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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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Tarkus

Member
"Dear Bern, I wrote you but you still ain't calling
I left my cell, my pager, and my home phone at the bottom...
...Anyways, I hope you get this man, hit me back,
just to chat, truly yours, your biggest fan
This is Dan"
 

Cerium

Member
"Dear Bern, I wrote you but you still ain't calling
I left my cell, my pager, and my home phone at the bottom...
...Anyways, I hope you get this man, hit me back,
just to chat, truly yours, your biggest fan
This is Dan"
stephen-colbert-jon-stewart-sipping-tea-wow-bravo-meme_39.gif
 
Daniel B·;185578373 said:
Interesting. I see in 2000 and 2004, voter turnout for the Democratic primaries was 7%. In 2008, it swelled to 23%, of registered voters.

But, for the last time, it isn't 2008? No, you're right, Bernie is going to do better than Obama. No? How about Bernie doubling the record for a primary rally?

Not only no, but hell no
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Daniel B·;185578373 said:
Interesting. I see in 2000 and 2004, voter turnout for the Democratic primaries was 7%. In 2008, it swelled to 23%, of registered voters.

But, for the last time, it isn't 2008? No, you're right, Bernie is going to do better than Obama. No? How about Bernie doubling the record for a primary rally?

A lot of Bernie's support is coming from independents, they can't vote in most primaries. Unless he's got the most legendary ground game of all time, beyond what Obama had, the size of the rally doesn't matter. Remember that Ron Paul also had thousands showing up for rallies and it meant diddly squat, he still never stood a chance.

Not only no, but hell no

Also this. Obama had a lot more going for him than Bernie ever will.
 
Daniel B·;185578373 said:
Interesting. I see in 2000 and 2004, voter turnout for the Democratic primaries was 7%. In 2008, it swelled to 23%, of registered voters.

But, for the last time, it isn't 2008? No, you're right, Bernie is going to do better than Obama. No? How about Bernie doubling the record for a primary rally?

Maybe 2000 and 2004 were lower in turnout because, oh I don't know, the primary was over by March, whereas 2008 went into June.

You're going to argue that the person who got the second most votes every in any primary is going to crater?!

At first the polls were right, but Sander's numbers were low because not enough people knew who he was. Once they know him, they'll lvoe him. When that didn't happen, the polls were wrong. They weren't calling the right people...even though the polls show people do have a favorable view of Bernie. Now, the polls don't matter at all because Bernie's going to double Obama and Hillary's historic 2008 turnout because the 18-30 year olds are going to just run to them so fast their Starbucks won't hvae time to get cold.

You cannot build an entire campaign around the 18-29 year olds. It does not work. Obama used the youth vote to build his coalition. He had liberals. He had African Americans. He had a large portion of actual Democrats. He had party endorsements. If you think you can hang your entire electoral prospects on this group, please ask to speak with Former President George McGovern.

2008 was never going to be a competitive election, regardless of who we put up. 2008 was a repudiation of the Bush years. Overall, Obama remains relatively popular with everyone, especially with Democrats.
 
"Dear Bern, I wrote you but you still ain't calling
I left my cell, my pager, and my home phone at the bottom...
...Anyways, I hope you get this man, hit me back,
just to chat, truly yours, your biggest fan
This is Dan"

It's funny you should say that as, although I haven't had the pleasure, my top-secret suggestion, on how we could get Bernie's message out to a high percentage of the electorate, was "passed on". Sorry, I can't reveal any details, as it could very well be the deciding factor in the primaries! I'm only half joking (I did send in a killa idea), but I concede, it may also be entirely impractical ;).
 

leroidys

Member
I thought all the candidates looked "weak" on the questions around ISIS, which worries me. They're going to have to come up with better soundbytes than that if they don't want to get demagogued to death by the Republicans in the general.
 
Hillary "won" but not really. She couldnt give a definitive blow to Sanders, who may rise a little closer to the middle 30s-40s after this debate since, unlike the first debate, he didnt embarrassed himself . He actually embarrassed Clinton in Wall Street issues and that will give her a little bite.

Bernie still looks shaky and unfocused (outside of economy) as fuck. Like, he cant even believe he is there. Clinton remains morally ambiguous but full of the confidence and "collectedness" that some may call presidential.

I still dont see a bright future for Clinton if she goes agaisnt a GOP populist.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Hillary "won" but not really. She couldnt give a definitive blow to Sanders, who may rise a little closer to the middle 30s-40s after this debate since, unlike the first debate, he didnt embarrassed himself . He actually embarrassed Clinton in Wall Street issues and that will give her a little bite.

