Avon Barksdale
Member
Will the Republican candidates discuss the Oregon shooting or will they pussy out and just go back to talking about Planned Parenthood and Benghazi?
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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print
- Thread starter ivysaur12
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If history's anything to go by, it'll only be spoken of in the context of "if only there were more well-armed citizens nearby, we could have stopped this tragedy".
Fenderputty
Banned
So if debt ceiling comes up in early November, will Boehner have to deal with it before he leaves as well?
This Louisiana gubernatorial debate is a goddamn embarrassment. Half an hour gone, and not a single question about the existential issues that the state faces. Kim Davis, marijuana, Planned Parenthood.. I'm half-expecting a question about Trump at some point, or maybe a Coke-vs-Pepsi question.
It shown pretty clearly that he has a large portion of voters that aren't familiar with his policies and character. You can talk about the possibility of people that don't know Bernie are in the republican/independent spectrum but since there is no data on the breakdown. Like I mentioned people are downplaying the factor of national recognition due to the debates and all the exchanges that proceed and follow such occasions. Myself I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of registered Democratic voters are unfamiliar with Bernie. Just two months ago only a third of African Americans knew who he was.
I'm not talking about likability - just the amount of people who have no opinion or are undecided?
And like I keep pointing out, likability has no bearing on actual support. If it did Joe Biden would be the front runner.
And like I point out, those numbers have little to no bearing on actual support.
shinra-bansho
Member
Wait, the media and Evil Queen Hillarybot are friends/in cahoots/up a tree now?
I don't remember where I read it, but there was a theory floated that the media are being mean to Hillary right now so that they can point to the Summer of 2015 and say, "see? We can be tough on both sides!" when they're accused of helping her during the general.
Made me laaaaaaaaugh..
Abinash117
Member
You don't get it. The poll you showed that is polling of most likely of the three groups, but it makes no difference, because national favorably does not matter for a democrat party primary . Use favorably polls when it goes to dem primary voters. But that itself does not mean people will or not vote if someones favorably is low.
Even then it doesn't really matter. Those numbers are only useful for analyzing the corresponding poll numbers and their trends. They aren't a single choice, they ask everyone's opinion on all candidates.
How can you support someone you don't know?
shinra-bansho
Member
Lincoln Chafee would be vying for frontrunner too if he had Joe Biden's recognition. Dattebayo.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I want to believe
it
Jack Remington
Banned
Joe Biden might well be the front runner if he were actually in the race.
New Economist/YouGov national poll. Rubio keeps on rising.
http://politicalwire.com/2015/10/01/trump-leads-in-yet-another-national-poll/
Trump 25%
Rubio 16%
Carson 15%
Cruz 9%
Fiorina 8%
Bush 7%
http://politicalwire.com/2015/10/01/trump-leads-in-yet-another-national-poll/
Trump 25%
Rubio 16%
Carson 15%
Cruz 9%
Fiorina 8%
Bush 7%
Manmademan
Member
My "bush out after the next debate" prediction isn't looking too silly now, is it
The dude has cratered. there's no coming back from this.Manmademan
Member
Why would they do that?
Trump is the frontrunner, period. Way in front of everyone else, has been for quite some time. negative attacks don't work on him. They've tried everything. nothing works. It just gives him more media exposure, which he thrives on.
Better to simply pull your funding and back a candidate that's actually competitive than risk damaging them to the point where they aren't electable after Jeb! drops out.
Aww yeah. We're about to see a war break out.
I'm looking for Rubio's third quarter fundraising numbers, but for some reason can't find them..
++++
Aside:
30 minutes of the debate spent on Kim Davis, medical marijuana, and Planned Parenthood. The other half had really fluffy references to our Jindalized budget, no references to coastal conservation, maybe a tiny bit of vague guesturing about infrastructure, and a short section on education costs. The local news station is taking a beating for its selection of questions. Vitter did not look good.
Oh I'm not saying it would work, just that they may try and do it. Sheldon Adelson dropped a huge amount of money on negative ads against Romney before supporting him in the General IIRC. Is there a chance that self destructive behaviour happens again (though I doubt Adelson would).
My "bush out after the next debate" prediction isn't looking too silly now, is it
Jeb Bush will be the nominee.
Manmademan
Member
not really comparable, I think.
1.) Adelson isn't quite all there- he was backing Gingrich of all people prior to Romney- even Gingrich didn't think he was a serious candidate there. I wouldn't be surprised if he donated what he did just to give Romney a hard time.
2.) Romney was actually quite vulnerable. Got bodied by huckabee and Mccain of all people four years earlier- the base was clearly looking for ANYONE else- just about everyone spent at least a week or two at the top of the polls with mitt at #2. It was only the ability to outspend everyone else 10-1 that kept Romney in it.
Can't really say the same for Trump. He's been way in front from the start, completely immune to negative attacks, debates don't matter, money doesn't matter. You take him out by culling the field of weak candidates and consolidating the establishment vote. And right now Bush is the weakest establishment candidate there is. Having him drop out and endorse rubio or cruz in exchange for a VP spot means Trump actually has viable competition. The longer you don't do this, the harder it becomes to actually get him out of the race.
Is Jeb gonna want to do this though? Isn't there a strong sense from his campaign it's his "turn"?
I guess what I'm asking is, its reported Jeb has raised something like $100 million along with his Super PAC. What are the mechanics of his donors rescinding that money?
Tarkus
Member
Wanna bet avatars?
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
My "bush out after the next debate" prediction isn't looking too silly now, is it
It still looks silly. Jeb's PACs still have a ton of money to try to turn that around, and I doubt he leaves the race until they spend that money.
