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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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R

RustyNails

Member
Makai said:
It was always hard for me to buy the idea that Trump was trying to elevate his brand or sell something considering the damage he did to his business relationships during his run.
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Well I don't think he expected to be shot into the stratosphere with his mexicans am rapist comments.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
In a dilemma right now since I just moved to California for college. I really want to vote for Trump in the Texas primary since the California primary's useless but I also wanna vote for Kamala Harris for Senator in 2016. Should I register to vote in California or Texas?
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Is there any polling out of Texas? It's pretty much the only "big state" that votes Republican in a big way.

I wonder if Trump is appealing there more or less than he does nationally.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
Is there any polling out of Texas? It's pretty much the only "big state" that votes Republican in a big way.

I wonder if Trump is appealing there more or less than he does nationally.
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http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/po...es-Cruz-out-of-lead-in-Texas-poll-6455215.php

Gravis Marketing Texas Republican Primary poll - August 20

Trump - 24
Cruz - 16
Carson - 12
Bush - 9

Ben Carson lead a poll in Michigan and Utah but otherwise it's been a Trump clean sweep in all states over the last 2 months.

Edit: You know, Trump has basically been running a national campaign, focusing on mainly doing press interviews and social media campaigns, and yet he's still winning the states most of the other candidates are putting all their focus into.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
So we've had two polls, Michigan and North Carolina. Both showing Clinton and Biden fighting it out while our dear friend Sanders is in third. Any of his supporters worried that what I said is coming to fruition?

It's gonna be Biden/Clinton battling it out while Sanders is forgotten.
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
So we've had two polls, Michigan and North Carolina. Both showing Clinton and Biden fighting it out while our dear friend Sanders is in third. Any of his supporters worried that what I said is coming to fruition?

It's gonna be Biden/Clinton battling it out while Sanders is forgotten.
Click to expand...

Nope. Biden won't run, he's made that pretty clear. You neglected to mention that he has gained leads in a few states that they gave up on polling Biden in, and nationally has closed a 50 point gap to 7 points. I think once the Debates actually happen and people hear Sanders message and that 50-35% "N/A or Don't Know" is dwindled down to 5-10%, he will be a legitimate threat, and then the fun begins.

NYCmetsfan said:
Why don't we do a national primary and an a national elections for president
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Because we have a hard enough time getting people out to vote once a year. The buildup allows for it to be an actual race where the candidates have to compete for peoples attention/favor. If it were a national primary then it would just boil down to name recognition. I think if they did a single national primary it would basically just be the establishment/parties choosing a candidate and nobody challenging the status quo. Having multiple primaries\caucuses allows for a shifting debate and more time for candidates dirty laundry to get aired out (Edwards was doing great until...).
 
M

Makai

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
So we've had two polls, Michigan and North Carolina. Both showing Clinton and Biden fighting it out while our dear friend Sanders is in third. Any of his supporters worried that what I said is coming to fruition?

It's gonna be Biden/Clinton battling it out while Sanders is forgotten.
Click to expand...
State polling is much less reliable than national polling because of the frequency of polling.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
neurosisxeno said:
Nope. Biden won't run, he's made that pretty clear. You neglected to mention that he has gained leads in a few states that they gave up on polling Biden in, and nationally has closed a 50 point gap to 7 points. I think once the Debates actually happen and people hear Sanders message and that 50-35% "N/A or Don't Know" is dwindled down to 5-10%, he will be a legitimate threat, and then the fun begins.
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The aggregate isn't within 7 points. Stop cherry picking and ignoring the fact that it's within 7 because Biden is included in some polls, someone you say won't run so it's more like 15+ gap (did you even think this thought through or what). The only legitimate threat here is Biden, Sanders is just a sideshow.

The debate is just as likely to be a negative for him as a positive. It's just because you support him that you assume the positive outcome.

Makai said:
State polling is much less reliable than national polling because of the frequency of polling.
Click to expand...

Sanders isn't ahead of Biden by much nationally. Which is kind of shocking when you remember Biden isn't even a candidate right now. Then you factor in the fact that Biden is dominating the general election matchups and he has all the momentum.
 
M

Maledict

Member
Manmademan said:
Carly isn't lasting much longer. She's the political equivalent of a fighter with a glass jaw. Appears to do well when allowed to go on offense, but as a frontrunner? she'll get killed. Her record as an executive is all she has to run on, and she's literally "worst of all time" category here. Add to that the knives coming out about flat out lying about the PP video on stage and doubling down on it. There is no way she survives the kind of punishment trump has been taking. The next debate will not be kind to her since she'll be on defense from just about everyone looking for a bump in the polls. Her support goes straight to trump when she's out, since he's the most viable "outsider" candidate with business experience. Yeah he's an asshole with high negatives but I doubt it matters.

