inquiries that students want to make."

He acknowledged the data has problems. The standard federal graduation rates are, for example, criticized for excluding students who transfer without earning a degree, a problem that's especially acute for community colleges. The earnings also include only information on federal student loan borrowers, not all students who enroll, although Mitchell said the findings are generalizable to all students.

Some colleges argue that graduation rates and earnings don't just reflect whether the college is doing a good job, but the students it admitted in the first place. It's not hard to have a high graduation rate when you're enrolling academic superstars from well-off families; it's much harder to help students from disadvantaged backgrounds achieve the same results.

Personally, I think tools like these provided to the public using government resources and data is great. Particularly for college education.
 
I'm smart enough to know I should look into it myself before making up my mind. So, I did.

The IAEA did not act on its own in this case. Until the middle of June (i.e., about a month after Corker-Cardin became law), the State Department insisted that Iran would have to disclose information concerning the past military dimensions of its nuclear program. The IAEA, U.S., and EU negotiated the Iran agreement in tandem and, since May, under the shadow of Corker-Cardin. And, as I pointed out last night, the IAEA side agreements play an important role in the overall Iran deal--the side agreements don't exist in a vacuum. So to complain that it isn't customary for the IAEA to share its agreements with one country with another simply ignores the context surrounding these particular IAEA agreements.

Finally, Corker-Cardin doesn't require Congress to "ask for" documents before the president has an obligation to provide them. It simply imposes the obligation. The definition of "agreement" in the statute is broad enough to encompass the IAEA side agreements. (See my initial post on this topic, linked above.)

Imposes an obligation the president couldn't possibly fulfill? This is an absurd argument.

If the bill had been crafted by Republicans to specifically to make it impossible for the 60-day clock to ever start ticking and Dems were simply too dumb to notice, this argument would make more sense. But that's clearly not what happened. House Republicans have realized they're going to lose on the Iran deal, so they're grasping at straws in order to prolong the debate. The bill states fairly clearly what materials the president and the State Department were required to give to Congress. A safeguards agreement between Iran and the IAEA (which is certainly connected to the deal but doesn't directly involve the United States in this specific case) clearly does not fall under it.

And again, you're willfully ignoring the way the IAEA functions. How do you think the U.S. would respond if another country's government demanded to see our safeguards agreement with the IAEA? Not a single country would ever open up their nuclear facilities for IAEA oversight if other countries could access their safeguards agreements.
 
C'mon. You're too smart to be buying this bullshit from the House GOP.

The IAEA doesn't hand over this stuff to anyone. That's how this system works. Every single country on the planet who works with the IAEA, including the US, has similar safeguards agreements in place. How can Obama "fail to provide" something he's not privy to? What you're asking for would completely discredit the IAEA and render it useless.

And under the law they passed, the GOP has no right to see the IAEA safeguards agreement. They didn't ask for it.
Something constitution trumps international law! Amerika über alles!
 
The dem debates are going to be super boring, I think. Sanders wants to just "discuss the issues" (instead of attacking the character of Clinton) and Hillary will continue to be condescending with Bernie because she doesn't want to piss off the hard left base. Biden would make them more entertaining, of course.
 
You kinda had a point, but then you went completely off the deep end when trying to categorize Sanders as far left. You've some degree of global awareness. You know better.

Stop trying to mock your future allies. Do not emulate behaviour which you find most displeasing when commited by others.

Or don't stop. I'm not your mom. Certainly cant force you to. But ye gods does it get Zzz when hillgaf bitches about standers.

You had a point until you decided that anyone that bitches about Sanders is Hillgaf. I have no great affinity for her whatsoever. I'd just as easily support Biden right now, who cares.

I'm just someone who sees Sanders and Trump as people who promise the moon to their supporters and their supporters fall for it.
 

Iolo

Member
House Republicans have realized they're going to lose on the Iran deal, so they're grasping at straws in order to prolong the debate.

I don't know why you say that, there's no precedent for this strategy. House Republicans would not, for example, hold 56 doomed votes on repealing Obamacare and bring numerous failed court cases against it, years after implementation. Similarly, there's no way this would happen on the Iran deal. It's just crazy to think so and would imply they are irresponsible governors.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I don't know why you say that, there's no precedent for this strategy. House Republicans would not, for example, hold 56 doomed votes on repealing Obamacare and bring numerous failed court cases against it, years after implementation. Similarly, there's no way this would happen on the Iran deal. It's just crazy to think so and would imply they are irresponsible governors.

Iolo
Member
(Today, 01:43 PM)
 
Anyone catching Trump's rally in Iowa? On Fox News right now. No structure; he's just rambling and jumping from topic to topic. More shit about building the wall, about how "gangs in Chicago" are full of bad dudes, all illegals need to go back, common core means you're "taught by Washington", and so on and so forth. Reminds everyone how he's leading like every minute.