Manmademan
Member
Jeb has raised jack shit from small donors and grassroots.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/election-2016-campaign-money-race.html?_r=0
It's all the superPAC, and at least half of that is from ultra-wealthy donors giving more than a million- some of which are corporations and not actually "people.". This makes him EXTREMELY vulnerable, since if any of them decide to pull their support his campaign is done...and there is already a bit of noise being made about exactly this.
The PAC itself is technically independent and not controlled by Jeb at all- they could spend that money pretty much anywhere.
Thequietone
Member
Trump will take out Rubio. JEB! is in this for the long haul. In the end it will be Trump vs. JEB! for the nomination.
Manmademan
Member
I can see this happening. Rubio looks to be very "flavor of the month" here to me, and Trump could completely slaughter him on the immigration issue.
Interesting that Carly seems to have hit a ceiling at 3rd/4th place though- that post debate narrative had her taking the lead from Trump.
cartoon_soldier
Member
You guys are underestimating Rubio. If people settle on a candidate at this point it will be Rubio.
Frank the Great
Banned
Carly will be the VP candidate IMO.
And_Gignac
Member
Biden and Clinton compete for similar voters, Sanders wont lose much from Biden running, since he has his base assured due to antagonism. He would need less gains/converts to become number one in polls with Biden in. Being mediatized as "first on polls" can have a major positive impact in his campaign.
The Washington Post made a dissection of the latest USA Today poll, which had a rich analysis of trends with black voters. The results are pretty interesting and positive for Sanders, actually:
Again, this is just one poll with a signficant margin of error and that has Sanders with very high vote awareness. I am sticking to my guns though, if Sanders has a good debate performance and he wins with a commanding lead both in Iowa and New Hampshire, black voters and other minorities will respond as any other demographic would.
RustyNails
Member
If Jeb does become the nominee it will be quite a feat. Expect to hear lot of "comeback kid" in news.
Third Strike
Member
Wouldn't Rubio offer more to the electoral table? At least he has a higher chance of picking up Florida, and a higher turnout of Hispanic voters.
Tarkus
Member
Maybe she shot herself in the foot with fetusgate.
Manmademan
Member
I think Rubio has a good shot at eventually being the candidate- but we haven't yet see him take any heat or negative attacks in the race. I think his recent numbers are higher than they should be- and if anyone attacks him next debate they're going to come down to earth a little.
As a politician, he's not very impressive. No real record to run on, and his immigration position is a giant weak spot with the republican base. He has charisma and gave a good debate performance in the second though, so there's that. The first wasn't good for him at all though- so we'll see which Rubio shows up in a few weeks.
I said as much a few pages back- the "carly is a liar" narrative is definitely hurting her, but this is faster than I would have thought if the yougov poll is accurate (I'm not 100% on this). I think she's probably 3rd/4th and not as low as yougov has her down with Cruz. Either way though she's polling WAY below where someone who was widely considered to have "won" the last debate should be.
Frank the Great
Banned
Rubio will be the other candidate. ;-)
Tarkus
Member
"Rubio... Young guy, although he sweats more than any young person Ive ever seen in my life. Ive never seen a person sweat and down water like he downs water. They bring it in in buckets for this guy."
Manmademan
Member
Rubio actually doesn't do well with Latino voters- at least not better than the rest of the GOP. There is a very big gap between the interests of Cubans and the rest of US hispanics.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/apr/12/marco-rubio-unlikely-to-earn-gop-new-hispanic-fans/?page=all
that would be something, but I can't conceive of how this actually happens. The guy sticks his foot in his mouth constantly, has awful stage presence at rallies and just gets dominated on the debate stage. The only positive he has at all is his last name. If he was "jeb smith" he'd be polling in the basement with Jindal.
Coriolanus
Banned
The thing i don't get about Rubio's appeal is why one would make him the frontrunner, given that you can get all of his (dubious) positives by simply running with him as a VP. Wouldn't even be seen as a defeat for him, given how young he is.
Whereas that isn't an option for Jebbo.
If jeb sticks around and his donors don't bail out, wouldn't be surprised to see a Jeb/Rub ticket.
Whereas that isn't an option for Jebbo.
If jeb sticks around and his donors don't bail out, wouldn't be surprised to see a Jeb/Rub ticket.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Bush has way too much PAC money to drop out now. Someone posted a WaPo article last week about donors basically giving him one more chance to impress them before they move on (to Rubio).
You're looking at polls of all respondents, not of only registered dems. You need to be looking at only registered dems, independents won't help him as most primaries are closed, if you did you'd see there's more than enough room for Biden to jump in and marginalize Bernie. Bernie's down by like 30 points among registered dems, even counting current Biden votes. He's not going to squeak through with a gap like that, there's more than enough room for Hillary and Biden to duke it out without needing to worry about Bernie.
Plus Biden jumping in would steal all his hype. He'd be sent to third place almost instantly. Part of the reason he's doing well is there's no other candidate for people to get hyped up over, Hillary's too pragmatic for that so Bernie's filling that role at the moment.
Retromelon
Member
Ted cruz is trying to escape the basement, poll-wise, but jindal is pulling him back down and Santorum stands in the corner smiling, his face wreathed in shadow, his sticky fingers clutching a bottle of maple syrup
spoke too soon. Taken from faux news.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/jeb-bush-marco-rubio-game-on-214326#ixzz3nNO9154i
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Jeb will lose his donors unless he destroys Rubio in the next month so this isn't too surprising.
Losing half your Florida EVs would be suicide in a close contest.
He's just going to be doing Trump's work for him.
Who hasn't Trump unloaded on so far in the field? Ted Cruz?
Would he even pick someone in the field as a VP?
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