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[Wilsongt]

Facebook can be magically stupid.

Edit: Stupid mobile. Someone posted an image of the towers with text saying this isn't the week for Obama to be talking about bringing in muslim refugees and then says to keep them where they are.

The irony is this person's immediate post before that was saying you can't fix stupid but you can watch it on Facebook.

Being oblivious must be nice for some folks.

 

[B-Dubs]

I swear to god, no one knows how to read a fucking poll anymore.

 

[NeoXChaos]

I swear to god, no one knows how to read a fucking poll anymore.

How do we read a poll o wise one?

 

[Kusagari]

I hate these CNN polls. So much data is listed as N/A. They don't list what the nonwhite numbers were for stuff like Bernie/Biden/Hillary support.

About the only interesting thing I parsed was that Carson gets 39% of the nonwhite vote against Hillary.

 

[ivysaur12]

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 2m2 minutes ago
.@GovernorPerry is a terrific guy and I wish him well- I know he will have a great future!

It's like the end of an episode of the fucking Apprentice

 

[Black Mamba]

I wouldn't worry too much about Hillary until Bernie actually starts seeing some movement his way in the African-american vote.

Also, that gif is horrible and you should stop trying to make it a thing.

EDIT: I'd go into the crosstabs and check on the "likely democratic primary voter" before you celebrate as that has Hillary 23 points above Bernie. Being popular among people who aren't going to vote in the primary isn't going to help him.

EDIT2: There's not a whole lot in those crosstabs for Bernie to be excited about to tell the truth.

Among Democrats who voted for Obama, he's getting crushed. Among those same people who are likely primary voters, Hillary is up 47-25. with Biden getting 20%.

Bernie's support is among 18-29 year olds. These people do not vote in primaries.

In fact, according to the poll, if you select 18-29 year old likely Dem primary voters, you get insufficient data

Likely Dem Primary voters equal only 23% of those polled. That puts only 1 out of 3 Dems polled as voters. But here's the problem. 1 out of every 2 Democrat who voted for Obama in 2012 is a primary voter. And she's crushing Bernie with this group. Among the "very liberal," 1 out of 3 will turn out to vote. And that's Bernie's support. It isn't much better when I put in "moderately liberal."

Bernie's problem is right now, these people aren't going to show up at the polls.

He's running behind Biden among old people (65+), the people who do vote.





Yes, Bernie is struggling with minorities. But the real problem for him is kind of a bigger deal. The people who would support him right now have little interest in actually taking the effort to go to the polls. Hell, I bet more of the Bernie fans on GAF would end up not making it to their primary, then whine about Hillary winning on this board and say we're all corporatists and the system is rigged!

 

[Retromelon]

who?

Don't make me repost.

 

[B-Dubs]

How do we read a poll o wise one?

You check the date of the number. The number marked September 11 is from September 11. The number marked September 7 is from September 7.

I'm sorry, I just feel like I'm hitting my head against a brick wall trying to explain this shit in the OT.

Yes, Bernie is struggling with minorities. But the real problem for him is kind of a bigger deal. The people who would support him right now have little interest in actually taking the effort to go to the polls. Hell, I bet more of the Bernie fans on GAF would end up not making it to their primary, then whine about Hillary winning on this board and say we're all corporatists and the system is rigged!

Pretty much what I saw as I delved deeper and deeper into the numbers. My original post was made fairly quickly, so you're right to point out he has much larger problems.

I do wish there was enough data to figure out who LGBTQ voters are going for though. That's something I've been thinking hard about for some reason, I'd really like to know who they're backing and in what numbers.

I was actually surprised Cuomo is pulling 4% of likely primary voters despite not running, poor Jim Webb :lol

 

[PlayALLtheGames]

Da fuq is going on here:

Looks like the guy is trying his best to give a way-too-firm handshake to assert himself as confident and manly.

 

[Black Mamba]

It's like the end of an episode of the fucking Apprentice

If only he tweeted to Perry first "you're fired!"

Back to the poll, did a little more.

Among Democrats over the age of 35, Bernie's in third place behind Biden. It's 45-21-20.

Bernie's support system is young people. He fucked if that doesn't change.

Pretty much what I saw as I delved deeper and deeper into the numbers. My original post was made fairly quickly, so you're right to point out he has much larger problems.

I do wish there was enough data to figure out who LGBTQ voters are going for though. That's something I've been thinking hard about for some reason, I'd really like to know who they're backing and in what numbers.

I was actually surprised Cuomo is pulling 4% of likely primary voters despite not running, poor Jim Webb :lol

Seemed like LGBTQ supported Bernie comfortably. But they are too small a group to matter in a primary (population total wise).

