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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Are you being serious? Excluding tons of things that makes Hillary a superior candidate why vote Hillary?

Electability is the MOST important issue in a primary.

Of course I'm being serious? I was trying to see things from the other perspective, thought about what issues I prefer Hillary to Sanders over (guns) and ones I could see others preferring her to him over (being a woman, not being an independent, electability), and just wanted to check I hadn't missed anything - which apparently I haven't, although I'd like to hear from y2kev because he normally has some interesting points. You guys need to take some chill pills, what's the point of even having a PoliGAF thread if you only want to talk to people who share your own point of view?
 
Quick question for anyone up to it and not looking for a fight but rather a genuine opinion, could some Hillary supporters here explain why they would rather vote for Hillary than Sanders in the Democratic primary, excluding electability concerns, gun policies, her being a woman, and Sander's Independent rather than Democratic status? That is, which non-gun *policy* stances they genuinely prefer Hillary on rather than Sanders? Again, not looking for confrontation, just curious. :)
I'm not voting for Hillary in the primary but if I was, in addition to these excluded reasons I suppose it would be because she is likely ready to battle the current political climate better than anyone. She's a proven fighter and has the connections and know how to get stuff done. In regards to being president it isn't always about who is "better" policy wise than who. Other than guns, there really isn't anything I find myself more in agreement with her on. But that's not what it's about. In the game of politics the president can't just get what they want, it's about their ability to get the most they can. Despite how much I agree with Bernie on basically everything policy wise I question Bernies ability to lead the party and get everybody even on his own side in agreement and chose the right battles to fight. He's so committed to his goals, that I'm not sure if he can make victories look good. For example, he believes in a $15 minimum wage nationally. Has emphasized that it must happen. He won't get it, but let's say he gets it up to 9.75 nationally.. Will he be able to spin that as a victory or is he setting his base up for disappointment by promising unrealistic goals.

Im still voting for him, I am a huge fan of everything he is doing, but there's more to voting than policy and how far left you are. The rights insistence on pushing right values, not willing to compromise and setting unrealistic goals is exactly why they are performing so poorly nationally and their base hates their establishment.
 
Quick question for anyone up to it and not looking for a fight but rather a genuine opinion, could some Hillary supporters here explain why they would rather vote for Hillary than Sanders in the Democratic primary, excluding electability concerns, gun policies, her being a woman, and Sander's Independent rather than Democratic status? That is, which non-gun *policy* stances they genuinely prefer Hillary on rather than Sanders? Again, not looking for confrontation, just curious. :)

Sure you are.

Here's the deal with Sanders. You can't brush off "electability" because the point of a primary is to get yourself elected.

There's little daylight in the policy positions between Sanders and Clinton. And what little distinction exists is irrelevant because Democrats control neither house nor senate. It's all well and good to be in favor of single payer healthcare or legalized marijuana, but what is Sanders going to do when the republicans in the house tell him to go fuck himself? Exactly.

The reason why Berniebros love Sanders- that is, his approach and rhetoric- makes him toxic as a candidate in the general. Moderates hate him. Minorities don't like him. He has no appeal outside of 20 something white males who just discovered politics. Hillary's appeal in nearly every other demographic is flat out better, because she understands that the vast majority of the country is moderate and your language must be tailored appropriately.

Democrats can win the presidency with almost any serious candidate, the electoral college works in their favor. That candidate needs to be able to take advantage of the presidential election year to increase participation in down ballot races in the house and Senate since that's where dems are weakest, turning out women, minorities, and moderates who would otherwise tune out or stay home. Bernie's appeal with these voters is beyond abysmal. Hillary isn't my dream candidate, but she's damn sure better here than Sanders.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Okay, so it is mostly electability. That's fine, I was just checking. Follow up question: as it stands, Sanders is pretty darn unlikely to win the Democratic primary. His odds with the bookies and in-traders are both at around 15% to Clinton's 85%. If you generally favour Sanders on things that aren't electability, isn't it better to vote Sanders (or tell pollsters you intend to vote for him) in the primary, even if you prefer Clinton overall because of your emphasis on electability? After all, Clinton will win anyway, but a vote for Sanders is an indication that you feel she's not satisfactory on issue X. Clinton has to change her position in light of that (median voter theory), so in the end, you have a candidate who is both a) electable and b) somewhat closer to the positions you want. We've seen evidence of this already so far this campaign - TPP being probably the most prominent one. Would you consider using a tactical vote for Sanders (obviously excluding a situation where he looks close to winning)? If not, why not?
 

AntoneM

Member
Of course I'm being serious? I was trying to see things from the other perspective, thought about what issues I prefer Hillary to Sanders over (guns) and ones I could see others preferring her to him over (being a woman, not being an independent, electability), and just wanted to check I hadn't missed anything - which apparently I haven't, although I'd like to hear from y2kev because he normally has some interesting points. You guys need to take some chill pills, what's the point of even having a PoliGAF thread if you only want to talk to people who share your own point of view?
You basically ask this: Other than its huge selection, cheap prices, convenience, and great customer service, why do Amazon.com shoppers shop there versus Walmart.com?

Anyway, to answer your question, leadership. I think she is a much better and more competent leader than Sanders. It already send like his campaign is slipping before things have really gotten started. If he can't run a campaign staff well he can run a country well. Outside of riling up his natural constituency he's having a hard time getting anyone else on board.
 
Also, sort of unrelated, but one of the biggest issues during Obama's presidency was the issue of democrats running away from him. As has been said on here, run away from the current president in your party, you lose, regardless of how they are doing.

Does anyone think that democrats running at the local and state level will run away from Hillary like they did Obama? I doubt it. They'll bow down to our empress lady of darkness and we'll probably do better in local elections and primaries because of it.
 
