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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Diablosing much?

Carson and Trump? No chance

Rubio? Yes

You're Diabolsing hard here.

Trump and Carson have no shot. At all. Hillary probably gets close to 400 EC votes if she's running against Trump.

Rubio could give her a challenge. Absolutely. But Trump or Carson? Not a fucking chance.

Saying people have a shot to beat her is NOT "Diablosing." Saying they would crush her would be, but that's not what I'm saying.

All I'm saying is that nearly everybody on this board overestimates Hillary as a candidate. She's not appealing. She's not energizing. She has been around a LONG time, which wears on people. The email thing is stupid but for some reason has traction and will be used against her throughout the entire general election. Her favorable numbers aren't great. I guess I don't see anything that makes her a surefire winner.

Again, Carson's favorable numbers (even with crucial independent voters) are through the roof--even after all of his ridiculously stupid comments. People like him. He was horrible in the last debate and his numbers are still going up. He is a legitimate threat to beat any democratic candidate because of the respect people have for him.

You guys laughed at me months ago when I said he'd be a legit choice for VP. You laughed when I said he could be the republican nominee. Look what is happening right now and tell me how I was wrong.
 
Saying people have a shot to beat her is NOT "Diablosing." Saying they would crush her would be, but that's not what I'm saying.

All I'm saying is that nearly everybody on this board overestimates Hillary as a candidate. She's not appealing. She's not energizing. She has been around a LONG time, which wears on people. The email thing is stupid but for some reason has traction and will be used against her throughout the entire general election. Her favorable numbers aren't great. I guess I don't see anything that makes her a surefire winner.

It's less about Hillary's weaknesses (of which there are many) as it is about Trump's weaknesses. He's an unbelievably poor candidate for the general election. Just incomprehensibly bad. Do you think the Republican establishment would be flipping the fuck out to this degree if he actually had a chance of winning the general election? They could handle his deviations from the party orthodoxy if he were an electable candidate. But he's not. He'll perform historically poorly with women and minorities, and as a result, he'll be utterly destroyed.
 
Even without Biden, Sanders does really good in that NBC poll. Close to 40%? I said wow. Silver and his team at 538s must feel like fools right now.

And I absolutely agree with what Pinklo said. Clinton is not the almighty savior. I don't think Joe is, either. This fetish for "moderation" that Dems have needs to go away; America is not living under Reagan anymore.
 
Even without Biden, Sanders does really good in that NBC poll. Close to 40%? I said wow. Silver and his team at 538s must feel like fools right now.

I watched Sanders speech at Liberty University and immediately after watched some Hillary Clinton speech. Turned her off after 2 minutes. After watching Bernie, she was one of the most monotone, boring, robotic speakers I've seen lately. I'm thinking he will do well in the Debates, hopefully take Iowa+NH and ride the wave .
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage

OPERATION: UNSKEW
“These polls really don't matter,” Bush said in an interview on “Fox News Sunday.” “They don't filter out the people that aren't going to vote. It's just…an obsession, because it kind of frames the debate for people for that week.”

Interesting--much like the RNC filtered out any audience members who would have voted for Trump at the last debate?

BertramCooper said:
It's less about Hillary's weaknesses (of which there are many) as it is about Trump's weaknesses. He's an unbelievably poor candidate for the general election. Just incomprehensibly bad. Do you think the Republican establishment would be flipping the fuck out to this degree if he actually had a chance of winning the general election? They could handle his deviations from the party orthodoxy if he were an electable candidate. But he's not. He'll perform historically poorly with women and minorities, and as a result, he'll be utterly destroyed.

Honestly, at this point, I don't put any stock into what any of the Republican establishment is doing because they don't have a freaking clue what their voters want right now. If they did, Trump, Carson, and Fiorina wouldn't be drawing more than 50% of their vote away from the establishment. They're out of touch. Trump actually has the ability to come back to the middle (and already is with his tax plan) to appeal to independent voters. His appeal to women and minorities is low, that's for sure. That said--is Hillary enough to energize them into voting for her? I don't think so. I don't think women like her.
 
