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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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Texas is 145 proportional by state Senate districts.
With another 77 based on statewide result.

It's about 30% Hispanic/Latino as well, so it probably favours Sanders.
anigif_enhanced-buzz-24844-1386159010-5.gif
 
No idea what the media is going to do with themselves for the entire week. Both Nevada and Dems SC have been written off completely as Trump and Clinton wins and barely worth discussion beyond side mentions of specific demographics. Conversely, there's been minimal prep or buildup for Super Tuesday. Both races could (mathematically) be all but decided in only a week if we get a sweeps. For people who have been tripping over themselves to move onto the next event in the calendar for months and months and basically skip this week, you'd think they'd better hype what's coming after. CNN has a debate I know and, uh, that's about it?

Edit: This is finally that Telemundo debate the RNC threatened to cancel months ago?! And the biggest argument of the night was already going to be by Trump and Cruz vs Rubio on the Gang Of 8 immigration bill. Nice.
Would anybody really fucking care about this?

/EDM'er

Edit: I'm a tad drunk, and just realized this was probably sarcasm.
Of course no one would actually care. Just that one of the few things more terrifying than a President Rubio to me would be a President Rubio that had ever heard of any of the DJs I like. I might accidentally use a track he likes in a set and then never want to listen to it ever again. Dangerous times.
 
I think the media narrative for the week has settled on "Berned Out/Clinton Comeback." This will probably intensify after the weekend.

On the GOP side it's "Cruz/Rubio - who will be the Trumpslayer."
 

CCS

Banned
I think the media narrative for the week has settled on "Berned Out/Clinton Comeback." This will probably intensify after the weekend.

On the GOP side it's "Cruz/Rubio - who will be the Trumpslayer."

The media are fickle but not particularly bright. I love election time because it allows me to get good mileage out of this :p

735707
 

Cerium

Member
I think the media narrative for the week has settled on "Berned Out/Clinton Comeback." This will probably intensify after the weekend.

On the GOP side it's "Cruz/Rubio - who will be the Trumpslayer."
On the GOP side I'm beginning to see them lay the groundwork for Cruz's obituary. Third in South Carolina is devastating. That state is tailor made for him, and if he can't even come in second there, then where the hell is he supposed to win outside of Texas?

He absolutely needs a big Super Tuesday, and as long as Trump keeps on Trumping that's not going to happen.

It's a two man race with a dead Canadian walking.
 
Obama's are seriously the best first family of all time bar none - https://amp.twimg.com/v/549ad94b-1661-425e-97d8-1bd8f5a6b9af

Whenever people ask why I think Obama will be remembered as one of the GOAT Presidents, despite having a lot of ideological differences, this is the kinda stuff I think of. He honestly just seems like a really fucking nice guy. He speaks with command, he speaks well, and he has this charisma about him--even after 7 years in office--that I don't ever remember seeing for GWB or even Clinton, and certainly not from McCain, Romney, Gore, Kerry, or Dole.
 

Clefargle

Member
Actually in 2008 Obama won 23% of the white vote in Georgia. Probably even more in 2012. So it's not that bad. In contrast, 2% of the black vote went to McCain, lol.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/exitpolls/georgia.html

Edit:

Found a website breaking down racial voting numbers from presidential elections in 2008 & 2012

http://www.amren.com/features/2012/11/race-and-the-2012-election/

The worst is Mississippi :/

HOOOOOLY SHIT @ the comments section from that page. Here are some choice selections:

