Yeah, that's a pretty good post-mortem. I agree.
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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print
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Yeah, that's a pretty good post-mortem. I agree.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
I am glad the clown car is clearing out this early. I hope it gets whittled down to Trump, Kasich, Fiorina, and Bush. That is the final 4 anyway. Let it be written.
Except Rubio consistently polls higher than Jeb now, he has had a decent boost post-Debate 2. He is tied for third place with Fiorina in recent polls.
Rubio is easily going to outlast Kasich for example.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=178225136&postcount=553
Yup. thx for reminding me.
Bush 9
Trump 14
Rubio 20
Cruz 3
Jindal 2
Carson 1
Kasich 1
2 more days and its a lock
Original/1st choice
Walker 4
Bush 12
Trump 14
Rubio 16
Cruz 2
Jindal 1
Kasich 1
Carson 1
Trump Reviews Pokemon
http://cortesdiddy.tumblr.com/post/127967346093/donald-trump-reviewing-pokemon
http://cortesdiddy.tumblr.com/post/127967346093/donald-trump-reviewing-pokemon
RustyNails
Member
I think Trumps the frontrunner and the characters like Carson and Fiorina are flavors. Including Rubio. You guys are overestimating this chump. Rubio is "one of them". He's not getting the Trump/Carson supporters, especially not after him being on record for citizenship.
Abinash117
Member
Sometimes when I hear that from a candidate that had known(or implied) financial problems with their campaign or support in general, I think they are going to drop out soon.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/rand-paul-superpac-purplepac-dark-214221
With the addition of some other issues, I don't think it is unrealistic to think he will drop out.
Agreed.
It's more most feel in the end a establishment candidate will win. Like they always do. And Rubio is the most popular of the establishment candidates.
Yes, he is one of "them". And one of them will win like always happens and he just happens to be the most popular "them" in the race.
thanks guys! its funny, cause most if not all of my family is uber right wing republican and racist, i feel like the oddball. when i was younger i always kept my mouth shut during get togethers, i still do....
The thing with Rubio is he's paper thin. Not as bad as Walker, but Rubio is all image and no substance. Ironically the only one with any substance in the race right now is Trump, he's putting out policy papers and initiatives every few weeks.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
If you want to know how the Iran deal had a lot less opposition than even the vote showed just look at this
One of its fiercest dem opponents is now defending the deal
https://democrats-foreignaffairs.ho...posing-latest-iran-bill-house-rules-committee
One of its fiercest dem opponents is now defending the deal
https://democrats-foreignaffairs.ho...posing-latest-iran-bill-house-rules-committee
PhoenixDark
Banned
I initially thought they'd move to Walker, once the fraud candidates bowed out. Now I think they'll go to Cruz. I definitely agree they won't move to Amnesty Rubio
I see him called Amnesty Rubio, Gang of 8 Rubio, Schumer's BitchBoy.. things like that. This is Trump's #1 weapon against him, easily.
Manmademan
Member
My man. Get on the Cruz train
brainchild
Banned
I agree with this. I shudder to think of what our country would be like under his presidency.
He's performing uncomfortably well in the polls right now. I'm not even sure if there's anything he could say (liberal leaning views aside) that could damage his position at this point.
Retromelon
Member
No get on the jindal boat. You're making a mistake
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Polip Fawn said:
That's what you said. Nothing you said before that negates that statement.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I got a hard time believing most American care or disagree about his comments about muslims.
Manmademan
Member
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
In my previous post, I asked him about Carson's comments about how straight people go to jail and then come out gay.
That will affect him more in a general electorate than his comments about Muslims.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
McCarthy asked how he would be different as speaker than Boehner.
It's funny that one of the few guys complimenting Boehner's job as speaker is probably going to win the seat which only became vacant because everyone hated Boehner.
Kevin McCarthy said:
It's funny that one of the few guys complimenting Boehner's job as speaker is probably going to win the seat which only became vacant because everyone hated Boehner.
Seems like there is a really strong anti-establishment sentiment this time around though, demonstrated in Trump, Carson, and Fiorina being 1st, 2nd and 3rd in aggregate polling, and Trump holding his substantial lead for longer than expected.
Looking at the numbers in a highly simplified way (referencing aggregate polling), if the anti-establishment crowd coalesces behind Trump and the establishment crowd coalesces behind Rubio as candidates drop out, then you end up with a roughly 50/50 split of support.
Will be interesting if that happens to see where supporters of Cruz end up going. If they break for Trump, which I think is a strong possibility, they that may create an unassailable lead for Trump.
The Rolling Stones comment about Fiorina was idiotic, and he couldn't double down. Maybe he realized that he's in a strong position and doesn't need to say outlandish things to get coverage anymore that are costing major votes.
One of my big reasons thus far for sticking with Trump: early wins creating the perception of momentum.
It's likely that Iowa and New Hampshire don't provide as much bounce as they did in the pre-Internet era, but they can still give little boosts. If Trump's portion of the base holds firm
(and honestly, after all the shit he's had slung at him, you'd think it'd start to happen already)
At the same time, I don't see Bush getting out. In a pure Jeb-vs-Trump situation, I'm betting that Trump wins.
In a Jeb-vs-Rubio-vs-Trump situation, I'm still betting that Trump wins, as I don't see Jeb's support entirely collapsing.
The only way I see Rubio winning, honestly, is if Jeb exits early enough. And enough of the establishment has placed early bets on Jeb to the point where they've paid his way up to a certain point in the race.
And as far as Cruz goes, it screams at me that he and Trump have a deal. The fact that they've gone to strident lengths to avoid attacking each other for this long, with so many ripe opportunities teed-up for them.. it has me convinced that they have a running mate arrangement and/or an endorsement arrangement. With this in mind, if Cruz recognizes that he's not getting out of that low-middle tier, I think he's sensible enough to drop out endorse Trump, and wait to be named his running mate.
So unless something crazy-radical happens in the next two days, I think I'm sticking with Trump. I think this is one of those years where the establishment finally can't get a candidate of its choice, and we might be able to look back and point to the early sunk investment into Jeb as where they kinda screwed themselves over.
Edit: Peter Falk mode here: just one more thing:
Jeb's folks arranged many of the primaries' and caucuses' delegate allocation rules to help him in this kind of year, thinking he'd be the frontrunner in a divided field. Many states are now winner-take-all. Trump's gotta be loving this.
Manmademan
Member
Trump's approval numbers track almost 1:1 with his media exposure. He declined when other GOP candidates (fiorina, rubio) grabbed a sizeable amount of post debate coverage (and post debate narrative, like "fiorina wins!")
edit: here's a washington post article saying the same, with helpful charts to illustrate the point. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/09/29/why-is-donald-trump-declining-in-the-polls-the-media-strike-again/
none of them are anywhere NEAR as good as trump is at sustaining the media coverage outside of debates, which is why we're seeing trump start creeping back up again. The man never lets a day go by without SOMETHING new hitting the airwaves about himself.
This is what I've assumed was going on ever since we first learned of the Trump/Cruz meeting. Cruz probably read the electorate quicker than the others and figured his best bet was to hitch his car to Trump's.
Manmademan
Member
Cruz is a shitty individual, but you can't claim he doesn't understand how the political game is played.
Yeah, in the 60 minutes interview, he declined to detail his tax plan despite revealing it a few days later. That makes sense if he's going for unending coverage.
Exactly. He's a total idiot on many many many things, but he knows how to play the game.
Trump is great at using the media to his advantage. There's an old story of a reporter who wrote a scathing story on Trump who got a thank you call from him after it was published.
Manmademan
Member
and it's not just TV, the donald is incessant with leveraging social media, radio, you name it. The dude is tireless.
What is everyone else doing post debate? One of two things- "nothing" or "reacting to what trump said."
This is why trump is going to continue to do well. He definitely has a ceiling though- if it gets down to 1 or 2 serious opponents instead of a dozen that's it for him- but no one appears to want to bow out until they're literally drowning in debt with 1% approval numbers.
That depends on where Carson and Fiorina's support goes. If he can capture a large enough chunk he'll go through.
You sure? Who do Carly and Carson's votes go to when they drop out? Trump seems like a closer fit than anybody else.
Carson, maybe not due to his base being fairly evangelical, but Trump would absolutely devour Fiorina's support.
There was a poll a month or so ago that showed Trump with twice the evangelical vote of Huckabee.
Manmademan
Member
Carly isn't lasting much longer. She's the political equivalent of a fighter with a glass jaw. Appears to do well when allowed to go on offense, but as a frontrunner? she'll get killed. Her record as an executive is all she has to run on, and she's literally "worst of all time" category here. Add to that the knives coming out about flat out lying about the PP video on stage and doubling down on it. There is no way she survives the kind of punishment trump has been taking. The next debate will not be kind to her since she'll be on defense from just about everyone looking for a bump in the polls. Her support goes straight to trump when she's out, since he's the most viable "outsider" candidate with business experience. Yeah he's an asshole with high negatives but I doubt it matters.
Carson's votes aren't going anywhere. They're staying with Carson- (though I think he'll decline somewhat back down to the 10-15% range). THAT bunch is made of evangelical ideologues that cares more about principles than actually winning. They're the same people that kept voting for huckabee in 2008 long after it was clear there was no path to the nomination. There isn't any other candidate that's really capable of going after that audience and Carson has authenticity with that crowd that no one else has. Since Carson isn't really here to become president anyway he can keep right on cruising until the nomination, then live on speaking fees and book deals for the rest of his life.
edit: by 1 or 2 serious opponents I think it'll be cruz or rubio. no one else is really positioned to get that far.
double edit: if the GOP manages to successfully draft Romney to save this shitshow it would be spectacular though.