Bernie still looks shaky and unfocused (outside of economy) as fuck. Like, he cant even believe he is there. Clinton remains morally ambiguous but full of the confidence and "collectedness" that some may call presidential.

I honestly don't think this debate is going to move the needle at all. No one looked good enough to steal support from anyone else and that's where we are right now unless someone drops in the next few days.

I still dont see a bright future for Clinton if she goes agaisnt a GOP populist.

The GOP's populism is way too racist to work in a general electorate.
 
I thought all the candidates looked "weak" on the questions around ISIS, which worries me. They're going to have to come up with better soundbytes than that if they don't want to get demagogued to death by the Republicans in the general.

The whole segment was a disaster. Between the moderator's insistence on taking a stance on virtually non-consequential terminology to Sanders saying global warming was the biggest national security threat. Then there was O'Malley jumping on the "it's not an American fight" comment in the most disingenuous way possible.

GOP populism works pretty well when you go around talking about bombing the shit out of ISIS and playing soundbite ads of Sanders saying it's really about global warming. Once again, people forget it's a bunch of average swing voters in places like Ohio that determine these elections, not the 45% that will vote for either party no matter what.

Their only hope is that the Obama admin to make progress against IS in Iraq and Syria in the coming year so they can point to that. Taking Sinjar could end up being pivotal to the Kurds.
 
This act is getting pretty tiresome.

Daniel B·;185580155 said:
It's funny you should say that as, although I haven't had the pleasure, my top-secret suggestion, on how we could get Bernie's message out to a high percentage of the electorate, was "passed on". Sorry, I can't reveal any details, as it could very well be the deciding factor in the primaries! I'm only half joking (I did send in a killa idea), but I concede, it may also be entirely impractical ;).

There's a post in the Confessember thread of someone admitting they aren't really as gung-ho for Bernie as they claim in PoliGAF but are stuck playing the character. I think you just overplayed your hand.
 
I honestly don't think this debate is going to move the needle at all. No one looked good enough to steal support from anyone else and that's where we are right now unless someone drops in the next few days.



The GOP's populism is way too racist to work in a general electorate.

nah dude, to directly quote Melkr_:

Bernie won. He will jump from 33% to 35% in the polls. #winning #poorhillary

:p
 
Maybe 2000 and 2004 were lower in turnout because, oh I don't know, the primary was over by March, whereas 2008 went into June.

You're going to argue that the person who got the second most votes every in any primary is going to crater?!

At first the polls were right, but Sander's numbers were low because not enough people knew who he was. Once they know him, they'll lvoe him. When that didn't happen, the polls were wrong. They weren't calling the right people...even though the polls show people do have a favorable view of Bernie. Now, the polls don't matter at all because Bernie's going to double Obama and Hillary's historic 2008 turnout because the 18-30 year olds are going to just run to them so fast their Starbucks won't hvae time to get cold.

You cannot build an entire campaign around the 18-29 year olds. It does not work. Obama used the youth vote to build his coalition. He had liberals. He had African Americans. He had a large portion of actual Democrats. He had party endorsements. If you think you can hang your entire electoral prospects on this group, please ask to speak with Former President George McGovern.

2008 was never going to be a competitive election, regardless of who we put up. 2008 was a repudiation of the Bush years. Overall, Obama remains relatively popular with everyone, especially with Democrats.

Ooh, some typos slipping in there; I must be hitting the mark.

Sorry, your premise, that predominatly the 18-30 demographic is supporting Bernie, is false. Everywhere I look, whether it was the debate party last night, or in the YouTube videos I see, all age groups are #FeelingTheBern.

Also 2016, will be a repudiation of the entire political establishment, of which Obama and Clinton are very much a part.

You know Obama's Presidency will probably be remembered as the greatest mistake ever made by the establishment, because he promised so much, and he gave us the exact opposite, with the TPP and the infringement of our constitutional rigits.
 
nah dude, to directly quote Melkr_:



:p

lol that was going to be my response to B-Dubs, actually. I think we could see a little uptick for Bernie, but insignificant in the great scheme of things. But on a second thought, I may agree with B´s reading: the status quo remained unchallenged (maybe not for O Malley, he may even draw a few points from Bernie). Ugh, the democratic race is getting so boring.
 
Daniel B·;185582963 said:
Ooh, some typos slipping in there; I must be hitting the mark.

