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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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Gruco

Banned
Obama didn't sound so hot in 2008 either, but he surrounded himself with the best people he could and used his speaking ability and intelligence to make it work. Not going to claim Sanders is Obama-level, but I don't think he will struggle as much as people think.
Obama cared about foreign policy. He was on the Foreign Relations committee while on the Senate. Hitting Hillary's left flank on foreign policy was a centerpiece of his campaign. He was miles ahead of where Bernie is now in 2007.
 

Bowdz

Member
Obama surrounded himself with people with experience in various matter on day one. You can bet your ass Obama was studying under his advisors.

Bernie still doesn't even have a Foreign Policy Advisory group within his campaign, something every major political campaign does. It is way too late to suddenly get a group of people you can trust on foreign policy and get brushed up because you look weak, and have credible plans.

Agreed.

It's important to remember that anytime Obama was deficient on a given issue, he would study his ass off to improve his understanding of it. Remember the GE financial crisis in 08. Both McCain and Obama went to Washington to meet with the White House, but Obama, at least according to Game Change, was spending 1-2 hours per night talking to Hank Paulson to understand the crisis, he was talking to Ben Bernanke almost daily, he was talking to various wall street CEOs (gasp), and he was getting what Halperin called an accelerated PhD in Economics and Finance from his advisors everyday.

Bernie's lack of expertise on a given issue is not the problem. No candidate has a complete knowledge of every subject. What is concerning is the notion that Bernie has not made any substantive improvement on foreign policy in the course of this primary. The desire to learn and to shore up weaknesses is important.
 

Hammer24

Banned
He hasn't been the subject of many attack ads

NY Times: " has been the target of more attack ads than any other candidate — more than $20 million worth since the first week in December"


1) He has done nothing in his time in the Senate
2) He has the worst voting record of anyone in the Senate
3) All his policies favor the rich
4) He wants an instant war with Iran

1) like most 1st term senators, right?
2) comparable to Obama 2007/8, right?
3 & 4 are catering to his base, right?
 
Your daily reminder that Ted Cruz is a truly horrible person who should not be in any sort of elected office:

According to Beardsley, the two were having an “intellectual debate” about abortion one day, when she disclosed that her mother had once ended a pregnancy. “I remember telling him [that] my mother had two children, they really couldn’t afford to have another child, they really would have struggled. And it was a very difficult, painful decision for my mother.” At that point, she said, “he became vicious and made it personal,” eventually telling her, in his loving way, “that my mother was going to hell and was a whore.”

http://theslot.jezebel.com/heres-what-happens-when-you-try-and-track-down-a-ted-cr-1752337625
 
Your daily reminder that Ted Cruz is a truly horrible person who should not be in any sort of elected office:

According to Beardsley, the two were having an “intellectual debate” about abortion one day, when she disclosed that her mother had once ended a pregnancy. “I remember telling him [that] my mother had two children, they really couldn’t afford to have another child, they really would have struggled. And it was a very difficult, painful decision for my mother.” At that point, she said, “he became vicious and made it personal,” eventually telling her, in his loving way, “that my mother was going to hell and was a whore.”

http://theslot.jezebel.com/heres-what-happens-when-you-try-and-track-down-a-ted-cr-1752337625

I wish one of John McCain's younger staffers would just beat the shit out of Cruz. Would be so nice to see.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
NY Times: " has been the target of more attack ads than any other candidate — more than $20 million worth since the first week in December"

That favorability poll was general election voters from across the country. Attack ads have NOT been running across the country--only in primary states, as far as I know.

1) like most 1st term senators, right?
2) comparable to Obama 2007/8, right?
3 & 4 are catering to his base, right?

All of them cater to the base. That was what I was saying. It will be a huge problem in the general election if properly targeted.

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I wish one of John McCain's younger staffers would just beat the shit out of Cruz. Would be so nice to see.

My guess is McCain would do that himself.
 
Rubio's comments so far in the primary:

"I am against rape exceptions for abortions."
"I will appoint Supreme Court Justices that will annul all gay marriages."
"I will cut the capital gains tax to zero."

He hasn't been attacked on any of these stances very much, but they're all poison in a general election.
 

Hammer24

Banned
That favorability poll was general election voters from across the country. Attack ads have NOT been running across the country--only in primary states, as far as I know.

Yeah, I was just going against a general statement, that he has not been attacked. Which he was, and thus far he was able to weather it.
Look, even Christie tumbles even more since he notched his rethoric up a notch against him.

All of them cater to the base. That was what I was saying. It will be a huge problem in the general election if properly targeted.

I´m not so sure. He´s two decades younger than whoever gets the Dem nomination, so you could maybe attack him on inexperience.
But otherwise he´s a minority candidate, so you have to be very careful how you go after him.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Rubio's comments so far in the primary:

"I am against rape exceptions for abortions."
"I will appoint Supreme Court Justices that will annul all gay marriages."
"I will cut the capital gains tax to zero."