Carson's votes aren't going anywhere. They're staying with Carson- (though I think he'll decline somewhat back down to the 10-15% range). THAT bunch is made of evangelical ideologues that cares more about principles than actually winning. They're the same people that kept voting for huckabee in 2008 long after it was clear there was no path to the nomination. There isn't any other candidate that's really capable of going after that audience and Carson has authenticity with that crowd that no one else has. Since Carson isn't really here to become president anyway he can keep right on cruising until the nomination, then live on speaking fees and book deals for the rest of his life.

edit: by 1 or 2 serious opponents I think it'll be cruz or rubio. no one else is really positioned to get that far.
double edit: if the GOP manages to successfully draft Romney to save this shitshow it would be spectacular though.
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You think Carly is going to suffer because she lied about Planned Parenthood in the most extreme GOP primary we've ever seen? Hell, she's going to triple down on those statements and make even more outlandish claims next time - and she'll be rewarded for it.

Lying about issues like abortion, gay rights, immigration, crime - it's part of the standard playbook by now. Candidates aren't punished for it, they are rewarded.

(I agree partly with the executive comments, but that will only work IF someone other than Trump goes for her, and I worry the field is so obsessed by him they will leave Carly alone as she's his most effective opponent right now).
 
N

noshten

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
The aggregate isn't within 7 points. Stop cherry picking and ignoring the fact that it's within 7 because Biden is included in some polls, someone you say won't run so it's more like 15+ gap (did you even think this thought through or what). The only legitimate threat here is Biden, Sanders is just a sideshow.

The debate is just as likely to be a negative for him as a positive. It's just because you support him that you assume the positive outcome.

Sanders isn't ahead of Biden by much nationally. Which is kind of shocking when you remember Biden isn't even a candidate right now. Then you factor in the fact that Biden is dominating the general election matchups and he has all the momentum.
Click to expand...

Biden would just take support away from Clinton, it's not shocking he is polling well since he has had plenty of positive news coverage.

It's all about momentum, debates and early primaries. Bernie is poised to gain more coverage if he continues to build up his ground game across the board. It's still a matter of recognition for him South and coverage is key as per usual.

It's because you don't support him, you assume a negative outcome and downplay a huge lead he has already build in NH. 15% aggregate National difference is nothing while facing Clinton - she will find a way to make herself more unappealing and lose what little advantage she has. Her favorability rating is down in the dumps, and she continues to lose steam.
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
The aggregate isn't within 7 points. Stop cherry picking and ignoring the fact that it's within 7 because Biden is included in some polls, someone you say won't run so it's more like 15+ gap (did you even think this thought through or what). The only legitimate threat here is Biden, Sanders is just a sideshow.
Click to expand...

~15 without Biden, which is still a marked improvement over what he was just after his campaign kicked off. Biden would be a threat to Hillary's support, but not so much Sanders, as you said, so I consider him a non-issue really. The biggest issue for the Sanders campaign is still name recognition. You look at the Bloomberg poll from Mid-September and under favorability 35% of people didn't know how to feel about Sanders compared to 5% for Hillary and 6% for Biden.

Bam Bam Baklava said:
The debate is just as likely to be a negative for him as a positive. It's just because you support him that you assume the positive outcome.
Click to expand...

I'm focused on every poll where I see 25-50% listed as "Don't Know" near Sanders name. I think as his name gets out there, and people know what he's campaigning on, he will match Hillary's polling numbers. Yes, I'm assuming the positive outcome, but mostly because as a Liberal Democrat it's almost impossible to be excited by the prospect of a Hillary nomination. I imagine she will do an adequate job, but I've watched Conservatives beat the shit out of Liberals for the past 10+ years and I'm really starting to get tired of Democrats running as moderate Republicans. Having someone actually pushing a Liberal Agenda is probably the most interested I've been in a while.

Bam Bam Baklava said:
Sanders isn't ahead of Biden by much nationally. Which is kind of shocking when you remember Biden isn't even a candidate right now. Then you factor in the fact that Biden is dominating the general election matchups and he has all the momentum.
Click to expand...

The media is talking about him like he is though. They are really excited about the idea of him running despite him having made no efforts to do so--hasn't looked for a campaign manager, hasn't started hiring staff, hasn't started raising money.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Maledict said:
You think Carly is going to suffer because she lied about Planned Parenthood in the most extreme GOP primary we've ever seen? Hell, she's going to triple down on those statements and make even more outlandish claims next time - and she'll be rewarded for it.
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disagree. the next debate is CNBC, and "carly fiorina is lying" is gaining so much traction she is definitely going to be called out on it specifically by the moderator. I give it about 5 minutes, ten max before this happens.

At that point you're trapped into continuing to lie and spinning nonsense about video footage that clearly does not exist, or backing down and admitting that you made up shit on national television during the last debate.