Sorry, your premise, that predominatly the 18-30 demographic is supporting Bernie, is false. Everywhere I look, whether it was the debate party last night, or in the YouTube videos I see, all age groups are #FeelingTheBern.

Also 2016, will be a repudiation of the entire political establishment, of which Obama and Clinton are very much a part.

You know Obama's Presidency will probably be remembered as the greatest mistake ever made by the establishment, because he promised so much, and he gave us the exact opposite, with the TPP and the infringement of our constitutional rigits.

OK, so you're a joke "character", gotcha
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
lol that was going to be my response to B-Dubs, actually. I think we could see a little uptick for Bernie, but insignificant in the great scheme of things. But on a second thought, I may agree with B´s reading: the status quo remained (maybe not for O Malley, he may even draw a few points from Bernie). Ugh, the democratic race is getting so boring.

The field just isn't big enough, and Hillary's too much of an incumbent, for this to be all that interesting. Unless she really does something dumb, like really really dumb, we're just going to have to live with a fairly simple process this time around. At least the GOP primary is an entertaining mess of a thing.

I honestly wish it was more interesting and competitive, but we can't always get what we want.
 
There's a post in the Confessember thread of someone admitting they aren't really as gung-ho for Bernie as they claim in PoliGAF but are stuck playing the character. I think you just overplayed your hand.

That ain't me, chief.

Sorry to disappoint, but like Bernie, I'm 100% the genuine article, flaws and all. Need proof? As I stated previously, I think Bernie should shelve his proposal to increase the top rate of tax, soon, and if that means scaling back some of his plans, so be it.
 
Daniel B·;185582963 said:
Ooh, some typos slipping in there; I must be hitting the mark.

Sorry, your premise, that predominatly the 18-30 demographic is supporting Bernie, is false. Everywhere I look, whether it was the debate party last night, or in the YouTube videos I see, all age groups are #FeelingTheBern.

Also 2016, will be a repudiation of the entire political establishment, of which Obama and Clinton are very much a part.

You know Obama's Presidency will probably be remembered as the greatest mistake ever made by the establishment, because he promised so much, and he gave us the exact opposite, with the TPP and the infringement of our constitutional rigits.

I sincerely apologize for any typos that assaulted your eyes. As I mentioned yesterday, I'm sick and perhaps I didn't proof read as well as I should.

But, it's clear what your intentions are, and actual, logical discourse isn't one of them. :)
 

watershed

Banned
Hillary definitely maintained her front runner status last night. O'Malley did a good job making his "new thinking" pitch but he is a little unrefined and it showed. I mean unrefined not in a "I'm authentic and don't use talking points" way but in a "I can't transition from one talking point to another" kind of way.

Bernie's 2 best moments were when he hammered Hillary on her Wall Street donations and didn't let up, and when he talked about compromising after his first VA legislation failed. I don't know why he didn't find a way to give that answer earlier as it shows he is not a pure idealist and can compromise and work with republicans. He should have hit that point way sooner in the debate.

Hillary was solid but really muddled her Wall Street stuff, especially that embarrassing tie-in to women and 9/11. Awful answer for such an obvious question too.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Conservative pundits gonna idiot. Just saw a post on my Facebook with a collection of tweets essentially telling students ar Mizzou and BLM folks to get over themselves and be glad they aren't in Paris.
 
I sincerely apologize for any typos that assaulted your eyes. As I mentioned yesterday, I'm sick and perhaps I didn't proof read as well as I should.

But, it's clear what your intentions are, and actual, logical discourse isn't one of them. :)

If I had known you were sick, I would of course not made that light hearted dig (hopefully, nothing too serious?). I just remember reading that your Mom was in hospital, and I pass on my unreserved best wishes :).
 
Daniel B·;185585861 said:
If I had known you were sick, I would of course not made that light hearted dig (hopefully, nothing too serious?). I just remember reading that your Mom was in hospital, and I pass on my unreserved best wishes :).

Naw. No worries. I'm all good. Just a nasty flu bug. I'm somewhere between "I'm actually dying" and "I wish I was dead." She's doing well too, thank you. :) Her slightly medicated rants on the debate last night were quite fun for me, though.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
#BELieve

http://theadvocate.com/news/13990507-123/early-voting-up-16-percent

As the week-long early voting period drew to a close, analysts thumbing through the numbers Sunday morning say the increased interest in the race suggests an advantage for John Bel Edwards, the Democratic candidate for governor in Saturday’s election.