Okay, so it is mostly electability. That's fine, I was just checking. Follow up question: as it stands, Sanders is pretty darn unlikely to win the Democratic primary. His odds with the bookies and in-traders are both at around 15% to Clinton's 85%. If you generally favour Sanders on things that aren't electability, isn't it better to vote Sanders (or tell pollsters you intend to vote for him) in the primary, even if you prefer Clinton overall because of your emphasis on electability? After all, Clinton will win anyway, but a vote for Sanders is an indication that you feel she's not satisfactory on issue X. Clinton has to change her position in light of that (median voter theory), so in the end, you have a candidate who is both a) electable and b) somewhat closer to the positions you want. We've seen evidence of this already so far this campaign - TPP being probably the most prominent one. Would you consider using a tactical vote for Sanders (obviously excluding a situation where he looks close to winning)? If not, why not?

Hillary doesn't have to do a damned thing when she's winning by 60 to 30 margins.

Sanders is irrelevant as competition and can't force her positions anywhere..
Not that there's much he would be able to force her anyway since their policy positions are 90% similar in the first place.

If he was a skilled debater the story might be different, but Sanders prides himself on not preparing for debates, and tends to come off as your cranky uncle when he's up on the podium.

He's barely out of joke candidate status here and barely worth thinking about, much less voting for. Shame Biden didn't run, he would have played the role much better than Sanders is able to.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
You basically ask this: Other than its huge selection, cheap prices, convenience, and great customer service, why do Amazon.com shoppers shop there versus Walmart.com?

I mean, Clinton being a woman and Sanders being an independent are close to irrelevant to me. They don't feature in my priorities much. Sanders' stance on guns is a serious concern to me, but I sufficiently prefer his stances on other issues I'm willing to tolerate him being a worse candidate to Clinton on this issue. Electability is a concern to me, but I disagree with the premise Sanders would do worse in the primaries than Clinton - I think the reverse is probably true.

Nevertheless, that's an aside. I just wanted to check there weren't reasons I was missing, hence why I passed over ones I could think of myself. Having a fair and reasoned understanding of those who disagree with you is pretty important.
 
Okay, so it is mostly electability. That's fine, I was just checking. Follow up question: as it stands, Sanders is pretty darn unlikely to win the Democratic primary. His odds with the bookies and in-traders are both at around 15% to Clinton's 85%. If you generally favour Sanders on things that aren't electability, isn't it better to vote Sanders (or tell pollsters you intend to vote for him) in the primary, even if you prefer Clinton overall because of your emphasis on electability? After all, Clinton will win anyway, but a vote for Sanders is an indication that you feel she's not satisfactory on issue X. Clinton has to change her position in light of that (median voter theory), so in the end, you have a candidate who is both a) electable and b) somewhat closer to the positions you want. We've seen evidence of this already so far this campaign - TPP being probably the most prominent one. Would you consider using a tactical vote for Sanders (obviously excluding a situation where he looks close to winning)? If not, why not?

This is exactly what I am doing, but not everyone is going to vote like that. People generally vote for who they want to win and be the next president rather than vote based on the perception that they'll win anyway and vote for the most left candidate.

It's unusual to have so few challengers in a new cycle, like, I wouldn't have voted for Sanders had Biden got in, because I'd rather have Hillary than him. I would have jumped off the Sanders bandwagon and voted Hillary if there was any other establishment threat even though I align with Sanders more policy wise.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Hillary doesn't have to do a damned thing when she's winning by 60 to 30 margins.

Sanders is irrelevant as competition and can't force her positions anywhere.

Okay, but this is at least partially true because people similar to e.g. the people in this thread write him off and don't even consider him, which is one of the factors responsible for that 55-32 current average. If Hillary was winning by only, say, 50-40 current averages, it's pretty plausible she'd triangulate somewhat more closely to Sanders' positions - it'd be risky not to. Guns aside, nobody has named a Clinton position they prefer to a Sanders one, so I'm guessing you either prefer Sanders on other stances or are ambivalent. So why write him off? Why not tactically support him to make Clinton nudge closer to the policy positions that, guns aside, you prefer?

He's barely out of joke candidate status here and barely worth thinking about, much less voting for. Shame Biden didn't run, he would have played the role much better than Sanders is able to.

Biden is to the right of Hillary, though. A semi-successful Biden run would have pulled Clinton right, not left - he could never do to the national conversation what Sanders is/hypothetically could.
 
This is exactly what I am doing, but not everyone is going to vote like that. People generally vote for who they want to win and be the next president rather than vote based on the perception that they'll win anyway and vote for the most left candidate.

It's unusual to have so few challengers in a new cycle, like, I wouldn't have voted for Sanders had Biden got in, because I'd rather have Hillary than him. I would have jumped off the Sanders bandwagon and voted Hillary if there was any other establishment threat even though I align with Sanders more policy wise.

It's not really that unusual. Typically the incumbent has the VP run for the nomination either unopposed or with little serious competition. Hillary is basically taking that role instead of Biden which isn't a surprise to anyone paying attention.

It's not much different than GHWB running after Reagan or Gore running after Clinton. All the serious opposition was on the other side. GWB was unusual because Cheyney was too toxic to run.
 

Cheebo

Banned
Okay, so it is mostly electability. That's fine, I was just checking. Follow up question: as it stands, Sanders is pretty darn unlikely to win the Democratic primary. His odds with the bookies and in-traders are both at around 15% to Clinton's 85%. If you generally favour Sanders on things that aren't electability, isn't it better to vote Sanders (or tell pollsters you intend to vote for him) in the primary, even if you prefer Clinton overall because of your emphasis on electability? After all, Clinton will win anyway, but a vote for Sanders is an indication that you feel she's not satisfactory on issue X. Clinton has to change her position in light of that (median voter theory), so in the end, you have a candidate who is both a) electable and b) somewhat closer to the positions you want. We've seen evidence of this already so far this campaign - TPP being probably the most prominent one. Would you consider using a tactical vote for Sanders (obviously excluding a situation where he looks close to winning)? If not, why not?
I want her to spend her time and money focused on the general. Prolonging the primary the primary despite the inventiable outcome does not benefit anyone. The earlier she can focus on the general 100% the better.