Excuse me, but I understand the income gap and as I live in the Northeast, I understand progressives – and I work. First of all, handing out entitlements to an ever growing population of amnesty seekers (and receivers) is not going to do much to fix the income gap. So, great idea Democrats – that’s your issue! Second, the white progressives I know constantly say disparaging things about white people – even though they produce things that white people consume (like novels they try to sell the NY publishers and cheese from little cheese shops they run in Brooklyn and plays about lesbians – yeah Mexicans are going to be flocking to that play). Still, they discuss endlessly about how whitey must be stopped. It’s been that way since I was in college in the late 70s and has remained so through graduate school and through my career in media. And so it shall be. They shall get their wish.
Indiana Guy
well, you are completely wrong, white progressives DO loathe “white” people. They steadfastly demonize anyone who identifies themselves as “white”. They steadfastly demonize anyone who dares mention that Whites have interests that need to be protected. As usual, you offer nothing but falsehood and empty rhetoric.
JohnEngelman
What you interpret as loathing for white people is more probably loathing for you and for people who think the way you do.
Gracchus123
I am particularly offended when people express hostility for Whites.
And the expression of hostility for Whites is pervasive in our society and around the world. In fact racial hatred toward Whites is legal, in fact encouraged, in the US. A “hate crime” prosecuted against a White is rare, but no so the reverse.
Tucker
Gracchus123
I am particularly offended when people express hostility for Whites.”
May I add that when this virulent, deep rooted, demonic and clearly psychopathic hatred and hostility motivates those who are afflicted with this festering cancer to use their political power and their enormous quantity of ill-gotten, usury-obtained wealth to bribe politicians of both political parties to enact legislation regarding immigration policy which are deliberately and maliciously designed to dispossess White European people as the majority population group of the nation that THEIR ANCESTORS built and then subjugate them and their descendents to being ruled by hate-filled, dangerous, violent prone, resentful, low IQ hoards of non-white parasitical aliens from every third world failure of a nation on this planet – then that behavior most certainly merits a far more passionate emotion (as well as a defensive response) than simply being ‘offended’.
May I suggest that John Engelman review his dual citizenship paperwork and passports and make sure they are in order?
After all, one never really knows when a hasty exit from the North American continent might become the most important item on one’s agenda.
David Ashton
Jews who criticize Zionism are often described by other Jews as “self-hating”. Gentile whites who criticize their own cultural heritage or oppose its intact perpetuation could be described as “white-loathing”. For a fraction of the evidence of its existence, see e.g. Pascal Bruckner, “The Tyranny of Guilt: An Essay on Western Masochism” (Princeton 2010). Tom Wolfe noted this attitude years ago in a satire on radical chic in posh-urban USA.
In Britain, we are still assured by both black and white leftists that “only whites can be racist”, originally a theme launched strongly by our Inner London Education Authority but which since spread like an ideological disease. Incidentally, Professor Dennis Dworkin of Nevada University wrote a book on the “intellectual” background, titled (wait for it, Mr Engelman) “Cultural Marxism in Postwar Britain” (Duke University Press, 1997). Again, read, mark, inwardly digest, and see what appetite you have for your birds’ nest soup.

http://profile.yahoo.com/A7A56K4AEJT3I5MD4VCE633KHY Caracal
‘I am particularly offended when people express hostility for Orientals and Jews.’
No kidding !
Your beloved mongols and fellow jews didn’t found the US nor the Western world. They have their own nations now and can go back there if they don’t like the racial hostility that always comes when foreigners are colonizing and/or trying to control someone else’s country.
As if mongols and jews would not “express hostility” if Whites were invading their countries en masse or were disproportionally represented in their governments and media ?
Talk about the pot calling the kettle black, HA HA HA !
 
On the GOP side I'm beginning to see them lay the groundwork for Cruz's obituary. Third in South Carolina is devastating. That state is tailor made for him, and if he can't even come in second there, then where the hell is he supposed to win outside of Texas?

He absolutely needs a big Super Tuesday, and as long as Trump keeps on Trumping that's not going to happen.

It's a two man race with a dead Canadian walking.

I keep hearing this about Cruz, but where the hell is Rubio winning?
 
I am trying to create a product about all of this and using the people that should be going for it in the end.

Luckily jeb was a low part of my ideas and not any main parts so I lucked out on that call an didnt get any work done so far on the jeb.

I haven't included sanders yet, I do have robio and cruz as a decent part while trump/hillary make up the biggest parts.

Am I doing it right, do I need to make sanders a bigger part in case he actually wins. Do I need to put my bet more on rubio or cruz? Either way, for now I think I am decently covered using trump as a main point even though he may not end up president it is ok.

I'd like some decent opinions on this. if you were to bank your product percentage wise today as to who will be popular and more known come election time

trump
sanders
hillary
rubio
cruz
jeb

how would you stack your percentages out of 100 percent?
 
Theoretically the West Coast. If he coalesces all of the anti-Trump vote together, the idea is that he can then give Trump a real fight.

So basically Rubio needs EVERYTHING to align for him before we can even begin to think about him winning a state? Isn't that....ridiculous?
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I hate that Twilight and 50 Shades are considered the "rivals" to Harry Potter.

Harry Potter has earned its place in literary canon with Chronicles of Narnia, Lord of the Rings etc. as enjoyable, whimsical fantasy. Children in fifty years will still be reading Harry Potter. Twilight is sexist, racist and borderline Mormon propaganda that no one will remember by that point.

Needless to say Rubio's metaphor is stupid... Harry weakened Voldemort by destroying his Horcruxes. Rubio is weakening Trump by letting him make more Horcruxes?

WaiT. Did you just trash 50 Shades? Are you mocking the Comedy of the Year 2015?
 