Sixteen percent more registered voters participated in early voting than did in the October primary. Election officials reported reported 257,021 of Louisiana’s 2.89 million voters went to the polls by the time early voting ended late Saturday.

Edwards faces Republican David Vitter in what has been a year-long, often contentious, battle for governor.

“If we dare make any assumptions from the early voting numbers, it would be that this trend in the numbers is more favorable to the Democratic candidate, John Bel Edwards,” said Ed Chervenak, director at the University of New Orleans Survey Research Center. “The fact that African-Americans and registered Democrats have boosted their numbers to a greater extent than whites and registered Republicans benefits Edwards.”

Baton Rouge political analyst John Couvillon also noted a Democratic tilt in the early voting.

In calculating the early voting totals with other variables, such as what has happened in past elections, Couvillon estimated about 44 percent of the state’s registered voters should participate in the election that will select the state’s next chief executive. That amount will about 5 percent higher than the Oct. 24 primary.

Analysts said the ballots indicate higher participation among voters registered in the Democratic Party, particularly among African-Americans, as well as heavier voting in larger, more urbanized parishes.

Couvillon also noted “a Democratic tilt” in early voting.

The racial composition of the early voters was 68-to-30 percent white-black while in the primary it as 71-27 percent, he said. In addition, the partisan makeup was 52-35 Democrat-Republican compared to 50-36 percent in the primary, he said.

East Baton Rouge Parish topped the state in early voting with 25,033 voters, which approaches 10 percent of its registered voters. St. Tammany Parish followed with 19,609, then Orleans with 19,321, and Jefferson parishes with 16,508 voters, or 6 percent of all those registered casting ballots early.

Early voting increased in 35 parishes and decreased in 29 parishes from the primary to the general election, Couvillon said. The parishes with the greatest increase in turnout were largely urban, he said.

“If we look at the primary vote of the parishes that saw increases and decreases in their turnout, the parishes that saw an increase ... voted 41-23 for Edwards over Vitter, while the parishes that saw a decrease ... voted 35-22 percent for Edwards over Vitter,” Couvillon said. “Edwards gets a mild benefit from the individual parishes where the increases in early voting have occurred.”

While early voting was up statewide, Chervenak said there were variations across regions in the intensity.

The New Orleans metro area had the largest increase — 27 percent — followed by 19 percent more voters in the Florida-River parishes casting ballots early, he said. Acadiana experienced an 11 percent increase but north Louisiana, only 5 percent.

“While the Metro New Orleans area has seen the largest increase in early voting for the runoff, that region contains both the most Democratic parish in the state (Orleans) as well as the most Republican parish in the state (St. Tammany). The Florida-River Parishes is where Edwards’ home base is located so we can assume that an increase in early voting there is beneficial to his campaign,” Chervenak said.

Couvillon said between the primary and runoff early voting Caddo increased 63 percent, Orleans 51 percent, Calcasieu 41 percent, St. Tammany and Bossier each 37 percent.

Check back later with The Advocate for more details.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
That Democratic OT thread is making my head hurt. Foffy's philosophical style of writing is hard to understand sometimes. Too much doom and gloom in it.
 

Makai

Member
That Democratic OT thread is making my head hurt. Foffy's philosophical style of writing is hard to understand sometimes. Too much doom and gloom in it.
I know him from every automation-related thread. He strongly believes that tens of millions of people will become technologically unemployed by 2025. His policy prescription for this scenario is basic income. It makes sense that he's a Bernie supporter if he believes this is the future we are about to embark on. I actually agree with him, but I think his timeline is way too optimistic. There's no signs of technological unemployment and I'm starting to think it won't happen in my lifetime.

One underreported fact about the near future is that Moore's Law is slowing down and will stop around 2020. Until Intel figures out what to do next, progress will have to come from programmers.
 
I know him from every automation-related thread. He strongly believes that tens of millions of people will become technologically unemployed by 2025. His policy prescription for this scenario is basic income. It makes sense that he's a Bernie supporter if he believes this is the future we are about to embark on. I actually agree with him, but I think his timeline is way too optimistic. There's no signs of technological unemployment and I'm starting to think it won't happen in my lifetime.

One underreported fact about the near future is that Moore's Law is slowing down and will stop around 2020. Until Intel figures out what to do next, progress will have to come from programmers.

I believe something similar to point-cloud rendering will be the future of technology on the graphics end. Polygons are a pain in the ass. We just need to figure out a way to make point cloud rendering fully dynamic (technically you wouldn't even need textures). The biggest issue with it is the amount of data it consumes. A single game would be in the hundreds of gigabytes.
 

