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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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danm999

Member
What are you even talking about? Obama got elected because he was a great campaigner and because he managed to couch an essentially centrist political platform in progressive-sounding phrases like "Hope", "Change", and "Yes We Can". Obama's campaign was reduction employed with surgical precision toward a good cause. There's nothing to be ashamed of in that.

I agree. And when Clinton argues for her candidacy on behalf of women it's because she's fought for decades for equal pay, for access to health care, to parental care, to creating opportunities for women and smashing glass ceilings.

It's not because she has a uterus, nor has she ever argued it is. That shit is reductive as hell and it frustrates to see people say it and try and defend it.
 
You could run Wilson the Volleyball with a D next to his name and probably get similar results. It's like people have completely forgotten how a Purple Heart veteran became Unfit for Command.
 
Sanders does much better against Trump in the head to head polls than Clinton does. I know people don't think those have value now - and I'm about 50/50 on whether I agree that they don't - but there still are reasons to think Sanders might make a better general election candidate against Trump especially given the current economic and political climate. I am not the only person who thinks this, either.
No but I don't think it's a coincidence that about ~95% of the people who do think this are Bernie supporters.

I get the logic behind it (Trump as an outsider can exploit Hillary's weaknesses, which he can't for Bernie) but Hillary has faced an onslaught of negative campaigning for almost 25 years. Bernie has not. Just about every national politician starts off with favorable ratings until the TV man tells you why you shouldn't like him.

Btw Hillary and Bernie both beat a Trump by an 8 point average on Pollster.
 

benjipwns

Banned
sooo bad

LhbNFze.gif
 
I agree. And when Clinton argues for her candidacy on behalf of women it's because she's fought for decades for equal pay, for access to health care, to parental care, to creating opportunities for women and smashing glass ceilings.

It's not because she has a uterus, nor has she ever argued it is. That shit is reductive as hell and it frustrates to see people say it and try and defend it.

She could have chosen to let others make the argument re: her womanhood for her, but instead, she chose to take it head on and make being a woman a central part of why people should find her appealing as a candidate. Calling this out as cynical pandering to deflect from her lackluster record is completely fair game.
 

danm999

Member
She could have chosen to let others make the argument re: her womanhood for her, but instead, she chose to take it head on and make being a woman a central part of why people should find her appealing as a candidate. Calling this out as cynical pandering to deflect from her lackluster record is completely fair game.

It is her record though. It's a great deal of what she has worked for over her life, even when Secretary of State. Her status as the person running with the best voting record and sponsorship of most bills to improve access to women's health care in the Senate are why she got the Planned Parenthood nomination for instance.

I don't see why it is cynical.
 

benjipwns

Banned
lol, https://www.plannedparenthoodaction...ton-and-bernie-sanders-compare-womens-health/
Clinton boldly spoke out in support of Planned Parenthood — without prompting — at each of the first three Democratic debates, as well as dozens of times on the campaign trail.

Sanders did not mention Planned Parenthood during the first three Democratic debates, but has made supportive statements several times on the campaign trail.
I love how they boil away any specifics on Sanders' record.

Clinton helped beat back a proposal to define birth control (including IUDs) as abortion, saving federal funds for certain medical providers.
Yet:
In addition to Senators Clinton and Murray, today's letter to Secretary Leavitt was signed by Senators Akaka, Baucus, Biden, Boxer, Brown, Cantwell, Cardin, Dodd, Durbin, Feinstein, Harkin, Kerry, Klobuchar, Lautenberg, Leahy, Levin, Lincoln, McCaskill, Menendez, Mikulski, Obama, Sanders, Schumer, Stabenow, Tester, and Whitehouse.
So why isn't that listed when he signed the same letter?

Typical establishment.
 
I need a new avatar guys. I got this one for real pic January and haven't bothered changing it back. Wanna guess the Nevada results and who ever's closest gets to pick my replacement? I'll keep it for at least 2 weeks.