The only thing that matters is winning the general. It's a complete waste of time to even consider the Dem primary anymore at this point. It's time to move on.
 
Okay, but this is at least partially true because people similar to e.g. the people in this thread write him off and don't even consider him, which is one of the factors responsible for that 55-32 current average. If Hillary was winning by only, say, 50-40 current averages, it's pretty plausible she'd triangulate somewhat more closely to Sanders' positions - it'd be risky not to. Guns aside, nobody has named a Clinton position they prefer to a Sanders one, so I'm guessing you either prefer Sanders on other stances or ambivalent. So why write him off? Why not tactically support him to make Clinton nudge closer to the policy positions that, guns aside, you prefer?



Biden is to the right of Hillary, though. A semi-successful Biden run would have pulled Clinton right, not left - he could never do to the national conversation what Sanders is/hypothetically could.

As I've said numerous times already there is no significant policy distinctions between the two. What differences exist would never make it through a republican Congress.

The big difference is in approach and tactics. Hillary can articulate her policies and positions in a way that doesn't alienate minorities and moderates and Sanders can't.

Firing up college students and no one else is less than useless.
 

Konka

Banned
Okay, so it is mostly electability. That's fine, I was just checking. Follow up question: as it stands, Sanders is pretty darn unlikely to win the Democratic primary. His odds with the bookies and in-traders are both at around 15% to Clinton's 85%. If you generally favour Sanders on things that aren't electability, isn't it better to vote Sanders (or tell pollsters you intend to vote for him) in the primary, even if you prefer Clinton overall because of your emphasis on electability? After all, Clinton will win anyway, but a vote for Sanders is an indication that you feel she's not satisfactory on issue X. Clinton has to change her position in light of that (median voter theory), so in the end, you have a candidate who is both a) electable and b) somewhat closer to the positions you want. We've seen evidence of this already so far this campaign - TPP being probably the most prominent one. Would you consider using a tactical vote for Sanders (obviously excluding a situation where he looks close to winning)? If not, why not?

I would like to get this sorry excuse for a primary over with and start preparing for the general election.
 
Hillary doesn't have to do a damned thing when she's winning by 60 to 30 margins.

Sanders is irrelevant as competition and can't force her positions anywhere..
Not that there's much he would be able to force her anyway since their policy positions are 90% similar in the first place.

If he was a skilled debater the story might be different, but Sanders prides himself on not preparing for debates, and tends to come off as your cranky uncle when he's up on the podium.

He's barely out of joke candidate status here and barely worth thinking about, much less voting for. Shame Biden didn't run, he would have played the role much better than Sanders is able to.


I disagree with this. Sanders is doing exactly what he set out to do. It is pretty clear honestly that he is influencing the Democratic political spectrum. He isn't a joke candidate at all. Lincoln Chafee was a joke; nobody talked about him other than how he gave probably the worst answer in any debate ever.

Sanders has a lot of fans and support and is creating a ton of media buzz. Hillary can't just ignore him or his base and what they want at this point. Even if it doesn't compare overall to her support still a sizable chunk of the democratic party voters support him and like everything he is saying right now. Sure it doesn't have her shaking in her boots or anything but still I feel like the influence is there.
 
I'm not hugely convinced on the premise that Sanders himself has actually moved her broader policy platforms leftward anyway.

On single issues like the TPP or oil pipeline where she's had to make a public stance, sure.

But her plan seems to have been to craft positions that are appealing enough to the primary electorate, without being alienating to the general electorate. And she would have done that regardless of who was running to her left.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Electability has been pretty well-covered, but I actually have another angle that I'm approaching 2016 with: the possibility of coattails (or.. pantsuit-tails?)

I'm wondering if women, sensing a big moment in history, will increase in turnout if Hillary's at the top of the ticket. If so, their turnout could result in better congressional landscape for the Democrats. More Senate padding for 2018, allowing court-stacking to continue unimpeded through 2021? A smaller GOP majority in the House? (Dare I hope beyond this..?)

Election Day 2016 seems like an eternity away. But as the hype levels get ratchet-up with each passing month, each convention, VP picks, debates.. this is going to loom larger in voters' minds, even if it's something that they won't explicitly verbalize. It's going to feel much more real.

One anecdotal: after the 11-hour Benghazi session, I saw even apolitical women in my workplace, Twitter feed, and family cheering Hillary on. Some of them had apathy toward her before, some of them were begrudging in their praise while admitting that she had some real lady-balls for what she's capable of, others got remarkably excited by seeing a woman on their TVs kicking the asses of all those investigators. The reactions were remarkable.

I suspect that this sentiment could increase as we approach Election Day. It could come in the form of increased female turnout. It could come in the form of a wider gender gap. It could be both. But given how flexible the female vote is, and how significant a size the female electorate is.. this is a huge opportunity. Nudge the margins among females, and this race is essentially over.
 

dramatis

Member
I saw a few posts here and there about the kerfuffle between the Hillary and Bernie camps about what she said about when women speak, men think they're shouting, etc.

I didn't think she was accusing Bernie of sexism, just making a statement in general, but it seems like the Bernie camp took it a bit too seriously?

In any case, this Vox article kind of expresses exactly the feeling I had.
Clinton didn't say or imply that Bernie intentionally slighted her based on her gender. She did imply that her gender made him see her differently, and that many women have this same experience all the time. That idea should be a lot less controversial than it often turns out to be.
[...]
Reporter John Heilemann said Weaver was "at least half-joking" when he said that, but a lot of people didn't find it funny. The comment reeked of head-patting condescension, the kind that highly qualified women often endure from men who don't take them seriously. Weaver insisted that his comments were "edgy or snarky but nothing more," and also doubled down on the idea that Clinton had launched a "vicious attack" on the Sanders campaign with her "accusations of sexism."