Unless Hillary was caught on video committing some egregious crime or having an affair with Huma there's no way Trump or Carson could beat her. Let's be real. Trump is completely unelectable. He has turned off minorities and women to the point that just about anyone could beat him. Not to mention the fact that the republican national party would almost certainly refuse to support him.

Carson is insane and can't get enough through an interview or debate without saying something stupid. Come on.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Saying people have a shot to beat her is NOT "Diablosing." Saying they would crush her would be, but that's not what I'm saying.

All I'm saying is that nearly everybody on this board overestimates Hillary as a candidate. She's not appealing. She's not energizing. She has been around a LONG time, which wears on people. The email thing is stupid but for some reason has traction and will be used against her throughout the entire general election. Her favorable numbers aren't great. I guess I don't see anything that makes her a surefire winner.

Again, Carson's favorable numbers (even with crucial independent voters) are through the roof--even after all of his ridiculously stupid comments. People like him. He was horrible in the last debate and his numbers are still going up. He is a legitimate threat to beat any democratic candidate.

You guys laughed at me months ago when I said he'd be a legit choice for VP. You laughed when I said he could be the republican nominee. Look what is happening right now and tell me how I was wrong.

I've long-maintained that the election's going to be a close one, more of a 2004-style affair than a 2012 "we-in-PoliGAF-all-know-how-this-ends/screw-you-Wolf-Blitzer" laugher. Expect lots more moments of panic this time around. (I'm probably not as confident in Aaron about the electoral margin itself, but I'm in the same neighborhood as him on confidence in the end outcome.)

Now, if they go left field and actually nominate a Trump or Cruz character (which I think is definitely possible for this cycle).. I think it'll be more like 2008. But for Rubio, I tend to think there's a good chance that we'll be waiting for Mountain Time Zone states to be called.

Hillary is a tier below Obama or Bill in terms of campaigning talent, but she's extremely lucky in that the GOP doesn't really have anyone viable who's clearly in a tier above her. Trump's a dynamic speaker, but the comments on minorities/women that have endeared him to the base make him nonviable for the general.. his story is a great microcosm of the GOP's primary-general predicament.
 
Honestly, at this point, I don't put any stock into what any of the Republican establishment is doing because they don't have a freaking clue what their voters want right now. If they did, Trump, Carson, and Fiorina wouldn't be drawing more than 50% of their vote away from the establishment. They're out of touch. Trump actually has the ability to come back to the middle (and already is with his tax plan) to appeal to independent voters. His appeal to women and minorities is low, that's for sure. That said--is Hillary enough to energize them into voting for her? I don't think so. I don't think women like her.

The Republican establishment knows enough to know why they lost the last election, and they see, as plain as day, that Trump as their candidate is only going to make all of their biggest problems even worse.

Trump won't just lose the general election badly - he'll continue to prolong the party's necessary transformation into a party that can win a national election again.
 

Cheebo

Banned
People are ignoring how Rubio has been consistently on the rise in polling this last month. He is the leading "establishment" candidate now. Without question. He is perfectly positioned to be the nominee when the outsiders flame out.
 

Owzers

Member
OPERATION: UNSKEW


Interesting--much like the RNC filtered out any audience members who would have voted for Trump at the last debate?



Honestly, at this point, I don't put any stock into what any of the Republican establishment is doing because they don't have a freaking clue what their voters want right now. If they did, Trump, Carson, and Fiorina wouldn't be drawing more than 50% of their vote away from the establishment. They're out of touch. Trump actually has the ability to come back to the middle (and already is with his tax plan) to appeal to independent voters. His appeal to women and minorities is low, that's for sure. That said--is Hillary enough to energize them into voting for her? I don't think so. I don't think women like her.

