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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Hispanics dislike Jeb!, Rubio, and Cruz and fucking hate Trump.

CUBaf8yXAAAcVfa.png


Those are pretty good results for the Dems I think.
Click to expand...

I'm surprised at the Jeb! unfavorables.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...p_race_for_delegates_an_interactive_tool.html
o help make this easier to visualize and understand, we’ve created the widget below that will allow you to walk through the GOP selection process yourself. The process is fairly simple.

Beginning with Iowa in February and working through South Dakota in June, and the awarding of “RNC delegates,” you simply input the share of the vote that you think each candidate will receive. You can use the next state button to advance through the elections, and the previous state button if you feel that you’ve made a mistake. There’s a “reset” button at the bottom of the page if you want to start over.

We’ve pre-loaded the RealClearPolitics polling averages for the early states, but you’re free to alter these as you see fit. You can also use the current RCP national average or, in the later states, the inputs from the previous state as your starting point. As you go through, the program will calculate the statewide delegates that will be allocated using each state’s rules (plus a few assumptions) – you cannot alter these (except through changing the candidates’ share of the votes).
Click to expand...
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Hispanics dislike Jeb!, Rubio, and Cruz and fucking hate Trump.

CUBaf8yXAAAcVfa.png


Those are pretty good results for the Dems I think.
Click to expand...
If Trump was the nominee, would Hillary be able to break 80% with Hispanics? Because it certainly seems that way.

That would mean between African-Americans and Hispanics (the two largest minority groups) she would gain 85% of the vote. I don't even know what the GOP would have to win the white vote by to have a chance.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
If Trump was the nominee, would Hillary be able to break 80% with Hispanics? Because it certainly seems that way.

That would mean between African-Americans and Hispanics (the two largest minority groups) she would gain 85% of the vote. I don't even know what the GOP would have to win the white vote by to have a chance.
Click to expand...

Trump will get that Asian vote though by screaming about how evil China and Japan are.

And you know Trump has got Muslims on-board with his message.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Aaron Strife said:
If Trump was the nominee, would Hillary be able to break 80% with Hispanics? Because it certainly seems that way.

That would mean between African-Americans and Hispanics (the two largest minority groups) she would gain 85% of the vote. I don't even know what the GOP would have to win the white vote by to have a chance.
Click to expand...

Assuming Hillary won about 80% of all non-white voters, the GOP would need about 65% of the white vote just to make it close.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
If Trump was the nominee, would Hillary be able to break 80% with Hispanics? Because it certainly seems that way.

That would mean between African-Americans and Hispanics (the two largest minority groups) she would gain 85% of the vote. I don't even know what the GOP would have to win the white vote by to have a chance.
Click to expand...

98DF071C-31C1-42ED-A10A-019332A12679.png.jpeg


I went to the LatinoDecisions calculator ( http://www.latinodecisions.com/2016-calculator/ ) amd gave it a whirl, only changing the GOP's share of the AA & Latino votes to 90% and 80% respectively. 63.2%

And folks would do well to keep in mind the idea that the GOP probably has to finish ahead in popular vote by a bit to have an even shot at crossing the 269 threshold.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Doc Holliday said:
Bill Simmons GQ interview with Obama

http://www.gq.com/story/president-obama-bill-simmons-interview-gq-men-of-the-year

I enjoyed it :)

“It’s really aggravating not having you on Grantland,” he said, almost like I betrayed him. “I go to the site and there’s no Simmons. Come on, man, it’s not the same.”

How can you not love this guy, he read Grantland lol
Click to expand...
Love Obama's "oh, dad" persona he has going on sometimes.

Oh, Michelle’s the leader of the power rankings?

Oh, absolutely. There are clear rankings. Michelle. Malia and Sasha, they’re constantly wrestling for second place. I rank ahead of the dogs.
Click to expand...
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
RustyNails said:
Using the term "anchor babies" does that to ya. Dude's fucked.

Also, new morning consult poll conducted after the paris attacks?

Emperor King 38
Ben Carson 19
Marco Rubio 7
Ted Cruz 7
Jeb 6
Click to expand...

Sweet Jesus, he got a 10 point bump? Are you kidding me?

I mean, I totally understand why but I was hoping people were smarter than that.

If this holds then it's game over.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
RustyNails said:
Using the term "anchor babies" does that to ya. Dude's fucked.

Also, new morning consult poll conducted after the paris attacks?