I think it'll be 50.8-49.2 Sanders.
 
It is her record though. It's a great deal of what she has worked for over her life, even when Secretary of State. Her status as the person running with the best voting record and sponsorship of most bills to improve access to women's health care in the Senate are why she got the Planned Parenthood nomination for instance.

I don't see why it is cynical.

I don't have a problem with Hillary talking up her championing of women's health issues, but she has cited her womanhood as some kind of an inherent virtue to her candidacy several times throughout the campaign, and even used it to deflect legitimate criticism of her weaknesses as a candidate, such as arguing she's not "really" part of the establishment because she is a woman, or her campaign trying to make the case that the high volume of criticism she receives is because she is a woman, and not because she has a metric fuck-ton of baggage because of who she's married to and the administration she was a part of. I think she's politically savvy enough that she knows, in her gut, that she has a lot of weaknesses as a candidate and is cynically playing to the fact that there is a more generalized hunger to see underrepresented groups finally "break the mold" to deflect scrutiny that she might otherwise fairly receive.
 

Makai

Member
I need a new avatar guys. I got this one for real pic January and haven't bothered changing it back. Wanna guess the Nevada results and who ever's closest gets to pick my replacement? I'll keep it for at least 2 weeks.

I think it'll be 49.8-48.4 Sanders.
50 Clinton - 50 Sanders
 

Hexa

Member
I need a new avatar guys. I got this one for real pic January and haven't bothered changing it back. Wanna guess the Nevada results and who ever's closest gets to pick my replacement? I'll keep it for at least 2 weeks.

I think it'll be 49.8-48.4 Sanders.

3.7 points in favor of Clinton.
 

Holmes

Member
I need a new avatar guys. I got this one for real pic January and haven't bothered changing it back. Wanna guess the Nevada results and who ever's closest gets to pick my replacement? I'll keep it for at least 2 weeks.

I think it'll be 49.8-48.4 Sanders.
Still saying 52-48. % should equal 100 because there's just two people to caucus for (unless uncommitted does really well for some reason).
 

danm999

Member
I don't have a problem with Hillary talking up her championing of women's health issues, but she has cited her womanhood as some kind of an inherent virtue to her candidacy several times throughout the campaign, and even used it to deflect legitimate criticism of her weaknesses as a candidate, such as arguing she's not "really" part of the establishment because she is a woman, or her campaign trying to make the case that the high volume of criticism she receives is because she is a woman, and not because she has a metric fuck-ton of baggage because of who she's married to and the administration she was a part of. I think she's politically savvy enough that she knows, in her gut, that she has a lot of weaknesses as a candidate and is cynically playing to the fact that there is a more generalized hunger to see underrepresented groups finally "break the mold" to deflect scrutiny that she might otherwise fairly receive.

She has definitely given some very groan worthy answers about being a woman on specific issues I will agree with that, but I don't think it undermines her credibility on the subject of women's issues.

Every caucus goes to coin flips, and Hillary wins every single one.

Nevada caucus they cut a deck of cards.

I need a new avatar guys. I got this one for real pic January and haven't bothered changing it back. Wanna guess the Nevada results and who ever's closest gets to pick my replacement? I'll keep it for at least 2 weeks.

I think it'll be 50.8-49.2 Sanders.

Sanders 52 Clinton 48.

Additional predictions;

Harry Reid finds a horse head in his bed for convincing Obama to run in 2008.

Bernie has a great run at the craps table and decides maybe this capitalism thing isn't half bad.

O'Malley announces his withdrawal from the race feeling nobody paid attention last caucus.

Jim Webb kills a man in Reno just to watch him die
and to awkwardly bring it up later in a public forum.
 

docbon

Member

Crocodile

Member
Where does this idea that Bernie would get frazzled come from? He's held his own against Clinton and she's a great debater. Trump has yet to show any ability to debate well outside of his response to Cruz's "New York values" gaffe.