I remember Walker's team saying the same thing about the polls and in their secret "Iowa actual voter's when it's snowing" polls Walker was in the lead in Iowa. Now he's out of the race.
 
People are ignoring how Rubio has been consistently on the rise in polling this last month. He is the leading "establishment" candidate now. Without question. He is perfectly positioned to be the nominee when the outsiders flame out.
We were so wrong about Walker. I agree that Rubio is my next likely candidate to win.
 

Maledict

Member
People are ignoring how Rubio has been consistently on the rise in polling this last month. He is the leading "establishment" candidate now. Without question. He is perfectly positioned to be the nominee when the outsiders flame out.

Yep, absolutely. If I could bet on him being the nominee I would, and after Kasich he's definitely the biggest threat in a general election. He's playing the game very well, not spending a fortune like Walker and will absolutely beat Bush for the establishment vote when it comes down to it.
 
People are ignoring how Rubio has been consistently on the rise in polling this last month. He is the leading "establishment" candidate now. Without question. He is perfectly positioned to be the nominee when the outsiders flame out.

I'm not ignoring that at all. At this point, I think he'll be the nominee. He can fire up the crazies, appeal to the establishment types, and is electable in the general. As soon as a few more establishment candidates drop, the money will start going to him.
 

Cheebo

Banned
We were so wrong about Walker. I agree that Rubio is my next likely candidate to win.
And unlike Walker who I felt would lose to Hillary, I think Rubio would be the odds on favorite to win in that general election. Although it wouldn't be an Obama style blow out or anything like that.
 
I really don't think anyone really needs to energize voters. All people really needs is a good reason to vote against someone. Many people will still vote for someone that is boring as long as they think something is majorly at stake. I'm sure some people hear can point out that some candidates that were considered boring, got plenty of votes. Energizing does help but I think whomever gets the nominee they should do okay. If they don't I would think a lot more factors played a role.


Also what does Rubio have over the other candidates besides superficial features like being young? I would think he would be out of his league compared to Joe and Hillary, especially when it comes to policy and experience.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Also what does Rubio have over the other candidates besides superficial features like being young? I would think he would be out of his league compared to Joe and Hillary, especially when it comes to policy and experience.

I don't get the whole "he's the GOP Obama!" thing. His speaking style isn't nearly as good as a top-tier candidate's, he doesn't have the issues on his side (no exceptions for abortion? Hillary's going to slay him on that and run-up the gender gap), there's a deep vein of distrust within the GOP base since the whole Gang of 8 affair..

I could see him being the nominee, sure, but that comparison always make me wrinkle my brow.
 

BSsBrolly

Banned
I really don't think anyone really needs to energize voters. All people really needs is a good reason to vote against someone. Many people will still vote for someone that is boring as long as they think something is majorly at stake. I'm sure some people hear can point out that some candidates that were considered boring, got plenty of votes. Energizing does help but I think whomever gets the nominee they should do okay. If they don't I would think a lot more factors played a role.


Also what does Rubio have over the other candidates besides superficial features like being young? I would think he would be out of his league compared to Joe and Hillary, especially when it comes to policy and experience.

Rubio is ignorant, his statement about how America can't combat global warming alone as a reason not to act on climate change is the perfect example. Less than a week later China announced the cap and trade agreement. I feel like there will be many more moments like this thoughout the primaries.
 

Maledict

Member
The issue of him not exciting the base doesn't exist. I don't know why people think it's an issue - it hasn't been a problem for the republican nominee since 1996. Establishment candidates have a whole range of options available to them to get the base out to vote - be it abortion and the gays, an exciting VP pick from the lunatic fringe or just a half decent debate performance.

