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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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R

RastaMentality

Banned
Nate Silver on empirical precedents that'll be violated this cycle:
e.g.
- No candidate has lost after getting a post-IA endorsement surge like Rubio.
- No candidate has gotten one after winning so little.
Click to expand...

Endorsements are kinda irrelevant on both sides unless it's for the underdog.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
RastaMentality said:
Nate Silver on empirical precedents that'll be violated this cycle:


Endorsements are kinda irrelevant on both sides unless it's for the underdog.
Click to expand...

I think I heard that every candidate that won both NH and SC went on win the Republican Nomination.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Oblivion said:
2.22.16.jpg


http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/sanders-turnout-revolution-inauspicious-start

Dems are doing worse than they were in 2008, while Republicans are breaking new records in turnout.

Somebody console me.
Click to expand...

Well, let's take a rational look. The last time the GOP was truly excited to vote was in 2000 with Bush and McCain. 2008 was just sad. 2012 they held their nose for Romney but never liked the not-Romneys and it was inevitable.

So it's been 16 years since the GOP has had a real race that they cared about. So yeah, they're going to break records given population growth.

As for the Dems, 2008 was so different. You had the first legit female who had a chance, you had a dude who the GOP wishes Marco Rubio was, and then you had Obama who was the first African American with a real chance and was super inspirational.

And this was along the backdrop of a complete clusterfuck of a war where 3k soldiers died, Iranian's rise as a result, Katrina clusterfuck, a President who was despised nationally so much so that 2006 the Dems romped the midterms, and the economy was already tanking as the housing bubble had already burst.

I mean 2008 was record breaking for a reason. There was both anger, hope, and 3 well liked candidates in which 2 would have broken major barriers.

And there's no correlation between primary turnout and general election results, so don't worry.
 
B

Big Green Anus

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Essentially, the creation of a government-owned insurance company that would compete in the market to make healthcare more affordable.
Click to expand...
Wow, that sounds a lot more of a bigger deal than I initially thought. It actually makes me excited to vote for Hillary in November. Is there a reason why Obama did not try to reapply the public option when he won reelection?
 
U

User 85168

Banned
Oblivion said:
2.22.16.jpg


http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/sanders-turnout-revolution-inauspicious-start

Dems are doing worse than they were in 2008, while Republicans are breaking new records in turnout.

Somebody console me.
Click to expand...

One possible theory regarding turnout is that Republicans have a highly contested primary (just like 2008 for Dems). 2016 Democratic Primary is nothing like 2008, as for how close this race really is. Many Democrats don't see a reason to turn out for a primary.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Big Green Anus said:
Wow, that sounds a lot more of a bigger deal than I initially thought. It actually makes me excited to vote for Hillary in November. Is there a reason why Obama did not try to reapply the public option when he won reelection?
Click to expand...

Keep in mind such a change will still require the House and Senate to change hands. The senate has a distinct possibility of happening, but the house...
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Suikoguy said:
Keep in mind such a change will still require the House and Senate to change hands. The senate has a distinct possibility of happening, but the house...
Click to expand...

well, not necessarily - it can be implemented at the state level through a waiver program that's starting next year, irrespective of what Congress decides to do
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
eBay Huckster said:
well, not necessarily - it can be implemented at the state level through a waiver program that's starting next year, irrespective of what Congress decides to do
Click to expand...

Oh, forgot about that. Still, unless enough states can cooperate, then they can't leverage well enough in most states to make a difference.
 
M

Maledict

Member
'affordable health care is a basic human right' - top of her page on healthcare.

Mind you, I think she's been saying that since 1993.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
I'm not really sure what you're supplanting the word "affordable" with?

As far as I'm aware, and in the systems I've lived under, public healthcare systems still entail out-of-pocket costs for certain aspects of them.
 
J

Jack The Nipper

Banned
Joe Shlabotnik said:
I don't entirely know what you're referring to, but if you're making something election-related for release close to the actual general election, no one is going to be in the public consciousness except the Presidential candidates and their running mates. So likely Clinton, Trump or Rubio, ????? and ??????.

Once a candidate drops out neither the media nor the public gives a shit about them anymore.
Click to expand...

took my bets on clinton and trump... throw in a few jokes with the others though.

Game is about becoming, running for president.
 
Tesseract

Tesseract

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
I'm not really sure what you're supplanting the word "affordable" with?

As far as I'm aware, and in the systems I've lived under, public healthcare systems still entail out-of-pocket costs for certain aspects of them.
Click to expand...

its leniency to the aca dissuades me because the aca laws have failed purple states (like florida). i'm not sure democrats have the muster to build on obama's plan, we'll see.

i'm just venting, that guy who died because of the ambulance bill upsets me.

*edit* geez i'm tired
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
Do y'all have any issues being friends with people with certain ideologies? Like people with homophobic/racist/sexist leanings.

