Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
The Comeback Kid only 26 points behind? Get Politico on the phone!
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada
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The Comeback Kid only 26 points behind? Get Politico on the phone!
shinra-bansho
Member
From what I recall reading, the Sanders campaign is definitely outspending, but that's on the airwaves. The Clinton campaign was there earlier, but both are supposed to have a noticeable presence now. I think her organisation has been why her burn rate has been high for a long time, while Sanders has only more recently become flushed with cash.
The timing of the caucuses may favour Clinton.
Also, I'm not sure how the at-large caucus locations come into play either.
The timing of the caucuses may favour Clinton.
Also, I'm not sure how the at-large caucus locations come into play either.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
For what it's worth, RCP's polling aggregate for the Iowa caucuses had Clinton up 4 points going into caucus day, but she won by .2
It can be argued that Nevada's caucus being on a Saturday at 11am hurts Bernie.
Then again, it can also be argued that Bernie's momentum from NH going into this hurts Clinton.
In other words, it all comes down to voter turnout. Surprise!
Black Republican
Member
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-...y-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2323
Quinnipiac Nationals
Clinton 44%
Sanders 42%
Undecided 11%
Trump 39%
Rubio 19 %
Cruz 18%
Kasich 6%
Carson 4%
Bush 4%
Undecided 9%
Quinnipiac Nationals
Clinton 44%
Sanders 42%
Undecided 11%
Trump 39%
Rubio 19 %
Cruz 18%
Kasich 6%
Carson 4%
Bush 4%
Undecided 9%
For me turnout has now got to the stage where it no longer sounds like a real word.
Before panicing - this is virtually unchanged since the last Quinnipiac poll
Also Nevada gonna be good
neurosisxeno
Member
I see Clinton taking SC by about 15 points, but a win in Nevada could lead to a good Super Tuesday. At that point Sanders would have won 2, essentially tied 1, and lost in the fourth. It's probably best case scenario for him--other than if he had won Iowa.
EDIT: That Quinnipiac Poll had some interesting points; "The Democratic gender gap is shrinking as women back Clinton over Sanders 47 - 41 percent while men back Sanders 44 - 40 percent." That's big. Also, Clinton only edges Sanders out among Non-whites 55/30 while Sanders has the edge among whites 50/38 which is surprising. Also, Bernie's favorables are insane compared to Clinton, he has 80%+ favorability and single digit unfavorability among all Democrats/Democratic-leaning voters interviewed, compared to Clinton who has a 70/20 split.
EDIT 2: "Would you say Bernie Sanders cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?" Among Liberals, 99% Yes, 1% No.
Start cartoon_soldiering!
Shit, wished I'd guessed the either way on Nevada polling. Oh well might still be right with that undecided number.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Why the hell not. Nevada was supposed to be Clinton firewall.
You just wagered that they were 1 point apart. Poll comes in showing them one point apart and you have a freakout. So which is it-- disingenuousness or cognitive dissonance? I'm fairly convinced you are making these low effort freak out posts now just to get under my skin.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
I really hope the dems don't decide to jump of a cliff together
Cesare Borgia
Banned
"Criticized by pundits" is such an empty phrase. I'd imagine a handful of pundits may have criticized her but not enough to make it a noteworthy issue. I could argue I remember pundits criticizing her for constantly bringing gender up or making asinine accusations about sexism. It's a meaningless point.
Hillary has struggled in both campaigns with identity politics. She seems to be surrounded by people who are stuck in the past and nearly all of her appeals have not worked. Perhaps the most prominent example of this was the Hispanic grandma nonsense. You could argue it was a dumb but harmful case which was blown out of proportion. But to me it's an example of how Clinton's camp thinks about identity, and how bad they are at pandering.
Obama didn't have to remind people he was black. He simply was black, and everyone got it. And his outreach to black people was pretty natural and well done. Hillary is struggling right now with young women voters because her appeals are hollow. She can't explain why she'd be a better president for woman than Sanders or Obama yet she wants to insinuate otherwise. And her surrogates' comments about women owing Hillary their support certainly doesn't help. She should be thankful republicans are imploding because she's looking rather weak right now.
cartoon_soldier
Member
I am trying to set lower expectations for myself, but seeing a poll back it up is disheartening to see. With a SC vacancy on the line I don't want Sanders to have any kind of momentum going into SC and super Tuesday.
