RustyNails
Member
Jeb!: "Low energy? This'll show em."
His political heroes
I honestly cannot wait for Trump's response to this.
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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print
- Thread starter ivysaur12
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I honestly cannot wait for Trump's response to this.
brainchild
Banned
Have you guys seen this?
https://youtu.be/E2dOlVHLibE
AJ+ does pretty good comedy/satire. I thought it was pretty funny anyway.
https://youtu.be/E2dOlVHLibE
AJ+ does pretty good comedy/satire. I thought it was pretty funny anyway.
You guys probably already talked it to death, but does anyone still think Biden will run after that Colbert interview? It really felt like he made up his mind that he just didn't think he was up for the task of running for President, even with all these constant articles making it seem like he was just about to announce. Even if he does announce that he's running for President, does anyone else think that lack of enthusiasm would really hurt him in his run?
I'm not sure what to think really. I mean, I'm a Bernie fan, but it would be really cool to see Biden run just to get another alternative on the Democratic side. It just doesn't seem likely after that though.
I'm not sure what to think really. I mean, I'm a Bernie fan, but it would be really cool to see Biden run just to get another alternative on the Democratic side. It just doesn't seem likely after that though.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Well, I offered two completely different theories. If you've got an explanation as to why an evangelical christian conservative university is inviting Bernie fucking Sanders to speak at their school then feel free to let me know.
Otherwise, your d-tier sarcasm has been noted. And they are salivating at the thought of having to face him, that's just a fact. Take one look at newsmax, breitbart, or hotair comments section and those nutjobs practically have a hard on every time an article about Sanders surging is on their site.
brainchild
Banned
Nope. In fact, he seems pretty supportive of Bernie (not that that means anything). Besides, it's not like there were any real hints that he was gonna run anyway. But you gotta spice up the polls somehow, right?!
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
For Sanders, it's a tough outlook either way. If Biden does run, there's a strong chance he overtakes him for #2 spot, maybe even #1 in some polls with the announcement bump. But it also means you need a smaller piece of the pie to actually win the whole thing.
On the other hand, if he doesn't run, every poll without Biden shows Clinton back up at 50 percent. So neither scenario is ideal.
RustyNails
Member
I'm 90% sure that Biden is priming for the nomination in case Hillary is found guilty, tried for treason and sent to a blacksite for the emailghazi scandal. This is a contingency plan by the DNC and White House. After that DoJ ruling however, I think Biden's enthusiasm will be a little more subdued. Who knows. He might still jump in but drop out before super tuesday, by which a Hillary nomination is all but declared.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
What I don't get is wouldn't the administration know exactly how the investigation is going? Biden isn't some governor or something who wouldn't know what's going on behind the scenes.
Black Mamba
Member
New WaPo/ABC poll out.
Trump 33
Carson 20
Jeb! 8
Cruz 7
Rubio 7
Walker 2 (lolololololol)
Hillary 42
Bernie 24
Biden 21
Without Biden
Hillary 56
Bernie 28
But you know, Hillary's losing.
Trump 33
Carson 20
Jeb! 8
Cruz 7
Rubio 7
Walker 2 (lolololololol)
Hillary 42
Bernie 24
Biden 21
Without Biden
Hillary 56
Bernie 28
But you know, Hillary's losing.
brainchild
Banned
This is true.
Bernie seems to be running with the strategy of using the grassroots movement to reach the middle class Americans who aren't voting, as he believes this demo is pretty significant in number. He's already carved his niche with the progressive voters, so now he's focusing on bringing in completely new ones.
In essence, the strategy is to mitigate the fact that Hillary's already taken a huge slice of the Democratic pie... by bringing in an increasingly huge slice that's been missing for years. It's a long shot, but if by some work of sorcery he can pull it off, I believe he stands a very good chance at closing the gap.
The problem is that I don't believe in such sorcery. But I'll keep the hope alive until the nomination is set.
The Dem numbers are a story itself, but my god.
I have to say, as a Democrat the prospect of Trump winning the nomination seems like a positive thing as far as winning the election goes. But on the other hand, seeing Carson and Trump on top is freaking me the hell out. Because you never know what could happen, and if an establishment Republican wins you kind of at least know what you are in for. But if you ended up with a President Trump or Carson, holy shit, who knows what they would try to do. I think I'd rather take my chances in an election with Bush.
brainchild
Banned
I can't tell if you're serious, but the Dems are not in dire straits. Even if Hillary was handed over to the Chinese, Biden seems to have no problem with letting Bernie coast to the finish line.
