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[cartoon_soldier]

Nate talking about Trump doing poorly with late-deciders.

The problem? He also did poorly with late-deciders in New Hampshire.

Yea, it just shows that Trump has a ceiling. Which is why the big field helps him a lot.

 

[Makai]

Debbie says super delegates are there for racial diversity.

 

[User 406]

I sure hope the SC primary is contentious enough that all the little racist avatars on The Guardian's tracker have plenty of opportunities to come out and show us their lines. Also, I need Carson to call for a moment of silence and then fall asleep while painting a county, and he should miss his cue to show up. And I really hope Kasich has convincing pixel butthole lips.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Nate talking about Trump doing poorly with late-deciders.

The problem? He also did poorly with late-deciders in New Hampshire.

Its may not hurt him here but I do think it re-enforces the fact that basically no one likes him outside of his core supporters.

 

[kingkitty]

rubio has this

gg

the dream is dead

 

[VendettaRed07]

Debbie says super delegates are there for racial diversity.

I saw that too.

Someone help me because I'm really confused

 

[danm999]

Well I'll eat crow and say I called Nevada wrong because I thought it'd go slightly Bernie.

I also said this seems like very bad news for Bernie's campaign because without Nevada I do not know what the next Bernie win will be at this point. My best guess is sometime in March at Michigan or Ohio or something and that's not good.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

http://www.theonion.com/article/clinton-credits-nevada-victory-inescapable-pitch-b-52396

Onion in Clinton's pocket!

 

[A Human Becoming]

They are not. This was Bernie's best chance to change the narrative that he can't win in non-white states. And getting close isn't good enough. It's a loss. He will get blown out in SC and on nearly every southern state on Super Tuesday. He had to do something to show nonwhite voters he could win. He didn't.

While I haven't seen the actual demographic numbers how he performed with minorities in Nevada, I think you've already pointed out he could not have done well enough based on location results.

This very well may have been his last chance to show he could swing minorities.

 

[Effect]

"And now on to Super Tuesday!"

Yeah, Bernie, aren't you forgetting something?

Wasn't watching but did he actually just ignore South Carolina?

 

[NeoXChaos]

Well I'll eat crow and say I called Nevada wrong because I thought it'd go slightly Bernie.

I also said this seems like very bad news for Bernie's campaign because without Nevada I do not know what the next Bernie win will be at this point. My best guess is sometime in March at Michigan or Ohio or something and that's not good.

Minnesota, Massachusetts, Colorado and obviously Vermont

 

[Suikoguy]

Considering the narrative as recent as Iowa was "he'll get blown out in NV and SC", Id say he closed the gap decently well. Obviously a win was ideal, but the results are encouraging.

Polls for Caucuses are useless. Who knows what lead he had or did not have, or vice versa for Hillary.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Not a big break for Rubio in late deciders, though early exit polls these are.

 

[Teggy]

Wasn't watching but did he actually just ignore South Carolina?

Correct. And I wonder what his line about "we were down by x points x weeks ago" will be when he gets clobbered there.

 

[Putzweg]

A win in South Carolina, coupled with a New Hampshire blowout and a second-place finish in Iowa, would establish Donald Trump as the front-runner for the GOP nomination.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/...arolina-gop-front-runner-219502#ixzz40ktAEC2k

Politicos latest piece is a real beauty...

Trump, possible front runner? Well I'm shocked!

 

[Thunder Monkey]

(This is not why #ImWithHer)

But I just realized with some certainty that a major political party is going to nominate a woman at the top of their ticket.

It shouldn't feel monumental, but it does.

Hillary might not be perfect, but good God it is so way past time!

Democrats just keeping making those social inroads.

 

[Black Republican]

Not a big break for Rubio in late deciders, though early exit polls these are.

jeb not even mentioned, hes so dead

 

[Plinko]

Not a big break for Rubio in late deciders, though early exit polls these are.

My problem with the "late-deciders" poll is the lack of definition. How late is "late?"

 

[danm999]

Minnesota, Massachusetts, Colorado and obviously Vermont

That'll all happen on Super Tuesday when Clinton is slaughtering him in bigger states with more delegates. I don't think the optics will be favourable.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Well I'll eat crow and say I called Nevada wrong because I thought it'd go slightly Bernie.

I also said this seems like very bad news for Bernie's campaign because without Nevada I do not know what the next Bernie win will be at this point. My best guess is sometime in March at Michigan or Ohio or something and that's not good.

There are some favorable largely white caucus states. And New England is relatively fertile ground.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

My problem with the "late-deciders" poll is the lack of definition. How late is "late?"

My understanding is in last week or so.

 

[titiklabingapat]

Polls for Caucuses are useless. Who knows what lead he had or did not have, or vice versa for Hillary.