Tarkus
Member
lol, he has a book on the Constitution conveniently coming out next week.
Manmademan
Member
This shit isn't an accident, this was Gingrich's entire game plan in 2012. String along the rubes long enough to make money on the book he was shilling. I'm dead serious, look this one up, it's amazing.
Huckabee wasn't much better, leveraging his run into book deals, speaking fees, fox news spots, etc. Unfortunately for Huckabee he's burned up every last bit of authenticity he has and no one is fooled as to why he's here this time.
Carson I think actually believes the crap he says though, which is the difference between him and his two predecessors here.
RustyNails
Member
Yep. You nailed many of the reasons why I'm also sticking with the Fair Haired Boy. Jeb has been the biggest misfire since...god knows when? I mean, it's still relatively early. Anything could change. The electorate suddenly sobers up and says it's time for children to go to bed. But with 50%+ anti-establishment vote combined with Jeb's common-core and immigration background, no right pundit will put his money on Jeb. I don't think Jeb was ready. I think he will be a potent force in 2020, however. In 2012, there was certainly anti-establishment underlining, which is why the electorate romanced every other candidate before settling for the "safe" bet. This time, they don't even want to entertain that notion. I'm seeing more of "lets blow it up" than a "lets win" sentiment.One of my big reasons thus far for sticking with Trump: early wins creating the perception of momentum.
It's likely that Iowa and New Hampshire don't provide as much bounce as they did in the pre-Internet era, but they can still give little boosts. If Trump's portion of the base holds firmand the field stays divided into those early states (also probable - thanks, Citizens!), the perception that he's racking-up wins is going to help. Even a small nudge can help him in a 50-50 situation.(and honestly, after all the shit he's had slung at him, you'd think it'd start to happen already)
At the same time, I don't see Bush getting out. In a pure Jeb-vs-Trump situation, I'm betting that Trump wins.
In a Jeb-vs-Rubio-vs-Trump situation, I'm still betting that Trump wins, as I don't see Jeb's support entirely collapsing.
The only way I see Rubio winning, honestly, is if Jeb exits early enough. And enough of the establishment has placed early bets on Jeb to the point where they've paid his way up to a certain point in the race.
And as far as Cruz goes, it screams at me that he and Trump have a deal. The fact that they've gone to strident lengths to avoid attacking each other for this long, with so many ripe opportunities teed-up for them.. it has me convinced that they have a running mate arrangement and/or an endorsement arrangement. With this in mind, if Cruz recognizes that he's not getting out of that low-middle tier, I think he's sensible enough to drop out endorse Trump, and wait to be named his running mate.
So unless something crazy-radical happens in the next two days, I think I'm sticking with Trump. I think this is one of those years where the establishment finally can't get a candidate of its choice, and we might be able to look back and point to the early sunk investment into Jeb as where they kinda screwed themselves over.
Edit: Peter Falk mode here: just one more thing:
Jeb's folks arranged many of the primaries' and caucuses' delegate allocation rules to help him in this kind of year, thinking he'd be the frontrunner in a divided field. Many states are now winner-take-all. Trump's gotta be loving this.
Marco is interesting. He is basically a younger, charismatic and more extreme Jeb. I just think 2016 screwed him over with the anti-establishment fervor.
Yup. Gingrich was peddling a documentary though, not a book. 'Ol Huckster however, gods, guns and grits. I also honestly do think this was Trump's book tour for 'art of the deal' gone way, WAYY outta hand. He simply played smart and rode the wave.
RNC Chair: Iowa and New Hampshire Aren’t “Sacred Cows” After 2016
http://www.nationaljournal.com/s/73980/rnc-chair-iowa-new-hampshire-arent-sacred-cows-after-2016
Then how does Obama launch from IA if IA is not first?
How does Bernie(any insurgent candidate for that matter) get momentum from a calendar that somehow starts with Nevada or California or Virginia or Ohio etc?
http://www.nationaljournal.com/s/73980/rnc-chair-iowa-new-hampshire-arent-sacred-cows-after-2016
Then how does Obama launch from IA if IA is not first?
How does Bernie(any insurgent candidate for that matter) get momentum from a calendar that somehow starts with Nevada or California or Virginia or Ohio etc?
Well, on the Democratic side, unless you can make serious inroads with minority voters winning in Iowa or New Hampshire has no meaning. Obama was hardly an insurgent, he was getting calls from everyone to run. Comparing him and Bernie is foolish.
Nevada would probably be the most reasonable replacement for Iowa. Demographically it's closer to the country as a whole than Iowa or Hew Hampshire have ever been and the ad time costs aren't too bad.
It's not really something Trump would do, the guy is a total egomaniac. If he wanted to improve his brand there are ways that aren't nearly as expensive or difficult. He's always been in it to win it.
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