Given that none of the rest of the field (sans carson, maybe- who is getting points for being likeable and shouldnt be attacking anyone) has anything to lose by calling her out on it, she's going to get hit. It's not that conservatives have any particular fondness for planned parenthood, it's that honesty and trustworthiness are valued traits in a presidential candidate- look at the hillary clinton email situation. No one gives a shit about whether classified information was leaked, it's Hillary continuing to spin the issue and coming off as "another lying politician" that's doing the damage. If you're trying to run as an outsider that's not going to work.
 
A

Azure Dream

Member
Retromelon said:
What does that mean? Throw out the electoral college?
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HU2nFFq.png
 
M

Maledict

Member
Manmademan said:
disagree. the next debate is CNBC, and "carly fiorina is lying" is gaining so much traction she is definitely going to be called out on it specifically by the moderator. I give it about 5 minutes, ten max before this happens.

At that point you're trapped into continuing to lie and spinning nonsense about video footage that clearly does not exist, or backing down and admitting that you made up shit on national television during the last debate.

Given that none of the rest of the field (sans carson, maybe- who is getting points for being likeable and shouldnt be attacking anyone) has anything to lose by calling her out on it, she's going to get hit. It's not that conservatives have any particular fondness for planned parenthood, it's that honesty and trustworthiness are valued traits in a presidential candidate- look at the hillary clinton email situation. No one gives a shit about whether classified information was leaked, it's Hillary continuing to spin the issue and coming off as "another lying politician" that's doing the damage. If you're trying to run as an outsider that's not going to work.
Click to expand...

Can you point to any circumstance in which a republican has lied about their opponent and been made to pay for it? Not being sarcastic, it's a serious question. From over her in Blighty, and having followed the last three election cycles in the states like a hawk, I honestly cannot remember a single case where lying in this way has shown to be anything other than a benefit in a republican primary.

I mean, Christ they still say Obamacare has killed the economy, that Christians are under attack and that the 'liberal media' are biased against them. Look at the congressional hearings over the last four years.

Bald faced lies about left wing ideas isn't just acceptable - primary voters seem to actually want it. The more ludicrous the lie, the higher your numbers go.

(Death panels anyone?)
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Bam Bam Baklava said:
So we've had two polls, Michigan and North Carolina. Both showing Clinton and Biden fighting it out while our dear friend Sanders is in third. Any of his supporters worried that what I said is coming to fruition?

It's gonna be Biden/Clinton battling it out while Sanders is forgotten.
Click to expand...
It already feels like Sanders has been forgotten. Even the fanboy mania over him in the OT seems to have faded.
 
M

Mario

Sidhe / PikPok
Maledict said:
Can you point to any circumstance in which a republican has lied about their opponent and been made to pay for it?
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"Please proceed, governor"

Not quite the same being the presidential debate, and Romney seemed more just blinded by the spin than actually lying, but was a great moment where he was fact checked on the spot by Candy Crowley. And of course, Republicans and Fox News were up in arms about the fact check, saying it was highly inappropriate for a debate moderator.

I'm sure it feels terrible to get away with misleading comments or outright lies 99% of the time, only to get called out in a moment that really counted.


I get what you are saying and it is very frustrating. Though it does seem like in the last year the media has had slightly more backbone with more pointed questions and interviewees being pressed on their positions. However we are still seeing very few incidents where journalists push politicians through to the point of having to deliver a straight answer.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Dueling rallies tonight in New Hampshire between Jeb and Trump!

Trump has to love having Jeb as his main foil.. such an easy contrast, and it reminds voters of the whole Outsider vs Establishment theme that works well for him.

the_piano_duel_of_the_ducks_by_snappysnape-d3c3cyq.jpg
Click to expand...
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Maledict said:
Can you point to any circumstance in which a republican has lied about their opponent and been made to pay for it? Not being sarcastic, it's a serious question. From over her in Blighty, and having followed the last three election cycles in the states like a hawk, I honestly cannot remember a single case where lying in this way has shown to be anything other than a benefit in a republican primary.

I mean, Christ they still say Obamacare has killed the economy, that Christians are under attack and that the 'liberal media' are biased against them. Look at the congressional hearings over the last four years.

Bald faced lies about left wing ideas isn't just acceptable - primary voters seem to actually want it. The more ludicrous the lie, the higher your numbers go.

(Death panels anyone?)
Click to expand...

Well not besides the Republican candidate losing 4 of the last 6 presidential elections (arguably 5 out of 6).
 