Just looking at Democrats over 35 shows Bernie's uphill battle.

 

[Gotchaye]

What do you guys feel about his Dred Scott argument, specifically the idea that the courts can be devastatingly wrong about something and enshrine wrong/discriminatory views into law - and thus those laws should be opposed or broken by the people.

Sure, if the Court makes some monstrous ruling then maybe it should be ignored. Civil disobedience is sometimes appropriate. Actual rebellion is probably sometimes appropriate. The Underground Railroad and similar were reasonable responses to slavery as a legal institution.

But it's obviously not the case that just any bad law or bad Supreme Court decision justifies civil disobedience. There are a couple ways we could try to make this distinction. It's probably not a good idea to make it based on which decisions are actually bad - I think this is what PlayALLtheGames is going for - since this isn't a rule that can be usefully applied by people who oppose a law but are wrong to do so. What we're looking for is an argument that might convince someone opposed to gay marriage that it's wrong to disregard the Supreme Court ruling in favor of gay marriage without necessarily convincing them that they should support gay marriage. Fortunately I think that most of them are already convinced by such an argument - gay marriage is just not a big enough deal. Opposing gay marriage lacks the moral urgency of opposing slavery. This is true even going by the rhetoric used by most opponents of gay marriage - it's not like abortion where the rhetoric plausibly does require something more than working to slowly bring about change through the political process.

There's also this distinction between civil disobedience and rebellion. Usually what we think of as civil disobedience is something like going out and disobeying the particular law you have a problem with, and sort of daring the police to arrest you because you're trusting that when people see what the actual application of a law looks like they'll turn against it. But for most people it's actually quite difficult to civilly disobey Obergefell. Like, what do you do? You can be Kim Davis, but at that point it doesn't look much like civil disobedience since she is the government, and to the extent that she did what she did for strategic reasons it seems likely to fail (she does not come across as a very sympathetic figure even to many opponents of gay marriage). Ultimately the law just doesn't impact private citizens such that there's a possible way for them to disregard or break it. The closest thing we've got is probably bakers and the like, but of course those cases have not to date had anything to do with Obergefell (they're about anti-discrimination statutes passed by legislatures, generally, and I don't think many are arguing that these laws are illegitimate). Now, you can extra-legally oppose a policy beyond mere civil disobedience by actually taking up arms against it (again, see abortion), but I think this strikes basically everyone as just a crazy thing to do in this case.

 

[Iolo]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/scott-walker-iowa-poll-drop-2016-213562

Walker "was not out here frequently to capitalize on the interest on him for the six months after that January speech, and then clearly wasn't ready because he was on three different sides of two-sided issues on a couple of different occasions," said Doug Gross, a former chief of staff to Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad. "So as a result people just lost confidence that this guy was our alternative. He no longer was a bright shiny penny, instead he was all scuffed up and thrown away."

I can't stop chuckling at this quote.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

You know, Ellie, we really are pollgaf

 

[B-Dubs]

If only he tweeted to Perry first "you're fired!"

Back to the poll, did a little more.

Among Democrats over the age of 35, Bernie's in third place behind Biden. It's 45-21-20.

Bernie's support system is young people. He fucked if that doesn't change.

Bernie and Biden seem essentially tied right now, given this poll and what it shows, which is really bad for Bernie considering Uncle Joe isn't even running.

Interestingly if we go by New England alone Bernie has closed the gap, which is to be expected, where as in the South (in general) Hillary is still running 20 points up. Hillary seems to have a straight 10 point advantage in the rest of the country--save the far west which isn't really going to come into play until it's all over.

Hillary actually murders Bernie and everyone else among voters who have gone beyond college degrees, while she has a 9 point lead among those who have stopped at a college degree.

EDIT: It seems students are going for Bernie in vast numbers, which is to be expected. Where as everyone with or without jobs are breaking for Hillary fairly comfortably.

EDIT2: I really like how this site is structured, it's so easy to see what's what.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Hillary actually murders Bernie

Wouldn't be the first time

 

[pigeon]

Perry dropping out is a good sign for the GOP because it implies that candidates will actually drop out of the race. Which was at least potentially a concern!

If the establishment want an actual establishment candidate, they pretty much have to start by consolidating the support currently going to Perry, Jindal, etc. behind Rubio/Walker/Jeb/Gilmore. That probably won't happen unless they drop out.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Santorum, Graham, Jindal gotta go.

 

[GnawtyDog]

Perry dropping out is a good sign for the GOP because it implies that candidates will actually drop out of the race. Which was at least potentially a concern!