He hasn't been attacked on any of these stances very much, but they're all poison in a general election.

Bingo. And there are more debates left where he will assuredly be attacked more than before, so expect more of this.
 

Effect

Member
It's impossible for him to completely avoid establishment Democrats, but I think it would be really interesting to see. I'm not on his campaign so I don't know what they would do--in all likelihood they might not even know what they would do.

Even if he went to someone for help or input who would be willing to even help his campaign at this point? It's looking like he's burned bridges with a number of the ones higher up lately.
 
Even if he went to someone for help or input who would be willing to even help his campaign at this point? It's looking like he's burned bridges with a number of the ones higher ups lately.

If Sanders gets the nom Democrats will forget about a lot of things when it comes time to staff the White House. Lets be realistic here.
 
If Sanders gets the nom Democrats will forget about a lot of things when it comes time to staff the White House. Lets be realistic here.

Some of them will and some of them won't. If the furor surrounding Cruz has taught me anything, it's that politics is a much more personal game than I'd previously assumed.
 

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
Does his logo subtly evoke a swastika to anyone else? That's not me being cute or going "Cruz is a Nazi" or anything, I just can't unsee it

I saw the same thing, although it reminded me more of a Basque Lauburu symbol.
TEM7eY7.jpg
 
Rubio's comments so far in the primary:

"I am against rape exceptions for abortions."
"I will appoint Supreme Court Justices that will annul all gay marriages."
"I will cut the capital gains tax to zero."

He hasn't been attacked on any of these stances very much, but they're all poison in a general election.
He's got the Romney curse. Even if you would believe him to be more moderate than the others, he's got to say crazy things to get far in the primary, which is going to kill him in the general.
 

Hammer24

Banned
He's got the Romney curse. Even if you would believe him to be more moderate than the others, he's got to say crazy things to get far in the primary, which is going to kill him in the general.

On the the other hand, he´s basically a (CNN rumored) Romney endorsement away from winning NH, and effectively forcing all other moderates out. Which would mean a three way fight with Trump and Cruz, allowing him to take more moderate positions pretty early.
 
On the the other hand, he´s basically a (CNN rumored) Romney endorsement away from winning NH, and effectively forcing all other moderates out. Which would mean a three way fight with Trump and Cruz, allowing him to take more moderate positions pretty early.

He better get on that shit ASAP then.

I still don't understand why the party allows non-representative states like Iowa and New Hampshire at the front of it's primary season. You'd think major states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida would be where you want to start so you have a candidate that represents more of the "mainstream" of the country.

I'm sure there is an explanation and I'm too tired and lazy to find it myself, but that seems silly to me.
 
Rubio still has that sheen on him. So far no one has been able to peel it. Trump and Jeb may have scratched it here and there, and Mgyn Kelly did the best she could on the immigration bill. But by and large it is intact.

Christie is just useless and Kasich's potted plant gambit should disqualify him by now.
I think only Ted Cruz has the knack to peel that Rubio sheen off. He really got under Rubio's skin in one of the debates. Bring that fire and brimstone.
 

Hammer24

Banned
He better get on that shit ASAP then.

As far as I understood that CNN piece, Romney doesn´t want to throw his network of donors and campainers behind someone that might lose out. I guess it depends on Saturdays debate, if he throws in with Rubio on Sunday/Monday.

I think only Ted Cruz has the knack to peel that Rubio sheen off. He really got under Rubio's skin in one of the debates. Bring that fire and brimstone.

Yeah, Saturdays debate might become an all-against-one affair.
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Right to Rise puhlease
No pizza attack Rubes
Why are you so bad
Haiku'd that for for you.

Mini documentary on the Dean Scream I liked.
1) like most 1st term senators, right?
2) comparable to Obama 2007/8, right?

3 & 4 are catering to his base, right?
Obama and Rubio kind of have a similar narrative:
Five Thirty Eight said:
A mediocre high school athlete of non-American parentage leaves his palm-tree-lined hometown to bounce between multiple colleges, eventually earning a political science degree and attending law school.

He begins his political career in an area dominated by an urban machine. After serving eight years in a state legislature and lecturing at a local college, he decides to launch a long-shot campaign for the U.S. Senate. His intra-party opposition starts out with far more money and includes a vaunted statewide official. But he excites partisans fed up with the status quo in the primary and capitalizes on a bizarrely fractured opposition in the fall, becoming an overnight celebrity in his party.

He frequently talks about his parents’ dreams while speaking at party get-togethers, but he grows restless in his first term and, like most freshmen, compiles few notable legislative accomplishments. A few years into the job, his party retakes the Senate majority. Nevertheless, just a few months later, he launches an uphill presidential bid while still in his mid-40s.