This notion that Biden is priming for back up seems like nothing more than wishful thinking to me. Yes, I understand that we all want more viable alternatives to Hillary, but wanting it doesn't make it more likely to happen.
It'll be interesting to see how this affects the aggregate.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
It's crazy how this poll pretty much EXACTLY describes the situation I was laying out a few posts before it.
brainchild
Banned
I noticed! Lol
brainchild
Banned
Don't believe anyone's posted the GOP aggregate.
Interestingly, the numbers are remarkably more consistent between pollsters for the GOP compared to the DNC. Very few outliers. As far as aggregate polls go, the DNC aggregate seems less predictable.
EDIT:
Sorry, I had to update the chart as somehow I ended up with an outdated one. I also changed the parameters to a more narrow time window, less smoothing, and higher percentage range.
Interestingly, the numbers are remarkably more consistent between pollsters for the GOP compared to the DNC. Very few outliers. As far as aggregate polls go, the DNC aggregate seems less predictable.
EDIT:
Sorry, I had to update the chart as somehow I ended up with an outdated one. I also changed the parameters to a more narrow time window, less smoothing, and higher percentage range.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
The Republican candidates are pretty much all doing the same for state polling too. Donald Trump around 30%, Carson around 20%, Bush around 10% is what you see in pretty much every single state.
Kasich might still be leading in Ohio, Walker might still be leading in Wisconsin, but that's about it. Bush is third even in Florida.
Kasich might still be leading in Ohio, Walker might still be leading in Wisconsin, but that's about it. Bush is third even in Florida.
You mean bringing in liberals who Democrat leaning voters who otherwise have been disengaged and not voting for a long time?
I can't imagine Sanders bringing many people to the table who weren't motivated by Obama in 2008. What demographics will Sanders reach that Obama didn't?
If he does though, then win or lose the primary, hopefully those efforts result in more people turning up at the polls in the general given how low voter turnout is in the US. Though the "if Sanders doesn't get the nomination, I'm not voting for Clinton" crowd is disheartening.
brainchild
Banned
Speaking from personal experience, I was one of those people. I know many people like this. I did not, nor the others I'm referring to, vote for Obama. I did not vote because I was too principled and refused to give my vote to someone I felt was merely a standard politician who happened to be good at saying the right things. I had no confidence in Obama and thought he was full of shit. Not only did I not vote for him, sometimes I wouldn't vote at all, or I did write-ins for Ralph Nader.
I have since learned from my stupidity and realized that regardless of my principles, I need to do my part in making sure the future of my country is as less shitty as possible. However, other people who thought like me are still like that. Most of them don't even pay attention to politics anymore. They've given up. And yes, if they discover Bernie and support him, and then he doesn't get the nomination, they're not gonna vote for Hillary. It's unfortunate, but it's true.
This is why we need to be careful with thinking that certain demographics are tapped out simply because there's no indication that there's more of them. The absence of evidence is not evidence unto itself. We don't know about them because they don't bother to put themselves out there.
I think sometimes when analyzing politics we can get so caught up in what we know that we don't consider what we don't know, and how those unknown factors are affecting the political climate. It's why I'm so curious about the people who don't vote. We have our calculus, statistics, and sample sizes to give us glimpses, but the truth is that we don't know enough.
One day I might be inspired enough to really dig into political science and search for the answers with my own methodologies, because I feel like a scientist whose right on the fringe of common knowledge, and yearning to go beyond the frontier and into uncharted territories. I want to know the truth!!
I'm sorry but there's not a shred of evidence anywhere that theres a large amount of 'willing to vote but Democrats aren't left wing enough' voters out there. Expanding the pool of voters is incredibly hard - Obama only partially managed it despite a once in a lifetime campaign, as one of the generations best politicians. I really don't see Bernie doing that, and to date we haven't any evidence he would.
brainchild
Banned
You're right, there isn't evidence. But that's the point. Absence of evidence isn't the evidence of absence.
And it's not about needing to be more left, it's about people being unmotivated to vote because there are no satisfactory candidates.
It is not inconceivable that some people who don't vote also aren't actively involved in serious political discussion and make themselves scarce to the public. I should know. I was one of them. The pollsters and the pundits never knew about me. But maybe I didn't exist because there was no evidence...
EDIT:
Also, who the hell is saying that expanding the pool would be easy?!! I already consider it a foregone conclusion that Bernie will be unlikely to have achieved this. I'm just stating his strategy!
