I hope that they agree on a bunch of things so that we get to watch the "there's no difference!" crowd do some more creative tapdancing about how Hillary is really GOP-lite..
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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print
- Thread starter ivysaur12
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BertramCooper
Banned
No one is going to voluntarily bring up the emails aside from the moderator.
O'Malley and Bernie will be asked about it and they both might make some pointed comments, but they're not going to tear Hillary to shreds over it and they're not going to look for opportunities to clumsily pivot to it.
O'Malley and Bernie will be asked about it and they both might make some pointed comments, but they're not going to tear Hillary to shreds over it and they're not going to look for opportunities to clumsily pivot to it.
No explanation at all? So historically strong support for Bill and Hillary Clinton from minorities for the past 25 years is just due to her front runner status in 2016?
It's a shame this will go nowhere. It's an actual scandal. Republicans used tax payer money to fund a political witch hunt and we won't hear a peep about it.
Not like they didn't do the same thing to Bill...
I think you might be wrong in the second paragraph. The way I see it, with Biden being everyone's clear second choice, Bernie's best bet is to keep it a two way race between him and Clinton. If it's a two way race all he needs to do is convince people not to vote for her, they'd go to him by default, but if Biden jumps in Bernie will have to convince voters not to go for Clinton and then not to go for Biden. It would just make his job harder, his best bet is a two man race.
And_Gignac
Member
If he was stuck with minorities I would be worried. But he isn't, he has been raising constantly to low 20s now. I'm sure he can improve once debates (if he does good) and else roll in. Once again, if there's a turn of tide after Iowa and NH, minorities will respond like any other electorate. We already saw this change with white women, who have abandoned Clinton for Sanders in significant proportions.
Abinash117
Member
Because he is a crazy looking white guy. To the people that doesn't know him( specifically minorities ) he'll be some random white dude saying some stuff. An unknown candidate is not going to get suddenly huge, big, or significant support after the dem debates.
This is what I said before unknown candidates are not going to get lots of support just from doing rallies here and there. Certain support for Hillary or even Joe is very entrenched; it would take huge effort to get rid of that.
The difference between Sanders and Hillary fundraising is the cause of there positions. Sanders HAS to rely on individuals to get any money; the thing is Sanders is the only candidate that is extremely liberal and has similar in views to many of the 18-29 year old bracket. He is also the only dem candidate that is campaigning and saying very liberal views. It not unsurprising that he has lots of individual donors if anyone thinks about.
Hillary hasn't done much of anything besides going to fundraisers; she doesn't really need to rely on grassroots organization. The other guys are not notable . Like you said Hillary is focusing on her operations which is eating up her funds I don't see how that's a bad thing. I would expect Bernie to have more cash on hand; but so far most of his focus was in IW , NH, and VT .
Yes the internet is different and is so 2016; you did not dispute that I wasn't wrong when I said that quite a few others have raised more than Obama; so not very surprising that a certain candidate like Bernie raised more, but so has other candidates. Although, comparing what Obama did years ago shouldn't really happen in most cases. Sanders is not Obama, and many candidates raised more than him too I think; it is the climate of 2015/16.
Hillary Clinton Favorable Rating
Asked of 897 registered voters
Favorable 43%
Unfavorable 55%
Not Heard Enough 1%
Undecided 1%
Bernie Sanders Favorable Rating
Asked of 897 registered voters
Favorable 36%
Unfavorable 29%
Not Heard Enough 25%
Undecided 8%
There is still at least 25% - Bernie can win/lose with momentum or more exposure.
Hillary is unable to get large crowds - that's on her not on anyone else. You betcha that her campaign would love to be able to show large rallies but the grassroots support is not there. She can pack a room with wealthy people which is what any GOP Candidate is also capable of.
Do tell me about those quite a few others that have raised more than Obama, there is one candidate that raised 2 million more this quarter than Sanders. His fundraising dwarfs all GOP Candidates
Also expand on what other campaign in history has raised as much from individual contributions.
Asked of 897 registered voters
Favorable 43%
Unfavorable 55%
Not Heard Enough 1%
Undecided 1%
Bernie Sanders Favorable Rating
Asked of 897 registered voters
Favorable 36%
Unfavorable 29%
Not Heard Enough 25%
Undecided 8%
There is still at least 25% - Bernie can win/lose with momentum or more exposure.
Hillary is unable to get large crowds - that's on her not on anyone else. You betcha that her campaign would love to be able to show large rallies but the grassroots support is not there. She can pack a room with wealthy people which is what any GOP Candidate is also capable of.
