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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I was the first one to pick Trump and I have to admit that Rubio worries me. I'll stick with Trump for the laughs, though. I thought about jumping to Carson as a surprise but I'll hold off.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Here's Hillary Clinton's MTP appearance, scroll down to the bottom to get the full video versus the ~50 second clip at the top:

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/clinton-says-shes-been-transparent-possible-emails-n434436

A lot of the problem that I think Hillary has with this is that she's not a technical expert, and trying to explain this seems exhaustive because I don't think she quite understands the world in which she's engaging. Like at the 10:15 mark, when she starts talking about her drop in the polls, she comes across much more assured and comfortable. Everything from when she's not technical comes across much better than nitty gritty details that are nonetheless still important.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
thepotatoman said:
She went from being stuck in the junior debate all the way to being third in the RCP aggregate and fourth in the Huffpoll aggregate. I'd say that's a pretty significant movement.
Click to expand...

There's movement. But it's not proportional to just how gleaming the coverage of her has been.

Pundits were talking about how she's going to usurp Trump for first place after that debate.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
What happened to Trump?
Click to expand...

Rubio's consistent rise in the polls to be the establishment "frontrunner" with Jeb fading away as Rubio inches up and Trump poll numbers peaked. It is pretty clear Rubio is the safest pick now.


Looking at the predictions here Rubio is pulling away from the pack in the GAF straw poll picks...when things are locked down 10/2 looks like Rubio will be the overall PoliGAF pick to win:
Rubio - 18
Trump - 13
Bush - 9
Cruz - 2
Jindal - 1
Kasich - 1
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Cheebo said:
Rubio's consistent rise in the polls to be the establishment "frontrunner" and Trump poll numbers peaked. It is pretty clear Rubio is the safest pick now.


Looking at the predictions here Rubio is pulling away from the pack in the GAF straw poll picks...:
Rubio - 18
Trump - 13
Bush - 9
Cruz - 2
Jindal - 1
Kasich - 1
Click to expand...

Whoever picked Jindal should probably change it soon.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
I wonder if Bush would pull a saving face move and get out early if his donors abandon him rather than waiting to do badly in the primaries ala Walker.

Bam Bam Baklava said:
Bush and Rubio are barely apart in the polling averages. I guess people think Rubio has positive momentum left in him.
Click to expand...

Well that is exactly what is happening. Rubio has been very consistently rising in poll numbers from being in the bottom of the pack as Bush's numbers fade post-debate 2.

Rising to 10-11% from 2% in under a month is a lot better than fading from 15% to 7-8%.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
ivysaur12 said:
Here's Hillary Clinton's MTP appearance, scroll down to the bottom to get the full video versus the ~50 second clip at the top:

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/clinton-says-shes-been-transparent-possible-emails-n434436

A lot of the problem that I think Hillary has with this is that she's not a technical expert, and trying to explain this seems exhaustive because I don't think she quite understands the world in which she's engaging. Like at the 10:15 mark, when she starts talking about her drop in the polls, she comes across much more assured and comfortable. Everything from when she's not technical comes across much better than nitty gritty details that are nonetheless still important.
Click to expand...

So her explanation for the date discrepancy was, "well, I wasn't all that focused on my emails at the time".

That was a very poor answer, but probably the best answer that can be expected to explain such a discrepancy in the first place.

My thing is that if she "wasn't all that focused on it", then she shouldn't have been so confident about when she started such activities. Instead, she went out of her way to provide a reason WHY she started at the time that she said, which we now know was just a blatant lie to cover up the fact that she didn't know what the fuck she was doing when she started.

Ultimately, this discrepancy will prove to be inconsequential, other than exposing her incompetence on this matter.

As for the rest of the interview, I think she did the best she could do. However, it is very clear that she pretty much relied on her technical team to decide the logistics of this and implicitly trusted them with the consequences. I'm sure she now realizes how much of a huge mistake that was.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
Plinko if you are that worried about Democratic enthusiasm next year don't be. You are letting 2000 and 2004 get to you.
Click to expand...