If the establishment want an actual establishment candidate, they pretty much have to start by consolidating the support currently going to Perry, Jindal, etc. behind Rubio/Walker/Jeb/Gilmore. That probably won't happen unless they drop out.

Then let them stay for as long as the money can carry them.

 

[pigeon]

Then let them stay for as long as the money can carry them.

I mean, you don't have to convince me. There's nothing I'd like more than Perry sticking it out until March with the dollars from his SuperPAC.

But it looks like either that wasn't working out (I know that he ran into some trouble in South Carolina because you're required to have at least one full-time staffer in SC to be in the primary), or the party pressured him to give up, or I guess he was just humiliated about sitting at the kid's table.

 

[HylianTom]

I'm en route to Middle-of-Nowhere, MS to visit in-laws (seriously: the cows run down the road in the mornings), and the internet is blinkering before it totally drops out. Tonight, I'm going to lay awake wondering two things:
1) where is that banjo music coming from?
2) how small does the field have to be before the Kids' Table Debate is shelved?

PS: check out http://www.trumpbart.com

 

[Black Mamba]

Perry dropping out is a good sign for the GOP because it implies that candidates will actually drop out of the race. Which was at least potentially a concern!

If the establishment want an actual establishment candidate, they pretty much have to start by consolidating the support currently going to Perry, Jindal, etc. behind Rubio/Walker/Jeb/Gilmore. That probably won't happen unless they drop out.

There was never any issue with the guys with no money dropping out. It was bound to happen.

And Perry was statistically insignificant.

It'll only matter when guys like Rubio, Kasich, Fiorino, Rand drop out (if they should). Jindal, Graham, etc are irrelevant in this race.

Bernie and Biden seem essentially tied right now, given this poll and what it shows, which is really bad for Bernie considering Uncle Joe isn't even running.

Interestingly if we go by New England alone Bernie has closed the gap, which is to be expected, where as in the South (in general) Hillary is still running 20 points up. Hillary seems to have a straight 10 point advantage in the rest of the country--save the far west which isn't really going to come into play until it's all over.

Hillary actually murders Bernie and everyone else among voters who have gone beyond college degrees, while she has a 9 point lead among those who have stopped at a college degree.

EDIT: It seems students are going for Bernie in vast numbers, which is to be expected. Where as everyone with or without jobs are breaking for Hillary fairly comfortably.

EDIT2: I really like how this site is structured, it's so easy to see what's what.

If students voted, the GOP would be inconsequential outside the South.

 

[NobleXenon]

Man, ever since 2011, polls have been absolute shit. Aside from a Nate analysis or PPP, what other polls are deemed trustworthy?

 

[B-Dubs]

If students voted, the GOP would be inconsequential outside the South.

:lol

True, true. I wish there was something to be done about that.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Man, ever since 2011, polls have been absolute shit. Aside from a Nate analysis or PPP, what other polls are deemed trustworthy?

Changes all the time. IBD/TIPP was GARBAGE in 2008 but then turned out to be spot on in 2012.

PPP is fairly stable.

 

[theprodigy]

You know, Ellie, we really are pollgaf

god damn it

 

[Black Mamba]

:lol

True, true. I wish there was something to be done about that.

I'm about to turn 32 and most of my friends have never voted in a primary or anything but a presidential election. Most of my friends are highly educated.

Young people either don't actually care about politics (not political idealogy and theory and stuff like that, but actual American politics). Young people either don't care, are too busy to care, or believe there's no point.

I know it's an anecdote, but I have always been outside the norm of my friends when it comes to American politics, from college to the professional world. I can talk all kinds of topics with my friends, like minimum wage and LGTBQ rights, and even the ACA. But I can't actually talk about voting for someone or anything related to actual nitty gritty politics because nobody cares.

When I was in college, Kerry came to my campus. He gave a speech. It drew a massive crowd from the school (I was there). Everyone was super excited. And then like 15% of the campus turned out to vote.

It is what it is.

 

[pigeon]

Stole this from dan in the OT thread:

 

[Black Mamba]

​

Stole this from dan in the OT thread:

Vote for me, I'm the 2nd best!

Jindal is self-aware, at least. lolz.

 

[B-Dubs]

I'm about to turn 32 and most of my friends have never voted in a primary or anything but a presidential election. Most of my friends are highly educated.

Young people either don't actually care about politics (not political idealogy and theory and stuff like that, but actual American politics). Young people either don't care, are too busy to care, or believe there's no point.

