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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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U

User 406

Banned
A Human Becoming said:
Ah sorry, I think I'm still frazzled from working the four day build up to the primary.

At least my efforts contributed to Bernie winning in my county by over 25%.
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Your experience this time may have sucked, but you put in some real work for democracy. You should be proud of it. Don't let a few douchebags keep you from helping out in the future.
 
T

Tom_Cody

Member
RastaMentality said:
Trump won NH with a 3 point greater margin than Romney (with a smaller race) but yet this will go on probably much longer. Rubio's aides are already saying SC will be a bloodbath but I can't see Trump not winning by another 15+ margin again.
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This seems like the most likely outcome. Cruz will almost certainly come in second, but I think a ~15 point win for Trump sounds about right. Then again, who knows what will happen between now and the primary.
 
M

maabus1999

Member
Crab said:
I was going off HuffPo for Sanders beating it by 5 points. RCP makes it even clearer how much Sanders outperformed his polling.

For reference, the most recent Nevada poll we had was from the amateur organization Overtime Politics, which was 47-44 Clinton on Jan 22nd. While amateur, they got 55-41 Sanders-Clinton in New Hampshire and 48-47 Sanders-Clinton in Iowa, which made them actually one of the most accurate pollsters for both.

If you want to disclude that, the last poll we had from Nevada was Gravis from the 27th of December, where it was 50-27 Clinton-Sanders, for a 23 point lead. Two points about that: firstly, that's from December. Sanders is polling about 6 points higher nationally now than he was then, and conversely Clinton 6 points lower. If we assume Nevada follows national trends (and this is very likely because Nevada is quite close to the average Democratic primary demographically), that would make it 44-33 Clinton-Sanders. Secondly, Gravis has hugely overstated Clinton in all their polls. In New Hampshire, they overestimated Clinton by 4 and underestimated Sanders by 2. In Iowa, they overestimated Clinton by 3 and underestimated Sanders by 7. In New Hampshire, they overestimated Clinton by 4 and underestimated Sanders by 14. Even if we assume they make a same-sized mistake as Iowa, that would make it 41-40 Clinton-Sanders. Accounting for Don't Knows reducing now we're in February, those are very similar numbers to Overtime Politics.

If you want to exclude Gravis because they're shit, the last poll we had from Nevada was CNN/ORC from the 10th of October (yes, Nevada is really badly polled). They had it 50-34 Clinton-Sanders. Since then, Clinton has gained 5 and Sanders 8 nationally (Biden was still in the race at that point). That would make it 55-42. In New Hampshire, CNN/ORC overstated Clinton by 5 and understated Sanders by 9. That would make it 50-49 Sanders-Clinton. Again, this is in a very similar ballpark to both of the prior two when you account for differences in Don't Know.

My guesstimation is that Nevada is actually very close right now. That's not just me thinking that. Jon Ralston, the leading Nevadan political analyst thinks so. Sanders has been quietly picking up some key Nevadan and Arizonan Hispanic community leaders. Rumour has it that both campaigns' internal polling is picking up a steady swing in the Hispanic vote - not enough for Sanders to lead the Hispanic vote, but a small enough gap to make the state very competitive.

The big downside is that Sanders has essentially no ground game there, so there are big questions as to whether he can capitalize on this momentum in a caucus state.

If Sanders wins Nevada, all bets are off. He is my favourite for the nomination at that point, no doubt about it. If the margin is in within 5 points, we're looking at a long race that will be genuinely competitive as far as the Convention, especially with Sanders fundraising like it is. If the margin is 5-10 points, Clinton is the overwhelming favourite but the race will probably still continue. If the margin is greater than 10 points, everyone gets off the Bernie bus and starts cheering for the Hilldawg.

That's my call. Nevada is critically important for this race. Let's see how it goes!
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After the a short interview with the Campaign manager for Bernie, you can see they are not very confident about winning Nevada at this time. Remember, it is a closed caucus, so the Bernie method of getting independents and first time voters can't happen without a good ground game BEFORE the caucus, and it isn't evident yet.

And if the service worker's union does decide to back Clinton after the Sander Staffer's impersonating Union members, I think Nevada will be over for Sanders.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
BERN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE THREAD. Clinton and Sanders supporters (mostly the latter) digging up all kinds of shit they can to prove a point.

"Hillary doesn't deserve the black vote because blah blah blah"

They don't get it. No one deserves a vote. They usually earn them. If black voters think Hillary will give them the best next 4-8 years, she's earned them and that's it. They don't owe you a Sanders vote just because he has supported policies that intended to help them in the past.

I do wonder, do black voters care about gun control? Does Obama being on the Hillary side of gun control change things at all? Just a thought that popped into my head.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Abinash117 said:
Bernie won as expected, but not as much as some people thought. The average in RCP was 13, but still many polls still had Hillary losing in the double digits and at the same time the polls were partially all over the place.
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Number of polls which predicted a Sanders win of more than 22 in the final month of NH polling: 1 (CNN/WMUR, predicted +26).