Do tell me about those quite a few others that have raised more than Obama, there is one candidate that raised 2 million more this quarter than Sanders. His fundraising dwarfs all GOP Candidates
Also expand on what other campaign in history has raised as much from individual contributions.
And_Gignac
Member
This condescending narrative towards minority voters needs to stop. Minorities can be as receptive to his message as any other voting block
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Given the polling we've had from 3 states now that show Sanders in 3rd place behind Clinton and that guy whose not even a candidate, I'm not sure where this exuberance from Sanders supporters is coming from.
At least before there was shiny new polls to wave around.
At least before there was shiny new polls to wave around.
eBay Huckster
Member
now show us their favorable ratings among Democrats, because I personally guarantee that most of those 33% are Republicans or "Independents" who will switch to "unfavorable" the second Sanders actually gets the right-wing noise machine going after him
You assume that will turn into votes, if that's how it worked Joe Biden would be polling at like 70%.
and may not ever be a candidate.
Given the polling from 2 States where the Bernie campaign has focus most of it's efforts things could turn - especially with more money invested in the infrastructure needed to make a similar shift in other states. Bernie's campaigns main challenge is making himself competitive in bigger states since he could have all the ground game in the World but if there isn't momentum going for him he will falter.
Also I've not assumed anything I've said he could potentially win/lose 25% support of people who are still undecided on him.
Poodlestrike
Banned
Abinash117
Member
Coming from a Bernie Sanders supporter that's funny. I'm Black( and I am not saying just because I am I have the authority and speak for other Black people) and I'm not being condescending when I talking why an electorate that supported a group of people for a long time , that group of people that has some form of influence in that community, a group of people are well known, has a lot of money, have a relationship with Obama, and the group of people is saying liberal things too is going to support a candidate that is largely unknown. Bernie has none or very little of the allure that Obama has. Since because I'm Black I care for more to a candidate that has a likely chance of winning because if the dems lose I'm fucked plus the fact of my own persona; there's little reason for me to support him.
What is condescending is a bunch of white liberal college kids thinking just because of some dude marched with MLK and talking about racial issues concerning minorities we should start all supporting him like we don't have a mind for ourselves. Since he is talking mainly about economic problems that also effects minorities he should an ideal candidate and the Hillary is some she-devil that is untrustworthy she is not. Well it seems to me the those people are just extremely biased and passionate because there's one person that is saying a lot of liberal things. Also I don't give shit if Bernie marched with MLK .
Moving dem goalposts I see or more like going back to previous talking points when got nothing else to say.
And_Gignac
Member
3 states? you mean these states?
Texas
Clinton 36
Sanders 24
Biden 15
Wisconsin
Clinton 42
Sanders 30
Biden 17
North Carolina
Clinton 53
Biden/Sander 23
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Oh, maybe you meant the Michigan and that PPP NC poll where Sanders is at 22 & 17. Well, yeah, he wont win them all.
Here's your problem. Bernie is not organizationally better. He is also not better than Obama at this stage in fundraising.
You cannot state that Bernie is better organizationally when the proof of that has yet to show. We know Obama's campaign was a machine because he beat Hillary. Bernie hasn't beaten anyone. And I think you'd be hard pressed to prove that Bernie's organizational structure or his team composition or whatever is better than what Obama had at the time because you don't have that knowledge on your hands. Moreover, you lack of understanding about what the 1 dollar donations are actually for. If all you care about is optics (which you apparently do), then it's an attempt to lower the average donation. If what you're doing is building a database of people for use in the general election, which is what Obama did with his small donations, then the 1 dollar donations strategy is preparation. Hillary doesn't need massive amounts of small donors to roll in the dough; the evidence for that is the 2008 primary campaign, where she didn't get as organized as Obama's campaign seeking small donors, yet still raised record (for 2008) amounts of money. The 1 dollar donation strategy is intended to obtain data, not to look good.
In addition, a direct comparison of how much better Bernie is doing via small donations compared to Obama forgets to account for the expansion of political activities on the web over the past eight years. You noted this yourself, now apply it to the data! The Obama campaign was the one that utilized the web to strong advantage in the first place. In 2007, Twitter was still fresh and didn't even see 1 million tweets a quarter; present day Twitter sees over 100 million tweets daily. The kind of social network technology that is available to the Bernie campaign today was not available to the Obama campaign of 2008. If Bernie's web donations weren't doing better in this day and age post-crowd funding hype, that would be bad.