I mean I don't buy the narrative that Bernie instantly collapses under the intense spiritual pressure of Demon King Trump but the fire that will becoming from Trump and the GOP (which will begrudgingly back him if he's the nominee I feel) will be orders of magnitude hotter than anything Hilary & friends will dish out.
 
I need a new avatar guys. I got this one for real pic January and haven't bothered changing it back. Wanna guess the Nevada results and who ever's closest gets to pick my replacement? I'll keep it for at least 2 weeks.

I think it'll be 50.8-49.2 Sanders.

420 Sanders, 69 Clinton

52-48 in favor of the Butcher of Benghazi
 

royalan

Member
She could have chosen to let others make the argument re: her womanhood for her, but instead, she chose to take it head on and make being a woman a central part of why people should find her appealing as a candidate. Calling this out as cynical pandering to deflect from her lackluster record is completely fair game.

Do you remember 2008, particularly the beginning of her campaign when she was noticeably avoiding mentioning the fact that she was a woman and got criticized by pundits for it?
 
Highlight raised taxes, socialism, and his his trips back in the 1980s and attacks on Reagan and you give the Republicans the presidency.

Here's the thing...

How many times would you have already been wrong by the time we get to a Sanders v. Trump race?

"Hillary is insurmountable." Hmm...maybe?
"Trump is a clown and he'll be destroyed early." Hmm...not yet.
"Hillary has blacks, browns, and women on her side." Hmm...but not young blacks, browns, or women.

See what I mean? Your attitude is the same one that has already been very wrong.
 

benjipwns

Banned
I didn't bet because I wasn't sure if you meant before or after Hillary steals it with her superdelegates through Constitutional loopholes the founders installed.
 
NEVADA Caucuses
GOP presidential preference:
Trump 45%
Jesus
Rubio 19
Cruz 17
Carson 7
Kasich 5
Bush 1
Undecided 4%
(CNN/ORC Poll, 2/10-15)


Democratic presidential preference:
Clinton 48%
Sanders 47%
Undecided 5%
(CNN/ORC Poll, 2/10-15)

tiiiiiiiiiight
 
I didn't bet, but if ivy or Holmes win, I'm going to suggest they go with risqué version of current avatar. For science.

AvatarQuote.jpg

NEVADA
GOP presidential preference:
Trump 45%
Rubio 19
Cruz 17
Carson 7
Kasich 5
Bush 1
(CNN/ORC Poll, 2/10-15)

NEVADA
Democratic presidential preference:
Clinton 48%
Sanders 47%
(CNN/ORC Poll, 2/10-15)

About as expected on the dem side, but Bush registering at 1% makes me want to cry tears of joy :')
 

CCS

Banned
NEVADA
GOP presidential preference:
Donald "Maybe it says he's a Muslim" Trump 45%
Rubio 19
Cruz 17
Carson 7
Kasich 5
Bush 1
(CNN/ORC Poll, 2/10-15)


Democratic presidential preference:
Clinton 48%
Sanders 47%
(CNN/ORC Poll, 2/10-15)

Would we expect Nevada to bias slightly to either Clinton or Sanders due to how the caucus process there works?
 
I thought we weren't getting anymore polling?
Curious about cross-tabs.
Would we expect Nevada to bias slightly to either Clinton or Sanders due to how the caucus process there works?
I'd say caucuses favor strong organisational structures, but I don't know who has the advantage there. Presumably Clinton.
 

Brinbe

Member
Wow Nevada is gonna be big for Bernie. A win there would really help him in SC and beyond. I'll say that Clinton pulls it off though.

On the GOP side, Trump is gonna be the nominee. No question at this point
 

CCS

Banned
I thought we weren't getting anymore polling?
Curious about cross-tabs.

I'd say caucuses favor strong organisational structures, but I don't know who has the advantage there. Presumably Clinton.

That's what I was thinking, been reading mixed things about both candidates organisation there.
 
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