John McCain, the most hated republican the base has, managed to get them onboard with Sarah Palin. Romney, a dull as ditchwater flip flopped who governed a blue state and said he'd be better for gay rights than Tes Kenney got the base onboard with his VP pick and the first debate. There always seems to be a point where the base realises that as much as they dislike their candidate, he's better than a democrat and they all get fired up.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
People are ignoring how Rubio has been consistently on the rise in polling this last month. He is the leading "establishment" candidate now. Without question. He is perfectly positioned to be the nominee when the outsiders flame out.

I noted during the first debate that it was clear Rubio was pretty much the only establishment guy that had a shot in the general election. I was (and still am) stunned he wasn't leading at that point. He's so, so much better of a candidate than anyone else in that group.

As for the GOP establishment, that means nothing in the general election. Every single one of their voters will vote against the democrat no matter who is the GOP candidate--Trump included.
 

FiggyCal

Banned
We were so wrong about Walker. I agree that Rubio is my next likely candidate to win.

Now that Scott Walker is gone, I think Jeb can still pull it off. I thought Walker was the only thing that was preventing his nomination since they were tied or competing for 1 and 2. But now that Walker's gone; I think all Jeb really needs to do is just stay in the race long enough for Trump to get bored (or taken down by the establishment republicans) and the rest of them to fall apart (like I expect Carson and Cruz to do). Rubio was always a good contender... So maybe it can happen.
 
The state.gov email system is also an unclassified system from memory. My gmail is "capable of transmitting classified information", the question is whether any classified information was knowingly transmitted through unsecured means. All signs point to no, and again from memory, there are a bunch of emails directing people to call her via secured lines to discuss things.

Had she used a state.gov email and gotten a boatload of FOIA requests for her emails the same process would be occurring before any of those were released, where invariable some information would likely be post-hoc classified.

I probably should have made something clear that may not have been clear in the previous post.

It is not merely that the unclassified systems are capable of transmitting classified information (hell, a flip phone could do that), it's the fact she elected such a system, in which she would inherently assume responsibility for, to facilitate her work related correspondence. In other words, that system (of which she's personally responsible for) was what her colleagues understood to be the primary means of communicating with her via email regarding work. Any number of things could have gone wrong with that, including an infiltration into that system that she would have been held personally responsible for.

If Hillary would have continued to used her government issued email address, and a breach in protocol resulted in classified material being sent to that email address, or even an infiltration, there is no assumed responsibility on Hillary's part. Yes, the investigation would play out similarly, but ultimately, the servers would belong to the government, not Hillary.

The point in the distinction of an "unclassified system capable of transmitting classified information" is that had she elected to use an unclassified system that was INCAPABLE of transmitting classified information, then there really wouldn't be a problem with her using a private server for her work-related e-mails. It's not an argument for her using such a system, but to hypothetically contrast a situation in which the use of an unclassified system for government work would probably not be problematic, with a situation in which the use of an unclassified system for government work could very well be problematic.

I'm just glad we moved past 'you said March instead of February therefore incompetence'.

Actually, I still hold this position. This is a serious matter. Getting the dates right are important when you need to account for all activity that's being investigated. Getting the dates wrong equates to partial non-compliance.

I'm not talking about it anymore because it doesn't seem like a topic of interest in this thread.

I thought this was ivysaur's position. Has he commented lately?

It's my position as well. This isn't a matter of forgetting the month when you started your job. When an investigation is being conducted by the government, you comply to the fullest extent possible. Initially, Hillary did not do this, and yes, I find it to be incompetent that she had no record of when she first opted into a system that could have the ramifications that it has now.

When she first elected to use a private server, if she did not understand the potential ramifications of doing so, she should have asked. She definitely knew that it was different than using a government issued email. Once understanding the potential ramifications, it would have been to her benefit to account for when she first decided to opt in to this system.

I don't even see how my position is controversial. I suppose if you're only looking at it from the perspective of being 1 or 2 months off, you may not see it as a big deal. But in an investigation like this, being off by 1 or 2 months WOULD be a big deal, if those months accounted for some kind of criminal activity. Just because the emails didn't turn out to be incriminating, it doesn't mean that we, or more importantly, the State Department, should have assumed that the emails wouldn't have turned out to be incriminating. Understanding this, you would see why it would be incompetent to not fully comply with the government's request.
 