The media also went nuts over "accusations of sexism" and overamplified women's concerns about it until they sounded like "shouting" (literally, in the case of one Politico headline). When Emily's List president Stephanie Schriock criticized Weaver's remarks on Twitter as a "condescending insult by a team who knows better," a New York Times headline blew up her tweet into, "Emily's List Official Accuses Bernie Sanders Team of Sexism." At Slate, William Saletan said that Clinton was "smearing" Sanders as "a sexist" and "manipulating women and abusing feminist anger for her own advantage."

This flare-up is an example of the kind of thing that keeps happening whenever women try to point out microaggressions — all the little daily sexist slights that may not mean much individually but add up over a lifetime. Even well-meaning progressives sometimes freak out over discussions of "sexism," because they think they are being personally accused of being sexist. This makes people defensive, and it leads to the kind of bunker mentality that makes Weaver call Clinton's winking quip a "vicious attack."
Last paragraph makes me think of racism lol

Btw Abinash linked the full TPP text, it's out.
 
I'm not hugely convinced on the premise that Sanders himself has actually moved her broader policy platforms leftward anyway.

On single issues like the TPP or oil pipeline where she's had to make a public stance, sure.

But her plan seems to have been to craft positions that are appealing enough to the primary electorate, without being alienating to the general electorate. And she would have done that regardless of who was running to her left.

Exactly
 
I disagree with this. Sanders is doing exactly what he set out to do. It is pretty clear honestly that he is influencing the Democratic political spectrum. He isn't a joke candidate at all. Lincoln Chafee was a joke; nobody talked about him other than how he gave probably the worst answer in any debate ever.

Sanders has a lot of fans and support and is creating a ton of media buzz. Hillary can't just ignore him or his base and what they want at this point. Even if it doesn't compare overall to her support still a sizable chunk of the democratic party voters support him and like everything he is saying right now. Sure it doesn't have her shaking in her boots or anything but still I feel like the influence is there.

Hillary can and probably will ignore Sanders base in the primary, since his base is historically and statistically the least likely to actually show up at polls. Running to the left to placate ideologues and first time college voters is nonsensical if it compromises her appeal with moderates on the general.

As shinra says, this is precisely the track she's taking...giving moderate or noncommittal answers instead of going left. The marijuana legalization answer in the last debate was a blindingly obvious example of this.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
As I've said numerous times already there is no significant policy distinctions between the two. What differences exist would never make it through a republican Congress.

I mean, at the very least your first statement is pretty spurious. If there was no difference between them in terms of policy-position, you wouldn't be rushing to deride him as a joke candidate, right? There's some pretty appreciable differences, ranging from the economy to justice reform to foreign policy. Now, it may be true that these differences might not make it through a Republican Congress - although I think there's a more than reasonable chance that the Democrats retake the Senate in 2016, which leaves only the House as an obstacle. Nevertheless, law-making is not the *only* important aspect of the White House, right? There's also the bully pulpit effect - you set the terms of the national conversation. Do you think Sanders and Clinton would be having the same conversation?

The big difference is in approach and tactics. Hillary can articulate her policies and positions in a way that doesn't alienate minorities and moderates and Sanders can't.

Firing up college students and no one else is less than useless.

I mean, Sanders' favourable ratios among minorities are not significantly different to Clinton's - Quinnipac's latest was 85-12 Clinton and 57-8 Sanders among black voters, with the rest for both Unsure/No opinion, which is about 7:1 and 6.5:1 approval:disapproval respectively. Sanders main problem isn't that he alienates minorities - they don't even know who he is!
 

HylianTom

Banned
I like how Clinton is the pragmatic choice and than all the pie in the sky you guys keep talking about.
Assuming you're talking about me, I'll admit that it's a hunch. I'll gladly admit if/when I'm wrong.

But I'm also not going to buy into the incredibly naive idea that a century's worth of "socialism=evil" programming can be undone in one election cycle. Especially when one side has oodles of superPAC money and our guy is saying that he wants to unilaterally disarm in the big money race.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I'm not hugely convinced on the premise that Sanders himself has actually moved her broader policy platforms leftward anyway.

On single issues like the TPP or oil pipeline where she's had to make a public stance, sure.

But her plan seems to have been to craft positions that are appealing enough to the primary electorate, without being alienating to the general electorate. And she would have done that regardless of who was running to her left.

I think this is a weak argument. The primary electorate aren't some exogenous group that have predetermined preferences that don't change, and therefore have some given policy position which will always win. Instead, people's opinions change *during* the primary, as people are persuaded by candidates or get politicized by the whole process. If Sanders had never entered the primary to begin with, and Biden had launched a serious campaign instead, then the average Democratic voter would probably have more right-leaning views than under the status quo because nobody had been making the case otherwise. Do you think that Clinton would have held the same positions she currently does in this alternate Biden-not-Bernie-verse? Almost certainly not, because the policies designed to appeal to primary voters would have to be different ones when the primary voters themselves think differently. Clinton doesn't have to adapt directly to Sanders, but she *does* have to adapt to the effect he has on primary voters.
 

pigeon

Banned
Quick question for anyone up to it and not looking for a fight but rather a genuine opinion, could some Hillary supporters here explain why they would rather vote for Hillary than Sanders in the Democratic primary, excluding electability concerns, gun policies, her being a woman, and Sander's Independent rather than Democratic status? That is, which non-gun *policy* stances they genuinely prefer Hillary on rather than Sanders? Again, not looking for confrontation, just curious. :)

Sanders is wrong on protectionism and immigration. It's the danger of a populist candidate -- populist economics is xenophobic by nature.