Emperor King 38
Ben Carson 19
Marco Rubio 7
Ted Cruz 7
Jeb 6
Click to expand...

13% for Jeb + Rubio?!

That's damn delicious. All that good Rubio media coverage, and he gets a massive 1% edge over Jeb!.
 
C

Cerium

Member
RustyNails said:
Using the term "anchor babies" does that to ya. Dude's fucked.

Also, new morning consult poll conducted after the paris attacks?

Emperor King 38
Ben Carson 19
Marco Rubio 7
Ted Cruz 7
Jeb 6
Click to expand...

I'm trying not to get too hype about this and failing. Yessssssssss.

Carson needs to drop out and endorse Trump.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
At this point I'm about 95% sure Trump's going to win this thing.

Man I kind of can't wait for Thanksgiving because I want to see who my dad supports. He had a huge rant against Trump thinking he was a democrat plant and making republicans look bad. Without Walker in the race anymore I have no idea who he supports. I really want to know, but I don't really want the conversation around knowing. Going to be real interesting if/when Trump gets the nomination.

Him having to choose between Trump and Clinton is going to make me so fucking happy.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
RDreamer said:
At this point I'm about 95% sure Trump's going to win this thing.

Man I kind of can't wait for Thanksgiving because I want to see who my dad supports. He had a huge rant against Trump thinking he was a democrat plant and making republicans look bad. Without Walker in the race anymore I have no idea who he supports. I really want to know, but I don't really want the conversation around knowing. Going to be real interesting if/when Trump gets the nomination.

Him having to choose between Trump and Clinton is going to make me so fucking happy.
Click to expand...

Look at this guy forgetting about Rmoney.
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
HylianTom said:
13% for Jeb + Rubio?!

That's damn delicious. All that good Rubio media coverage, and he gets a massive 1% edge over Jeb!.
Click to expand...
Particularly hilarious after hearing Chuck Todd et al. proclaim that Rubio will benefit the most from the terrorist attacks, due to his reputation as the "foreign policy wonk" in the field. This is the guy who got his ass handed to him by Kerry for saying that the Obama administration was going easy on ISIS so as not to upset Iran.

I think if anything times like this make Rubio look too callow for the job. Cruz and Trump will benefit the most, for obvious reasons.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
RustyNails said:
Using the term "anchor babies" does that to ya. Dude's fucked.

Also, new morning consult poll conducted after the paris attacks?

Emperor King 38
Ben Carson 19
Marco Rubio 7
Ted Cruz 7
Jeb 6
Click to expand...

Lmao, I lost it at Emperor King. Bro, solid nicknaming skills.

This poll is really fantastic, truly something amazing, believe me. Just look at how terrible those LOSERS are doing at 7 percent. What a joke.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Mid-November. Many thought that the GOP base would get serious by now. Nope.

We're getting closer & closer to the point where the freak-out that the party establishment is going to become something that's more out in the open. Right now, they worry behind closed doors.. but another month of Trump leading will bring the fireworks out into the open. It's going to get messy.

I said a few months ago that I don't see how this ends elegantly for the party. This still looks true.

===

And if Romney jumps back in, that means another season of my husband singing songs as Mitt Romney (it's his bad habit).

This is what he was singing as Romney last week..

Well I'm Easy-E
I got bitches galore
You may have a lot of bitches
But I got much more.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
I feel like if Romney jumped in that would completely seal the deal on Trump winning. Trump is the perfect counter to Romney. He'd just call him a loser all the time and point to him literally losing the last time. America needs a winner and all that. It would be seen as desperation by the establishment and a push to get their own candidate instead of who the base wants, yet again. It would solidify Trump's support.
 
B

Bronx-Man

Banned
So......we're really getting Hillary Clinton vs Donald fucking Trump as our 2016 Presidential Election.

How big a blowout is that going to be?
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Isn't it past the deadline to get on the ballot in several states? Romney jumping in now doesn't seem like a particularly credible threat.

Republicans wouldn't back someone who lost to Obama again anyway, not in this climate.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Bronx-Man said:
So......we're really getting Hillary Clinton vs Donald fucking Trump as our 2016 Presidential Election.

How big a blowout is that going to be?
Click to expand...

Lemme put it this way, here's Trump plan for Syria: "In Syria, take a big swatch of land ... build a big beautiful safe zone"

“In Syria, take a big swatch of land, which believe me, you get for the right price, OK? You take a big swatch and you don’t destroy all of Europe,” the real estate mogul said. “What I’d like is build a safe zone, it’s here, build a big beautiful safe zone and you have whatever it is so people can live, and they’ll be happier.”