I was just about to post this. It should tell you something when most polling outfits skip the state.

 

[Owzers]

Hah, already hyping that third place Rubio finish as a win. Never drop out Jeb, you can't let Marco do this.

 

[Plinko]

My understanding is in last week or so.

Were they all undecided in the polls?

 

[User 463088]

While I haven't seen the actual demographic numbers how he performed with minorities in Nevada, I think you've already pointed out he could not have done well enough based on location results.

This very well may have been his last chance to show he could swing minorities.

Even if we give him that 8 point lead, which I think is suspect, that's not enough. If she got within 2 among white voters, lost Latino voters by 8, but won AA by 56 points...he's screwed. He needed this win. He really, really did. I'm not throwing him under the bus or anything, but he needed to win here.

 

[Suikoguy]

I was just about to post this. It should tell you something when most polling outfits skip the state.

Yes, I swear the only reason they polled Iowa is it's "first state" status.

 

[Chris R]

How nice of NBC to drag Brian Williams out of whatever hole they buried him in.

 

[Rafa=FedKilla]

Hah, already hyping that third place Rubio finish as a win. Never drop out Jeb, you can't let Marco do this.

Participation ribbon culture brah. It's why we don't have victories anymore.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Were they all undecided in the polls?

No, few pages back you can see that 45% of voters were late deciders. So those 45% broke that way.

 

[Plinko]

Hah, already hyping that third place Rubio finish as a win. Never drop out Jeb, you can't let Marco do this.

As long as Cruz is in, Rubio has an incredibly small chance of winning.

 

[Yoda]

1. Trump
2. Cruz
3. Rubio (really torn here, but I know for a fact SC leans Cruz more than Rubio, but I'm not sure the establishment circle jerk is enough to get him into 2nd)
4. Bush

Participation ribbon culture brah. It's why we don't have victories anymore.

Only for the privileged (in this case that means the Koch-class republicans like you). If Trump got 3rd everyone would scream about how they were right about him.

 

[Teggy]

Jeb has to at least stay in until Florida, correct? Or is it possible he will be shut out of the debates before then?

 

[danm999]

Not a big break for Rubio in late deciders, though early exit polls these are.

No, few pages back you can see that 45% of voters were late deciders. So those 45% broke that way.

For all the enthusiasm for Trump there appears to be some deep skepticism of him even in the GOP.

 

[Teggy]

30 seconds, hold on to your butts.

edit: and...we got nothing

 

[Makai]

Too close to call. Uh oh

 

[HylianTom]

Steve Kornacki
‏@SteveKornacki

SC exit -- white evangelicals (69% of electorate):

Trump 31%
Cruz 28%
Rubio 23%


===


PLEEEEEEEEASE HOLD.

 

[Tubie]

Please win Trump, please.

 

[Diablos]

1. Trump
2. Rubio
3. Cruz
4. Low energy

 

[Plinko]

I still see Rubio in third regardless of if Cruz or Trump win.

 

[sangreal]

Too close to call. Uh oh

Ruh oh

 

[danm999]

Who has lower energy Bush or Carson?

 

[Black Republican]

clinton 52.4
sanders 47.6

nearly 5 point spread

 

[Teggy]

Steve Kornacki
‏@SteveKornacki

SC exit -- white evangelicals (69% of electorate):

Trump 31%
Cruz 28%
Rubio 23%


===


PLEEEEEEEEASE HOLD.

How can 70% of the electorate be white evangelicals? Does evangelical mean anything besides "christian" anymore?

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Okay, I've got word from my internal source that the numbers just came in.

1. Trump - 80%
2. Cruz - 17%
3. Rubio - 2%

Spoiler

4. Vermin Supreme

- 1%

 

[Teggy]

Who has lower energy Bush or Carson?

You can ask Carson when he wakes up from his nap.

 

[danm999]

You can ask Carson when he wakes up from his nap.

He might tell a joke tho

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Steve Kornacki
‏@SteveKornacki

SC exit -- white evangelicals (69% of electorate):

Trump 31%
Cruz 28%
Rubio 23%


===


PLEEEEEEEEASE HOLD.

That is horrible for Cruz and good for Rubio.

 

[Wilsongt]

How can 70% of the electorate be white evangelicals? Does evangelical mean anything besides "christian" anymore?

This is South Carolina. Where you drive past 30+ churches in a two hour drive to myrtle beach.

 

[BoboBrazil]

I kind of feel bad for Jeb. He's probably the best candidate out of the republicans to actually run the country.

 

[Kangi]

This is South Carolina. Where you drive past 30+ churches in a two hour drive to myrtle beach.

Virtually every local church I came across today was doubling as a polling place. They were also all flanked by Trump signs.

Nothing will stop the evangelicals from turning out in droves.