What time does the caucus end on Saturday? This race is going to be so tight. If Hillary loses she really needs to give Plouffe and Axelrod a call. Do itttt
Also Killer Mike is so annoying sometimes.
At this point will Sanders folks even vote for Hillary if she wins the nom?
Also Killer Mike is so annoying sometimes.
That's kind of where it appears to be heading
At this point will Sanders folks even vote for Hillary if she wins the nom?
Coriolanus
Banned
Half want Bern to lose nevada just so i can start reading poligaf again without all the freakouts.
Needs to happen so fucking bad. Still doubt that Don would dare to go full anti-semite, tho
We keeps telling you she a horrible campaigner and you refuse to truly accept it, is what happens.
So you saying you want black people to be quiet?
Needs to happen so fucking bad. Still doubt that Don would dare to go full anti-semite, tho
We keeps telling you she a horrible campaigner and you refuse to truly accept it, is what happens.
So you saying you want black people to be quiet?
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
According to this video, the doors close at 12 pm. Not sure how long it takes to tabulate results after that, though.
shinra-bansho
Member
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVZh4WcdC3s
I think they stand around in groups like Iowa. And in ties, they draw cards. For serious.
Coriolanus
Banned
That's where it starts, yes. Once that effort fails? Superdelegates against the wall, and then Bern's positions on gun control will make more sense.
Black Republican
Member
hopefully better than Iowa, oh lawd
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
The former, from my understanding. Should be more streamlined than Iowa, though, because there isn't going to be any screaming at O'Malley supporters to join a particular side.
Black Republican said:
Unless Nevada is as close as Iowa, it shouldn't really matter. Iowa could've been called a lot earlier if the state hadn't come down to a 2/10 of a percent differential.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Besides the fact sanders is an electoral liability I just am frustrated clinton cant attack him for not really being interested in foreign policy.
Frankly that frightens me. I can't even imagine sanders ordering the bin laden mission, troop movements or responding to a crisis in SE Aisa, Eastern Europe or a terrorist attack. But it seems dem primary voters just don't care
Frankly that frightens me. I can't even imagine sanders ordering the bin laden mission, troop movements or responding to a crisis in SE Aisa, Eastern Europe or a terrorist attack. But it seems dem primary voters just don't care
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Dope raps tho.
More like independents don't care. ^_^
Coriolanus
Banned
You do realize that the exact opposite probably also frightens a ton of people, yes? That is, hills readily and cheerily doing allathat;
Aside from the BL mission. That was totes cool. Outside of the whole probable murderate on sight bit.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
That people on the left have a problem with assassinating bin laden is mind boggling.
And yes I understand people fear a hawkish policy (never mind Clinton was part of obamas policy and Sanders isn't promising a radical change with that).
I just frankly think something like the 3am call add rings true. Someone attacks the US Sanders is gonna ask the joint chief if they have a super PAC
teruterubozu
Member
Dems rarely weigh their votes on foreign policy. Conservatives get into it because of the fearmongering.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
So I was wondering, which non-politician's endorsement would matter as much in 2016 as Oprah's did in 2008? Obviously, Oprah's would still carry a lot of weight but I think her influence has diminished somewhat since then, having ended her show and what not.
I feel like Jon Stewart's might carry some weight... idunno. Media seems a lot more fragmented and compartmentalized today.
I feel like Jon Stewart's might carry some weight... idunno. Media seems a lot more fragmented and compartmentalized today.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Obama won largely on Clinton's Iraq war vote
shinra-bansho
Member
Looking at NV cross-tabs, Trump wins handily on any issues questions with the exception of social issues, where others get closer. Best represents Republicans is a bit more divided too. He basically wins all demo groups.
Clinton wins by double digits on most issues questions (healthcare, race relations, immigration, FP) and electability. The main big ticket issue she ties with Sanders on handling is the economy, as well as best represents Democrats, and loses slightly on "help the middle class."
Women break for her 54/38, registered Dems break for her 53/41, older (55+) break for her 69/26. Under 55 go for Sanders 56/38.
Clinton wins by double digits on most issues questions (healthcare, race relations, immigration, FP) and electability. The main big ticket issue she ties with Sanders on handling is the economy, as well as best represents Democrats, and loses slightly on "help the middle class."
Women break for her 54/38, registered Dems break for her 53/41, older (55+) break for her 69/26. Under 55 go for Sanders 56/38.