Kusagari

Member
Rubio is perfectly positioned right now because while some of the far right soured on him, he's still far more preferable to them than Jeb or Kasich would be.

Once Trump, Carson and Carly flame out I wouldn't be surprised to see him easily leading.
 

FiggyCal

Banned
The issue of him not exciting the base doesn't exist. I don't know why people think it's an issue - it hasn't been a problem for the republican nominee since 1996. Establishment candidates have a whole range of options available to them to get the base out to vote - be it abortion and the gays, an exciting VP pick from the lunatic fringe or just a half decent debate performance.

John McCain, the most hated republican the base has, managed to get them onboard with Sarah Palin. Romney, a dull as ditchwater flip flopped who governed a blue state and said he'd be better for gay rights than Tes Kenney got the base onboard with his VP pick and the first debate. There always seems to be a point where the base realises that as much as they dislike their candidate, he's better than a democrat and they all get fired up.

One of my roommates works for some polling service and he was telling me how the people that hate Trump really hate him and "would never vote for him". Which I thought is a really short sighted way to look at things. At the end of the day, if Trump did manage to get the nomination -- republicans would bite the bullet and support him because he has an (R) next to his name. Like they did with Mitt Romney and John McCain.

I noted during the first debate that it was clear Rubio was pretty much the only establishment guy that had a shot in the general election. I was (and still am) stunned he wasn't leading at that point. He's so, so much better of a candidate than anyone else in that group.

As for the GOP establishment, that means nothing in the general election. Every single one of their voters will vote against the democrat no matter who is the GOP candidate--Trump included.

Better in what way? His policy stances? I'm not totally convinced that Trump and Jeb aren't actually the best worst options on the republican side.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
One of my roommates works for some polling service and he was telling me how the people that hate Trump really hate him and "would never vote for him". Which I thought is a really short sighted way to look at things. At the end of the day, if Trump did manage to get the nomination -- republicans would bite the bullet and support him because he has an (R) next to his name. Like they did with Mitt Romney and John McCain.

Exactly. I feel that when democrats don't like a candidate, they get apathetic and stay home. When republicans don't like a candidate, their hate for democrats override it and they still go out and vote for their own.
 

FiggyCal

Banned
Exactly. I feel that when democrats don't like a candidate, they get apathetic and stay home. When republicans don't like a candidate, their hate for democrats override it and they still go out and vote for their own.

I'm pretty tempted to say that isn't true. But I wouldn't know. I think the republicans feel probably more gravity in the choices they make than democrats and thus have more of a motivation to vote because of it. But I think that's too broad of a generalization to make that clear of a distinction between republicans and democrats. I mean down in Florida, Charlie Christ v Rick Scott was 47 - 48 in a mid term year. And he was a terrible candidate. And most democrats will vote Hillary despite not having a favorable opinion of her. And the polling shows it.
 

HylianTom

Banned
One of my roommates works for some polling service and he was telling me how the people that hate Trump really hate him and "would never vote for him". Which I thought is a really short sighted way to look at things. At the end of the day, if Trump did manage to get the nomination -- republicans would bite the bullet and support him because he has an (R) next to his name. Like they did with Mitt Romney and John McCain.

What would be incredibly entertaining is watching everyone in the party trying to walk-back their predictions of doom, their strident denoucements of him, their proclamations that he isn't even really a True Conservative, etc. I'm imagining Rove on TV just squirming in his chair until the race is over, waiting for Hillary to cross 270 just so that he can come on the air and say "I told you so."

For a lot of folks, this hasn't happened in their lifetimes. We'd be in strange territory.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
I feel like I understand the appeal of every single Republican candidate except for Carson. Like, what? He also talks like he was just shot with a dozen horse tranquilizers.