Number of polls which predicted a Sanders win of less than 22 in the final month of NH polling: 10 (ARG, predicted +9, UMass Lowell, predicted +16, Emerson, predicted +12, Monmouth, predicted +10, FPU, predicted +7, Suffolk, predicted +9, Gravis, predicted +3 (lol), Marist, predicted +20, Overtime Politics, predicted +14, WBUR, predicted +15)

"Sanders did not win as much as some people thought"

ok
 
Futurematic

Futurematic

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
The dems never used to let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
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Could you tell that to Ted Kennefy in the early '70s? You Americans could have had your current healthcare 40 years earlier if he had said yes to Nixon.

The Democratic Party is infamously self-sabotaging, on multiple fronts.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
maabus1999 said:
After the a short interview with the Campaign manager for Bernie, you can see they are not very confident about winning Nevada at this time. Remember, it is a closed caucus, so the Bernie method of getting independents and first time voters can't happen without a good ground game BEFORE the caucus, and it isn't evident yet.

And if the service worker's union does decide to back Clinton after the Sander Staffer's impersonating Union members, I think Nevada will be over for Sanders.
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I'm not confident he'll win either. I think he'll lose, which is why overall I think Clinton will win. I'm just saying that I think there is a reasonable chance he could win, and that if he did then the nature of the race is completely different; unlike say South Carolina where Sanders will never, ever win.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Macho Madness said:
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/hillary-clinton-hire-former-obama-deputy-campaign-manager

That sounds like good news?
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Really good news. But will she be able to penetrate the Clinton circle where long term loyalists tend to reside?

She set the stage to really keep OFA alive financially but I believe Obama dropped the ball. That organization should have been put to use, organizing on the grassroots and electingl Iike minded liberals to school boards and state legislative positions. Instead of kinda just languished until the administration wanted to use it to fight for various things going on in Washington. I'm really disappointed in how it was handled.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
So many conservative writers on Twitter are retweeting David Frum saying that the 2012 GOP autopsy was what killed the party.

... You know, the one where the RNC said that the party needed to be less racist?

........ How do these guys pretend that they're serious people?
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Y2Kev said:
Rubio still got 0 delegates?
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Only technically. He's on 10.5% with 95% counted. If not a single person in the remaining 5% voted for him, he'd finish with 9.8% and not get delegates, so they can't confirm he actually has got delegates. As long as he gets 0.5% of the remaining vote, he meets the threshold, though, so he will get delegates - same as how Sanders will get 15-9 but has officially only got 13-9. The official count should be Trump 10, Kasich 4, Bush, Cruz and Rubio 3 each barring anything absolutely crazy.
 
M

maabus1999

Member
M

maabus1999

Member
Crab said:
Honestly, I think this will impact the choices of about 10 people tops.
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I agree nationally it wont but it is a story that made local las vegas news which is a what really matters; it is more of the theme Sanders unfortunately has going for him due to his staffers making mistakes (this plus the Union fiasco).
 
H

Holmes

Member
I don't think much stock can be put in Sanders winning most demographics in a state he won by 22%.

What I think is more important is that a lot of people placed income inequality as their top issue and had Hillary as less trustworthy. They need to work on that going froward. And I think it's a messaging problem. I think she previewed a new talking point in her speech last night talking about being a fighter for women's rights, LGBT rights, workers' rights, and she should easily be able to tie that into income inequality by saying that when we fight inequality across the board and for the rights of the disenfranchised, we all get ahead, and she's a proven fighter. Hopefully they get their messaging act together going into the next two states that should favor her.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
-- The clearest explanation: Voters followed their hearts, not their heads. Take Tom Meehan, a 68-year-old psychiatrist who voted for Bernie: “She will have a better chance in November, frankly, but I decided to vote for who I wanted rather than worry about November.”
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imrs.php
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
-- Another bright spot on a dark night for HRC: Her loss in New Hampshire might get Jim Clyburn and the CBC off the sidelines. Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) told Paul Kane last night that he might endorse now. Close friends and family, including his wife and daughter, are putting intense pressure on him to come out for Clinton. He said it “was” his “intention” to stay neutral. “But I am re-evaluating that,” he said. “I really am having serious conversations with my family members.” Clyburn acknowledged to The Post that the Congressional Black Caucus’ political action committee, chaired by Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), has decided to endorse Clinton but is holding off on making it formal out of deference to him.
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Ryan Lizza ✔ @RyanLizza
The pressure on Obama to endorse Hillary will be intense in coming weeks
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.
 
M

maabus1999

Member
PBY said:
That honesty thing sucks for Hillary in a GE.
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Good thing she'll be running against the GOP right? The good news is their anti-Clinton campaign is pretty much played out with the emails, Benghazi, etc... so I don't see it changing much at this time.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
I can't see Obama endorsing anyone. It just doesn't seem like his style. Yes, it'd probably wrap this up quick (and she'd definitely end up winning SC by massive margins) but he probably wants her to do this on her own until she actually gets the nomination.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Finally found the results from my small town, which I refused to canvass in: Bernie won by 33 points. The caveat is 69% of voters took the Republican ticket. More people voted for Trump and Christie than Hillary and Bernie.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
On a different note, NBC confirming that Belafonte will endorse Sanders. Man, I hope Al Sharpton was also convinced, that would be an incredible double bomb to drop on SC.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
Crab said:
Number of polls which predicted a Sanders win of more than 22 in the final month of NH polling: 1 (CNN/WMUR, predicted +26).

Number of polls which predicted a Sanders win of less than 22 in the final month of NH polling: 10 (ARG, predicted +9, UMass Lowell, predicted +16, Emerson, predicted +12, Monmouth, predicted +10, FPU, predicted +7, Suffolk, predicted +9, Gravis, predicted +3 (lol), Marist, predicted +20, Overtime Politics, predicted +14, WBUR, predicted +15)

"Sanders did not win as much as some people thought"

ok
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Why are you selectively choosing polls ? Lol , you are being too obvious. Many of the polls had her in the double digits which I said and some around 20. There were far more polls that had her in the double digits than not. Also, I don't know why you even used that quote since it doesn't have anything to do with what I said.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Abinash117 said:
Why are you selectively choosing polls ? Lol , you are being too obvious. Many of the polls had her in the double digits which I said and some around 20. There were far more polls that had her in the double digits than not. Also, I don't know why you even used that quote since it doesn't have anything to do with what I said.
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I didn't select polls. I quoted the final poll released by every single pollster to poll NH in the final month. If you can find one I missed, I will *very* happily add it. So, I call bullshit on you. Secondly, it had exactly to do with what you said. Sanders beat expectations in NH. You denied this, and you are wrong.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
UltimaPooh said:
Why do we keep coming back to this point.

Unless there are new polls I'm missing... Bernie beats Hilary against all the Republican noms in the GE.
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They're about to insist that Sanders will do worse with more exposure and Clinton better, despite the fact that the more exposure Sanders has had the more his approval ratings have gone up and vice versa for Clinton. It's a dull argument, PoliGAF has been through it a lot of times and they never get any more convincing.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Cesare Borgia said:
That's a different situation (Vice President).

I don't believe Obama will endorse Clinton or anyone else until this is over or "basically over." I think Obama is smart enough to recognize Clinton should have to earn this, and while I'm sure he dislikes Sanders there is probably also some admiration for what he's doing right now.
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ding ding.

Can she come out stronger after this or weaker? The conventional wisdom is that a primary makes you stronger.
 
M

maabus1999

Member
Cesare Borgia said:
That's a different situation (Vice President).

I don't believe Obama will endorse Clinton or anyone else until this is over or "basically over." I think Obama is smart enough to recognize Clinton should have to earn this, and while I'm sure he dislikes Sanders there is probably also some admiration for what he's doing right now.
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How is it different if it was before the primaries? The previous posting said a President has never endorsed....

And by your logic, what is different between the VP and Sec of State who is the third highest rank in an administration? Not that big of a jump...
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Cesare Borgia said:
That's a different situation (Vice President).

I don't believe Obama will endorse Clinton or anyone else until this is over or "basically over." I think Obama is smart enough to recognize Clinton should have to earn this, and while I'm sure he dislikes Sanders there is probably also some admiration for what he's doing right now.
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It would make sense since Bernie is trying to do what he did.
NeoXChaos said:
ding ding.

Can she come out stronger after this or weaker? The conventional wisdom is that a primary makes you stronger.
Click to expand...
Where have you heard that? I always hear candidates need to be weary of primary comments haunting them in the general.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
Younger black people only (somewhat) remember Belafonte for coming for the Carters. I can't see that endorsement doing much for him among anyone besides maybe older black voters. Sharpton's been losing his goodwill among blacks people over the years because he trots onto CNN acting like a spokesman for everyone.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Crab said:
They're about to insist that Sanders will do worse with more exposure and Clinton better, despite the fact that the more exposure Sanders has had the more his approval ratings have gone up and vice versa for Clinton. It's a dull argument, PoliGAF has been through it a lot of times and they never get any more convincing.
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The argument isn't that Sanders will do worse with more exposure, it's that he'll do worse with more targeting by Republican oppo campaigns.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
As we get closer to South Carolina, there's going to be a lot of think pieces (The Nation just posted one) that equate Bill Clinton's actions on welfare as Hillary Clinton's record.

Can we all do me a favor and not just assume that whatever Bill says or does is something that Hillary Clinton agrees with? Even as FLOTUS, it becomes even more complicated because Hillary was often used by the Clinton administration as a bit of a prop to calm liberals down.

It gets into a very strange territory.

pigeon said:
The argument isn't that Sanders will do worse with more exposure, it's that he'll do worse with more targeting by Republican oppo campaigns.
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Yeah. Crab, this has always been the argument, never about "more exposure". I don't know where you would've gotten that from.
 
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