I actually believe there might be a significant number of those people -- I just don't think they're in swing states.
People with like beliefs tend to cluster. If you're an extreme liberal, you probably live around a whole lot of less extreme liberals, say, in California. Your not voting won't end up mattering, and convincing you to vote really won't matter either. Running up the score in CA does nothing. Winning requires taking the swing states, which are swing states explicitly because they're demographically balanced between conservative and liberal and so probably contain very few extremists. This is, actually, one of the potential issues with the electoral college.
Officerrob
Banned
I'll never understand the Carson surge into second place
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
This pretty much explains it. Candidates don't express moderate views in the general election because they like to for fun, they do it because their ideological base is NOT ENOUGH to win and never will be.
Having just watched that awful, *awful* Bush video linked above I'm left wondering. Does the leadership on the right honestly believe there ridiculous rhetoric about just need to be strong and the rest of the world falls into line, or is it a political front and they know that the world simply doesn't work like that?
I mean, Reagan compromised repeatedly in office. On the other hand, Bush junior really did try the 'America goes it on their own' policy and look how that worked out...
I mean, Reagan compromised repeatedly in office. On the other hand, Bush junior really did try the 'America goes it on their own' policy and look how that worked out...
brainchild
Banned
And yet we still don't know the extent of those ideological bases...
But it's not like it matters. In our current political climate, pure ideology is not going to win anybody any election. However, I don't think it's worthless to go after people who don't vote. It's a real problem in our country and if no one chases after them, they will continue to stay in the shadows.
Who knows, maybe Kanye will raise the voter turn out...
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I've explained it at length numerous times.
Folksy, smart, black guy that denies racism is still a major problem, trivializes today's major issues by trying to simplify them into Biblical context (e.g., 10% flat tax), and a nearly complete Washington outsider who appears to be disgusted with Washington and politics in general. Oh, and don't forget how he makes it sound like the presidency would be such an easy job that "I separated Siamese twins" was an acceptable answer for why he'd make a good president.
Many, many GOP voters go nuts for that stuff. Everyone on here thought he "lost" the last debate. In their eyes, he absolutely crushed it.
neurosisxeno
Member
I'm still holding out for a Sanders nomination. He's the first political campaign I've donated too and the only person running for president I've actually met in person. He's a fantastic person and I have no doubt he's qualified.
He's a black republican that opposes Obama. Think of him as the Reverse Obama. He supports the crazy xenophobic agenda the religious right loves, while being black so it makes their agenda seem like it can't possibly be racist.
He's a black republican that opposes Obama. Think of him as the Reverse Obama. He supports the crazy xenophobic agenda the religious right loves, while being black so it makes their agenda seem like it can't possibly be racist.
brainchild
Banned
This is actually a pretty plausible explanation. Very astute.
Agreed on all accounts. I'm currently volunteering for the campaign, and it's been incredibly satisfying seeing people go from knowing nothing about him to actually donating money. His campaign is the first I've donated to as well.
This is brilliant, lol.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Trump got called a clown at miss america.
https://twitter.com/wareaglereader/status/643255755089518592/video/1
*Not his own pageant since apparently there's five different variation of miss usa/america/whatever.
https://twitter.com/wareaglereader/status/643255755089518592/video/1
*Not his own pageant since apparently there's five different variation of miss usa/america/whatever.
brainchild
Banned
That's a pageant alright. I'm not even sure Trump will see the need to dignify this with a response. She complains that he's "taking away attention from incredible candidates like Jeb Bush and Chris Christie".
The jokes write themselves with this one.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Yahoo said:
"I'm getting crushed in polls right now, so I might as well just pretty much openly attack the middle- and lower-class."
Yeah, let's get rid of the group that makes sure employers aren't taking advantage of employees. Let's get back to the good ol' days of the Industrial Revolution! Any 7-year olds up for some coal mining?
brainchild
Banned
7 year olds can't carry much coal. Better to use them to clean chimneys, sewers, and air ducts, and send the 9+ year olds into the mines.
brainchild
Banned
NYCmetsfan
Banned
He's talking about the NLRB not safety. But walker is comic book level of villainy. This stuff borders on violating a bunch of international agreements on the rights of workers to organize.
His contempt for working people demanding dignity is scary
I don't think he'll run. I was surprised by how old and tired he looked in that interview - the moment has passed and I think he knows it.
The Trump train doesn't seem to be slowing down any time soon. I'm not sure the fact he's clueless on policy is even going to matter. He might get caught out at the debates but he's such an entertainer he'll probably breeze past it anyway. Fascinating stuff.
