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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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Jeb!: "Low energy? This'll show em."
GettyImages-487902774-640x466.jpg

His political heroes

I knew I recognized that woman in the background. That is Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, my Representative for 26 years because of the bitter old Cuban population down here. Guess Jeb was in town.
 
At the rate polls are coming out we will have a poll everyday by somebody.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/down-ticket-races-2016-213138
I'd say North Carolina is Lean R, Ohio is a Tossup, Nevada is Lean D and New Hampshire is a Tossup if Hassan gets in. Lean R for Pennsylvania although it would be great if Sestak or McGuinty could swing that as well. 7 seats seems like the maximum unless something really crazy happens and we end up with Sens. Hill, Kirkpatrick and Kander in 2017.

I hope Democrats make a decent House gain. Probably not even enough to win the House, but enough that the establishment GOP can finally find their balls and tell the extremist wing enough is enough. People said this after Obama won re-election but after the fiscal cliff deal the gridlock actually got worse - but maybe after three electoral college thumpin's they'll get it through their thick skulls.
 

Tarkus

Member
Watching Rand Paul lose his mind has been my favorite thing about this election season thus far.
Trump crushed him so hard last debate..."I don't think you heard me. You're having a hard time tonight."

Brutal low blow. He's probably still pissed about it. I expect a meltdown from Rand. Please oh please.
 
At the rate polls are coming out we will have a poll everyday by somebody.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/down-ticket-races-2016-213138

The more the polls, the better the aggregate. I say we welcome our new pollster overlords, by the day!


Trump crushed him so hard last debate..."I don't think you heard me. You're having a hard time tonight."

Brutal low blow. He's probably still pissed about it. I expect a meltdown from Rand. Please oh please.

I loved that moment. Honestly, the GOP debate was more entertaining than any reality TV show I've seen in the last 10 years, all because of the banter between Trump and everyone else. I eagerly await this next debate!
 
Ineffectively.

It's kind of funny watching pundits refer to Jeb's plan as a good plan and clearly better than whatever Trump will put out. I don't know how Jeb's team did the mental gymnastics to bend over for the wealthy w/ the tax cuts yet again, but hopefully Trump knocks a bit of sense into them. At this point, the fact that mainstream Repubs refuse to change messaging or tactics at all is just sad after years of garbage. If they just shifted the benefits of tax cuts mostly to working poor people, then I think they would do so much better w/ minorities and achieve better economic results. I'm not sure if racism, blind ideology, class warfare, or something else is the problem with those guys.
 
I really like the customizations options on the Huffpost aggregate. I was able to customize the latest aggregate for less smoothing and for a more narrow time window (2016 Election only)

It looks like this

20150913235155689.png


I like how they can generate a screenshot for you, but does anyone know if we can embed scripts in our posts? I would very much prefer that.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I really like the customizations options on the Huffpost aggregate. I was able to customize the latest aggregate for less soothing and for a more narrow time window (2016 Election only)

It looks like this

20150913235155689.png


I like how they can generate a screenshot for you, but does anyone know if we can embed scripts in our posts? I would very much prefer that.

Is there a way to set that to registered democrats or likely voters? I'd like to see what an aggregate of those numbers would look like.
 

joedan

Member
Or maybe it's just a total fluff piece. Every candidate has a handful of supporters that are extremely excited. Ron Paul events were packed full of enthusiastic people.

Trump has an enthusiastic 30% of the GOP and that's about it.

The excitement in the GOP base is around Trump whether you like Trump or not. The reporter's writing was reflecting that excitement. Whether it's enough to win the election is a separate question.
 
Interesting that Biden is competitive to Sanders. I do believe that if Biden jumps in he can get some votes away from both candidates, but Bernie is gonna get hurt slightly more long term.

I can see that few people are choosing Biden or Sanders as an alternative to Hillary so if Joe jumps in he would be seen as an far more effective and safe alternative. Bernie would probably slowly lose support or stagnant over time. If Joe does not say he will run Hillary would probably be in the 50s to 60s and Bernie will probably gain, but not that much. Donors and some other endorsements that are with holding on will break to Hillary.
 
Interesting that Biden is competitive to Sanders. I do believe that if Biden jumps in he can get some votes away from both candidates, but Bernie is gonna get hurt slightly more long term.