I had a friend ardently defend Pacquiao's statements and his IG post about how gays should be stoned (with "it's his opinion!" retorts), but I don't really know if I should continue to be friends with him (considering they don't know I'm gay). I feel like anyone I ask would say something completely different had it been racial rather than gay related.
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
RastaMentality said:
Do y'all have any issues being friends with people with certain ideologies? Like people with homophobic/racist/sexist leanings.

I had a friend ardently defend Pacquiao's statements and his IG post about how gays should be stoned (with "it's his opinion!" retorts), but I don't really know if I should continue to be friends with him (considering they don't know I'm gay). I feel like anyone I ask would say something completely different had it been racial rather than gay related.
Click to expand...

You're basically asking if other people tend to have problems with those who think they should have less rights or be treated in a more discriminatory way. The answer is going to be Yes. Even if I'm not the person they vehemently oppose, by virtue of having a soul I know it's wrong to hate people and treat them worse just because they are Black, or Gay, or Muslim. I can only imagine how hard it would be to become friends with someone then have them drop some bigoted shit on you out of nowhere and make you question your entire friendship.

Pacquiao not only said gays should be stoned, he flat out said he thought they were "worse than animals". There is nothing that he said that is defensible. The question then becomes can you be friends with someone who thinks gay people are below normal humans? I don't think I could.
 
C

CCS

Banned
neurosisxeno said:
You're basically asking if other people tend to have problems with those who think they should have less rights or be treated in a more discriminatory way. The answer is going to be Yes. Even if I'm not the person they vehemently oppose, by virtue of having a soul I know it's wrong to hate people and treat them worse just because they are Black, or Gay, or Muslim. I can only imagine how hard it would be to become friends with someone then have them drop some bigoted shit on you out of nowhere and make you question your entire friendship.

Pacquiao not only said gays should be stoned, he flat out said he thought they were "worse than animals". There is nothing that he said that is defensible. The question then becomes can you be friends with someone who thinks gay people are below normal humans? I don't think I could.
Click to expand...

Basically this. I am friends with some people who have questionable views on certain issues, but generally that's more due to unconscious prejudice and failing to be aware of privilege rather than outright bigotry. If someone I knew made bigoted comments which clearly came from hate rather than ignorance, I don't think I could be friends with them. Apart from anything else, irrational hatred isn't an attractive personality trait.
 
M

Mrs. Manky

Banned
PantherLotus said:
If Bernie forcing Hillary to the left on the economy and on expanded Obamacare while strengthening her (supposed) commitments to racial justice and equality is the only thing he actually accomplishes in this election where she was always going to win ... then his candidacy will have been a major, major success.
Click to expand...

He pulled her to the left on economy and on Obamacare.

BLM pulled them both towards social justice.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
Texas Tribune (Feb12-19) poll:

Texas:
Clinton 55%
Sanders 44%

http://www.texastribune.org/2016/02/23/uttt-poll-clinton-still-leads-texas-margin-has-nar/

Cruz 37%
Trump 29%
Rubio 15%
.... is a mess - 6%
Kasich 5%
Carson 4%
http://www.texastribune.org/2016/02/23/uttt-poll-cruz-leads-trump-texas-rubio-lags-behind/

Ohio Quinnipiac: Feb 16-20
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-...rsity-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2325

Clinton 55%
Sanders 40%

Trump 31%
Kasich 26
Cruz 21
Rubio 13
Carson 5
 
C

CCS

Banned
Black Republican said:
Texas Tribune poll:

Texas:
Clinton 55%
Sanders 44%

http://www.texastribune.org/2016/02/23/uttt-poll-clinton-still-leads-texas-margin-has-nar/

Cruz 37%
Donald "When was the last time you saw a Chevrolet in Tokyo?" Trump 29%
Rubio 15%
Bush 6%
Kasich 5%
Carson 4%
http://www.texastribune.org/2016/02/23/uttt-poll-cruz-leads-trump-texas-rubio-lags-behind/

Ohio Quinnipiac:

Clinton 55%
Sanders 40%
Click to expand...

Serious question: Is Sanders leading in any of the biggest (say, top 10) states by delegates?
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Black Republican said:
Texas Tribune (Feb12-19) poll:

Texas:
Clinton 55%
Sanders 44%

http://www.texastribune.org/2016/02/23/uttt-poll-clinton-still-leads-texas-margin-has-nar/

Cruz 37%
Trump 29%
Rubio 15%
.... is a mess - 6%
Kasich 5%
Carson 4%
http://www.texastribune.org/2016/02/23/uttt-poll-cruz-leads-trump-texas-rubio-lags-behind/

Ohio Quinnipiac: Feb 16-20
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-...rsity-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2325

Clinton 55%
Sanders 40%

Trump 31%
Kasich 26
Cruz 21
Rubio 13
Carson 5
Click to expand...