And unlike Walker who I felt would lose to Hillary, I think Rubio would be the odds on favorite to win in that general election. Although it wouldn't be an Obama style blow out or anything like that.

Yes, Rubio is the GOP's best shot at beating Hillary.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
I'm pretty tempted to say that isn't true. But I wouldn't know. I think the republicans feel probably more gravity in the choices they make than democrats and thus have more of a motivation to vote because of it. But I think that's too broad of a generalization to make that clear of a distinction between republicans and democrats. I mean down in Florida, Charlie Christ v Rick Scott was 47 - 48 in a mid term year. And he was a terrible candidate. And most democrats will vote Hillary despite not having a favorable opinion of her. And the polling shows it.

Exactly. I feel that when democrats don't like a candidate, they get apathetic and stay home. When republicans don't like a candidate, their hate for democrats override it and they still go out and vote for their own.

For all the fear of lack of enthusiasm in 2012, Democrats will come out for Hillary at the end of the day. It is a presidential year.

The Republican nominee being the worse alternative is enough for the Democrat to come out and vote. Obama and his team disqualified Romney as an unacceptable alternative. Hillary will do the same to Trump, Rubio, Jeb, Kasich or whoever ends up being the nominee.

Plinko if you are that worried about Democratic enthusiasm next year don't be. You are letting 2000 and 2004 get to you.
 
Just more indication that Al Gore, Biden, Kerry entering the race will be a major hurdle for Clinton rather than Sanders. I've been a proponent of Elizabeth Warren entering the race, not sure what all this talk of Biden, Gore and Kerry is - they are pretty much the same ilk as Hillary with their own baggage

So all that polling that shows Biden pulling neck and neck with Sanders despite not even being a candidate yet all goes out the door for you?

Would be cool to see him get in the race and surge past Sanders just to see what your explanation will be.
 
Rubio is ignorant, his statement about how America can't combat global warming alone as a reason not to act on climate change is the perfect example. Less than a week later China announced the cap and trade agreement. I feel like there will be many more moments like this thoughout the primaries.

I don't think Republicans care that much about climate change even if they think it is an issue. The problem like is that he have to try to balance his position by denying it partially in the general.

I think Rubio would be flip flopping a lot in the general. Another issue is that whomever is the nominee that their will be a huge anti-establishment attitude including an anti-immigration one as well. Some of the candidates including Rubio, try to tap into it, but I don't know if Rubio can pull it off.
 
I think the biggest surprise is that, no matter how much the media tries, Fiorina is still barely showing movement in polls. I have honestly never seen someone get so much adoration and positive coverage but still register such little movement.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Candidly: I am wavering. But not sure what direction I'd waver to.

My Final Four are:
- Trump
- Bush
- Rubio
- Cruz

The mood of the base has me hesitating on Bush & Rubio.

To be honest if Trump was not in the race most of Trump camp would either be in Rubio or Bush
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I think the biggest surprise is that, no matter how much the media tries, Fiorina is still barely showing movement in polls. I have honestly never seen someone get so much adoration and positive coverage but still register such little movement.

Agreed. The way they were pushing her I thought she had a huge jump. When you look at the numbers, though, it's not close.
 
Final Week. Make your final decision by friday. If you have not made a choice make it. If you have and it is not up there or I forgot about it tell me.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=178225136&postcount=553

No one from the Rubio camp have changed their predictions. A few from the Bush camp are now with Trump. No one originally from the Trump camp have switched.

I'll switch to Rubio, although I'll always know I thought it was going to be Bush for a long time.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I think the biggest surprise is that, no matter how much the media tries, Fiorina is still barely showing movement in polls. I have honestly never seen someone get so much adoration and positive coverage but still register such little movement.

She went from being stuck in the junior debate all the way to being third in the RCP aggregate and fourth in the Huffpoll aggregate. I'd say that's a pretty significant movement.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
I'll stick with Rubio as my pick, but I'm honestly not sure how it's going to happen, if it does.