I know it's an anecdote, but I have always been outside the norm of my friends when it comes to American politics, from college to the professional world. I can talk all kinds of topics with my friends, like minimum wage and LGTBQ rights, and even the ACA. But I can't actually talk about voting for someone because nobody cares.

When I was in college, Kerry came to my campus. He gave a speech. It drew a massive crowd from the school (I was there). Everyone was super excited. And then like 15% of the campus turned out to vote.

It is what it is.

I'm 25 and I generally have the same story. For the people I know, anecdotally of course, it very much feels like apathy. Like they feel like there's so much big business and money clogging up the system that their votes don't matter. I feel like some of them just want to blow it all up and start again instead of bothering to go out and vote.

I just wish there was a way to show people that voting actually matters.

Stole this from dan in the OT thread:

That reply really makes it, it really does :lol

 

[BertramCooper]

I kind of want to use this GIF in this thread.

A lot, probably.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Stole this from dan in the OT thread:

B-E-A-utiful.

 

[B-Dubs]

I kind of want to use this GIF in this thread.

A lot, probably.

I fucking love Review, it's so great.



Can I just say how vindicated I feel now that Perry's the first one to go? I missed out on a job a few months back because I couldn't figure out how to write an article showing his path to the nomination without a fiery plane crash killing every other candidate all at once. I have half a mind to e-mail that editor and say I told you so.

 

[brainchild]

I posted this in one of those sensationalist Bernie poll threads, but I'm interested in what you guys think.

Instead of inundating the OT side with a slew of Bernie Sanders threads for every flavor-of-the-week poll result that gets published, why not make an official aggregate pollster thread that can be updated?

Personally, I reference an aggregate pollster (Huffington) because, generally speaking, averages are better than outliers. Aggregate polls tend to give a more objective and accurate perspective on macroscopic trends, subsequently providing a basis for more meaningful and reliable analyses.

If gaf referenced an aggregate, it would minimize the number of sensationalist threads about candidates 'surging' or 'plummeting', as those threads are usually spawned by people who don't analyze the trends on a macroscopic level, and are simply responding to the news passively.

Here are the current results from the Huffington aggregate:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

What do you guys think?

I really feel like it would cut down on the ridiculous Bernie threads, and I say this as a Bernie supporter (and before anyone gets on my case, I'm a Bernie supporter, not an extremist. If Bernie doesn't get the nomination, I'll be voting for Hillary).

My account just got approved, so I apologize if this has been deliberated before, but I didn't get much feedback in the other thread.

 

[Retromelon]

Read the thread title bro

 

[brainchild]

Read the thread title bro

I understand what this thread is about, hence me deciding to post about this in this thread. However, I'm proposing something more focused and nuanced, where it doesn't get drowned out by all the other discussions. Surely that would be a better effort to eliminate these poll threads than what the mere existence of the poligaf thread has been doing so far, right?

EDIT: HOLY SHIT!! I did not realize that this said PollGAF and not PoliGAF...Now I feel like a complete idiot!! lol

 

[NeoXChaos]

Read the thread title.

 

[Aureon]

I posted this in one of those sensationalist Bernie poll threads, but I'm interested in what you guys think.



I really feel like it would cut down on the ridiculous Bernie threads, and I say this as a Bernie supporter (and before anyone gets on my case, I'm a Bernie supporter, not an extremist. If Bernie doesn't get the nomination, I'll be voting for Hillary).

My account just got approved, so I apologize if this has been deliberated before, but I didn't get much feedback in the other thread.

It's completely impossible to get everyone to agree to a set of rules that isn't mod-mandated, much less people who start sensationalist threads.

Nice idea, but it isn't happening. Much like actually electing Bernie, actually.

 

[brainchild]

Sorry for wasting your time guys, I honestly thought this was the poligaf thread. Whoops

EDIT:

I never even knew a PollGAF thread existed!

Wait, please tell me that there IS an actual poligaf... Have I been misreading all these years?!!!!

 

[B-Dubs]

Sorry for wasting your time guys, I honestly thought this was the poligaf thread. Whoops

If you want to make such a thread go ahead, but if you want the posters in it to play by the rules you'll need a mod or two policing it. This is less a PoliGAF thing and more a mod thing is what people are trying to say.

 

[pigeon]

Sorry for wasting your time guys, I honestly thought this was the poligaf thread. Whoops

EDIT:

I never even knew a PollGAF thread existed!

Wait, please tell me that there IS an actual poligaf... Have I been misreading all these years?!!!!

This is PoliGAF. Or at least it was PoliGAF yesterday. The thread title got edited to make fun of how bad we are at posting.