Cheebo

Banned
Daniel you call Obama a failure who will go down as a mistake and all of that. Do you realize this statement alone shows just how out of step you are with those who vote in the primary? Obamas approval ratings amongst primary voters are sky high. Like 90%. He is not just liked but downright beloved by the base and primary voters.

The fact you have such a polar opposite view of virtually every Dem primary voters should be a wake up call to you to realize how niche your views actually are.
 

Makai

Member
I believe something similar to point-cloud rendering will be the future of technology on the graphics end. Polygons are a pain in the ass. We just need to figure out a way to make point cloud rendering fully dynamic (technically you wouldn't even need textures). The biggest issue with it is the amount of data it consumes. A single game would be in the hundreds of gigabytes.
I mean, yeah - there's plenty of room for improvement on the software end. But we're never getting to an automated economy with software improvements alone. I think the big trend going forward will be functional programming because it will allow us to trivially parallelize code, but there's a limit to how much gains we get from parallelization, too. We might be looking at a boring future.
 

kess

Member
I know him from every automation-related thread. He strongly believes that tens of millions of people will become technologically unemployed by 2025. His policy prescription for this scenario is basic income. It makes sense that he's a Bernie supporter if he believes this is the future we are about to embark on. I actually agree with him, but I think his timeline is way too optimistic. There's no signs of technological unemployment and I'm starting to think it won't happen in my lifetime.

His eyes must have bugged out last debate when Rubio shut down the idea of a higher minimum wage as costing more than the upkeep of machines.
 
Materials sciences is the next big thing, IMO. In automation and... pretty much everything else. What I plan to pick up a Masters in at some point.
 

User 406

Banned
If there us one things Conservative talking heads know how to do is making sure people stay afraid of black and brown people.

And that's really what the whole insistence on tying Islam to terrorism is about. It's another dogwhistle. It's why Ted Cruz is saying that drone strikes that don't kill innocent civilians aren't enough. As far as they're concerned, there are no innocents in the Middle East*. Just like there are no angels in the ghetto.

*Except Israel, obviously.
 

Wilsongt

Member
And that's really what the whole insistence on tying Islam to terrorism is about. It's another dogwhistle. It's why Ted Cruz is saying that drone strikes that don't kill innocent civilians aren't enough. As far as they're concerned, there are no innocents in the Middle East*. Just like there are no angels in the ghetto.

*Except Israel, obviously.

I am sure some of these people would restart the Crusades if given the chance.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
I know him from every automation-related thread. He strongly believes that tens of millions of people will become technologically unemployed by 2025. His policy prescription for this scenario is basic income. It makes sense that he's a Bernie supporter if he believes this is the future we are about to embark on. I actually agree with him, but I think his timeline is way too optimistic. There's no signs of technological unemployment and I'm starting to think it won't happen in my lifetime.

One underreported fact about the near future is that Moore's Law is slowing down and will stop around 2020. Until Intel figures out what to do next, progress will have to come from programmers.

I certainly agree with his plights but his failure to see the positive in anything he is passionate about like the economy or healthcare bugs me. All or nothing approaches won't get us anywhere.

Projects like the ACA and Hillary's education answer are literally not that, and this is why even in their actual or potential success, they're still failures. They handle some results of the problems of their frameworks, but never the methods, reasoning, or designs that produce them. Do either projects even come close to accomplishing what the developed world that America is somehow a part of? Absolutely not. If they're stopgaps, that's one thing, and I've brought up the ACA specifically because Hillary has turned her back on the single player endgame. Granted, some of her donors benefit from the about face, and that's probably why she's done so..
 
How far automation will go, in our lifetimes, is an interesting topic.

Could it be that we end up having privately owned corporations, competing with fully automated, public consumer facing companies, where some consumers choose the private company, because it still provides jobs to fellow humans? A parallel I thought of, was the successful movement to only buy cosmetics that hadn't been tested on animals. Even in our current political environment, informed consumers can still wield considerable power, as demonstrated by their increasing demand for organic produce (you may think this particular movement is unnecessary, but it's a fact and it's only growing).

One area that is likely unstoppable, unless we once again make big investments in affordable public transport, is self driving cars. Perhaps, in the short term, they would act as serious competition for taxis, thus lowering fares, however, being able to go out and be merry, and return safely, without the need for a designated driver, would be "the future, now".
 
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