Crab's not Erasure, guys, give him a chance.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Sanders is wrong on protectionism and immigration. It's the danger of a populist candidate -- populist economics is xenophobic by nature.

Why is he wrong on either? I'm also at a loss to understand why Sanders is the populist candidate. I mean, populism by definition is saying what people want to hear in contrast to having a defined political ideology. That's like... the opposite of Sanders. Clinton is much closer to being a populist candidate than he is, although I don't think either are.
 
She expected a leftward challenge from O'Malley initially, from memory.
There's an old Politico story, I believe I linked it to you previously, about her policy shop. It's intent to try and balance the base with the general. These things don't seem to be done on the fly.

While I don't think the primary electorate has predetermined candidate preferences and these can't change, is the implication that their actual political ideals and positions are shifting dramatically during the primary based on the entry or exit of candidates?

That seems a somewhat dim view of people's abilities to formulate their own political opinions.

I believe that if Biden entered he'd attract a portion of the Democratic base more in tune with whatever presumably rightward policies he was promoting. But I don't expect young ostensibly liberal college kids would suddenly reassess feeling the Bern.

If Elizabeth Warren suddenly entered, I wouldn't expect moderate Democrats would suddenly be enamoured by her. But rather she'd compete for the same segment as Sanders is currently winning.
 

dramatis

Member
I think this is a weak argument. The primary electorate aren't some exogenous group that have predetermined preferences that don't change, and therefore have some given policy position which will always win. Instead, people's opinions change *during* the primary, as people are persuaded by candidates or get politicized by the whole process. If Sanders had never entered the primary to begin with, and Biden had launched a serious campaign instead, then the average Democratic voter would probably have more right-leaning views than under the status quo because nobody had been making the case otherwise. Do you think that Clinton would have held the same positions she currently does in this alternate Biden-not-Bernie-verse? Almost certainly not, because the policies designed to appeal to primary voters would have to be different ones when the primary voters themselves think differently. Clinton doesn't have to adapt directly to Sanders, but she *does* have to adapt to the effect he has on primary voters.
You have a pretty weak argument yourself, considering that you have no actual evidence that the primary changes the opinions of the electorate.

I have a strong basis for thinking that the Hillary camp is largely operating independently of what Bernie is doing. That basis is that it is known that Hillary's April 2015 criminal justice reform speech was concocted in November 2014, which means her positions and stances were detailed and laid out six months ahead of time. Much of the plans she's proposed were concocted in discussions with legislators. Chances are, her material has been prepared for months already. That's not to say the material isn't refined or adjusted over time. But acting like she's completely swayed by Bernie's pull is an overestimation of how strong Bernie's pull actually is.

Why is he wrong on either? I'm also at a loss to understand why Sanders is the populist candidate. I mean, populism by definition is saying what people want to hear in contrast to having a defined political ideology. That's like... the opposite of Sanders. Clinton is much closer to being a populist candidate than he is, although I don't think either are.
He's saying what a lot of young people are excited to hear. As long as he's saying what you like hearing, he's not a populist, pandering candidate in your eyes.

But from a distanced, disinterested standpoint, Bernie is a populist candidate.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
So apparently Trump heard about Carson and the whole pyramids thing and is now starting to hit him with it. The next debate should be glorious.
 

HylianTom

Banned
CTDnvYYUYAAY-FL.jpg:large
ItsHappening.gif!

To quote Christopher Walken: "Wow-ee-wow-wow-WOW!"
 
Hillary can and probably will ignore Sanders base in the primary, since his base is historically and statistically the least likely to actually show up at polls. Running to the left to placate ideologues and first time college voters is nonsensical if it compromises her appeal with moderates on the general.

As shinra says, this is precisely the track she's taking...giving moderate or noncommittal answers instead of going left. The marijuana legalization answer in the last debate was a blindingly obvious example of this.

I feel like it is possible she would have taken more noncommittal stances such as the marijuana one if Sanders had not been running. It just seems to me like he is doing his job and forcing more substance out of her than we may have seen otherwise. We've only had one debate so far and I thought it was great. It pulled in a ton of viewers. Like Trump is doing for the Republicans in someways, I think Sanders is helping in boosting the ratings and interest in the Democratic party debates and force out what issues we are talking about. Even if Hillary's stances don't change because of him, what the conversation is and what the Democrats want to run on I believe is being influenced.

Trump made the Republican cause to be about immigration, that's like all they are talking about now. Sanders I believe has made wealth and income inequality a bigger part of the discussion and interest for the party even as a whole than it may have been otherwise. Had it just been Hillary vs. a couple of Jim Webb's, I doubt nearly as many people are interested in hearing a debate with substance from the left. People are excited and interested right now rather than complacent, and has made the difference between the parties and the debates and where they stand morally even more visable than they already were.

Had it just been Hillary, I feel like its possible, however undeserved, after eight years of Obama, we'd have a lot of people in the left fall into the "both parties are the same", "all politicians lie", etc. MTV, too cool to vote, angst that screwed over Gore 15 years ago.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
She expected a leftward challenge from O'Malley initially, from memory.
There's an old Politico story, I believe I linked it to you previously, about her policy shop. It's intent to try and balance the base with the general.

I don't remember it from the top of my head, apologies. You may have done, I've been in Botswana and South Africa to help with a development NGO, so I've had precious little time to read such things until I got back recently. Do you mind linking it to me again?

While I don't think the primary electorate has predetermined candidate preferences and these can't change, is the implication that their actual political ideals and positions are shifting dramatically during the primary based on the entry or exit of candidates?

That seems a somewhat dim view of people's abilities to formulate their own opinions.