At first, pundits dismiss his prospects because his party’s front-runner is an immediate family member of the previous president, with the ability to raise $100 million and roots in his home state. But his raw oratorical talent and a pervasive anti-dynasty sentiment help him win a drawn-out, seemingly endless primary slog.

In November, his opponent is more than two decades older and had lost a race for the White House eight years before. He capitalizes on the nation’s mood for change after a two-term president of the other party, claiming a historic victory.

This is the story of Barack Obama, but it could also be the story of Marco Rubio.
 
Agreed.

It's important to remember that anytime Obama was deficient on a given issue, he would study his ass off to improve his understanding of it. Remember the GE financial crisis in 08. Both McCain and Obama went to Washington to meet with the White House, but Obama, at least according to Game Change, was spending 1-2 hours per night talking to Hank Paulson to understand the crisis, he was talking to Ben Bernanke almost daily, he was talking to various wall street CEOs (gasp), and he was getting what Halperin called an accelerated PhD in Economics and Finance from his advisors everyday.

Bernie's lack of expertise on a given issue is not the problem. No candidate has a complete knowledge of every subject. What is concerning is the notion that Bernie has not made any substantive improvement on foreign policy in the course of this primary. The desire to learn and to shore up weaknesses is important.

I hope, for Bernie's sake, that he comes up with some more detailed ideas for the debate on the 11th.
 
Quinnipac was probably the most accurate Iowa pollster, even more so than Selzer, if we consider that Sanders most probably won the popular vote.

Calling them bad pollsters is disingenuous when they did a better job than even Selzer.
 
I need a poll today in which the Donald takes a hit on his NH numbers, so I can dump the Predict shares I bought. Stupid me, I thought he'd have a slump and not a boost after Iowa.

He did, but it happened very quickly. He went from about 84c pre-Iowa to high 60s immediately after, then settled around 70 and slowly increasing since then. You must have bought in too late.
 

Holmes

Member
Not sure what's more embarrassing, that Quinnipiac poll or Sanders trying to have an actual discussion about foreign policy.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Quinnipac was probably the most accurate Iowa pollster, even more so than Selzer, if we consider that Sanders most probably won the popular vote.

Calling them bad pollsters is disingenuous when they did a better job than even Selzer.
CLOCKEDT
 
Isn't the important point not the raw numbers but the relative change from the previous poll assuming the methodology didn't change?
 
Not sure what's more embarrassing, that Quinnipiac poll or Sanders trying to have an actual discussion about foreign policy.

He wasnt that embarrasing. The substance of his message was the correct one, he just fails at raw knowledge (he can improve, I hope?) and delivery. The media didnt even care. Look at the headlines everywhere, no biggie.

And the public even less, it seems

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...han-one/?postshare=7951454647411281&tid=ss_tw

Theres no "why bernie sucks so much at foreign policy?" search question, sadly.


more like BERNEDT
 

Krowley

Member
If we consider this unproven hypothetical, Quinnipiac is the new gold standard.

The last Quinnipiac Iowa poll had Sanders up by 3, so at the very least they were equal to selzer. On the republican side they had it almost exactly like Selzer.

Of course national polls are a whole different thing. But Quinnipiac did well in Iowa. Certainly much better than ppp, who had Clinton up by 8.
 
He wasnt that embarrasing. The substance of his message was the correct one, he just fails at raw knowledge (he can improve, I hope?) and delivery. The media didnt even care. Look at the headlines everywhere, no biggie.

And the public even less, it seems

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...han-one/?postshare=7951454647411281&tid=ss_tw

Theres no "why bernie sucks so much at foreign policy?" search question, sadly.



more like BERNEDT

Lol, I guess people searching a candidate they don't know about means they won. Also Bernie almost always get more searches or whatever jump some type of favorably on the social media.
 
I really don't know what the solution in Afghanistan is though... It's been invaded and at war near continuously since 1978, the Taliban are evil and will wipe away all progress that women have made in the country, but the current government seems to be such a failure that the Taliban have gotten back 30% of the country.
 
Quinnipac was probably the most accurate Iowa pollster, even more so than Selzer, if we consider that Sanders most probably won the popular vote.

Calling them bad pollsters is disingenuous when they did a better job than even Selzer.

Quinnipiac as a pollster is fine, but even good pollsters have outlier results now and then. That's a very VERY large drop with no real corresponding event to cause it. Carson had a similarly huge nationwide drop, but you could easily point to the paris and san bernadino attacks exposing him on foreign policy for this.

Given that morning consult doesn't show any similar drop, I would tag this one as an outlier as well until we see a pollster show up with results that corroborate it.
 
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