Avon Barksdale
Member
So the Australian PM was ousted...by his own party.
BertramCooper
Banned
Hahaha. Walker and his obsession with unions.
Try winning Ohio in a general election with that shit, Scotty.
I'm beginning to think that trying to get non-voters excited to vote with rockstar presidential candidates is completely counterproductive. We really don't need to pad the numbers during presidential elections with starry-eyed bandwagoners, what we need is to get the people who already vote consistently in presidential elections to fuckin' show up in the damn midterms so the President can actually push through a legislative agenda. Projecting a West Wing fantasy on to a President, then getting all disillusioned after he can't do shit coz you didn't give him a Congress to work with just makes the cycle worse. That's how we get more "both sides are the same maaaan" jackholes.
I have no idea how to fix this, since even Obama has made speeches about how he needs everyone to vote for representatives to help him out, but that didn't do shit. People just want to be part of the cheering crowd and enjoy their glamorous feel-good tribalism without putting in the work.
Maybe we need presidential campaigns to give an ultimatum to their volunteers -- commit to pounding pavement for congressional candidates in the next midterm as well or get the fuck out. Like that would happen.
Guess you can't cure electoral stupid.
And yeah, we need a damn FAQ on why Carson is in a strong second place, that gets asked almost as often as "why come they no fire Kim Davis?"
I have no idea how to fix this, since even Obama has made speeches about how he needs everyone to vote for representatives to help him out, but that didn't do shit. People just want to be part of the cheering crowd and enjoy their glamorous feel-good tribalism without putting in the work.
Maybe we need presidential campaigns to give an ultimatum to their volunteers -- commit to pounding pavement for congressional candidates in the next midterm as well or get the fuck out. Like that would happen.
Guess you can't cure electoral stupid.
And yeah, we need a damn FAQ on why Carson is in a strong second place, that gets asked almost as often as "why come they no fire Kim Davis?"
Like waking up from a nightmare.
BertramCooper
Banned
Have we come up with a thread title for Debate No. 2 yet?
I feel like it has to have the word "Reagan" in it at least twice.
I feel like it has to have the word "Reagan" in it at least twice.
Tarkus
Member
Trolling Harder than Trump's Toupée
Poodlestrike
Banned
Still voting for "Carnival of Twats," but something about Reagan would be good too. "Trickle-down polling," maybe?
brainchild
Banned
Well I'll tell you how Bernie intends to do it.
He intends to do it by ensuring that his supporters understand that the he would be a practically meaningless government official if he was elected as POTUS but could not get congressional support in his favor. After his supporters grasp this fundamental concept, they would in turn #spreadthebern with a grassroots movement, in an effort to increase his chances of winning the nomination and ultimately the general election, so that they have a leader who will help them change the congressional landscape. If all goes according to plan, and Bernie is elected POTUS, he will use his platform as president to officially begin the process by exposing the congress as the adversary, and imploring the American people to give the congress a make over with their voting power. With a new congress, he can then proceed with a level of progressivism that was thought to nearly impossible to achieve.
tl;dr version
Bernie is trying to recruit pragmatic supporters that will commit to a long term POST-ELECTION movement in order to overthrow congress. After shiny new congress is acquired, Bernie will nuke the oligarchy from orbit.
It's a pipe dream, but if he became POTUS, and the people voted, it WOULD work. Unfortunately, he'll probably never get the chance.
But what's is amazing is that HE ACTUALLY CONSTRUCTED A PLAN for this. Only candidate even talking about this. The man is incredibly prudent.
BertramCooper
Banned
GOP Presidential Debate No. 2 |OT| Win one for the Gallup-er
Pfft. I dunno. Need more coffee.
Pfft. I dunno. Need more coffee.
GOP Presidential Debate No. 2 |OT| Now Go Do That Voodoo That You Do So Well!
Taggart: What do you want me to do, sir?
Hedley Lamarr: I want you to round up every vicious criminal and gunslinger in the west. Take this down.
Hedley Lamarr: I want rustlers, cut throats, murderers, bounty hunters, desperados, mugs, pugs, thugs, nitwits, halfwits, dimwits, vipers, snipers, con men, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, muggers, buggerers, bushwhackers, hornswogglers, horse thieves, bull dykes, train robbers, bank robbers, ass-kickers, shit-kickers and Methodists.
Macho Madness
Member
GOP Presidential Debate No. 2 |OT| Have I told you how much I love Ronald Reagan yet?
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