Nice nice, I like it.
 
D

danm999

Member
CCS said:
Hmm, good shout. Though even that one is pretty tight.
Click to expand...

Actually now looking at the Primary schedule its the 15th biggest. Still that's the most delegate heavy state I can find where he's given a poll lead recently.

Or maybe there's a really far off one but that's probably going to be too hard to predict until we get closer to it.
 
C

CCS

Banned
neurosisxeno said:
He was behind in Michigan but some mediocre polls in NJ say he'll probably take it. I'm surprised nobody is kinda freaking that he's only 11 back in Texas. I expected him to be down ~20 in TX.
Click to expand...

Meh, give me a second poll saying that then I'll start to worry a bit.
 
D

danm999

Member
Texas apparently assigns almost half its pledged delegates to the statewide vote totals so does closing the gap from +20 to +10 help Bernie much.

Edit; ok weird apparently they used to have a caucus and a primary in Texas which is why you have two ways of assigning delegates there. No idea how that translates to delegate tally though.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Texas poll is closer than PPP. So maybe he is making better inroads with Hispanics. They do skew younger.

Late edit: On further inspection, not really. She's still winning Hispanics there 60 to 37, which isn't as resounding as her lead among black voters, but is basically the same as in 2008.

danm999 said:
Texas apparently assigns almost half its pledged delegates to the statewide vote totals so does closing the gap from +20 to +10 help Bernie much.
Click to expand...
Sure?
I thought it was proportional for the statewide too?
 
D

danm999

Member
Apparently Republicans put WTA thresholds for states in after 2012 to avoid long, damaging primaries like the one Romney got caught in.

Bet they're regretting that decision now.
 
C

CCS

Banned
danm999 said:
Apparently Republicans put WTA thresholds for states in after 2012 to avoid long, damaging primaries like the one Romney got caught in.

Bet they're regretting that decision now.
Click to expand...

Somewhat hoist on their own petard there it is fair to say.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I think the lesson is for the national committees to stop trying to screw with the process. Debbie Dumbbutt also tried and almost screwed herself.
 
C

Cerium

Member
Rubio is planning to "go nuclear" on Cruz.

While Bush himself hasn’t yet settled on endorsing Rubio, those close to the former governor – whose relationship with the senator had grown tense in his campaign’s final weeks – expect him to get there. If he does endorse, Rubio would be expected to land the support of still-uncommitted Bush family loyalists like Jack Oliver, a veteran Republican Party fundraiser.

To some in the GOP leadership, Bush’s exit from the contest has reignited hopes that a fractured party establishment will eventually unite. Still, eating into Rubio’s vote share is John Kasich, a moderate Ohio governor who is charting a course through the Midwest – if he survives long enough to contest primaries like Michigan’s, to be held on March 8.

One senior party operative on Monday evening described “building irritation” with Kasich among GOP elders for staying in the race when has such a narrow path to the nomination – but said there was no consensus on the best way to force him out.

...

To dislodge Trump, though, Rubio must first defeat another rival: Cruz. People briefed on Rubio’s game plan say he’s planning to launch an all-out assault on the Texas senator, labeling him as a dishonest figure while appealing to evangelicals, a group that Cruz had been counting on – a strategy Rubio used with success in South Carolina. “Watch Rubio go nuclear on Cruz,” one source briefed on the plans said.

If Rubio is able to go after Cruz effectively, many in the party hierarchy envision the makings of a one-on-one race. They are hopeful that Cruz will find himself stretched by fighting a two-front war against Trump and Rubio, both of whom have targeted the Texas senator in recent days and who are likely to do so in Thursday’s GOP debate.

“Cruz now strikes me as the candidate in the most vulnerable position, because his outsider message is being drowned out by Trump and his core constituency – evangelicals – don’t seem any more drawn to him than they are to Trump or Rubio,” said Steven Law, the president and CEO of American Crossroads, a prominent Republican group founded by Karl Rove.
Click to expand...
 
D

danm999

Member
What the hell can Rubio even really do to Cruz. They'll get into a slap fight on stage and Trump will pick both of them up by the scruffs of their necks and throw them off.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Plinko said:
This is a tactical error by Team Rubio.
Click to expand...
I don't agree. He can't get trump out of the race and attacking trump will have trump demolish him. But if he gets Cruz out he wins anyway so he might as well destroy Cruz. Lower risk of collateral damage.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Y2Kev said:
I don't agree. He can't get trump out of the race and attacking trump will have trump demolish him. But if he gets Cruz out he wins anyway so he might as well destroy Cruz. Lower risk of collateral damage.
Click to expand...

Cruz isn't going anywhere before Texas, and I argue that Cruz's voters are on the edge of being just as anti-establishment as Trump's.
 
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