Obama's are seriously the best first family of all time bar none - https://amp.twimg.com/v/549ad94b-1661-425e-97d8-1bd8f5a6b9af
That old lady is pretty awesome.
So basically Rubio needs EVERYTHING to align for him
before we can even begin to think about him winning a state? Isn't that....ridiculous?
The main thing that needs to align for him is Kasich dropping out and Cruz staying in as a spoiler for Trump.

Polling has been pretty sparse for Super Tuesday states and I have no idea how solid these pollsters that have done some are; but from looking at the most recent/2016 polls he would win Minnesota, it would be a three-way competitive race in Arkansas and Oklahoma, he'd be competitive head-to-head with Trump in Virginia.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Clinton's Morgan Freeman ad running in New York media market. Just saw it. Wow.

Also lol @ Morning Joe today. Let's spend 30 seconds on the caucuses. And next let's talk about Trump for the next four hours.
 
The current candidates are so lame.

Did you miss Bernie's basketball skills?

I am trying to create a product about all of this and using the people that should be going for it in the end.

Luckily jeb was a low part of my ideas and not any main parts so I lucked out on that call an didnt get any work done so far on the jeb.

I haven't included sanders yet, I do have robio and cruz as a decent part while trump/hillary make up the biggest parts.

Am I doing it right, do I need to make sanders a bigger part in case he actually wins. Do I need to put my bet more on rubio or cruz? Either way, for now I think I am decently covered using trump as a main point even though he may not end up president it is ok.

I'd like some decent opinions on this. if you were to bank your product percentage wise today as to who will be popular and more known come election time

trump
sanders
hillary
rubio
cruz
jeb

how would you stack your percentages out of 100 percent?

If you're going to include someone like Cruz, and especially someone like Jeb, there's no reason not to have Sanders. I always considered Sanders to be on par for Jeb in terms of chances--that is to say, I knew from the start another Bush wasn't winning office short of everyone else cratering. Sanders success at this point is dependent on Hillary's mistakes. If she messes up he will continue to rise.
 
Clinton's Morgan Freeman ad running in New York media market. Just saw it. Wow.

Also lol @ Morning Joe today. Let's spend 30 seconds on the caucuses. And next let's talk about Trump for the next four hours.

Mika and Joe have dumped Bernie, they are Morning Trump now
 

CCS

Banned
Do we think the media turning on Bernie will make much of a difference, given the siege mentality against the mainstream media that his supporters seem to have cultivated?
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
No, because Bernie had a 20% chance to win in the rosiest of forecasts; Scarborough is just a desiccated 90s Republican who holds a grudge against Bill Clinton (who stomped multiple mudholes across his party).

Let's see what the headlines are on the WASHINGTON FREE BEACON just because I don't think it's fair to say the whole media has turned against Bernie.

Hillary Clinton Notches Win in Nevada After New Hampshire Loss
Clinton projected winner of caucus by narrow margin

RNC Ad Calls Out Clinton’s Complicated History With the Truth

DNC Chair Tries to Defend Superdelegates to Rachel Maddow (lol debbie)

Clinton Teams Up With Pro-Tehran Lobby For Fundraiser
Will fundraise with allies of group pushing to kill anti-terror laws

Morning Joe Panel Dumbfounded Hillary Clinton Leaving Nevada Before End of the Caucus
 
Do we think the media turning on Bernie will make much of a difference, given the siege mentality against the mainstream media that his supporters seem to have cultivated?

I don't think media makes too much of a difference. Bernie built his support largely without media attention, so his having or not having it probably isn't that crucial. Either way, we'll know if Bernie still has a chance or not after Super Tuesday.
 

danm999

Member
I doubt it, it just seems like an incredibly nasty heel turn over something they shouldn't have hyped up so much in the first place.

If Clinton had lost I've no doubt they'd be running "CLINTON COLLAPSING IN CRISIS" stories anyway but just the puerile way this stuff gets covered bugs me.
 

CCS

Banned
Yeah, that's pretty much what I figured. Looking forward to Super Tuesday, hopefully it'll go well enough for Clinton that we'll be able to effectively put this race to bed and start looking forward to November in earnest.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
That Hillary avatar looks very Madonna-Vogueesque. Come on, OrangeGrayBlue. Strike a pose.

That song is funny because the references in Madonna's cheese rap are so dated I don't even think modern audiences know what she is talking about.
 
I don't think media makes too much of a difference. Bernie built his support largely without media attention, so his having or not having it probably isn't that crucial. Either way, we'll know if Bernie still has a chance or not after Super Tuesday.
I'd say they shape expectations, so in a way, it probably helps I guess if he outperforms in the coming SC.