That way, Trump explained, they won’t have to learn new languages or adapt to a new climate.

“They’re gonna learn all these different languages. It’s ridiculous,” he continued. “The weather — a friend of mine lives in Minnesota. And he calls me, he says, ‘Can you imagine? It’s 130 degrees in Syria, and now they want to send some up to Minnesota, where it’s 30 degrees.’ Well, these people are gonna be very, very unhappy.”
Click to expand...

It's gonna be a blowout of legendary proportions.

Basileus777 said:
Isn't it past the deadline to get on the ballot in several states? Romney jumping in now doesn't seem like a particularly credible threat.
Click to expand...

Yea, Rmoney needs to jump in now or not at all. Every passing day makes it more impossible.
 
K

kingkitty

Member
Trump still leading makes me very happy

but there's still plenty of time for him to mess up and casually drop the n bomb during an Iowa speech. And yes, I think that would end him.

Probably...
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
KDK2015091001-table1.png


Some of the TBD's have decided since Sabato made this chart, for example, North Carolina will be on March 15th with a filing deadline of December 21st, 2015.

The Democrats also moved SC to November 16th, 2015.
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
Republican Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, a member of the House Select Committee On Benghazi, said former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton laid “a trap” for the committee by making her Oct. 22 appearance go “as long as possible.”

“As you know, some of you may have watched the marathon Hillary Clinton fiasco, and I say that because Trey Gowdy, the chairman of the committee, wanted to interview her in private, and she said, ‘No, I want to do this in public'. Now to me, that was us stepping in a trap because we should have known that she was going to go on and just stall, debate, filibuster, on these answers to make it go as long as possible, so we would look cruel".
Click to expand...
giphy.gif

“Next week we’ll be going to Germany and to Italy to do some more research, on the Benghazi,” he said. “So this thing is not over, and I promise you one thing: We are going to tell you what really happened, and all the consequences that went with it".
Click to expand...
http://www.buzzfeed.com/meganapper/...-long-so-gop-w?utm_term=.fjvR6AlZK#.pnKXVKyGA
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
I'm not entirely sure I understand the widespread pundit assertions that Hillary's daft 9-11/Wall Street comments are going to "come back to haunt her in the general election."

I mean, it's certainly not doing her any favors with the Sanders-leaning crowd in the primary race, I don't see how that comment can be used effectively by a Republican against her.

Trump, perhaps, but not really anyone else.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Yellowtail said:
giphy.gif

http://www.buzzfeed.com/meganapper/...-long-so-gop-w?utm_term=.fjvR6AlZK#.pnKXVKyGA
Click to expand...
It will never cease to surprise me how utterly stupid and tactless the GOP is.

Their arguments essentially amount to passive-aggressive hypothetical arguments people have when driving and they can't let something go, so they imagine themselves completely shutting down the opponent and feeling smug about themselves. All they do is debate these cartoon liberal dumbass versions of Obama or Clinton or whoever, then when they show up at the table they get destroyed. Luckily there's enough people in the country who feel the same way and just want to see someone stick it to those liberals, regardless of whether what they say is true. Case in point: Romney attacking Obama during the second debate for not referring to Benghazi (wow) as a terrorist act/act of terror. Who cares if he was immediately exposed by Obama and the moderator? People ate that shit up.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Re: Romney

PPP actually polled him in Iowa in September in a shrunken field:
Code: 
Donald Trump 24% .................................................
Ben Carson 17% .....................................................
Carly Fiorina 14% ...................................................
Ted Cruz 10% .........................................................
Marco Rubio 7% ...................................................
[B]Mitt Romney 7% ....................................................[/B]
Jeb Bush 6% .........................................................
Mike Huckabee 6% ...............................................
Scott Walker 4%

Of those who said:
More concerned with having the candidate
who is the most conservative on the issues
Click to expand...
Carson 22% - Trump 19% - Cruz 14% - Fiorina 11% - Huckabee 9% - Walker 7% - Rubio 6% - Jeb 6% - Romney 4%

Of those who said:
More concerned with having the candidate who has the
best chance of beating a Democrat in the general election
Click to expand...
Trump 31% - Carson 14% - Fiorina 14% - Romney 11% - Rubio 8% - Cruz 6% - Jeb 6% - Huckabee 4% - Walker 3%
 
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