Dunno, was looking at this and seems that one could just as well make the argument that the other is letting 08 get to them.

NeoXChaos said:
To be honest if Trump was not in the race most of Trump camp would either be in Rubio or Bush
Click to expand...

Eh, then Walker would quite likely still be in play.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
brainchild said:
So her explanation for the date discrepancy was, "well, I wasn't all that focused on my emails at the time".

That was a very poor answer, but probably the best answer that can be expected to explain such a discrepancy in the first place.

My thing is that if she "wasn't all that focused on it", then she shouldn't have been so confident about when she started such activities. Instead, she went out of her way to provide a reason WHY she started at the time that she said, which we now know was just a blatant lie to cover up the fact that she didn't know what the fuck she was doing when she started.

Ultimately, this discrepancy will prove to be inconsequential, other than exposing her incompetence on this matter.

As for the rest of the interview, I think she did the best she could do. However, it is very clear that she pretty much relied on her technical team to decide the logistics of this and implicitly trusted them with the consequences. I'm sure she now realizes how much of a huge mistake that was.
Click to expand...

I was on my phone, but can now post the account for the discrepancy her campaign has given:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/...closed-petreau?utm_term=.yhdmDqVV5#.lhyPAMGGn

Late last year, Hillary Clinton gave the State Department copies of her work email from her four-year tenure as secretary of state. The records begin on March 18, 2009 — a day aides had long identified as the point at which Clinton started using the personal email account she maintained on a home server in Chappaqua, N.Y.

Clinton actually began using the account, hdr22@clintonemail.com, about two months earlier than previously stated, in January 2009, an official with her campaign confirmed on Sunday. The clintonemail.com domain, the aide said, was not housed on the Clintons’ Chappaqua server until March 2009 — at which point the server began storing Clinton’s emails, starting with messages on March 18, 2009.

The federal records archived on the server — and provided by Clinton to the State Department late last year — begin on March 18, 2009, as a result, the official said.

(The campaign official did not identify the day in March that the hdr22@clintonemail.com account was transferred to the Chappaqua server. But the first email following the move, the official said, came on March 18, 2009.)

The early use of hdr22@clintonemail.com came to light on Friday, when the State Department announced it had been given copies of a previously undisclosed email chain showing that Clinton used the personal account as early as Jan. 28, 2009. The string of emails, an exchange between Clinton and David Petraeus, starts on Jan. 10, 2009, and ends on Feb. 1, 2009.

The Petraeus emails were not among those Clinton submitted to the State Department late last year. According to the campaign official, Clinton only has access to emails she sent or received after March 2009, when the hdr22@clintonemail.com account was moved to her home server.

The Petraeus emails, first reported by the Associated Press, conflict with the account given by the Clinton campaign this year about the sequence of events surrounding her email.

On Sunday, during an interview on Meet the Press, NBC News’s Chuck Todd asked Clinton to address the discrepancy. “Well, everything that we had access to was certainly out there,” Clinton told Todd. “And the reason we know about the email chain with General Petraeus is because it was on a government server.”

When pressed to comment on the fact that she’d used hdr22@clintonemail.com earlier than previously stated, Clinton said, “There was a transition period.”

The campaign official addressed the issue in more detail on Sunday, laying out a timeline of the hdr22@clintonemail.com setup during that “transition period”: In January of 2009, the clintonemail.com domain was registered; shortly thereafter, Clinton began using hdr22@clintonemail.com; and by at least March 18, 2009, the account was moved to the server the Clintons kept at their house.

From January to March 18, 2009, as she moved to the State Department, Clinton also continued to email from the AT&T Blackberry account she used in her previous job as U.S. senator. (The old account was set up as a forwarding address, before being shut down altogether, a campaign spokesman said this summer.)

In the case of both the AT&T Blackberry and hdr22@clintonemail.com accounts, aides said, Clinton no longer has access to messages she sent or received as secretary of state from January to March 18, 2009.
Click to expand...
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Now you see why this thing keeps going on. Because explaining it is impossible to people who don't understand technology at a deep level, including me. How many people know the difference between a domain and a server.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Boner going ham on the GOP.