T

Teggy

Member
Chaffetz really did this? He's even more of a douchebag than I thought:

Chaffetz kicked off the hearing with a tearful opening statement, explaining that the loss of both his parents to cancer was caused, indirectly, by the fact that Planned Parenthood received federal funding. Chaffetz suggested that if the government were not to provide funding for Planned Parenthood, it could spend more on cancer research — and thus his parents’ lives could have been saved.
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https://www.yahoo.com/health/house-oversight-and-government-reform-committee-223234455.html
 
B

Bronx-Man

Banned
HylianTom said:
Dueling rallies tonight in New Hampshire between Jeb and Trump!

Trump has to love having Jeb as his main foil.. such an easy contrast, and it reminds voters of the whole Outsider vs Establishment theme that works well for him.
Click to expand...
I'd say it's more like Bugs vs Elmer Fudd.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Poodlestrike said:
If there were any justice in the world, the headlines would read Chaffetz Calls for Total Defunding of Military, Federal Government; All Funds Shifted to Cancer Research
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Not to mention he is completely wrong. The money PP gets is mostly Medicaid reimbursements. If they didn't get the money, some other health provider probably would.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
I enjoyed Chaffetz trying to paint Richards' salary as somehow being exorbitant.

Considering the scale of PP and the colossal size of its budget, I'd say her salary is pretty goddamn low, actually.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Sirpopopop said:
Fuck Gowdy.
Click to expand...

I like that he can't run for majority leader because he's too busy pursuing his true passion of investigating Benghazi.

Edit: Wait, there was more to this story than the rollercoaster ride that was yesterday? Now he's retiring? Quite the ride following that guy.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Funding through December passes Senate.

Great.. another shutdown showdown just in time for Christmas. Perfect for freshening-up GOP base anger just as primary season begins.
 
G

GPsych

Member
Maledict said:
Can you point to any circumstance in which a republican has lied about their opponent and been made to pay for it? Not being sarcastic, it's a serious question. From over her in Blighty, and having followed the last three election cycles in the states like a hawk, I honestly cannot remember a single case where lying in this way has shown to be anything other than a benefit in a republican primary.

I mean, Christ they still say Obamacare has killed the economy, that Christians are under attack and that the 'liberal media' are biased against them. Look at the congressional hearings over the last four years.

Bald faced lies about left wing ideas isn't just acceptable - primary voters seem to actually want it. The more ludicrous the lie, the higher your numbers go.

(Death panels anyone?)
Click to expand...

I was actually talking about this with my wife last night. I really wonder if there would be any real negative to saying absolute batshit crazy nonsense. "Hillary Clinton personally flew to Benghazi and helped terrorists kill Americans. She is on the payroll of multiple terrorist groups. If you vote for her, you are putting terrorists into the White House." I'm positive that there would be at least a few subsets of voters that would be all, "Yeah, truth."

I imagine it would probably chase some moderates away though.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
HylianTom said:
Funding through December passes Senate.

Great.. another shutdown showdown just in time for Christmas. Perfect for freshening-up GOP base anger just as primary season begins.
Click to expand...

So will the next showdown be better or worse without Boehner?

I'm pretty surprised they didn't pass something longer. This didn't really kick the crazy can down the road far enough to avoid bad press during election season.
 
J

Jack Remington

Banned
McCarthy boasted about how the Benghazi special committee damaged Clinton's poll numbers.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/kevin-mccarthy-grades-john-boehner-214253

I've long argued that the existence of yet another Benghazi committee that very clearly exists only to attack the Democrat 2016 presidential nominee is far more corrupt than almost anything Clinton is accused of doing. The Republicans shouldn't get a taxpayer-funded campaign arm, but Gowdy's committee gives them just that.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Fenderputty said:
So will the next showdown be better or worse without Boehner?

I'm pretty surprised they didn't pass something longer. This didn't really kick the crazy can down the road far enough to avoid bad press during election season.
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Not really sure, but I'm delighted that they didn't get themselves through the election. The potential upside for them is nothing compared to the downsides. Even if this only reinforces the party's already-deep negative image, that's fantastic.

From what I've read so far, it seems like the base doesn't have much faith that McCarthy will change anything substantially.
 
R

Retromelon

Member
The latest installment in my devoted coverage of the governor of louisiana:
Is Bobby Jindal Getting Ready To Get Out Of The Presidential Race? Don’t Bet On It
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http://thehayride.com/2015/09/is-bobby-jindal-getting-ready-to-get-out-of-the-presidential-race-dont-bet-on-it/
Jindal will have enough money to continue. Jindal won’t break any fundraising records but he’s essentially running a lean, one state operation. Jindal won’t run out of money and can make to the Iowa caucus.
Click to expand...
Jindal’s Iowa numbers, while not great, are actually trending in the right direction. Jindal seems to gain a little bit in each Iowa poll. If Huckabee, Cruz, or Carson slip, he maybe able to gain traction.
Click to expand...
we're gonna make it through october second baby
 
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