I wouldn't say it's a dim view. I think sometimes us posters inside the bubble who pay attention to politics all the time forget how others see it. When you are a single mother with three kids on a low-end job who had a poor education and maybe doesn't have the greatest literacy and doesn't even have the spare time to consume that much media anyway, you're not really exposed to and challenge with the sort of material you and I experience on a regular basis that allows us to form political opinions of the strength you and I would ordinarily have (although to quote Keynes, I like to think when the facts change, I change my mind). Something as prominent as the Democratic primary process, and the candidates in it, are, for many people, one of the sole political outlets they get exposed to; it's pretty understandable given those circumstances it can cause pretty drastic changes in opinion.

I believe that if Biden entered he'd attract a portion of the Democratic base more in tune with whatever presumably rightward policies he was promoting. But I don't expect young ostensibly liberal college kids would suddenly reassess feeling the Bern.

If Sanders had never entered, then liberal college kids would never have felt the Bern. Given there's no other candidate obviously to the left of Hillary (O'Malley is pretty disputable given his background in Baltimore), they'd probably have remained relatively low-engagement. Lots of the issues that Sanders talks about and Hillary doesn't (TPP, Keystone, Glass-Steagal) would likely never have entered the conversation and many liberal college kids wouldn't have found out much about them - just being a liberal college kid doesn't make you a politics geek. Hillary would never have had to even vaguely worry about them because they would be *her* base to begin with as the liberal candidate! Instead, she'd be pretty safe to swing more conservative to combat Biden, because it's not like leftist voters could go anywhere else.

Also, let's be slightly less condescending, right? Sanders is not just a liberal college kid candidate at this point. Quinnipac has him with 22% of the black vote. Clinton obviously has a much larger share, but that's not inconsequential and it is pretty demeaning to pigeonhole every Sanders supporter under "liberal college kid". Socialism has a long and proud history of minority involvement and whitewashing that away is pretty disrespectful.
 

Konka

Banned
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 6h6 hours ago
"@lizzym420: @amrightnow @realDonaldTrump What other candidate begins to rival Trump in his knowledge, breadth of issues, stamina?" Thanks!
 

pigeon

Banned
Why is he wrong on either? I'm also at a loss to understand why Sanders is the populist candidate. I mean, populism by definition is saying what people want to hear in contrast to having a defined political ideology. That's like... the opposite of Sanders. Clinton is much closer to being a populist candidate than he is, although I don't think either are.

I'm posting from my phone in bed. Give me a little bit of time and I can respond in more detail. Short version, the correct immigration policy for the US is maximal, because immigrants produce wealth, and I don't believe protectionist trade policies are the right solution to America's transition to a service economy, because it just attempts to delay progress. The "socialist" thing to do is to allow more wealth generation and harvest it for social programs, not create deadweight loss to protect manufacturing jobs that are inevitably doomed anyway.

Populism isn't pandering. Clinton certainly panders more than Sanders. Sanders is a populist because his campaign centers on simplifying policy issues to appeal to the mass understanding of them. Look at the difference between Sanders's response to the bank regulation and Clinton's. Clinton is a wonk, she genuinely argues that her plan will be more effective than Sanders's and gives specific reasons why (shadow banking). Sanders is a populist. His response is to refuse to debate on policy details and just attack Wall Street for regulatory capture, which is a popular stance.
 
I mean, at the very least your first statement is pretty spurious. If there was no difference between them in terms of policy-position, you wouldn't be rushing to deride him as a joke candidate, right? There's some pretty appreciable differences, ranging from the economy to justice reform to foreign policy. Now, it may be true that these differences might not make it through a Republican Congress - although I think there's a more than reasonable chance that the Democrats retake the Senate in 2016, which leaves only the House as an obstacle. Nevertheless, law-making is not the *only* important aspect of the White House, right? There's also the bully pulpit effect - you set the terms of the national conversation. Do you think Sanders and Clinton would be having the same conversation?



I mean, Sanders' favourable ratios among minorities are not significantly different to Clinton's - Quinnipac's latest was 85-12 Clinton and 57-8 Sanders among black voters, with the rest for both Unsure/No opinion, which is about 7:1 and 6.5:1 approval:disapproval respectively. Sanders main problem isn't that he alienates minorities - they don't even know who he is!

Sanders is NEARLY at joke candidate levels. He's not Webb or Chafee. However it's clear at this point that his candidacy is in no ways threat to Clinton, and the nomination is out of his reach. Hillary COULD get caught making a racist sex tape with Trump and end up not being viable, but outside of one in a million unpredictable events the nomination is hers.

Second, I'm not sure how clear I can make it that Sanders problem isn't his policies which the vast majority of democrats agree with, the problem is his approach, rhetoric and tactics which turn off moderates and black voters en masse. Read this paragraph a few times until it's clear.

What little distinction there is policy wise between Hillary and Bernie isn't relevant, since those policies can't make it through Congress. Even if he won those policies that excite the base would be watered down to oblivion or never see a vote.

Also: bully pulpit? The entire point of this discussion is that Sanders ability to use the bully pulpit sucks. He has no ability to convince anyone who isn't ALREADY on the far left spectrum of anything. Obama is far better at this and even he has struggled to move the national conversation anywhere because conservatives and many moderates are so insulated from mainstream media.

Finally, your assertion regarding black voters is ignorant to the point of being insulting. The campaign didn't start yesterday, black voters are well aware of who Bernie Sanders is- hes been getting plenty of press as Hilary's only competition. His language and rhetoric simply have no traction among that community, while the Clintons have decades of goodwill.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 6h6 hours ago
"@lizzym420: @amrightnow @realDonaldTrump What other candidate begins to rival Trump in his knowledge, breadth of issues, stamina?" Thanks!

What does stamina have to do with anything?
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
You have a pretty weak argument yourself, considering that you have no actual evidence that the primary changes the opinions of the electorate.

I mean, there's a lot of evidence for this. To pick a random example, the number of people citing inequality as a significant problem facing American society in Gallup's Daily Trackers has risen a significant amount over the last 3 months.