Boehner said that plenty of Republicans are “unrealistic” about government and recalled how the Bible warns of “false prophets” as he decried Republicans “spreading noise about how much can get done.”

Dickerson asked if he considers Ted Cruz one of those false prophets. Boehner referred him back to a fundraiser he held in Colorado in August, in which it was widely reported he called Cruz a “jackass.”
Click to expand...

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/outgoing...republican-false-prophets-on-face-the-nation/
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
There's movement. But it's not proportional to just how gleaming the coverage of her has been.

Pundits were talking about how she's going to usurp Trump for first place after that debate.
Click to expand...

She didn't usurp Trump, but she certainly did bring him down and possibly caused him to lose his lead to Carson. Or at least the media hype surrounding her did that.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
ivysaur12 said:
I was on my phone, but can now post the account for the discrepancy her campaign has given:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/...closed-petreau?utm_term=.yhdmDqVV5#.lhyPAMGGn
Click to expand...

So basically, she gave the date that the domain switched to the server in her home. How the fuck did she (or her technical team) not think that use of her personal domain during this transition was not relevant to this investigation? She knew it wasn't the same as her BlackBerry email account, yet she neglected to mentioned that she used it during this transition.

Their explanation pretty much explains the incompetence, but is no justification for the actual discrepancy.

Bam Bam Baklava said:
Now you see why this thing keeps going on. Because explaining it is impossible to people who don't understand technology at a deep level, including me. How many people know the difference between a domain and a server.
Click to expand...

This is not 'technology at a deep level'. Everyone knows the difference between @yahoo.com, @gmail.com, @hotmail.com, etc. They may not know that these are called domain names, but they understand when they switch from one to another.

Regardless of how difficult the technology is to understand, if you work for the government, you need to have some kind of understanding of the potential ramifications for using the technology.

Let's not forget Hillary's actual job at the time.
 
B

Bronx-Man

Banned
Here comes a new challenger! I'm going with Rubio for the nomination, he's got the checkpoints the GOP establishment wants to fill out & I could honestly see him winning the whole damn thing.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
I don't think retromelon has any intention of changing his Jindal vote, nor does he really expect him to be the nominee

Anyway I'm sticking with Trump for now. Rubio's "rise" is still only putting him in third place at best.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
Oblivion said:
So Fiorina's STILL claiming that what she saw in the PP videos actually exists:

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/chuck-todd-to-fiorina-havent-you-exaggerated-planned-parenthood-video/

This is a new level of Republicanism. I can see why she's rising in the polls.

brainchild, if you want to focus on someone who's an actual liar, I suggest you start following this lady.
Click to expand...

Let's not go there. Hillary has lied on many occasion, so has Fiorina (albeit probably more deliberately). They both have told 'actual lies' so I really don't want to get into a pedantic debate about which one is the more sinister liar.

Anyway, Fiorina is so disingenuous that it's almost repulsive. I believe she will inevitably implode though, as impassioned lies can only get you so far.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
J

Joey Fox

Self-Actualized Member
As little as I understand his appeal, you can put me down for Ben Carson to take the nomination. He has the momentum and poll numbers vs Democrats.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Joey Fox said:
As little as I understand his appeal, you can put me down for Ben Carson to take the nomination. He has the momentum and poll numbers vs Democrats.
Click to expand...

I am so close to joining you.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
SL128 said:
I didn't realize it was so soon! Put me down 150 Monopoly Moneys for Walker, I suppose. Can't frot the Scott or something.
Click to expand...

How long have you been sleeping on political news?

EDIT:
Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics 6h6 hours ago
IMO, the Bush clan is EXTREMELY competitive -- and has no qualms about destroying the opposition to win ('88, '00, '04)

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics 6h6 hours ago
If I were Rubio, my biggest concern would be that $100M+ that Right to Rise has. Jeb's path to recovery goes thru Rubio
Click to expand...

BushGAF is counting on you.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
How long have you been sleeping on political news?

EDIT:

BushGAF is counting on you.
Click to expand...
This is part of my hesitation. Bush has all of that money and organization already. If this is his do-or-die month, we're going to see fireworks from him and his allies very soon.
 
Metaphoreus

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
ivysaur12 said:
I was on my phone, but can now post the account for the discrepancy her campaign has given:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/...closed-petreau?utm_term=.yhdmDqVV5#.lhyPAMGGn
Click to expand...

The only thing that bothers me about this is where the clintonemail.com domain was being hosted, if not on her server. Otherwise, I think her campaign's account makes sense. You were up in arms about this earlier in the thread, ivy. What do you think?

Oblivion said:
So Fiorina's STILL claiming that what she saw in the PP videos actually exists:

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/chuck-todd-to-fiorina-havent-you-exaggerated-planned-parenthood-video/

This is a new level of Republicanism. I can see why she's rising in the polls.

brainchild, if you want to focus on someone who's an actual liar, I suggest you start following this lady.
Click to expand...

This is a mistake by Fiorina. The approach she should be taking with respect to the videos is to own up to her misdescription, then provide the corrected description, as I did earlier in the thread. The approach she is taking weakens her case dramatically, since anyone can watch the video she misdescribed and see what she got wrong. The story becomes--as it already has--what she got wrong, rather than what the videos allege.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Metaphoreus said:
The only thing that bothers me about this is where the clintonemail.com domain was being hosted, if not on her server. Otherwise, I think her campaign's account makes sense. You were up in arms about this earlier in the thread, ivy. What do you think?
Click to expand...

If true, it checks out. I'm a little annoyed that it wasn't something that was previously disclosed, but that also seems to make sense for why there are emails from before March.

I also am just so sick of hearing about the email server, and as one of maybe five non-STEM focused people on GAF, I don't really have great bearings on the scandal. I've not tuned it out, but it's gotten to the point where the details involved with the matter has lost their individual significance.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Averon said:
So Boehner got sick of being the clean up man for the GOP's antics. Cannot blame him. The speakership is currently a thankless, high stress job where you're always on the verge of being ousted because you're trying to reason with crazy ideologues that just want everything to burn.
Click to expand...
Unless you're Pelosi and your caucus actually respects you

Oh wait, the current electorate won't return her to that post because they're too busy re-electing their own Republican representatives who they all believe to be the only good one.

Is there any consequence to losing the sweepstakes, like we all have to change our avatar or something? If not put me down for Jindal for the lolz. Retromelon needs the support.
 
S

SL128

Member
NeoXChaos said:
How long have you been sleeping on political news?

EDIT:

BushGAF is counting on you.
Click to expand...
No, I'm just playing 7 steps ahead of the game, with an 84 margin of error.

Alternatively, I'll conceed if you'd prefer.

latest
latest

pls print
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Unless you're Pelosi and your caucus actually respects you

Oh wait, the current electorate won't return her to that post because they're too busy re-electing their own Republican representatives who they all believe to be the only good one.

Is there any consequence to losing the sweepstakes, like we all have to change our avatar or something? If not put me down for Jindal for the lolz. Retromelon needs the support.
Click to expand...

Tell you soon.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
brainchild said:
The point in the distinction of an "unclassified system capable of transmitting classified information" is that had she elected to use an unclassified system that was INCAPABLE of transmitting classified information.
Click to expand...
I'm still not entirely sure what this is supposed to mean as, I'm not really aware of such a system existing. My gmail, Neogaf and my mouth are all systems capable of transmitting classified information, but given appropriate discretion they won't.

If you're talking about some sort of filter that will block any information marked classified in some way, I'm not aware of whether such exists at State. In the event that it did, it wouldn't stop information that was post-hoc marked classified being sent and received.

If you don't think culpability would be ascribed to her if she had these same emails on a state.gov address while she was running for President, then you give far too much credit to Republican party committees that, for instance, repeatedly asserts the Secretary of Energy, a former Professor of physics at MIT, does not know what an EMP is, and are still investigating things that never happened in Libya.
 
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