I think it can also lead to complacency - something that Clinton will need to work to avoid - in voting base.

I think there was positive coverage in the run-up to the first couple of primaries - that may have helped - and heading into Nevada - the latter of which was probably bad in building up expectation.

I can't remember where I read it, but there was commentary about how Sanders campaign of big rallies is not designed for a multi-state race, so it will be interesting for sure. After SC, he can no longer spend all his time, money and focus building up name recognition and traveling around campuses in single states.
 
That Hillary avatar looks very Madonna-Vogueesque. Come on, OrangeGrayBlue. Strike a pose.

That song is funny because the references in Madonna's cheese rap are so dated I don't even think modern audiences know what she is talking about.

We have Queen FKA Twigs to carry the torch now.
shameless plug

I'd say they shape expectations, so in a way, it probably helps I guess if he outperforms in the coming SC.

I think it can also lead to complacency - something that Clinton will need to work to avoid - in voting base.

I think there was positive coverage in the run-up to the first couple of primaries - that may have helped - and heading into Nevada - the latter of which was probably bad in building up expectation.

I can't remember where I read it, but there was commentary about how Sanders campaign of big rallies is not designed for a multi-state race, so it will be interesting for sure. After SC, he can no longer spend all his time, money and focus building up name recognition and traveling around campuses in single states.

I think you're right about the multi-state disadvantage. Bernie has done a great job of closing gaps state-by-state so far, but I'm not sure if he can keep that pattern going after South Carolina.
 
Cruz has been saying too... There are built for super Tuesday! Look out!

Bernie was definitely helped by being able to have hundreds of events in one state. But he has the money to compete on super Tuesday, SC will be all about how he performs with the black population. If he gets 30-40% vote from them expect his team to tout it as a win.
 
I guess contradicting my last post, now that I think about it, Trump's campaign is built on holding huge rallies where he says outrageous things to get media attention that's translated into a 50-state strategy. :/

But he's also Donald Trump. Celebrity jerk.
If he wins three states or less on Super Tuesday, I think that's all she wrote.
I'm guessing this excludes Vermont.
 
Cruz has been saying too... There are built for super Tuesday! Look out!

Bernie was definitely helped by being able to have hundreds of events in one state. But he has the money to compete on super Tuesday, SC will be all about how he performs with the black population. If he gets 30-40% vote from them expect his team to tout it as a win.

Yeah, Super Tuesday performance will largely determine how much fundraising he rakes in to compete in the remaining states. If he wins three states or less on Super Tuesday, I think that's all she wrote.
 

danm999

Member
He really needs to kill it in Mass. Most delegate heavy state that's likely to go to him on Super Tuesday.

Something has to offset the hurt in places like Texas and Georgia.
 
Politico suddenly seems pretty eager to throw Sanders under the bus.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/bernie-sanders-college-students-219520
Last August, Bernie Sanders packed 12,000 people into a pavilion at the University of Washington, while 3,000 more couldn’t fit and were stuck outside. Later in the fall, he won Western Illinois University’s mock presidential election by a landslide. Last week, his campaign opened a local office just off the Michigan State University campus, calling it a “beacon of hope” for its supporters.

But there’s just one problem for the surging senator: When primary or caucus day arrives in each of these college towns, as well as dozens more from Maine to Hawaii, many of the students Sanders hopes can help carry him to the White House won’t be there. They’ll be in Cancun. Or Florida. Or back home.

Call it Bernie’s Spring Break blues.

This year’s Spring Break schedule clashes directly with a large swath of primaries and caucuses, a conflict that comes at the worst of possible times for Sanders, who crushed his rival Hillary Clinton among young and first-time voters in the exit polls in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. The Democratic race is about to enter a four-week stretch where more than half of the party’s delegates will be awarded. But as the voting gets under way, one campus after another is closing down for weeklong breaks. In all, more than a half million college students from 14 states will be on spring break at the same time that the presidential campaign train chugs onto their campuses, according to a POLITICO analysis of the March 5 to March 26 primary and caucus states.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz, ha impact.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
So, bets on the percentage of tickets the RNC uses for paid Rubio shills on Thursday? It is going to be like a Microsoft E3 conference in there.
 

Diablos

Member
Eventually Rubio is going to be one of the last three candidates and he'll still tout third place as a victory.
As the race goes on won't a lot of late states that rack up the delegate count benefit Rubio? Cruz is the one with the lowest ceiling it seems...

In other words after Super Tuesday would Rubio still be able to win enough delegates to surpass Trump?
 
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