Looking at it now, after all these months of hype, internet spread and positive news coverage, the best Bernie can do is only 5 million more than Obama for the quarter? Obama, who didn't have the benefits of livestreaming, social networking, crowd funding? Bernie's total is lower than Obama's too; September 2007 filings indicate Obama's campaign total was $78 million for the year. If Bernie hauled in $26 million this quarter, he's only fundraised a significantly lower $40 million total.
There isn't much proof to indicate that Bernie will gain the support of minority voters just because he wins Iowa and/or NH. The fact that it was news that he hired a black lady after being heckled, when Hillary came out the gate with diverse hires and minority approaches, speaks volumes about who has actual inroads and who thought about minorities from day one. Do you think minority voters give a shit about Hillary's image problems? Do you think that's what minority voters are concerned about when they're at the voting booth?
So how is Bernie better than Obama organizationally and in fundraising again?
Your stanning of Bernie is about as annoying as the stanning of your PopGAF Qween of the week.
re: Alabama to stop issuing drivers licenses in counties w/75% black registered voters over in OT
Situations like these cast aspersions upon the arguments for the proposed voter ID laws.
Preemptive clarifying notes:
Note that even if you maintain that voter fraud is a widespread issue (it isn't), you can still criticize a specific plan put in place to address a (fabricated) issue for it's negative effects.
Note that regardless of stated intent, the result in this case is unacceptable voter disenfranchisement - and a very probable vested interest that this voter disenfranchisement is a welcome side effect.
Situations like these cast aspersions upon the arguments for the proposed voter ID laws.
Preemptive clarifying notes:
Note that even if you maintain that voter fraud is a widespread issue (it isn't), you can still criticize a specific plan put in place to address a (fabricated) issue for it's negative effects.
Note that regardless of stated intent, the result in this case is unacceptable voter disenfranchisement - and a very probable vested interest that this voter disenfranchisement is a welcome side effect.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
3 states? you mean these states?
Texas
Clinton 36
Sanders 24
Biden 15
Wisconsin
Clinton 42
Sanders 30
Biden 17
North Carolina
Clinton 53
Biden/Sander 23
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Oh, maybe you meant the Michigan and that PPP NC poll where Sanders is at 22 & 17. Well, yeah, he wont win them all.
Only double digit margins to make up for in each state. If Biden runs, Sanders loses ground to him and if Biden doesn't run, polls show his support goes to Clinton.
I wouldn't wanna be Sanders right now.
I fail to see how you've disproved any of my points.
My point wasn't what Obama would theoretically do if he was running right now for the first time. But a clear parallel with how the system has shifted since 2007 and how Bernie is taking advantage of this both organizationally and financially. He has been able to capitalize on the growth of the World Wide Web - to both ensure he reached a milestone of 1 million individual donations a full 6 months before Obama did comparatively in Feb 2008. Obama also raised 20 million back than compared to 26 million Bernie managed this quarter - which is 6 million more and is just 2 million shy of someone who has been running for president for nearly 2 decades.
Do tell me what goalposts I've moved and how exactly you have addressed any of my points.
And_Gignac
Member
Dont generalize. Im neither of the things you describe and I am the first to admit how annoying, condescending, borderline racist the Bernie Pauls are. But they are a fraction of Sanders supporting block and I would like to believe they dont represent Sanders at all. I am just arguing minorities can respond to political events as any other demographic, and that they are not fixed guaranteed Clinton votes, specially once Sanders gets a bigger plattform with the debates and the media coverage of his victories in Iowa/NH (if they happen, of course).
I am not "stanning" anyone. We SHOULDNT dismiss a pretty bigoted thing Clinton said just because she is the front runner of the liberal cause.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
New usatoday suffolk poll shows Biden and Sanders within the margin of error nationally.
They've been there in relation to each other for a few weeks now.
Don't be silly. Lana del Rey has never been the PopGAF queen.
Thank god I'm not a writer or anything
And_Gignac
Member
Margins that were x3 bigger just 3 months ago. I think he is in a very good position. And nah, it has been proven Biden is a problem for Clinton, not Sanders. At least that the consensus between pollsters.
It barely made the aggregates to move, though. It actually made Biden drop a few decimals
Clinton supporters are being specially aggresive against us #Sanderstans today. Is it because he has shown his campaign to be economically viable?
Abinash117
Member
Oh please.
You didn't say anything to what I said to you before. Now you want me to respond your backtrack that has registered voters national of every voter from both parties. Lol you either don't know how polling and partisanship works, or you know full well that you are bsing me and given no context to your BS.