GregLombardi
Member
So when do we start talking about the fact that the Republicans only legit strategy to beat Hillary Clinton is to have Republicans band together with Dems in the Democratic primaries and confuse Democrats into beating themselves by nominating Bernie Sanders? Because that is exactly what is happening.
Coriolanus
Banned
That anyone at all doesn't is mind boggling. These powers will not be limited to liberal presidencies, and i'd much rather that the dems never indulged in such areas, so that they can't be easily countered when they oppose a future republican abusing those same powers.
plus yall werent at war with pakistan.
Someone attacks the US, i hope that the person goes "who?" and clearly looks at the data and devises a proper plan of action instead of just trying to show that 'Merica's still got a big ole stick it aint afraid to swing none.
teruterubozu
Member
That was just one of many factors. Clearly we're seeing right now why people have trouble with Clinton, and it's not just Iraq.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
The age gap in support really amazes me. The fact that Bernie has been winning 18-30 by ~70 point margins while Clinton has been winning 65+ by pretty wide gulfs as well is crazy to me. It's amazing how wide the ideological divide is.
The republicans have spent the last 12 months (arguably longer) burning down their party. The entirety of the rank-and-file republican machine has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into a candidate that, as of today, is polling at 1% in Nevada while getting curb stomped by a guy with 0 loyalty to the party, and their runner-up is even more despised than Trump. Let's not pretend that they could orchestrate something like that. Hell, they just might obstruct Obama's SC nomination all the way up to the GE too, further immolating their election chances. I feel like I need to put out daily reminders that, aside from roughly half of the republican party, Donald Trump is a punchline. It doesn't matter how centrist he shifts, everyone already has an opinion of him and outside of his existing base it's that he's a joke supported by racists.
The email thing is such a non story. Previous SoS did the same damn thing and Kerry acknowledged there are problems. It has less to do with Hillary and more to do with the state department and how it handles secure communications across at least two fundamentally different administrations.
The GOP successfully tapped into Democratic voter paranoia.
teruterubozu
Member
I wasn't even talking about that. Just general things that stretch back to 2008 and further back. It certainly wasn't just her Iraq vote that she lost to Obama.
shinra-bansho
Member
Probably Ellen, based on her Q scores. 85 awareness, 30 likability. Her daily show reaches a lot of people. Whoopi Goldberg is actually up there too. 86, 24.
Stewart is 55, 16.
Yes but the email thing is just gravy. It's a smear campaign and it just makes people who already had reservations about her feel even more turned off. Talk about letting the GOP get away with it...
GOP isn't in a state to organize anything so sophisticated at the moment, and even if it were frankly the Democrats would deserve it if they allowed that to cost them the election.
GregLombardi
Member
Do you remember how Romney won the first debate against Obama in 2012? If Trump and Bernie are the ones squaring off, it will be a Trump win for all the debates. Bernie cannot handle that man, and yes, Clinton can.
I hope for the sake of our future I am wrong.
The country cant afford this mistake, the American people do not deserve it even if the democrats do.
disastermouse
Banned
But they wouldn't be able to get away with it if she didn't come across as sketchy as hell.
Hillary is a liability and she'll lose to any of the Republicans in the lead right now.
She could beat Jeb(!) because....Jeb(!).
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Romney was uncharismatic to the point of being awkward, but he was never Donald Trump. Most voters were just gathering opinions of Romney as the general election kicked into gear. People have considered Trump an obnoxious blowhard, and now a racist obnoxious blowhard, for 20 years.
Personally, I'd like to see how Trump even handles a 1v1 debate against Cruz or Rubio before we talk about how he'd do against Bernie or Hillary.
I don't think that matters. Bernie is appealing to a group of people that don't traditionally identify as democrats and value authenticity and honesty. Hillary has issues with everyone basically outside of the democratic base. I'm a huge Clinton fan and have been since 08, but I'm ok with Bernie if he proves he can turn people out.
It's kind of ironic. If Clinton won in 08 and Obama was up now, can you imagine how easy he'd sail to victory? He'd unite his coalition with Hilary's coalition and crush trump like 70/30. Hindsight but I felt like hillarys time was 08.
Killer Mike's full speech for anyone who cares:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&t=33m12s&v=6bndGVH2mfY
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&t=33m12s&v=6bndGVH2mfY
Poodlestrike
Banned
Way, way further back. Hillary's problems stem from the Right's raging hateboner that started during the Clinton administration, which led to such a propagation of FUD that people have bought into it. That's where most of the stuff like her honesty numbers comes from.
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