I have to go to the store and don't have time to go find the lana gif and repost it, so please just go find any _melkr post and look at the gif and pretend I put it here.

That gif is us running from ha policy discussion.

 

[ivysaur12]

what if this was PolyGAF

 

[thepotatoman]

I posted this in one of those sensationalist Bernie poll threads, but I'm interested in what you guys think.



I really feel like it would cut down on the ridiculous Bernie threads, and I say this as a Bernie supporter (and before anyone gets on my case, I'm a Bernie supporter, not an extremist. If Bernie doesn't get the nomination, I'll be voting for Hillary).

My account just got approved, so I apologize if this has been deliberated before, but I didn't get much feedback in the other thread.

There is clearly momentum for Bernie, but he still a ways to go. I think he can turn it into a race if he kills it at the debates and Biden never chooses to run.

Unfortunately I'm not very confident about Bernie doing well at the debates. He tends to have the Lindsey Graham problem of turning every question into a chance to talk about his pet issue, which won't look good against a politician whose strongest attribute is probably her debating ability.

There was never any issue with the guys with no money dropping out. It was bound to happen.

And Perry was statistically insignificant.

It'll only matter when guys like Rubio, Kasich, Fiorino, Rand drop out (if they should). Jindal, Graham, etc are irrelevant in this race.



If students voted, the GOP would be inconsequential outside the South.

None of the top 10 are ever going to leave with the supposedly 0% chance to win Trump at the top. They'll take it all the way to Iowa's Caucus in February if they have to.

 

[B-Dubs]

This is PoliGAF. Or at least it was PoliGAF yesterday. The thread title got edited to make fun of how bad we are at posting.

I have to go to the store and don't have time to go find the lana gif and repost it, so please just go find any _melkr post and look at the gif and pretend I put it here.

That gif is us running from ha policy discussion.

Well it's not like there's anything for us to talk about outside the primaries. The Iran deal is set in stone, Cuba is going well and there's not much else unless you guys want to gush over Biden's Late Show interview (which was very good).

 

[brainchild]

This is PoliGAF. Or at least it was PoliGAF yesterday. The thread title got edited to make fun of how bad we are at posting.

I have to go to the store and don't have time to go find the lana gif and repost it, so please just go find any _melkr post and look at the gif and pretend I put it here.

That gif is us running from ha policy discussion.

Mind blown. I just had my first junior gaf moment.

I'm usually on top of the running gags here, but somehow I missed this. I felt like I was in the damn Twilight Zone!

/derail

 

[Black Mamba]

I'm 25 and I generally have the same story. For the people I know, anecdotally of course, it very much feels like apathy. Like they feel like there's so much big business and money clogging up the system that their votes don't matter. I feel like some of them just want to blow it all up and start again instead of bothering to go out and vote.

I just wish there was a way to show people that voting actually matters.

I've noticed that now that I'm older, more people just don't have time to care. Unless you're a junkie, like us, it's hard to find time when you're established and possibly building a family while also trying to maintain sanity by having fun.

 

[Retromelon]

Mind blown. I just had my first junior gaf moment.

I'm usually on top of the running gags here, but somehow I missed this. I felt like I was in the damn Twilight Zone!

/derail

We got you to fall for it tee hee

 

[B-Dubs]

I've noticed that now that I'm older, more people just don't have time to care. Unless you're a junkie, like us, it's hard to find time when you're established and possibly building a family while also trying to maintain sanity by having fun.

That totally makes sense. If I had kids, and a full-time job that consumed my every waking moment, I probably wouldn't spend 20-30 minutes clawing my way through the tabs of a poll unless it was a really interesting one or it was for work. It seems like we go from apathetic to busy and then when we get old and gray we get into voting and politics because it's something to do when we get bored or lose the remote.

 

[PhoenixDark]

As someone with Polish friends I find the thread title offensive. Mods pls.

 

[thepotatoman]

Well it's not like there's anything for us to talk about outside the primaries. The Iran deal is set in stone, Cuba is going well and there's not much else unless you guys want to gush over Biden's Late Show interview (which was very good).

I'm up for another few days of complaining about Schumer's Iran Deal vote instead, even though his vote ultimately doesn't matter.

 

[B-Dubs]

I'm up for another few days of complaining about Schumer's Iran Deal vote instead, even though his vote ultimately doesn't matter.

Yea, but we did like a week on it when he announced. Is there something new with Cuba I've missed? Like are we announcing an ambassador to Cuba yet? I don't think so, shit Obama throw me a bone. Show me you've got fucks left to not give!