You are liberal, right? Stop being like Fox News. You literally just posted a poll of registered voters from different parties and show the favorably differences between Bernie and Hillary and said "Look at his big crowds." .
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
With all this talk about Bernie/Biden/Clinton, I completely forgot about the others.
Apparently none of them even hit 1% on the RCP average.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
Clinton - 40.8
Sanders - 26.8
Biden - 20.0
Webb - 0.7
O'Malley - 0.7
Chafee - 0.2
I guess no one is even bothering to include Lessig.
Apparently none of them even hit 1% on the RCP average.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
Clinton - 40.8
Sanders - 26.8
Biden - 20.0
Webb - 0.7
O'Malley - 0.7
Chafee - 0.2
I guess no one is even bothering to include Lessig.
You haven't actually proven that Bernie is better organizationally or better at fundraising than Obama. The totals tell. The fact that Bernie has these significant advantages over Obamaincluding, might I add, that's he's whiteand the best he could do after all this media attention, tweeting, huge crowds and supposedly huge base of supporters, is just 5 million dollars more than what Obama hauled in in the same quarter? When in the year totals, he's 38 million behind what Obama had? You want to call that proof that Bernie is better organized and a better fundraiser than Obama?
Bernie couldn't raise more than Hillary for a quarter in which he is supposedly rising dramatically and she has had lots of bad news. He has less cash on hand than Hillary despite her campaign's crazy spending. Her campaign is building tech tools and hiring data analysts to properly utilize the tools needed for grassroots operations. Bernie's campaign is, instead, stuck spending on his own campaign TV ads, which Priorities USA can do for Hillary instead.
You can talk numbers of people. But I'm talking about the numbers in money, because that's what we have for comparison with Obama, and in the numbers in money, Bernie loses.
I fail to see any of your points having real merit.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
no wonder she's having mo'problems
curlyfriski
Banned
Oh come off it. As if poliGAF pointedly ignoring Hillary's flaws is any less blindly partisan.
BertramCooper
Banned
Low 20s? You realize that Bernie isn't a Republican and therefore his numbers with minorities continue to be totally pitiful, right?
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
OK, important tangent.
Where did "stans" come from, and does it just mean "annoying fans"?
Where did "stans" come from, and does it just mean "annoying fans"?
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
It's definitely true that Biden is causing the margin between Clinton and Sanders to shrink, but you can't exactly expect a split vote to help you win a primary when it's likely one of the two would drop out before the primary election. He needs to gain a lot more support than he has now to have a shot at winning.
The problem is if Biden runs all of the focus will be taken off of Sanders, and put onto Biden v Clinton, and that not a situation where it's easy to gain enough support to break out above the two.
Yeah, what she said in that e-mail is fairly shitty. However, it's from 2008. It's 2015 now. Yes, politician ideas can change and "evolve".
PoliGAF is fairly critical of Hillary on occasion.
Butts-a-plenty
Banned
Trump is still beating on the dead corpse of Scott Walker.
It's simple realism. No one seriously thinks Sanders has a chance. Sanders fans just like to pretend he does when they know if they look at it logically he doesn't have a shot in hell at getting near the Presidency.
It'd be kind of fun to just sit back and watch if their view wasn't destructive and downright dangerous. He'd lose in a massive landslide and set back the country decades.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Weird that it seems to becoming a thing just now, as far as I can tell.
We've dissected her thoroughly. It's fair to say that were keenly aware of her weaknesses/flaws/foibles.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I don't really support Clinton any more than any other Dem candidate, maybe Sanders because I think he is the best ticket to losing the general. I'm just highlighting some issues that Sanders supporters casually ignore.
I'm still trying to understand how Biden coming into the race and making Sanders go to 3rd place and be forgotten in the coverage of Clinton vs Biden is a good thing for him.
It's not, Biden jumping in is literally the worst thing that could happen to Bernie short of him losing his voice the day before the debate.
brainchild
Banned
Now this would be amazing. The crazy thing is that it could very well happen!
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Well, he does like to yell a lot.
brainchild
Banned
I like it. He seems like a grandpa that you look up to because of his ideals, but has a low tolerance for bullshit; as one of his teenage grandkids, if you act up, he'll give you one of those lectures that were painful to swallow, but stays with you for the rest of your life. I believe a lot of the millennials view him this way.
Just watch him whenever the media tries get him to personally attack Clinton. He doesn't just deflect the question, but checks them as if he was scolding one of his teenage grandkids for their adolescent behavior. It's pretty fascinating to watch.
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