Bush and Rubio win one of the first 4 contest. Bush and Rubio battle it out in FL. Loser drops out. One of them has to be willing to destroy the other. To be honest I don't know ultimately.

http://home.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/inside-jeb-bushs-campaign-headquarters-where-push-is-on-for-long-haul/2247231

Here's the rough path to the nomination envisioned by the Bush team:

The Iowa caucuses are expected to take place Feb. 1. Few analysts see Bush as a leading contender in caucuses traditionally dominated by social conservatives, but those low expectations could be helpful.

Kochel, who ran Romney's Iowa campaign, has 30 years of political experience in Iowa and knows where to find votes for the state's arcane caucus elections. Nowhere does an experienced organization matter more than in Iowa, and the Bush campaign expects his appeal to social conservatives is underestimated.

New Hampshire's primary is not yet scheduled, but national GOP leaders envisioned it for Feb. 9. Voters there are late-deciders, independent-minded and usually more moderate.

The primary can be unpredictable since voters can decide on election day which party's primary they want to vote in. Bush is now in fifth place in the state widely seen as a must-win.

South Carolina's Republican primary is expected to be Feb. 20, and so far only Bush and Rubio appear to be building formidable campaign organizations.

South Carolina has been good to the Bush family since Lee Atwater was advising George H.W. Bush to lose his striped-cloth watch band and talk up his fondness for pork rinds. The state had a track record of backing the establishment favorite — and eventual nominee — until Newt Gingrich won there in 2012.

A good deal of the long-standing Bush network is behind Jeb this time, Wynn said, but many are also standing with South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, who barely registers in most other early state polls. If Graham drops out, Bush allies say, his machine is most likely to get behind Bush.

Nevada caucuses are set for Feb. 23, and Bush is relying on the same team that helped deliver the state to Romney.

Bush today can point to no state voting in February where he clearly is likely to win. But nor can anyone point to any state Bush is writing off.

"You have to be successful in February to win the nomination," said Tim Miller, Bush's communications director. "Jeb has a lot of different paths in February. A lot of the other candidates don't."

On March 1 the primary contest drastically widens as Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia vote.

The Bush campaign sees strong prospects in Vermont and Massachusetts, thanks to TV spending in the Boston area. He has deep political ties in Texas, too, and the campaign boasts the biggest organization in Georgia.

Romney performed weakly in most of the Southern states that vote on March 1. Bush's team insists he has stronger appeal to Southern voters.

It takes about 1,200 delegates to capture the GOP nomination, and through March 1 each state will deliver delegates proportionally according to how the candidates perform. That changes March 15, when Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Missouri vote. Whoever wins Florida — home state of Bush and Rubio — wins all 99 delegates, just as whoever wins Ohio — home state of Kasich — wins all 66 delegates.

Once assumed to be a lock for Bush or Rubio, Florida no longer looks predictable. Four polls of Republican voters this month have Bush in third place, with Trump leading and either Rubio or Ben Carson in second place.

Is Bush's campaign over if he loses Florida?

"We will win Florida," Kochel responded.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
What I think will happen:

1- Trump signed the pledge to not run as a third party candidate, if he's treated appropriately.
2- Once he is kicked out, because he will be, he'll say that's unfair (and in a way it really will be, because they'll really have to force him out of the party), and that he has a duty to keep running, for America.
3- Not only does he create a third party, but he will be doing so on the premise that the establishment doesn't want him, which #2 will prove.

I expect the Republicans to be in deep shit because there's no way they'll let him run as their candidate, unless they do just to see him eventually lose so he can get out of the way, but I doubt the later would ever happen.

Current Trump is just the appetizer. He'll be a real big deal once they kick him out and he starts his own party, right now he's holding back to not have to leave by himself, hoping to get them to back him.
 
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