At one point, about Clinton, he's like she may not make it to the starting gate folks. She may not. Right? I don't know. Who cares?

Classic.

But once again it is interesting how strongly he reaffirmed that hedge funds are going to pay more taxes. I think a lot of people in the crowd would normally say they're against higher taxes, regardless, but maybe some minds are being changed here.
 
Trump is by far the best candidate on either side at channeling the rage of the base and telling them what they want to hear. All the people that bet on Jeb right now are looking like idiots. Bush is an afterthought
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Imposes an obligation the president couldn't possibly fulfill? This is an absurd argument.

If the bill had been crafted by Republicans to specifically to make it impossible for the 60-day clock to ever start ticking and Dems were simply too dumb to notice, this argument would make more sense. But that's clearly not what happened. House Republicans have realized they're going to lose on the Iran deal, so they're grasping at straws in order to prolong the debate. The bill states fairly clearly what materials the president and the State Department were required to give to Congress. A safeguards agreement between Iran and the IAEA (which is certainly connected to the deal but doesn't directly involve the United States in this specific case) clearly does not fall under it.

And again, you're willfully ignoring the way the IAEA functions. How do you think the U.S. would respond if another country's government demanded to see our safeguards agreement with the IAEA? Not a single country would ever open up their nuclear facilities for IAEA oversight if other countries could access their safeguards agreements.

The law does state fairly clearly what materials are required. You seem to think it must name a particular document to include that document within its requirements, but that's not so. The law mandates that the president transmit to Congress "an agreement," along with "all related materials and annexes," and the period for Congressional review is triggered by that transmission. "Agreement" is defined as specifically including "any joint comprehensive plan of action entered into or made between Iran and any other parties, and any additional materials related thereto, including annexes, appendices, codicils, side agreements, implementing materials, documents, and guidance, technical or other understandings, and any related agreements[.]" The IAEA side agreements are "side agreements" or "implementing materials" or "related agreements" or, at worst, "additional materials related" to the JCPOA. As a consequence, they must be transmitted to Congress, else the president has not transmitted "an agreement" sufficient to trigger the Congressional review period.

You complain that it's impossible for the president to deliver the IAEA agreement to Congress, but that's his problem. He signed the law. If he wanted an impossibility exception, he could have demanded one be added to the bill before he signed it. If he didn't want to have to produce IAEA side agreements, he could have required that such agreements be specifically exempted from the bill before he turned it into law. He didn't do those things. In addition, his administration was heavily involved in negotiating the JCPOA alongside the IAEA and EU. They could have insisted that the IAEA and Iran permit Congress to review their side agreements, as required by the law. Or, at the very least, they could have ensured that whatever the IAEA and Iran were doing was completely separate from the JCPOA, so that they could at least have an arguable basis for refusing to produce that arrangement. Again, they did neither. You keep going on about how sharing agreements isn't the normal course of dealing with the IAEA, but continue ignoring that none of this is the normal course of dealing with the IAEA. The IAEA typically isn't entering its agreements in the context of--and as an integral part of--broader multinational negotiations.

Finally, you allege that this is merely the Republicans, having "realized they're going to lose on the Iran deal, . . . grasping at straws in order to prolong the debate," but they have been making this case since within days of the president delivering the JCPOA to Congress.
 
Prediction: if that whole deal ever goes to court, it'll be decided that the executive fulfilled its obligations according to law to the best of its abilities and that's that.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Prediction: if that whole deal ever goes to court, it'll be decided that the executive fulfilled its obligations according to law to the best of its abilities and that's that.

Assuming a court were to address the merits (and I think there are serious technical issues that could prevent it), I think that's the least likely outcome. There is no "good enough" excuse for failing to comply with the law--that's especially so where the entire problem is of the president's own making. He signed the law. His administration negotiated the deal with full knowledge of what the law required.

Daniel Craig apparently donated some 40k dollars to Bernie Sanders' campaign.

Is Craig a U.S. citizen? (Technically it was to a SuperPAC, not Sanders' campaign. I just think it would be hilarious for Sanders to be the poster boy for the evils of foreign-funded corporate speech liberals have been worried about since Citizens United.)
 
Assuming a court were to address the merits (and I think there are serious technical issues that could prevent it), I think that's the least likely outcome. There is no "good enough" excuse for failing to comply with the law--that's especially so where the entire problem is of the president's own making. He signed the law. His administration negotiated the deal with full knowledge of what the law required.

Yes, but you thought along the same lines on obamacare. They fucked up writing the law, so fuckem. And yet here we are.

5bux via paypal?
 
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