I can see that few people are choosing Biden or Sanders as an alternative to Hillary so if Joe jumps in he would be seen as an far more effective and safe alternative. Bernie would probably slowly lose support or stagnant over time. If Joe does not say he will run Hillary would probably be in the 50s to 60s and Bernie will probably gain, but not that much. Donors and some other endorsements that are with holding on will break to Hillary.

I can see this happening as well. It is certainly interesting. Unfortunately, we may never know, as it is looking increasingly unlikely that Biden will run.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Interesting that Biden is competitive to Sanders. I do believe that if Biden jumps in he can get some votes away from both candidates, but Bernie is gonna get hurt slightly more long term.

I can see that few people are choosing Biden or Sanders as an alternative to Hillary so if Joe jumps in he would be seen as an far more effective and safe alternative. Bernie would probably slowly lose support or stagnant over time. If Joe does not say he will run Hillary would probably be in the 50s to 60s and Bernie will probably gain, but not that much. Donors and some other endorsements that are with holding on will break to Hillary.

Yup. The Delaware delegation will certainly be the first. It seems like he is not announcing for another month. I can't see him meeting his October 1st deadline. We will see in two weeks I suppose.

EDIT: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175943039&postcount=16263

The 2nd debate may change minds or cement them. :D
 
I tend to not post when my comment would be redundant. On the occasions where I disagree with "right wing causes," I can always be certain that somebody else has already said what I was thinking. This is NeoGAF, after all.

Opinionwise, perhaps, but it seems your considerable legal insight would be useful.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Interesting that Biden is competitive to Sanders. I do believe that if Biden jumps in he can get some votes away from both candidates, but Bernie is gonna get hurt slightly more long term.

I can see that few people are choosing Biden or Sanders as an alternative to Hillary so if Joe jumps in he would be seen as an far more effective and safe alternative. Bernie would probably slowly lose support or stagnant over time. If Joe does not say he will run Hillary would probably be in the 50s to 60s and Bernie will probably gain, but not that much. Donors and some other endorsements that are with holding on will break to Hillary.

Biden would be the only one running able to steal the Obama coalition away from Hillary if he jumps in. So I'm not surprised he's competitive with Bernie.

I didn't know you guys were doing this. How do I participate?

Just make a pick and make sure he sees it.
 
Tell me who you think will ultimately win the R Nomination. You can switch like Aaron and Ivy did but you must lock it in by October 2nd.

Put me down for Trump for now. If things look shaky after the next debate, I might have to change it, but I honestly don't see that happening. I believe he will have another fantastic performance.
 
I tend to not post when my comment would be redundant. On the occasions where I disagree with "right wing causes," I can always be certain that somebody else has already said what I was thinking. This is NeoGAF, after all.

You know, this is my approach to serious discussion in general (random or silly discussions are completely different), especially on neogaf.

Unfortunately, it results in people thinking that I'm heavily slanted towards certain ideals or preconceptions, but I don't want to contribute to something that plenty of other people already have.

In the case of this thread, I was not pleased with the representation of the Bernie supporters, so I thought it would useful to contribute to the poligaf community with a different perspective as a Bernie supporter. If someone came in here with posts that reflected my perspective, I'd be less likely to post.

I'm more of a lurker than a poster.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Jeb Bush is the most boring looking candidate ever. Seriously. At least Mitt Romney had a pretty rich man face and some awesome hair for an old guy.

Is he suppose to be Clark Kent revealing himself to be superman with that shirt/pose? He doing that awkward smile again.


Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 12h12 hours ago New Jersey, USA
Why is someone like George Pataki, who did a terrible job as Governor of N.Y. and registers ZERO in the polls, allowed on the debate stage?
 
Sanders made his second trip as a candidate this weekend to South Carolina, the first southern primary state where he’ll face a Democratic primary electorate that will be largely African American. Clinton enjoys long-standing support and name recognition there while Sanders is relatively unknown.

Sanders held three public events in South Carolina including a town hall meeting in Columbia at the historically black Benedict College. In Florence, S.C., he also held a town hall and met privately with about 50 mostly black leaders and elected officials, many of whom went into the meeting thinking they were committed to Clinton, said author and civil rights activist Cornel West, who joined Sanders for the events. “It’s clear that they are rethinking their position,” West said. “I think that we’re going to be in for some surprises in the black community in South Carolina.”