I have a strong basis for thinking that the Hillary camp is largely operating independently of what Bernie is doing. That basis is that it is known that Hillary's April 2015 criminal justice reform speech was concocted in November 2014, which means her positions and stances were detailed and laid out six months ahead of time. Much of the plans she's proposed were concocted in discussions with legislators. Chances are, her material has been prepared for months already. That's not to say the material isn't refined or adjusted over time. But acting like she's completely swayed by Bernie's pull is an overestimation of how strong Bernie's pull actually is.

I didn't say completely swayed. It's obvious that she's not going to literally adopt Sanders' positions word for word. However, my argument doesn't require that. Even if she only changes her policy positions a very slight amount towards him, and you prefer his policy positions, than you have reason to vote for him *even* if you prefer Clinton because electability is your main concern. After all, you can always switch back if it looks like Sanders will win (unlikely), and until then you can have a very small effect on pushing Clinton further left.

He's saying what a lot of young people are excited to hear. As long as he's saying what you like hearing, he's not a populist, pandering candidate in your eyes.

But from a distanced, disinterested standpoint, Bernie is a populist candidate.

Saying what people want to hear is not necessarily populist. Saying what people want to hear because they want to hear it is populist. Saying something because you believe in it genuinely, and having other people happen to want to hear it, is not populist. That's just called being an appealing candidate.
 
CNN finds Ben Carson's violent past completely at odds with reality after talking to his former classmates and neighbors. All of them expressed shock that Carson did those things because in their words, he was a nerdy, bookish guy who wouldnt dare cross a street without his mom, and that something as simple as a brawl (let alone a stabbing) would be all over the school grapevine...this could be the biggest campaign story of the election.

Yay investigative journalism!!
 
I mean in the absence of any challenger I could see complete complacency, but I don't think she's planned her campaign on the premise that she'd be unchallenged.
So the aim would then be to create positions that suit the needs of as many target segments as possible.
If Biden was in. She'd likely have to fight harder for the middle ground and talk about things that appeal to his voting base. If you replace Sanders with Warren or O'Malley or someone else on the left flank, she has to talk more about things in her plans that will appeal to those segments. If that's what you're getting at, sure. Her presentation on policy will shift.

But the broader platform is long in development. The goal of that platform - bold but not too bold - as noted in the story.

Regarding liberal college kids - I used it as an example as his strongest demographic and that which is most associated with him.

And she wants that vote too. Thus, plans for college affordability long in the making. Because she'll need it in the general election.

Here's the story from June.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/06/hillary-clinton-2016-wonk-warrior-118910
And some excerpts, if time constrained highlighting what's being referred to.
Advisers told me it was an elaborate, even West Wing-style policy process, with concentric circles of advisers and pollsters who are cooking up a comprehensive economic policy, some of which will be for public consumption, some of which will be employed if she’s elected. Over the past year, Clinton has quietly met with a rotating—and sharp-elbowed—cast of Democratic economic experts, pollsters, staffers and advocates to craft a just-so economic program to attack wage stagnation and economic inequality. The very explicit goal has been political: to invent a program for Clinton that captures the popular imagination—and, to no small extent, redefines a candidate with a trustworthiness problem.

“We’re talking about three- and four-hour meetings, briefing papers, weeks of back-and-forth,” says Clinton’s communications director Jennifer Palmieri, who says the candidate will unveil pieces of her agenda, one by one, in a series of events starting in July and stretching to the fall. “This is the foundational work of the election. She’s a wonk. This is stuff she loves to do.”

What’s emerging—and her staff maintains she’s made no big decisions on the stickiest subjects, such as whether to propose tax increases and Wall Street regulation—are classic Clinton thread-the-needle proposals, albeit with a slightly sharper needle, pointing unmistakably to the left.

Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz had a one-on-one meeting with Clinton last December to discuss his aggressive progressive agenda, pushing for deep tax cuts against the wealthy and pay cuts for CEOs. She already knew the subject inside out, he told me, and probed him for details on how some of his proposals could be implemented. Like most of the economists and advocates she’s met with recently, Stiglitz left satisfied he’d gotten a fair hearing, but with no concrete commitment.

.....

The goal, according to a dozen people close to the process who spoke to POLITICO, is to find the “sweet spot”—bold solutions that aren’t too bold. She has tasked her small in-house policy team led by former State Department aide Jake Sullivan with a pragmatic mission: Attack the biggest problems—higher education debt, a tax system that encourages short-term gain over long-tern investments, out-of-control CEO pay, crumbling infrastructure, the non-job-security “gig” economy, women’s pay equity—in a way that satisfies a restive left wing of the party. But do it without needlessly alienating general election voters, or potential donors.

....

Two years ago, Tanden, now the head of the Clinton-friendly Center for American Progress—who is still in frequent contact with Clinton and CAP founder John Podesta who is the campaign’s chairman—embarked on an ambitious effort to create a comprehensive Democratic blueprint for tacking these problems. The effort didn’t have Clinton’s official sanction, but she was kept in the loop and its mission statement fits Clinton’s own private assessment of the problem. Middle-income wage stagnation and growth that benefits only the wealthiest “is an economic problem that threatens to become a problem for [the] political system—and for the idea of democracy itself,” the report found.

The report, co-authored by Larry Summers, the former treasury secretary for Clinton’s husband who later emerged as a contentious leader of Obama’s initial economic team in the White House and whose mere presence in Clinton’s camp makes Warren and other liberals nervous, but he too was an enthusiastic backer of the campaign’s pragmatic progressive approach. Many of the positions that will form the core of Clinton’s platform are in it, I’m told—from phased-in minimum wage hikes pegged to local market conditions to the elimination of “carried interest” tax breaks for hedge funds to the extension of the Earned Income Tax Credit to encompass a greater number of working-class Americans.

....

For the most part, however, Clinton has courted, not confronted, the left. Her policy shop has already laid out a series of proposals geared toward energizing the party’s base (and denying the progressive high ground to Sangers and O’Malley)

.....

