-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada
- Thread starter Makai
- Start date
- Status
To be fair, last time around the pre-South Carolina debate gave Gingrich the victory, and a lot of that was his performance in the debate and the crowd cheering him on. They definitely didn't want a repeat of that happening.
Watching Douthat witness and cope with what's been going on over the past year ("terms of surrender" on marriage equality, denial over Trump's potential, and now ramifications of Scalia's departure) has been pretty interesting.
In a limited sense, he's right. If Trump is nominated, it's a signal that the party base didn't really care too deeply about adhering to conservative principles. And if Scalia's replacement is a lefty, suddenly egregious conservative legislation, redistricting schemes, and a whole generation of close rulings all become less solidly-grounded.
About what exactly?
riverboatgambler
Banned
I believe Douthat is touching on an intellectual decline. Scalia rose just as the Federalist society did, and triggered a new wave of conservative legal theorists. With Scalia dead and Trump on the march its a new era of politics unmoored from political or legal theory.
Liberalism was at its sharpest when conservatives were difficult to beat, Bill Clinton had a seemingly endless stack of policy papers in the 1992 election. Today candidates just throw up websites with vague, sufficiently diffusive policy proposals to match either polling data or donors.
Trump. I can't say how this will affect Trump. In the past, the audience has clearly been against him and he's clearly been "attacked," but I feel like 9/11 is sort of sacred ground for Republicans. It's obviously a deep insecurity. The war in Iraq is another. It's very hard to comprehend how this could affect things. If Rubio wins South Carolina, Trump is back to in-major-trouble.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
15 points is a huge lead to surmount in a week.
riverboatgambler
Banned
I still think Trumps core appeal is on domestic policy and no other candidate will venture far enough from orthodoxy to challenge him on that. Its a very, very risky move and does settle in my mind that Trump is running on instinct and not really calculating or calibrating what he is doing.
We saw Rubio crash 5-6 points basically over a weekend.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
That's 5 or 6 points. Still need ten more.
Also, look at that Google trends map for during the debate Trump posted at 1:39 AM. Rubio was fourth. Plus, with Jeb performing well last night, Rubio isn't siphoning his voters.
It's called sandbagging. When you're way ahead, you do flashy stuff to rile the crowd and give your opponents a chance.
Poodlestrike
Banned
Are you familiar with the term "gone horribly right?"
GregLombardi
Member
I too find this strange...I was shocked when I looked at the date of the next primary. Maybe the news is focusing on other things? Or doesn't like what they see regarding the agenda to make it a close race?
QuiteWhittle
Member
While I'm looking at Senate races to donate to, can someone explaim why everyone seems to be throwing their weight behind Katie McGinty over Joe Sestak in the PA Senate race?
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I, for one, am shocked that the same "Politico insiders" that said Trump was "finished" after the last debate are saying the exact same thing after this one.
Politico is a hilarious disaster at this point.
Politico is a hilarious disaster at this point.
Trump was Trump last night. I have to admit, he hasn't played any of this in a safe manner. He just keeps on rolling the dice. I don't think his stances are going to particularly hurt him as I imagine most of his voters know about his past and somewhat current stances on a number of these topics. The Planned Parenthood thing might ding him a bit especially in South Carolina.
shinra-bansho
Member
NV is hard (and expensive) to poll apparently. Turnout is unpredictable, has to be done in both English and Spanish, high cellphone use, transitory population, and a caucus system.
And Trump dived further into Trumpeting than before so I don't know how well his Trumpeters will take it.
And Trump dived further into Trumpeting than before so I don't know how well his Trumpeters will take it.
Yoda
Member
They really are going full retard and trying to derail Trump. The irony is It will galvanize his supporters even more. They don't want to be told who to vote for from people inside the beltway.
I come from an extremely conservative family (some of who ironically live in SC). Most conservatives aren't ignorant to the fact PP provides healthcare as the majority of their operations, they simply opt for ignorance when it suits their agenda (pushing pro-life policies). What Trump said is nothing they don't know AND acknowledge. It won't hurt him at all.