Rep. Jim Clyburn, the state’s only Democrat in Congress, said he expects Clinton to sweep South Carolina – under present conditions. Clinton, who came in second in the 2008 South Carolina primary, has lined up support from dozens of mayors and community officials along with two former governors.

Sanders plans to open more offices in South Carolina. But he's also planning to invest in staff and look into advertising in Super Tuesday states and beyond. He scheduled events on Sunday in North Carolina and on Monday in Virginia, including a speech at the evangelical Christian Liberty University.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...lina-polls-hillary-clinton-democrat/72213546/


I guess we'll soon start to see if Bernie Sanders can make any in roads with minority voters. Interesting he's also doing a rally at Christian Liberty University considering they usually only let GOP candidates in such as Ted Cruz and Donald Trump.
Jeb Bush is the most boring looking candidate ever. Seriously. At least Mitt Romney had a pretty rich man face and some awesome hair for an old guy.
It's sad for the GOP that Jeb and any of the other establishment candidates are considerably weaker than Romney. Especially since I felt Romney was a weak candidate who only was viable because the GOP spent 4 years demonizing Obama.
 
I guess we'll soon start to see if Bernie Sanders can make any in roads with minority voters. Interesting he's also doing a rally at Christian Liberty University considering they usually only let GOP candidates in such as Ted Cruz and Donald Trump.

Either they want to debunk his words in their classrooms the day after he makes the speech or they want to see him win. If you were a conservative Republican, wouldn't you be doing everything you can to give Sanders attention and hope he's the one you face in the general?

They're probably salivating at the mere chance of it.
 

Kusagari

Member
I knew I recognized that woman in the background. That is Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, my Representative for 26 years because of the bitter old Cuban population down here. Guess Jeb was in town.

Her being in office has nothing to do with bitter old Cuban's. It has to do with Debbie Wasserman Schultz being friends with her. She gets token opposition every year because any Democrat who dares to challenge her gets effectively blacklisted.

The district is increasingly trending Democrat and voted for Obama in 2012 and yet she gets no challenger of worth because the head of the DNC would rather keep her Republican friends in office than try to win seats.
 
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...lina-polls-hillary-clinton-democrat/72213546/


I guess we'll soon start to see if Bernie Sanders can make any in roads with minority voters. Interesting he's also doing a rally at Christian Liberty University considering they usually only let GOP candidates in such as Ted Cruz and Donald Trump.

It's sad for the GOP that Jeb and any of the other establishment candidates are considerably weaker than Romney. Especially since I felt Romney was a weak candidate who only was viable because the GOP spent 4 years demonizing Obama.

Good for Bernie, but he'll have his work cut out for him. It's not even a matter of his policies not being in alignment with the minority demo, they simply don't know who the fuck he is, and because of that, the damage has already been done.

From their perspective, Hillary is their go to until proven otherwise. If they've already gotten to that point, I'm not sure what Bernie could do to steal them away from Hillary. I don't feel that they will see enough distinction between the two candidates to feel that a change in their vote is necessary.
 
That was so awkward, hahahahahaha. Jeb is done.

Seriously, like a lot of the right-wing guys, he reminds me of the over-confident nerd in high-school running for class president who tries to be charismatic and bold but just sounds like a fucking loser.

My thoughts exactly. A little embarrassing, tbh.
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
I knew I recognized that woman in the background. That is Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, my Representative for 26 years because of the bitter old Cuban population down here. Guess Jeb was in town.

Kicking her out would be lovely progress for Florida. Same for the other clown right next to her.
 
Trump crushed him so hard last debate..."I don't think you heard me. You're having a hard time tonight."

Brutal low blow. He's probably still pissed about it. I expect a meltdown from Rand. Please oh please.
I don't believe I've laughed that hard for so long in politics, ever...It was fucking BRUTAL yet hysterical at the same time. That shit ended Rand's campaign, and he doesn't seem to acknowledge it.
 
Either they want to debunk his words in their classrooms the day after he makes the speech or they want to see him win. If you were a conservative Republican, wouldn't you be doing everything you can to give Sanders attention and hope he's the one you face in the general?

They're probably salivating at the mere chance of it.

Oh yes. SC Republicans. Well-known masters of 11th dimension chess. Pretty sure that that's why Obama took the state in 2008. Those damn republicans, putting the weaker candidate up to get around Hillary yet again. Gosh durn them.
 
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