She has also surrounded herself with leading progressive theorists and researchers. Arguably, the most influential thinker Clinton’s orbit these days is Harvard professor and political scientist Robert Putnam, whose recent work on the lack of social mobility in underprivileged communities has captured her imagination and influenced her approach to policy prescriptions.

Clinton—who devoured his most recent book Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis, met with Putnam for several hours in May and peppered him with questions about his research, which have centered on the structure of families and the role of a parents’ educational attainment in determining the economic mobility of their children. She has also rekindled a relationship with Harvard economist Lawrence Katz, who was the chief economist at her husband’s labor department and has also studied the link between economic opportunity and mobility. Another economist Clinton is close to: CAP’s Heather Boushey, who has studied the impact of economic inequality and families.
 
I have no idea why the media is looking into Carson's violent past stories and "you want the cashier" stories.

The big problem is how dumb he is and how much he hates the LGBTQ+ community and Muslims and the poor. Fact-checking stuff from early in his life is pointless.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
CNN finds Ben Carson's violent past completely at odds with reality after talking to his former classmates and neighbors. All of them expressed shock that Carson did those things because in their words, he was a nerdy, bookish guy who wouldnt dare cross a street without his mom, and that something as simple as a brawl (let alone a stabbing) would be all over the school grapevine...this could be the biggest campaign story of the election.

Yay investigative journalism!!

But...why would he lie about stabbing a dude? Unless he really is a sociopath and just tricked everyone he knew...
 

HylianTom

Banned
Just heard Carson's radio ad. The writers for this season are amazing; this stuff would never happen in real life.

This does it: 1996, you are no longer my favorite GOP primary season.
#WheresTheOutrage?!
 
I have no idea why the media is looking into Carson's violent past stories and "you want the cashier" stories.

The big problem is how dumb he is and how much he hates the LGBTQ+ community and Muslims and the poor. Fact-checking stuff from early in his life is pointless.

Actually, painting him as crazy doesn't really seem to work. The crazy quotes have been out there and his base ignores them. They vote on feel, not substance.

Painting him as a liar and untrustworthy though is a completely different strategy. Honesty issues have a way of resonating with evangelicals in a way that facts don't.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I have no idea why the media is looking into Carson's violent past stories and "you want the cashier" stories.

The big problem is how dumb he is and how much he hates the LGBTQ+ community and Muslims and the poor. Fact-checking stuff from early in his life is pointless.

They were probably looking for more stories at the time. I mean if a guy says the shit Carson's said and I'm an editor at CNN I'm sure as hell going to make sure someone is looking to see if he seriously hurt/killed a dude.
 

noshten

Member
Assuming you're talking about me, I'll admit that it's a hunch. I'll gladly admit if/when I'm wrong.

But I'm also not going to buy into the incredibly naive idea that a century's worth of "socialism=evil" programming can be undone in one election cycle. Especially when one side has oodles of superPAC money and our guy is saying that he wants to unilaterally disarm in the big money race.

I don't see any tendency for Clinton to unite the party, lead to higher voter turnout than Obama 08/12, win over (I), or stop Democratic losing streak in the midterms. The people in this thread are pretty much proof of that, they are so vehemently against Sanders that they look for anything to latch onto, yet fail to address the big Clinton Problems.

Clinton is still the Democratic Pro-War Candidate/Patriot Act Candidate
One of the reasons she lost was because she appeared Pro War next to Obama. Right now as tensions in Syria escalate and Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq continue to be chaotic states with failed national building schemes - which Russia uses to gain international acceptance, this will become an even larger issue in the race. The fact that democrats are so quick to jump in with someone who has been behind these types of failed strategies has shown that they haven't learned anything. That people scoffed at the idea that Syria is a quagmire and said the no-fly zone position of Clinton is sensible - is frightening. Obama ran on a transformative foreign policy away from nation building, yet fell into the very same place where he was adamant he wouldn't want to go. Bush won against Gore also based on an more sensible foreign policy.
The fact that Democrats want to prop up a nominee that is calling for no fly zones over Syria is like living in a Bizarro World where Bush didn't happen and Obama didn't get the nom ahead of Hillary.
Once again confounding her problems with the Hawkish stance she takes on foreign policy she is also at odds with Veterans who fail to see how her pro-regime change position and lack of stance of improving VA health care
It's been proven that the Patriot act is another racist tool to target minorities. And Clinton believes that it should stay in place and it's only a problem when the wrong people are in the White House.

Obama got people to turn up because they wanted a change from nation building, war, surveillance, racial profiling - sadly all these issues he not only compromised with but failed to address in any meaningful way. There is a reason why Clinton won't have the widespread support and it's not because of her favorability ratings or appearing cold. The positions she has taken are at odds with how a lot of people view war, government and corporate surveillance, and legislation that could easily be abused by the wrong person in the White House.
 

RDreamer

Member
CNN finds Ben Carson's violent past completely at odds with reality after talking to his former classmates and neighbors. All of them expressed shock that Carson did those things because in their words, he was a nerdy, bookish guy who wouldnt dare cross a street without his mom, and that something as simple as a brawl (let alone a stabbing) would be all over the school grapevine...this could be the biggest campaign story of the election.

Yay investigative journalism!!

That is the weirdest goddamned thing to lie about.

Then again, doubling down on "the pyramids were used for grain" is fucking weird too.
 
Actually, painting him as crazy doesn't really seem to work. The crazy quotes have been out there and his base ignores them. They vote on feel, not substance.

Painting him as a liar and untrustworthy though is a completely different strategy. Honesty issues have a way of resonating with evangelicals in a way that facts don't.

His Politifact file has zero true or mostly true statements!

http://www.politifact.com/personalities/ben-carson/

I don't know if we're going to be breaking new ground if we find out that Ben Carson is a liar since it's already clear that he's a massive liar.
 
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