QuiteWhittle
Member
New CBS News poll for SC primary
Trump: 42
Cruz: 20
Rubio: 15
Kasich: 9
Clinton: 59
Sanders: 40
https://twitter.com/samsteinhp
Trump: 42
Cruz: 20
Rubio: 15
Kasich: 9
Clinton: 59
Sanders: 40
https://twitter.com/samsteinhp
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
It boggles my mind that even when faced with pure factual numbers, republicans refuse to admit that PP does the slightest bit of good for women's health.
Edit: 22-point lead in SC over Cruz, who sucked in the debate? Yeah, I don't see Rubio jumping that high to take this one.
Edit: 22-point lead in SC over Cruz, who sucked in the debate? Yeah, I don't see Rubio jumping that high to take this one.
Everyone being people or politicians?
McGinty is backed by the Clintons I believe.
I also just remembered she was Tom Wolf's chief of staff. She has connections.
Love it!
By the way, this 80 years since a justice has been nominated (not confirmed, because we know that is untrue) during an election year point is total garbage. The last time a justice died during an election year was 1888, so this is not some kind of historical precedent or off-the-books rule, it's just something that has not really happened before.
shinra-bansho
Member
That's pretty close for comfort. Time to Diablos, Hillary.
This is a little more in line with what I was expecting compared to the ARG numbers yesterday that had clinton up by 38.
Basically looks like she's doing to him what he did to her in NH. Still a yuge mountain to climb, but if he can narrow the gap a bit more it won't look so bad.
User 463088
Banned
YouGov has always been Bernie's best pollster. He's up 2 from the end of January, which is probably just noise. I would argue this is Bernie's best case scenario.
Yeah I just saw that.
Still I think there's time to narrow this by 5 or 6 points, particularly with a win in Nevada. The political landscape is a constantly shifting thing, not static (hopefully). Just depends on how entrenched people are.
Roland_Gunner
Member
I get hoping your candidate can stage a late turn around. Hell I was convinced Hillary would lose New Hampshire by less than 15, but if a huge win there didn't give Sanders any momentum, nothing else is.
When he did that I bet every country bumpkin watching tilted their head like a confused dog.
Tarkus
Member
Rubio was the clear winner. Every question he got was knocked out of the park. I expect a jump in the polls for him and drop for BUS TED the liar. Kasich was solid too; I'm starting to like him a lot. A Rubio/Kasich ticket in the GE would mean defeat for either dem candidate.
Cruz was skewered by Rubio and mortally wounded by Trump. "Liar" will now always associated with the slimey bastard.
Trump was being Trump. While he spilled blood, he didn't do so well with the questions and had little actual substance. I did like his PP comment.
Bush did well with questions, however, Trump damn near broke him in half.
Carson...zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Cruz was skewered by Rubio and mortally wounded by Trump. "Liar" will now always associated with the slimey bastard.
Trump was being Trump. While he spilled blood, he didn't do so well with the questions and had little actual substance. I did like his PP comment.
Bush did well with questions, however, Trump damn near broke him in half.
Carson...zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Actually they were pretty much dead on in NH and Iowa. Not skewed.
Their last two polls:
NH - Clinton (38) Sanders (57)
Iowa - Clinton (46) Sanders (47)
theprodigy
Member
Wow really sticking your neck out there with that prediction.
Tarkus
Member
Quoting from debate thread:
The fear of Trump is going to quickly lessen once he wins the nomination and then in the general he starts to slide more and more to the middle and to the left on certain issues, just like he already has started to do a little bit. There will of course be people out there with that incredible fear, but it's not going to be anywhere close to what it is now.
Ted Cruz is having a bad morning. Marco Rubio is on FTN right now agreeing with Trump and calling Cruz a liar, then Trump put this out this morning, lol...
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/214989/right-stuff-ted-cruz
It's almost like, "Were you there?"
It's more to do with the fact that this particular polls include Independent voters. While others probably don't - this gives Bernie an advantage. We won't find out which pollster will be right but I was talking about the polling average.
The poll is out officially, I find this especially important, especially in light of recent messaging by Clinton.
Macho Madness
Member
Clinton leads AA in that poll 73/26. That's where Bernie needs to continue making up ground.
What indicates a problem for him is that 0% of Black voters in that poll indicated they "were not too strong" about their choice of candidate and only 5% said they were "somewhat strong".
What indicates a problem for him is that 0% of Black voters in that poll indicated they "were not too strong" about their choice of candidate and only 5% said they were "somewhat strong".
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked